Sanusi Lamido Sanusi: Confessions Of A Stalker

://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/images/stories/people/sanusi. *I published this piece in my Sunday column in NEXT newspaper before Lamido’s appointment and subsequent confirmation. Some Villagers are still discussing Lamido and committing the same faux pas I analyze here. Hopefully, this should broaden their perspectives on the matter. ============================================ I met his mind in Vancouver sometime in the summer of 1998 and have stalked him ever since. Online that is! I was then doing research on representations of Islam in Nigerian popular culture. Sanusi Lamido Sanusi popped up on Google.The essay of his I read at the time was powerful enough to make me pursue his name further in more scholarly and restricted search engines. More essays of his popped up and I was hooked.I was also embarrassed that I ...Read the full article.

[Anto]

We pray SLS left rabid religious extrermism behind when he assumed the office of CBN governor.

In any developing country he could not have passed Senate confirmation for the job in view of his past depositions on religion. But he had to be confirmed because today we have an excessively strong centre (unitary government) to whose leader (however capable) all must pay deference and homage to get along.
I hope SLS realises early enough that the CBN is an institution rooted on secularism; and that given the country's religious history any body poaching on the secularist roots of Nigeria is fit to be charged with TREASON.

[papas]

I dont understand when they say this guy an intellectual. I have combed the web endlessly since he was announced as CBN Governor, and I can't find anything worthwhile on him. There are no documented evidence of research he has carried out on the issues assailing Nigeria economically. The guy has no work experience with any of the Bretton Woods financial institutions or UN Development Agencies. The farthest he has gone in search of knowledge is Sudan(a failed state).He has just one miserly M.sc degree in Economics, serious countries demand at least a PHD, with specialization in something related to the economy. This guy is a paperback compared to some of Nigeria's technocrats spread all over the globe. The only bright spot in his career is the MDship of First bank, but he has not even been tested at that post. But in Nigeria all of this do not matter, Mediocrity is our stock in trade..

[Kay Soyemi (Esq.)]

"I must confess to a certain southern Nigerian arrogance in my initial, startled encounters with Sanusi’s mind. ... Part of my initial reaction was: who the heck is this Northerner (read: feudal conservative Muslim who shouldn’t know more than the Koran!) with such a compelling mastery of European – mostly atheistic – humanist philosophy? And then to discover that this great cosmopolitan mind comes from the purest of northern oligarchy: the son of a former emir of Kano! The more reason he ought to have turned out a bearded sharianist!"

"My initial attitude betrays a certain Nigerian problem: the recourse to comforting ethno-religious stereotypes and the unwillingness to move beyond them because we risk encountering evidence to the contrary."

Oga Pius,

Many thanks for these candid words, I wonder how many other Nigerians can be honest enough to say they do not hold jaundiced views of other Nigerians outside of their immediate tribal stock or religious leanings? It is this head in the sand ostrich attitude of ours that allows us to pardon known thieves and embezlers that comes from our villages and tribal stocks and villify those who are from other leanings!

I have no opinion on the man Sanusi, save the taste of the pudding is in the eating! Soludo was very good for Nigeria at the time he came on board, but I recollect the same bruhaha about his mostly having been schooled in Nsuka and not outside the shores of 9ja!

Shame he's gone, but let's give the same benefit of doubt to the man Sanusi without crucifying because he comes from Kano and completes a lopsidedness in an abberation called Federal Character.

If Nigerians wants to moan about the debilitating effects of federal character and proclaims a desire for meritocracy, then it's time to stop looking at this man's religion and tribal stock as considerations.

Anyway, Nigerians are known for making empty noises and hiding their heads cos "mama dey for house, papa dey for house...I no wan die"

Those who have a truck with the appointment of Sanusi knows what to do - get out and demonstrate on the streets outside Aso Rock!

[commoner]

Originally Posted by Kay Soyemi (Esq.)

Those who have a truck with the appointment of Sanusi knows what to do - get out and demonstrate on the streets outside Aso Rock!

Better still, these people could apply for one of the many high level, technical and non-technical job openings that Sanusi needs to fill urgently. This is one sure way they can influence Sanusi's decision making while at CBN.

Internet warfare by habitual warriors is simply not going to cut it.

[Suleimana]

It is shocking that some of us still think that you cannot be useful to your country unless you have served in some "Bretton Woods financial institutions or UN Development Agencies". Fela must be turning in his grave!


Some even argue that SLS has no experience. Obama has experience running a country abi? Sometimes all that is required is a sincerity of purpose and a good head. All the seventy-year-old running our government today are dying under the weight of experience. Look at our good friend Rilwan Lukman- He has experienced two lives as some more and yet look where the petroleum industry is today.

When I read Pius's article (http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/...ness-nige.html), I was certain that many of us will be deeply touched, that we will recognize a part of us that frequently falls prey to 'gutterlect' and we will commence the difficult task of seeing our country men differently, positively. With a hundred and seventy eight miserable hits, I see that people just don't care. As far as some people are concerned, Lamido is and will not amount to anything more than a "hausa-fulani" and a sharia advocate. Ofcourse hausa-fulani is as much a tribe or an ethnic group as is yoruba-bini or Ijaw-Ishekiri and sharia is not about oppressing women but these people don't know, don't care.

[tonsoyo]

Oga Pius,
It would have helped a great deal if you had made references to some of his writings highlighting the relevant parts that informed your opinion of him. Rather than this blanket appraisal without reference.

Anyway, after reading an article of Sanusi Lamido posted by SKANBROY yesterday on his response to Chu Okongwu about debt repayment, it has soften my stance on him, I am also willing to give him a chance.

Even though I still believe that Soludo would still be the better guy for the job at this point, but I equally believe that Sanusi is bringing two desirable and important qualities to the table, namely, he is a man of great conviction and he is not afraid to speak the truth to power.
These may well compensate for what he lacks in the other areas.

I wish him well and hope he succeeds.

[uyilawani]

Mr. Adesanmi's essay is the most compelling argument for any Nigerian Government appointee I have seen in a long time. His persuasion power is clearly evident and Lamido Sanusi should be lucky to have anyone characterize him and his appointment the way Mr. Adesanmi has done. The futility of this defense, in my opinion is that it nearly obviates the need for a genuine examination of Mr. Sanusi's qualification or even more, the availablity or otherwise of more qualified persons.

[akuluouno]

Villagers,

I think SLS is unfortunate to have been caught up in the Nigerian religio-ethnic bellyaching. The man is a perfect gentleman, banker, calm, technocrat and fit to head the CBN if even he possessed only a Bachelors degree.
I have always said that given the nature and powers that the Abacha constitution of 1999 conferred on the Nigerian presidency, the holder of that office has plenipotentiary powers to appoint and disappoint any one he likes
He has appointed SLS, lets give him benefit of doubt. If you do not like it go and protest on the streets of Abuja or better still take up arms With 140 million Nigerians, we can do away with 20 million a parliamentarian from the North

[quietswami]

Time to move the debate on. SLS's monetary and economic perspectives or policies should be the basis for any assessment of his suitability for the role. Just as religious, racial persuasions or otherwise of Bernanke or Mervyn King hold little relevance so should be the approach in this case. Prejudiced biases however dissimilated does no one any credit.

[tonsoyo]

Originally Posted by uyilawani

Mr. Adesanmi's essay is the most compelling argument for any Nigerian Government appointee I have seen in a long time. His persuasion power is clearly evident and Lamido Sanusi should be lucky to have anyone characterize him and his appointment the way Mr. Adesanmi has done. The futility of this defense, in my opinion is that it nearly obviates the need for a genuine examination of Mr. Sanusi's qualification or even more, the availablity or otherwise of more qualified persons.

Mr. Pius Adesanmi is one of my most respected writers, he is witty and highly intelligent. But the lack of reference to some of the writings of Sanusi Lamido that informed his opinion took away the intellectualism of the writing and made it look more like a hatchet job, even as beautiful as the appraisal his, it could have been written about anyone, even Abacha, who is not only aversed to writing but hated anything written.
References or quotes is what makes the difference.

An article of Sanusi posted by SKANBROY yesterday even without his own comments did a better job of convincing me.

I hope Oga Pius takes note of this. I know he is a totally honest man.

[katampe]

In a task of nation building, the task that involves building national institutions, Nigeria needs narrowly focused economists that are unencumbered by the interests in political activities or commentaries, economists that are original thinkers and have papers to their names to boot.

A scan through the career profile of economists below, I mean those in Obama's administration gives a sense of the brain power that currently powers the American economy. Nigeria deserves nothing less being a third world country that has many things to fix to rise up fast, especially when we have no institutions.

If Yar Adua's motivation was merit, then there are many accomplished Nigerians overseas from other parts of the country and also others within the country that should have been given the chance or opportunity. Sanusi is not our best choice .If anyone can, please they should point us to papers he has prepared on fiscal or monetary policy or other research interests strictly focused on economics.

We know Wole Soyinka and his likes, even though went on to become public commentators distinguished themselves creditably in their fields. The whole notion that Pius Adesanmi stalked Sanusi and readjusted his lens on his earlier notion of northerners capability does not cut with some of us. We have to see the beef somewhere.

For some of us, we went to schools with northerners that are very smart people. We are looking beyond ethnic stereotypes here.The guy did not earn it, period!

There are reasons why most people are advocating for someone more cerebrally gifted and with competing personal biographies of economists in the west like those in Obama's administration and now leading the charge of economic activities:

Peter Richard Orszag (born December 16, 1968) is an American economist who is currently the 37th Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Barack Obama. He was Director of the Congressional Budget Office when nominated.
Orszag was born to parents Steven A. Orszag and Reba Karp in Boston, Massachussetts and grew up in nearby Lexington.^[1]. After graduating from Phillips Exeter Academy with high honors (1987), he earned an A.B. summa cum laude in economics from Princeton University in 1991, and a M.Sc. (1992) and a Ph.D. (1997) in economics from the London School of Economics. He was a Marshall Scholar 1991-1992, and is a member of Phi Beta Kappa.^[2] He is also a member of the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies of Science.
Economists Alan Blinder (who taught him at Princeton) and Joseph Stiglitz were his mentors early in life, and later Robert Rubi

Lawrence Henry Summers (born November 30, 1954) is an American economist and the Director of the White House's National Economic Council for President Barack Obama.^[1] Summers is the Charles W. Eliot University Professor at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. He is the 1993 recipient of the John Bates Clark Medal for his work in several fields of economics and was Secretary of the Treasury for the last year and a half of the Clinton Administration. Summers also served as the 27th President of Harvard University from 2001 to 2006. Summers resigned as Harvard's president in the wake of a no-confidence vote by Harvard faculty that resulted in part from Summers' conflict with Cornel West as well as a 2005 speech in which he suggested that women's under-representation in the top levels of academia is due to a "different availability of aptitude at the high end." Summers has also been criticized by some liberals for the centrist economic policies he advocated as Treasury Secretary and in later writings.^[2] Since returning to government in the Obama administration, he has come under fire for his numerous financial ties to Wall Street.
Born in New Haven, Connecticut, on November 30, 1954, Summers is the son of two economists, Robert Summers and Anita Summers, who are both professors at the University of Pennsylvania, as well as the nephew of two Nobel laureates in economics: Paul Samuelson (sibling of Robert Summers, who, following an older brother's example, changed the family name from Samuelson to Summers) and Kenneth Arrow (Anita Summers's brother). He spent most of his childhood in Penn Valley, Pennsylvania, a suburb of Philadelphia, where he attended Harriton High School.
At age 16, he entered the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), where he originally intended to study physics but soon switched to economics due to his strong interest in the matter (S.B., 1975). He was also an active member of the MIT debating team. He attended Harvard University as a graduate student (Ph.D., 1982), where he studied under economist Martin Feldstein. In 1983, at age 28, Summers became one of the youngest tenured professors in Harvard's history. Summers has three children (older twin daughters Ruth and Pamela and son Harry) by his first wife, Victoria Perry. In December 2005, Summers married English professor Elisa New, who had three daughters from a previous marriage. He currently owns two houses, one in D.C. and one in Brookline, Massachusetts.

Timothy Franz Geithner (pronounced /ˈɡaɪtnər/; born August 18, 1961), is the 75th and current United States Secretary of the Treasury, serving under President Barack Obama. He was previously the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Geithner's position includes a large role in directing the nation's economic response to the financial crisis which began after December 2007. Specific tasks include directing the allocation of $350 billion of Wall Street bailout funds. He is currently dealing with multiple high visibility issues, including the survival of the automobile industry, the restructuring of banks, financial institutions and insurance companies, recovery of the mortgage market, demands for protectionism, Obama's new tax proposals, and relations with foreign governments that are dealing with similar crises
Geithner was born in Brooklyn, New York.^[2] He spent most of his childhood living outside the United States, including present-day Zimbabwe, Zambia, India, and Thailand where he completed high school at International School Bangkok.^[3] He attended Camp Becket-in-the-Berkshires-for-boys, a summer camp located in western Massachusetts. He then attended Dartmouth College, graduating with a B.A. in government and Asian studies in 1983.^[4] He earned an M.A. in international economics and East Asian studies from Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies in 1985.^[4][5] He has studied Chinese^[4] and Japanese.^[6]
Geithner's paternal grandfather, Paul Herman Geithner (1902–1972), emigrated with his parents from Zeulenroda, Germany to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania in 1908.^[7] His father, Peter F. Geithner, is the director of the Asia program at the Ford Foundation in New York. During the early 1980s, Peter Geithner oversaw the Ford Foundation's microfinance programs in Indonesia being developed by S. Ann Dunham-Soetoro, President Barack Obama's mother, and they met in person at least once.^[8] Timothy Geithner's mother, Deborah Moore Geithner, is a pianist and piano teacher in Larchmont, New York where his parents currently reside. Geithner's maternal grandfather, Charles F. Moore, was an adviser to President Dwight D. Eisenhower and served as Vice President of Public Relations from 1952-1964 for Ford Motor Company.^[9]

[QUOTE]

[katampe]

continued ....

Directly below is the guy that took over from Alan Greenspan

Bernanke was educated at East Elementary, J. V. Martin Junior High, and Dillon High School, where he was class valedictorian. At age 11, Bernanke won the state spelling bee competition but finished 26th overall at the national competition in Washington, tripping up on the word “edelweiss.” Bernanke also taught himself calculus, edited the school newspaper, and achieved a near-perfect SAT score of 1590 out of 1600.^[10] He was also an All-State saxophonist, playing in the school’s marching band.^[11]
Bernanke worked construction on a new hospital and waited tables at a restaurant at nearby South of the Border before leaving for college.^{[3] [12]}During the summer, he attended Camp Ramah located in New England.^{[citation needed]}

[edit] Young adult

Bernanke spent his undergraduate years at Harvard University and graduated with a BA in economics summa cum laude in 1975. To support himself throughout college, he worked during the summers at South of the Border, a roadside attraction in his hometown of Dillon.^[3][13] He received a PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1979. His thesis was named "Long-term commitments, dynamic optimization, and the business cycle" and his thesis adviser was Stanley Fischer.^[14]

[edit] Academic and government career

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...ke_4-10-09.jpg http://en.wikipedia.org/skins-1.5/co...gnify-clip.png
Bernanke meeting with United States President Barack Obama.


Bernanke taught at the Stanford Graduate School of Business from 1979 until 1985, was a visiting professor at New York University and went on to become a tenured professor at Princeton University in the Department of Economics. He chaired that department from 1996 until September 2002, when he went on public service leave. He resigned his position at Princeton July 1, 2005. Dr. Bernanke served as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2002 to 2005, and was Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, from June 2005 to January 2006. On February 1, 2006, he was appointed as a member of the Board for a fourteen-year term and to a four-year term as Chairman.^[15]
In one of his first speeches, entitled “Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn’t Happen Here,” he outlined what has been referred to as the Bernanke Doctrine. ^[16]
In view of his current position as Fed chair, Bernanke also sits on the newly established Financial Stability Oversight Board that oversees the Troubled Assets Relief Program

:d


Where is the beef? I think we need to see the "COW" first and foremost.

Please, let these matters be.

Nigeria is not at that level yet. So, don't expect to get that from experienced Nigerian 'bankers'.

We are still in the age of 'resume' by 'grapevine' news.

We have been advised not to use everything we see on Wiki, but to rely on word of mouth 'resumes' of Nigerian experienced 'bankers' with over 35 years of debt acquisition and meritorious services in advanced fee fraud/money laundering schemes.

To think that an economist would be such for over 35 years and not so much as a line concerning his education explains one of the major reasons why Nigeria remains one of the failing economies in the world.

Economists by words of mouths only and nothing to show but good English, 3 wives and 12 children, all to be fed by the Nigerian economy.

Who is who in the world of banking. Since we cannot use Wikipedia, let us use the real resource:

"The Banker"
Global Financial Intelligence Since 1926

Profile of a Ghanaian Banker.

http://www.thebanker.com/news/fullst...ah-Wiredu.html

Profile of a Croatian Banker(Central Banker of the year 2009)

http://www.thebanker.com/news/fullst...Year_2009.html

Central Banker of the Year/ Asia: Fai-Nan Perng, Governor, Central Bank of China (Taiwan)

http://www.thebanker.com/news/fullst..._Taiwan__.html

Where are our Nigerian experienced bankers I ask? Too busy navigating through 3 wives, 12 children and writing Sharia literature. What it takes to confirm a Nigerian CBN governor is 3 1/2 hours of senate jamboree hi-fiving sessions, in a secret hiding place away from the Nigerian people. I was just wondering what questions were asked of him besides his position on Sharia studies and the sonorous, quintessential-sounding English vocabulary.



http://www.thebanker.com/top1000.php

The Banker Top 1000 World Banks
The Banker Top 1000 World Banks 2009

The 39th edition of The Banker Top 1000 World Banks ranking, published in the July issue of The Banker, charts the world's banks according to Tier 1 capital.

Tier 1 capital is the most relevant measurement of bank strength.

The ranking comes with an interactive CD and can be viewed in its entirety or sorted by assets, country or region. It also charts the new arrivals and fastest movers so you can see who is performing well in these troubled economic times and who isn't.

Get your own copy now to understand what real bankers do for their countries economies.

Deals of the year.

http://www.thebanker.com/news/fullst...Year_2009.html

Deals of the Year 2009: The Winners - Africa

MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS

WINNER: VODAFONE'S ACQUISITION OF A 70% STAKE IN GHANA TELECOM

Sole financial advisor: UBS

HIGHLY COMMENDED: FARM-OUT OF 60% OF OPERATED INTEREST IN BEMOLANGA OIL SANDS TO TOTAL

Two deals stood out when it came to awarding the best merger or acquisition for Africa in 2008. Madagascar Oil's sale of a 60% interest in its Bemolonga Oil Sands development to international oil company Total was both fortunate in its timing, given the recent overthrow of the Malagasy government, and successful in the face of the complexity of the deal. Investment bank Jefferies advised on the deal and did well to structure a successful sale against such a politically volatile backdrop in Madagascar.

The award for best M&A deal, however, went to UBS for its role in the sale of 70% of Ghana Telecom to UK telecom giant Vodafone for $900m. The deal was the largest takeover of an African company by an international acquirer in 2008 and the biggest ever M&A deal in Ghana's history.

African privatisations can often be a political minefield and UBS, which has been hit hard by the fall-out from the credit crisis, did well to negotiate what could potentially have been a very sensitive privatisation.

Ghana's economy has been severely stunted by the global downturn with high inflation in 2007 and a swelling current account deficit on the back of increased public spending. The government was under pressure to sell Ghana Telecom quickly in order to raise funds. It had already been on the market for one year when UBS took on the advisory role to Vodafone, and pressure was building. Throughout the negotiation process, Vodafone had to deal directly with government ministers and UBS's advice undoubtedly helped the deal run smoothly.

Performing the requisite due diligence was another challenge for UBS and Vodafone since there was no sell-side adviser to manage and organize the data gathering and management presentations. UBS did well to negotiate such a large deal in the context of a potentially volatile political and economic environment, with a government that was under pressure to raise funds quickly and with an election looming. By the close of the deal Ghana's total enterprise value was $1.3bn.

I ask again, what kinds of deals have our experienced "bankers" negotiated for the past 50 years almost? Do we have credible financial advisers even with the so-called 35+ experiences in the banking industries? I guess Halliburton counts.

[abdulmumin]

Originally Posted by Anto

We pray SLS left rabid religious extrermism behind when he assumed the office of CBN governor.

In any developing country he could not have passed Senate confirmation for the job in view of his past depositions on religion. But he had to be confirmed because today we have an excessively strong centre (unitary government) to whose leader (however capable) all must pay deference and homage to get along.
I hope SLS realises early enough that the CBN is an institution rooted on secularism; and that given the country's religious history any body poaching on the secularist roots of Nigeria is fit to be charged with TREASON.

It is unfortunate to read such unfounded comments written supposedly by people who should know better. All it takes to educate yourself about SLS is to google his name and read some of his write-ups over the last decade but this is too much of an effort for some of us as we'd rather rely on pedestrian banter (an euphemism for beer parlour talk).

It is obvious to me from your use of the word 'secular' that you neither understand its meaning nor are you are acquainted with the Nigerian constitution.

[busanga]

No, the lazy ones amongst us expect us to do their homework from them. If you have not read Sanusi Lamido, it is only because you limit your web search for knowledge to your comfort zone. The man has been writing since 1998. Those of us who know him by his words, do so. Enough and Google it!

Challenges I would like to see Lamido Sanusi address. Frankly not interested in his soci0-religious theses but what he has to work with concerning Nigeria's economic recovery(which he had been part of as a Nigerian banker with many years of experience) The next 5 years should concentrate on these.


http://www.thebanker.com/news/fullst...cheerful_.html

Reasons to be cheerful

By Charlie Corbett | Published: 07 April, 2009


A collapsed stock market and a plummeting oil price would normally be good reason for investors to steer clear of Nigeria. But the country is weathering the financial storm and its reformed bank sector, while unsteady, looks set to survive the crisis intact. Charlie Corbett reports from Lagos.

Nigerians are the happiest people in the world. Or at least that was the view of social science researcher World Values in its 2008 survey of global happiness. It cited humour, openness and can-do spirit as attributes that kept the populace of Africa's second biggest economy cheerful. Nigerians will need all three attributes in abundance if they are to top the happiness league again for 2009.

In the past 12 months, Nigeria's economy has been severely undermined by a tumbling stock market and collapsing oil prices.

As the credit crisis in developed countries began to take hold, risk-averse foreign investors fled the Nigerian market, causing panic on the exchange and leading to a selling frenzy that eventually wiped N8000bn ($53.7m) off the value of stocks.

At the same time, the price of oil, which makes up 95% of Nigeria's export earnings, fell off a cliff. It dropped from its mid-2008 highs of almost $150 per barrel to about $40 as The Banker went to press. The global economic crisis has shaken the country's ruling elite and a planned $500m sovereign bond was shelved in March by finance minister Mansur Muhtar, who cited weakness in the international financial markets and potentially prohibitive interest rates.

Serious challenges

In announcing his long overdue budget in mid-March, president Umaru Yar'Adua conceded the economy faced "serious challenges" in 2008 and that spending would need to increase by 17% on the year before. The country's supply of foreign currency reserves fell from $52.8bn in December to about $48bn in March, with the government under increasing pressure to spend more, as revenues drop and the price of imports increases. The government has estimated that the budget deficit is likely to reach just over 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) for 2009, compared to 2.1% last year.

Nigeria's weakening macroeconomic position led to a collapse in the currency in November when the naira fell by 20% against the dollar. The governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Chukwuma Soludo, previously praised for his reforming zeal in the bank sector, has come under strong criticism. His decision in November to allow the currency to depreciate and implement strict currency controls in order to protect foreign reserves was met with dismay from some quarters of the country's banking industry. The inter-bank market in foreign exchange was effectively shut down, leaving banks bereft of a formerly lucrative source of income.

CBN Support
Most bankers in Nigeria, however, are broadly supportive of the CBN's policy, just so long as the currency controls are temporary. "Policy makers have to decide what the best set of tools is to manage a difficult and unprecedented situation," says Ladi Balogun, managing director of First City Monument Bank in Lagos. "Only in hindsight can you tell if those are the right policies. The requirements of the real economy must be placed ahead of the financial markets."

It is all a far cry from the heady days of early 2008 when Nigeria was basking in the afterglow of consistently high oil prices and a hugely profitable and stable post-reform bank sector. Nigeria's banks, once the standard bearers of the country's burgeoning middle class, now stand on considerably shakier ground. Many are heavily exposed to bad loans through margin lending to financial speculators that were crippled when the Nigerian Stock Exchange fell by 60% in a matter of months last year. As a result, the CBN estimates the bank sector as a whole could be exposed to almost N1000bn of bad debts. This has led some financial analysts to call for a state-backed bank bail out to save the sector from collapse. Most, however, believe this policy to be unnecessary. Capital adequacy ratios in the sector average more than 20% and, even when the losses through bad loans are taken into account, analysts from investment bank Renaissance Capital believe that figure would only drop to a sturdy 15%. But that is not to say there won't be casualties.

"If I told you I knew there wouldn't be any insolvency, I would be lying," says Victor Osadolor, group chief financial officer at UBA. "Every bank is taking different actions and some might be more prudent than others. When you have illiquidity on a consistent basis, insolvencies happen because people become desperate." He adds, however, that the CBN has responded well to the situation. "I really think that you will not have a bank failure in Nigeria because the CBN knows the consequences. It is contagious and will remove trust from the whole system."

Power problems

Aside from the bank sector's issues, Nigeria faces the perennial problem of power generation. Despite numerous pledges from the government of President Yar'Adua, little has been achieved to provide Nigeria with a consistent supply of electricity. Blackouts remain commonplace and most private companies are still forced to spend large sums of money providing their own power through costly diesel generators.

In early March, the president took the drastic step of removing three top executives at the state-run Power Holding Company of Nigeria after years of failure. It is all part of the government's pledge to boost Nigeria's power supply from a meagre 3000 megawatts, as it stands today, to 6000 megawatts by the end of 2009. Few in Lagos are optimistic this target will be met. "I've heard that story before. Even if they had the money and started now, it wouldn't be ready by the end of the year," one Lagos resident tells The Banker.

The solution is the private sector, according to Tayo Aderinokun, managing director of Guaranty Trust Bank in Lagos.

"It's not rocket science. Let every state take care of its electricity. Leave them free to charge whatever rate is economical for them to make a profit. The same as what happened with the telecoms industry," he says. "Having one head of electricity generation for the whole country sitting in Abuja is not going to work.

Decentralise the whole thing."

Most agree that Nigeria's chronic mismanagement of its power sector is the single biggest constraint on economic progress. "Without power we can make no more progress in Nigeria. Small and medium-sized enterprises are groaning from a lack of power," says Mr Osadolor. "We need companies that are focused on profit and competition. Once power is fixed in this country, the small and medium-sized enterprises will come out and truly show what they are capable of."

Weather the storm

Despite the mounting challenges that Nigeria's economy will face in 2009, the country is well placed to weather the storm. Most agree the government is handling the economic crisis with a steady hand, and there have been no defaults in the bank sector or widespread insolvencies. During the country's last big recession in the early 1980s, loose monetary and fiscal policy eventually led to a military coup. This time the country has a well capitalised bank sector and a stable civilian government. Although GDP growth is likely to fall considerably from last year's 6.4%, most analysts agree that the economy will still grow by a healthy 3% to 4% in 2009.

The problems caused by a plunging oil price have tended to mask the fact that the oil sector's growth has been dwarfed in recent years by the growth of other sectors. Agriculture, telecoms and services all outpaced oil growth last year and are likely to continue to do so in 2009. A visit by George Soros's $20bn hedge fund in March, looking for opportunities, emphasises how far Nigeria has come. Esili Eigbe, an equity research analyst for Renaissance Capital in Lagos, believes that, even now, it is a good time to invest in Nigerian stocks. "Nigeria is one of the cheapest places in the world you can find equities. It's no wonder Mr Soros came in," he says. "We've seen a lot more interest [from investors] looking to buy up assets that have been greatly devalued since the beginning of last year."

Despite the government's many failings in tackling Nigeria's age-old problems of corruption, power shortages and poor infrastructure, many believe it has taken great strides towards championing the rule of law. The country has genuine political stability for the first time in decades and few Nigerians would swap a slow-moving democratic process for a fast-moving military dictatorship. Strong economic headwinds will buffet Nigeria in 2009 but, unlike in past times, few predict a fundamental breakdown in the economy or government. Nigerians have good reason to be a lot more cheerful than the inhabitants of most developed countries and might perhaps scoop World Values' happiness award again in 2009. In the words of GT Bank's cheerful Mr Aderinokun: "Despite everything, we are happy. We always see the brighter side. Tomorrow will be a better day is the Nigerian adage. We've seen worse before, we'll come back."

Interesting.

Nigeria can come through its economic woes

Published: 07 April, 2009


When Nigeria last faced an economic downturn of this magnitude, in the early 1980s, the inaction of a fledgling civilian government led directly to a military coup, followed by decades of political instability and economic malaise. Today, the price of oil, Nigeria's biggest export earner, has nosedived, the stock market has crashed and foreign investors are pulling out – but this is not the 1980s.

Though Nigeria's economy faces its biggest challenge for decades, it is in a strong position to weather the storm. The political situation, while still beset by vested interests and petty squabbling, is stable. A civilian government is handling the crisis and, while many of its decisions have been criticised, president Umaru Yar'Adua and his central bank chief have received broad support.

All eyes have turned to the country's newly reformed bank sector, which has been hit hard by losses through margin lending that could be in the region of N14,000bn ($9.5bn). Whereas 10 years ago this would have spelt disaster for the banks and the economy, today, thanks to the consolidation of the sector, average capital adequacy ratios are more than sufficient to soak up the losses.

There will, of course, be casualties, but the prospect of a systemic meltdown of the bank system is a distant one. Much more needs to be done in Nigeria before it can reach its true potential – the country's infrastructure remains weak, corruption is an ever-present shadow and militant action in the oil-rich Niger Delta has stymied production. But the country has a new-found political and economic resilience that many hope will guide it through the current crisis

Enough of hope, it is time to put experience to work.

[aguabata]

Pius Adesami dissappoints by not being more subjective, just to echo what other threads have asked, what are his economist credentials? Sanusi do not have the best skills for the job in Nigeria. Can he send his CV to AXA in Hongkong or even Pricewatercoopers office in Portharcourt and be called for an interview. However not having the best economic credentials wouldnt stop him for doing ok. it is only time that will tell. Afterall Nigerian economy is determined by the price of crude oil and how much the politicians are able to steal at any one time.

[bakoso2000]

I think it is always better to err on the side of caution when discussing a new government appointee, especially an appointee of a govenment that totally lacks credibility. We should abstain from praise-singing them until we have credible evidence of benefits from their public service lest we be guilty of sycophancy and fawning obsequiousness.

[busanga]

Bakoso I am with you...I don't see any praise singing here, the author was only establishing an antecedent for those who have been beguiled by the close mindedness on display in our public space as his appointment was being debated. I have an open mind, and a cup full of dry gun powder for him when he messes up. It is now time to hold his feet to the fire. He is serving us.