Soon, We Shall All Be Trekking

Soon, We Shall All Be Trekking By Reuben Abati It must be a joke, right? The proposed plan by the Federal Government to fully deregulate the downstream sector and remove the remaining subsidy on petroleum products. When the news first broke during the week, Nigerians were told that a committee had been set up to be led by the Governor of Bauchi State, Isa Yuguda, with a mandate to work out an action-plan and a time-table for implementation and consult with stakeholders. The mischief and dishonesty are obvious: why set up a committee to seek the input of stakeholders when a final decision has already been taken? By yesterday, The Saturday Punch newspaper had reported that a pump price of N73 per litre may be announced within a week. The assignment of the Yuguda committee had been completed even before it had a chance to sit. A Petroleum Industry Bill, and another bill seeking to change the Petroleum Producta Pricing...Read the full article.

[konkomitant]

Lamentation!
You better be a prophet, otherwise I don't see why you should be trekking because 3 Naira is going to be added to the pump price. So, why did the marketers refuse to reduce the pump price to 65 Naira?

The oil companies that are benefiting from the current system of subsidy are the one complaining to Financial Times about the dangers of deregulating the industry.

Privatise the refineries and stop wasting money on it without any tangible result.
Deregulate the industry. A lot of countries I know are getting taxes from the petrol pump instead of burning billions through the exhaust pipe.

I am not a Chicago Boy, but the current mode of operation is just not right.

[LAN]

@Konkomitant
The writer is sceptical that FULL deregulatrion will ultimately pass hardship to the masses. The savings of N640billion that Govt. is talking about will as usual end up in private pockets.

From perspective of firms and small businesses, it will be difficult to plan because prices of fuel will highly fluctuate due to total deregulation; companies may prematurely close shop due to sudden jump in prices of fuel. This is the way I will like you to see it.

Also, the tax you mentioned will still not be spent on infrastructures, it will be packed in Ghana-Must-Go Hope you get it

[LoveNigeria]

Originally Posted by Robot

Soon, We Shall All Be Trekking By Reuben Abati It must be a joke, right? The proposed plan by the Federal Government to fully deregulate the downstream sector and remove the remaining subsidy on petroleum products. When the news first broke during the week, Nigerians were told that a committee had been set up to be led by the Governor of Bauchi State, Isa Yuguda, with a mandate to work out an action-plan and a time-table for implementation and consult with stakeholders. .........Read the full article.

Worse still, I foresee the price of oil will go down to $20+ a barrel sometimes in '09.

Hard to predict exactly what will happen when people are pushed to the wall -but it's never pretty. Welcome to the beginning of the end. Everyone will share the pain one way or the other -even in diaspora. Our native villages may turn out to be the safest place to live eventually.

This might actually lead to the revolution some people at NVS have been talking about. Perhaps we'll see sample if the PDP rig the rerun in Ekiti.

[konkomitant]

Abegi, my people, rest that case.

Make them deregulate make we see wether the whole Nigeria will go bankrupt.
You people cry wolf wolf, but I can't see any wolf.

Did you read that in Ghana, petrol sells at 92cents/litre, that's after tax of 47.5cents/litre? While in Nigeria the same petrol sells for 51cents/litre after subsidy. So where's the subsidy money going? Private hands or ghostly hands.

Let's wait and see sha.

[Tafia]

for me, na the "stoning" part na him konsan me; wen we go start? The whole idea might be intended for the greater good but the savings from deregulation is likely to go the way of public funds. But beyond all the rhetoric is the fundamental question; what can we do about it when our systems of socio-political/social regulation are hijacked and parvenus and chalatans hold us hostage? When we can answer this question personally and in our small groups, is when we really begin.

[Enyi]

Other countries of the world provide subsidy for their citizens. Nigerians ask: if they remove petroleum subsidy compeletely, then what is it that we are expected to enjoy as citizens?

This is a pertinent question that FGN should answer. Can we for a minute ask why US and EU countries have not withdrawn agricultural subsidies despite the prevailing global economic crisis. Can this be related to the fact that these countries have leaders that were truly elected and not selected in a do or die affair? Why are the Middle-East countries not considering increasing fuel price?

Also, the rehabilitation of the refineries, we are told, ended up putting money in private pockets, and so the Federal Government does not intend to spend one extra kobo on those refineries anymore. If the government knows all of these, why is it lamenting? It should immediately arrest those who have encouraged the inefficiency in the PPMC, the NGC, the NNPC, the PPPRA and let Nigerians know who and how the subsidy of N640 billion vanished annually without any impact on the economy and the people.

This is a valid point.

Muhtar says privatisation of the refineries is important and that government is determined to get it right this time.

We must be very careful with this. In any case, why can't the government run these as profitable ventures or in partnership with the private sector? Rather than full privatization of the refineries, the government should encourage individuals to set up refineries.

We may not necessarily end up trekking but the fact remains that an increase in fuel price will trigger off increases in cost of transportation, food, manufacturing, house rent and a host of others. A government is supposed to ameliorate, not exacerbate, the plight of the citizens.

[Danmeka]

Please read this book "The Next Gulf;London, Washington and Oil Conflict in Nigeria by Andrew Rowell, James Marriott, and Lorne Stockman (Paperback - 3 Nov 2005). It's a must read for anyone looking to understand Nigeria's myriad problems. It shows how the political profiteers, the swindlers, the men in high and low places with their foreign collborators are trying to fully deregulate the downstream sector and remove the remaining subsidy on petroleum products just tells us our greedy our political elites have become.They would use any means to protect their status quo even if the Nigerian millitary fails they would use Foreign based private security outfits to protect their oil interest in the Niger Delta
The picture gets even clearer.

[kvin33]

The late Sonny Okosun once asked "Which way Nigeria", but a more important question may have been: How long can this continue? Can Nigeria continue on its current path for the next 10, 20, 50 years? If so what will it look like? If you ponder this for a few seconds, it will become clear that it is bound to come crashing down, maybe in 5 days, 5 months, or 5 years but definitely.

Oil benchmark 2008 budget, $53, 2009 budget, $45. Oil price expected average 2009, $43, current price $44. Nigeria OPEC quota cut 13% to 1.67 million barrels. Clearly we have a problem. Removing the subsidy is a major change but a secondary effect. Note the pump prices will not just rise it will fluctuate wildly. Serious as this is, it is but a symptom of a massive underlying problem that serious people are trying to manage.

Nonetheless, this is clinical insanity! These people are mad and must be removed from their positions before they kill us all. The way to destroy a country is to induce them to destroy themselves -who are these mad people listening to? The giant sucking sound you hear is the pocket of all Nigerians being drained. Starvation on mass scale is about to be unleashed across the country and these men are making academic arguments. This is incompetent economics, we have set the fuse that will blow up Nigeria. I guarantee you, this is the end. Nigeria is finished. The final phases of the collapse has begun, and it will proceed to its logical conclusion. At what speed, one cannot say precisely but it will continue, sector by sector, month by month, the collapse will be complete and it will be unstoppable.

Take the banks, the balance sheets of all the major banks have gaping holes. These banks are technically insolvent. If these banks honestly write down their losses, depositors will find out in short order that their money is gone. For instance, look at the direct and indirect investments in the stock market where prices were artificially driven to unsustainable levels, this has resulted in massive margin loan losses for the local banks as prices deflated over the past 24 months while foreign capital fled. FG bailout will bankrupt the country therefore is unlikely, IMF bailout is undesirable. In addition, the massive collapse in oil prices in the last 20 months has led to significant revenue shortfalls for both the FG and all states. As a result, states will either have to slash jobs, or cut pay, or default on their debts to the banks. The extra liquidity provided by the central bank to offset some of these losses over the last 12 months has resulted in a 20% depreciation in the Naira exchange rate with gold, foreign currencies and local purchasing power (price inflation). Clearly, that was not enough as further layoffs, austerity policies are being instituted to tax Nigerians to death. Subsidies are being lifted, capital contracts will be cancelled, strikes will paralyze education, transport fares will sky rocket, food prices will chase the dollar and still it will not be enough. Non-security government services, then security services will be cut back. Riots, clashes will erupt all over the country, of course we'll be told it is tribal, religious, anything to distract from the incompetence and mad men who will run us to the ground.

Take remittances, If you look at remittances which ran at $18 billion last year, 90% of which came from the west including over 50% just from the US, the center of the global credit crisis. The south, especially the south east survives on these remittances. A decline of 20%-40% over the next 12 to 24 months coupled with the exploding prices as the Naira plummets, will set the stage for a major catastrophe. In the west, population flows toward Lagos from all over the west and mid-west will swamp and overwhelm the city state, anarchy will reign.

Take Northern Nigeria, the problem in the north is scary. Many northerners have been reduced to the level of human cattle by a bunch of mad men who think they are God. In their quest to maintain power, less than 500 families have systematically looted the people of their wealth, their history, their future. Induced a gigantic population to set themselves on a path to destruction, to abandon all industry, trade, commerce, education, everything in exchange for an imperial system of dependency that is unsustainable and immoral. Genocide in the old eastern region is used to maintain this unholy system of mental slavery, but it has come to an end. There isn't enough money to go around! There is only but so many easterners to kill before you'll have to feed your people, when you can't, they'll turn on you. When that time comes, many will stand with the masses in the north. Look at Jos, Bauchi, Adamawa is about to blow. One by one, and it will escalate in the coming months. The true revolution some of us have been waiting for must start in the North, anything else is just a joke. Watch the headlines as they chronicle the collapse of a nation.

In the end, the scarcity of food will be the unstoppable force that will bring this era of governance to an end. 140 million people without food and "governors", "senators" etc think they will enjoy their loot, ha! These people should read up on the french revolution. My people, there will be blood. Judgement day is here. The time to plant is over, now we reap what we have sown. No retreat, no surrender. In the next 12 to 24 months, Nigeria as we have known it will cease to exist!

[akuluouno]

Na waooh. Some optimists argue that the deregulation is a vicarious outcome of the global economic meltdown.

[thamhez]

Atleast, this is an opportunity for Yuguda to recover some of the funds "invested" during the wedding of the century. Its pretty smart. Its very clear that our leaders are stupendously irresponsible and they dont seem to have a dot of foresight, but I really dont blame them, the whole nation has turned crazy. I pity naija no be small.

[thamhez]

I think the Federal should go a step further by deregulating the oxygen we breath, water, shining of congo and laughing.

[thamhez]

I think the Federal should go a step further by deregulating the oxygen we breath, water, shining of congo and laughing.

[thamhez]

I think the Federal should go a step further by deregulating the oxygen we breath, water, shining of congo and laughing.

[Ochi Dabari]

The title is mis-leading and an exaggeration of the Nigerian situation, for which reason, I will not read the article. Reuben knows as we all do that not ALL will soon be trekking. There are thousands, if not millions, of well CONNECTED Nigerians who have lived on special oil allocations all their lives. And of course there are those of us whose fathers and uncles and other relatives destroyed the refineries and set up alternative plants in Sao Tome, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Our relatives us have the licence to bring in poisonous petrol from the Gulf. These relatives of ours have private boats and jets too, so we will rely on them, once more, to bring in special allocations of fuel (petrol, kerosine, etc) from their off-shore refineries.

Yesterday, when I had some time on my hands, I read the interview with Prof Sola Adeyeye on SR and the man has not cooled at all from our ANA days. Sola was in the House of Rapes for some years, was unable to get into the Senate, no thanks to Prof Wuruwuru's Dependent National Electoral Commission (DNEC). Even in the years that Sola was in the Hose, he fought with his colleagues over the bogus allowances that the Rapes and Sin-ators are receiving, and Sola has not given up. These days, the Rapes receive like N5m and the Sinas receive like N7m per month, besides their paltry regular salaries. Now tell me, will these Nigerians be trekking too if petrol subsidy is removed? I don't think so.

All anyone needs to do is not to panic but find a way to become connected and you will be assured of your oil block and petrol allocation. Woe unto those who do not heed this warning.

Tell us something else, jare.

ochi

[bob]

at the risk of sounding inconsiderate since i do not live in nigeria (but i have parents, brothers and sisters in naija) i say remove the subsidy. let the doomsday come.
or sa the streetsaying goes : nothing de happen.

[LAN]

Originally Posted by Ochi Dabari

The title is mis-leading and an exaggeration of the Nigerian situation, for which reason, I will not read the article. Reuben knows as we all do that not ALL will soon be trekking. There are thousands, if not millions, of well CONNECTED Nigerians who have lived on special oil allocations all their lives. And of course there are those of us whose fathers and uncles and other relatives destroyed the refineries and set up alternative plants in Sao Tome, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Our relatives us have the licence to bring in poisonous petrol from the Gulf. These relatives of ours have private boats and jets too, so we will rely on them, once more, to bring in special allocations of fuel (petrol, kerosine, etc) from their off-shore refineries.

Yesterday, when I had some time on my hands, I read the interview with Prof Sola Adeyeye on SR and the man has not cooled at all from our ANA days. Sola was in the House of Rapes for some years, was unable to get into the Senate, no thanks to Prof Wuruwuru's Dependent National Electoral Commission (DNEC). Even in the years that Sola was in the Hose, he fought with his colleagues over the bogus allowances that the Rapes and Sin-ators are receiving, and Sola has not given up. These days, the Rapes receive like N5m and the Sinas receive like N7m per month, besides their paltry regular salaries. Now tell me, will these Nigerians be trekking too if petrol subsidy is removed? I don't think so.

All anyone needs to do is not to panic but find a way to become connected and you will be assured of your oil block and petrol allocation. Woe unto those who do not heed this warning.

Tell us something else, jare.

ochi

Ochi
Anyway thank you for your comment, seems you have an idea of the article though you didn't read it.

"trekking" is a figurative word in this context. you remember what they called "Ëxaggeration" in your Figure of Speech class. It's a long time I understand.

But seriously speaking, under full deregulation of petroleum products; more of the down trodden will join the "trekking" wagon.

[Mikky jaga]

The Federal Government should go ahead and deregulate the oil sector fully. That is the most reasonabl;e thing to do. But what this government is calling deregulation is plain privatization of government properties. It is fraudulent and a way of getting more money to sustain the prodigality of the present government ion the face of dwindling crude oil receipts.

Deregulation, the way I understand it is like what was done in the Telecoms sector. Allow willing individuals invest their money in forming companies that provide the services that the government could not provide. The government did not have to sell NITEL, just allow free plaing ground for investors to invest their money, simple.

Let the present refineries remain the properties of the FG and let the government enter into negotiations with investors to build refineries in every state of the federation, with incentives. Before we know it, all these talk of fuel subsidy that never seem to leave us since petrol was sold for N9.00 will be forgotten.

How many people are using Nitel lines today? Yet more people have access to phones than when Nitel was fully in charge.