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Naira: Removing the zeros

Naira: Removing the zeros
Submitted by Robot
Aug 17, 2007
Default Naira: Removing the zeros

Naira: Removing the zeros
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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 02:31 PM   # 1 (permalink)
Default Re: Naira: Removing the zeros



Nice one Dr. Abati,

I see you are sitting on the fence and pointing fingers on this one...

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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 06:27 PM   # 2 (permalink)
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This is utter rubbish! This denomination is too important to play possum. Declare your mind, so that we may count you. Nigeria is at crossroads right now. We need men/women with vision, not fence sitters. Everybody must contribute.

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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 07:03 PM   # 3 (permalink)
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My brothers and Sisters!!!

Yes ohhhh Yes!!! Great!! move by Mr. President and Prof. Soludo.

I hope they consider changing the name of the currency to help implementation (grand ma and uncle in the village will need help). If we truly believe it as the currency for African, the name should reflect that (I humbly suggest Afri) or we can start using the ECOWAS currency name, the Eco.
Secondly I would recommend if not already suggested that we fellow the introduction of the Euro and have products priced at the two currencies 9 months before the switch. For example newspapers and other products and service with visible pricing will have both old and new price. Even your bank accounts, salary,stock, contracts, letter of credit and rent to name a few will have both old and new prices. This will help reduce short term inflationary pressure during conversion.
A former Caribbean PM said the greatest regret he had was devaluing the countries currency. But he had no choice, his predecessors had put the country in too much debt and he did not have any other options then. Even though this is not a revaluation, it should help from an inflation stand point. It would make it easier for us to regain some of the lost value if we grow our economy. So it is not a magic bullet!!!

My brothers and sister the magic bullet!!! is energy Below is an Open letter to Mr. President and some supporting articles for background at this links http://nigeriansforsuperenergy.com/p...8350fcc6280330. We started this campaign to help push for in our own opinion the one thing that will astronomically change the lives of Nigerians. We are asking for two things:
1. 24 Refineries in a National/Publicly traded oil company with global reach.
2. 50,000 megawatts in a well planned power grid.
More information at http://nigeriansforsuperenergy.com
We believe in making this a campaign for everyone, I have spoken to some people in the Labour union and they like the ideas. My point to them was we should concentrate on building a global world class energy power house by supporting the efforts of this new government. It worked for Russia and Venezuela I believe it will work for us. This is a quote in the Appendix, that I sent to you, that shows how Putin regime used Venezuela as an example. "Global Ambitions. The Kremlin wants to play a major role in Russia's domestic and global energy markets while keeping foreign investors at bay. The government-owned Gazpromneft (the combined Gazprom and Rosneft) will be a major global company, bigger than Petroleas de Venezuela (PVDSA) and comparable to Saudi Arabia's Aramco (both state monopolies), and will become an instrument of Russian foreign policy throughout the region and around the world."
The president has said he want to bet the Asian Tigers. This a way of achieving that goal. I lived in Venezuela for 3 years and knew they had a good national oil company, but when I started my research on energy I nearly fall off my seat my I found out they have 24 refineries compared to the whole of Africa with only 39 Refineries.

Thanks in advance for spreading the "word" and I invite you all to personally join the campaign.





Joseph Inyang
Nigerians for Super Energy
2026 N. Oakland Ave
Milwaukee, WI 53202
414-272-1656
http://www.nigeriansforsuperenergy.com
joe@nigeriansforsuperenergy.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 28, 2007 Nigerians for Super Energy a grassroots campaign for energy sends an open letter to President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua of Nigeria.

Open Letter to President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua


Dear Mr. President:

We are writing in support of your Energy goals for Nigeria. We believe that Nigeria should become energy “Super Energy Power”. You rightly said so on June 11, 2007 and we quote “As I keep saying, we cannot begin to address, in a fundamental manner, the problems of the economy, until we successfully tackle the power and energy issue. It is critical to all my plans. So I am more interested in how much gas we can tap for domestic use than what we can get for export. We must power this economy,” Mr. President as you know, we have a very sick patient, "Nigerian Energy"; we need world class surgeons to lead this effort no more nurses. No disrespect to my mom she was a nurse for over 40 years!! And when you sign the FOI (Freedom of Information) bill you will have about 100m + eyes helping to monitor the progress of the projects. Mr. President below is our humble suggestions for radically changing our energy strategy.

Fuel Plan
24 Refineries in a National/Publicly traded oil company with global reach is what we need!!!
They say imitation is a form of flattery. If so, Nigeria needs to look to Venezuelans to reform its fuel sector. Due to the policies of Venezuelan oil company, PDVSA, the Venezuelans are able to enjoy $0.19 per gallon or N6.12. The Venezuelan oil company, PDVSA, had decided that it was not the crude oil export business but in the global petroleum and chemical business. So they invested in refining and retail business in Venezuela and almost all their export markets. Today PDVSA processes 3.3m barrels per day through 24 refineries: six complexes in Venezuela, one in the Caribbean, eight in the United States and nine in Europe. The Brazilian Oil company, Petrobras is another example. This company is renowned for its leadership in development of advanced technology from deep-water and ultra-deep water oil production. With 55.7% of Petrobras' Common Shares (with vote right) is owned by the Brazilian government, however privately held portions are traded on Bovespa stock market .On April 21st of 2006, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced Brazil's self-sufficiency in petroleum. Mr. President please seek counsel of the architects of PDVSA, Mr. Putin and/or Silva to see what they are doing. We recommend three strategic steps to revolutionize our oil sector.
1. NNPC should be come a government/public firm with part of it shares allocated for Nigerians. This will provide the company with a new direction and ownership need for the global challenges.
2. NNPC should go on a buying spree with the aid of government funds to buy (outright or major) shares in refineries in Africa, China and United States. This will provide us with immediate source of refined products, opportunities to train our people and hard currency. Best of all this does not need the 18 to 24 months to build a refinery. This will also provide us a stop gag measure until we build more refineries. It is all about add value and we need to start doing that.
3. Start building 4 refineries and retail outlets to take care of the local demand as estimated for 2010. This will help put to rest the fuel challenges that we face as a Nation.

Electrical Plan
50,000 megawatts in a well planned power grid is what we need!!!
Why 50,000 Megawatts? Given our population, the goals (15,000MW, 20,000MW, and 30,000MW) currently proposed in different political and business circles does not take care of latent electrical demand. In 1999 we estimated a goal of 4,000mw and 5,600mw, we have reached those goals but still not able to survive disruptions to the power grid. South Africa with a population of 47M generates 36,000MW, Brazil population 188M generates 90,000MW and South Korea population 49M generates 43,833MW. Nigeria with a population of 140M would need to generate 67,021MW to be at par with Brazil the lowest per capita among the three countries. Based on the current estimates of 10,000mw in current or in progress, we will need 40, 000mw to complete our goal. This translates in 1,100mw per state and Abuja. Yes we know some states may not be able to generate this amount due to logistic or cost can join with other states to meet their goal. Some states like Lagos will need double or triple that amount. Using current estimates we believe that we need $29 billion for completion of the goal which about $15 billion should come from the Federal government.
1. The plan would call for part of excess revenue funds to be invested in power generation and transmission.
2. All sates, Abuja and Local governments must contribute a percentage of their net worth to the projects. Land for projects will be provided by state and local governments.
3. All banks must invest a percentage of their net worth. Corporations and individual investors will be encouraged to invest in the projects with a strong push for public stock participation.
4. All companies must provide free electricity and cooking gas to local communities.
5. Alternate sources must be encouraged, At least one coal power station in Enugu with similar capacity of Tutuka, South Africa 6x609 MW. This should be part of the sale of 13 mining titles belonging to the Nigerian Mining Corporation.
6. Gas and oil pipeline should have backup points. We must be able to ship gas or oil to Lagos; after all we ship it to the ends of the world. Our pipe line should be like a Hydra (multi-head monster) that will allow for maintenance without totally shorting down the country.
7. Implement widespread adoption of CFLs (Compact Fluorescent Lights) and other energy saving programs. CFLs save about four times more energy compare to regular lights.
8. Last but not least, industries using gas for energy will be given gas for free or token price.


We are calling on all Nigerians to wear copper colored ribbon (similar to the AIDS ribbon) and March for a Global NNPC with 24 refineries and a 50,000 megawatts power grid. Mr. President since you understand the challenge, we are ready to give you 100% support to make these changes. If the energy issues in Nigeria are solved, a lot of Nigerian lives will be astronomically improved. We call upon all religious, traditional and civic leaders to join Mr. President and 40 days pray and fasting for success.

God Bless Nigeria!!!!



###

Nigerians for Super Energy is a grassroots campaign aimed at supporting the need for energy in Nigeria and the sub region. 35% of all black people in the world need energy to improve their daily lives.

__________________
"We have the audacity to dream"
joe@nigeriansforsuperenergy.com
http://nigeriansforsuperenergy.com
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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 07:05 PM   # 4 (permalink)
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I believe that u underestimate UMY'A at ur own peril. This man is completely in charge. The removal of zeros should be complemented with a deliberate increase in the nations productive capacity away from crude oil. Next will be the renaming of the Naira to avoid confusion as Afraira, Ecraira, Nigeria Dollars or New Naira. For instance N1000 = 1 New Naira, Afraira, Ecraira or Nigeria Dollars.
Soludo maylikely have the solution with a little pane beating here and there.

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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 07:08 PM   # 5 (permalink)
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There are very important issues raised by this article and it is best put in a conversional form like this, as it may have easily happened between two interested Nigerians.


Why did Soludo unilaterally announced proposed Naira decimalization without carrying the Presidency at least the Minister of Finance along?

What kind of government is Yar'Adua running, where there is no proper coordination of the various arms of the Presidency?

What is going to be the outcome of this proposal by Soludo, taken into consideration the political implications?

Over to you villagers.

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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 07:30 PM   # 6 (permalink)
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I first heard of the decimalization of the Naira in December 2006. This was at a presentation made by one of the nation's leading financial analyst and public commentator. The pros and cons of the decimalization were analysed and I vividly remember him stressing on the fact that only a couple of stocks quoted on the stock exchange today are above N100.00. This in effect translated to the fact that all our quoted stock would have to be restructured.

This puts to lie all the insinuations that the Minister of Finance Dr. Shamsideen Usman was in the dark about this development for there is no way that my humble self would be aware of such a monumental change in the structuring of the Naira ahead of the Deputy Governor of the CBN!

Me thinks the attempt by the President to subject such a policy decision to the review of some committee is another shot in the foot. Much as we want a listening president, we do not need (in the words of an Economist columnist) a shilly shally presidency!!!

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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 07:51 PM   # 7 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by tonsoyo View Post


Why did Soludo unilaterally announced proposed Naira decimalization without carrying the Presidency at least the Minister of Finance along?


What is going to be the outcome of this proposal by Soludo, taken into consideration the political implications?

Over to you villagers.

tonsoyo,

I can tell you. Yar'dua is a liar and a coward! It is all a political game for the president.

No Central bank governor, no matter what law they operate under, can revalue the nation’s currency without discussing it with the president.

The president and the minister of finance are afraid of public reaction and the possible outcome of the policy. What is the usefulness of an economic management team that is being set up that has no control over what the CBN does?

Lastly, I can assure you that what Soludo has planned is a sensible approach that carries three obvious advantages:
1. It reduces printing cost of the currency, as the number of denominations would have reduced by half.
2. It will reduce the quantity of the currency that people have to carry on them.
3. May increase the value of the Naira against the Dollar.

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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 08:01 PM   # 8 (permalink)
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Inasmuch as many non-enconomists are airing their views as enconomists are doing does not mean that this policy as any negative impact on Nigeria. The politics must always be a factor in this new policy. With mere enconomics 101 might not lead you to fully grasp thie policy. You did same when Soludo embarked on restructuring the banking industry. You cried that he has killed us. What is the result today? He has acheived what the former CBN governors could not do. He has both the knowledge and the political will to restructure Nigerian enconomy which no other person had tried before him and you are all crying foul. Prof. Soludo you are making Nigerians abroad proud. My country men and women, why not ask Prof. Soludo to help look into the energy sector if there is anything he could do to reposition our country's energy. I believe that if you give him the opportunity in this area he will give us stable energy and he is poised to give us stable enconomy. You are a true enconomist. Allen Greenspan should have even learned from you. Hope Ben Bernike is studying you and all enconomic students in whole world. Thanks a great deal.

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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 08:02 PM   # 9 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by tonsoyo View Post
Why did Soludo unilaterally announced proposed Naira decimalization without carrying the Presidency at least the Minister of Finance along?

What kind of government is Yar'Adua running, where there is no proper coordination of the various arms of the Presidency?
Errr...Ahem!

May I ask my good friend Tonsoyo to please tell this audience how he came to the conclusion that the Presidency (or the President and his Finance Minister - 'pick your choose') is unaware of the plans of the Central Bank Governor to execute the decimalization of the Naria?

Zank You!

Auspicious.

__________________
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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 08:06 PM   # 10 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Sapele Man View Post
tonsoyo,

I can tell you. Yar'dua is a liar and a coward! It is all a political game for the president.

No Central bank governor, no matter what law they operate under, can revalue the nation’s currency without discussing it with the president.

The president and the minister of finance are afraid of public reaction and the possible outcome of the policy. What is the usefulness of an economic management team that is being set up that has no control over what the CBN does?

Lastly, I can assure you that what Soludo has planned is a sensible approach that carries three obvious advantages:
1. It reduces printing cost of the currency, as the number of denominations would have reduced by half.
2. It will reduce the quantity of the currency that people have to carry on them.
3. May increase the value of the Naira against the Dollar.
It means you are naive. CBN is autonomous and can design monetary policy without recourse to those you have mentioned. The Finance Minister confessed to this. So study the regulatory and statutory act establishing CBN.

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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 08:34 PM   # 11 (permalink)
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please could some one apart from tonsonyo explain how exchange rate is determined, it should help us understand the effect of the new policy. So far no body has made a good point on the dangers of the new monetary policy.

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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 08:36 PM   # 12 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Auspicious View Post
Errr...Ahem!

May I ask my good friend Tonsoyo to please tell this audience how he came to the conclusion that the Presidency (or the President and his Finance Minister - 'pick your choose') is unaware of the plans of the Central Bank Governor to execute the decimalization of the Naria?

Zank You!

Auspicious.

You apparently have not been listening to important news (I guess you spend too much time on NVS )

Abubakar the Minister of Finance was reported as saying that they are not aware of such move. Some also came to the defence of Soludo that he does not have to seek the Presidency consent on Monetary Policy. That it is validly within the powers of Soludo to do so. But still ........

Even if you miss all that, did you read this article at all?

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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 08:38 PM   # 13 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Sapele Man View Post
tonsoyo,

I can tell you. Yar'dua is a liar and a coward! It is all a political game for the president.

No Central bank governor, no matter what law they operate under, can revalue the nation’s currency without discussing it with the president.

The president and the minister of finance are afraid of public reaction and the possible outcome of the policy. What is the usefulness of an economic management team that is being set up that has no control over what the CBN does?

Lastly, I can assure you that what Soludo has planned is a sensible approach that carries three obvious advantages:
1. It reduces printing cost of the currency, as the number of denominations would have reduced by half.
2. It will reduce the quantity of the currency that people have to carry on them.
3. May increase the value of the Naira against the Dollar.



I have already express my support for this move on another thread before now. This is the reason Admin. should merge all related thread.

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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 08:54 PM   # 14 (permalink)
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Soludo, Usman’s ‘rivalry’ cited in naira policy review controversy 17/8/2007


From Yomi Odunuga, Vincent Ikuomola (Abuja)and Odunayo Ogunmola, (Ado-Ekiti)


UNKNOWN to many, the President was aware of the "bombshell" strategic agenda for the naira – the controversial rescue pill for the currency announced on Tuesday.
A source said yesterday that the review ordered by the Federal Executive Council (FEC) was not because President Umaru Yar’Adua was not carried along; it was to allow a finetune of the policy.

But the Minister of Finance, Dr. Shamushideen Usman, who said the Federal Executive Council heard about the change in currency regime just like other Nigerians, may have been reacting to a long-time rivalry between him and Central Bank Governor Chukwuma Soludo.

Under the plan, the naira will revert to its pre-1986 level of about N1.25 to the dollar, with the highest denomination pegged at N20.

Usman was deputy governor at the apex bank – a position he held until he was appointed minister. A source said his relationship with Soludo "was not that smooth" because it was believed that Usman was being "groomed" by some powerful people in the North to take over from Soludo. "There was a subtle rivalry between them," according to sources

A source within the bank had noted that Soludo was never comfortable with his subordinate and if he had had his way, he would have had him removed. And according to the source, Usman knew about this.

And so until his nomination by President Yar’Adua, both were only trying to tolerate each other.

Fate played a fast one on Soludo as the president announced Usman the Minister of Finance.

Now that Usman is Soludo’s boss, it is believed he wants to repay the CBN governor back in his own coin.

The source also revealed that it was Usman that first led a group of "loyalists" to the President to condemn the new currency regime, which he was privy to.

This non-support of the new currency regime by the minister was said to be responsible for the drilling that Prof. Chukwuma Soludo was subjected to at the Wednesday FEC meeting.

The source also added: "don’t forget that the Economic team that will review the policy is headed by Usman".

The question the source raised was that if there was no bad blood between them, there would not have been any need for a review of the policy as the minister would have thrown his weight behind it as it was under Mrs Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the former minister.

However, another source in the apex bank noted that the minister could not say he was not informed. The thing is that since he is on the other side, he had to play along.

"Don’t forget that he is no longer with us. Now, he is on the fiscal side; while we are on the monetary side, so you can understand.

"But to say that while they worked together, there was some bad blood between them is a lie".

"I want to assure you that both had a very cordial relationship while working together at the Central Bank".
The insider assertion did not explain the absence of the minister at the press conference where the new regime was unveiled. There were four ministers at the announcement by Soludo on Tuesday.

The Northern Union, a socio-political group pushing the North’s interests, yesterday condemned the new policy, calling on President Umaru Yar’Adua to caution Soludo. A retired Director of Research of CBN, Chief Samuel Bandele Falegan, believed that the policy would positively rub off on the nation’s economy if well managed.

Falegan, in a chat with The Nation in Ado-Ekiti, urged the bank to embark on an aggressive public enlightenment on the new policy to disabuse the minds of Nigerians.

He demanded an urgent explanation from the apex bank in terms of domestic reaction to the policy "when the former N100 becomes N1 and somebody who earns N35,000 would now be receiving N350 with the market woman believing that the currency’s worth has declined".

The former CBN chief described the new policy thrust as fundamental, but cautioned Nigerians against rushing into an early judgment. Besides, he was surprised, that the first negative reaction came from the Federal Executive Council (FEC) which denied knowledge of the re-denomination of the naira.

Falegan noted that before such a fundamental policy is announced, much groundwork and behind-the-scene consultations ought to have been done, especially as the Minister of Finance, Dr Shamsudeen Usman, was until recently a deputy governor at the CBN.

"There should have been internal consultation before the announcement of the new policy. I expect the Economic Team, the Ministry of Finance and the CBN to have been working on it in the past six to nine months as the Finance Minister was a CBN Deputy Governor until recently."

The Northern Union, which held a meeting yesterday in

Abuja, presided over by Dr. Olusola Saraki, also described the call for a fresh election by the President of the Christian Association of Nigeria, Archbishop John Onaiyekan, as an "irrational comment".

A statement read by the General Secretary of the NU, Dr. Ibrahim Lami, said there were indications that powerful economic imperialists and their local collaborators could be working towards sabotaging the seven-point economic agenda of the government.

On the CBN agenda for the naira, the NU said it was wrong for the bank to initiate such a fundamental policy without consulting all the stakeholders, regardless of the autonomy granted it by the CBN Act.

Describing the policy as an imposition, just like the Structural Adjustment Policy introduced by the General Ibrahim Babangida military regime in 1985, the NU noted that the nation might experience another economic crisis.

"It (the naira policy) has critical economic implications which the CBN probably overlooked. This is why we join other critics to call on the President to caution the CBN Governor on the proposal and subject it to public debate before its adoption.

"What the CBN has proposed is not too different from the SAP which the IBB regime imposed on the nation and which is largely responsible for the economic crisis the country is facing today," the NU stated.

Saraki, who was a former Chairman of the defunct Societe Generale Bank, said: "Soludo should not behave like he did during the consolidation of the banks. A lot of people suffered because he was too much in haste. He ought to consult and stop relying on the CBN Act.

"There should be adequate preparation. In other places, it takes more than five years to do this thing. It should not be done unilaterally."

Lami, while describing Onaiyekan’s statement as prejudicial, said "the proposal for the conduct of a fresh election in 2008 as advanced by the new President of CAN is the most irrational comment so far on the April presidential polls.

"Though the NU concedes that the elections had its own flaws, Onaiyekan’s call for extra-judicial invalidation and a re-run of the presidential election when a winner had already being inaugurated is rather uncalled for. The arrangement being canvassed by the CAN President is not only unconstitutional but may do more harm to our nascent democracy."

The NU, which also announced the appointment of a former Inspector-General of Police, Alhaji Muhammadu Gambo Jimeta as Deputy National Chairman to replace Prof. Ango Abdullahi who left the union, said it was behind the efforts being made by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission to bring corrupt public officials to book.

It, however, said the EFCC should carry out such responsibilities within the ambit of the law while those involved should be treated humanely.

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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 08:56 PM   # 15 (permalink)
Default Re: Naira: Removing the zeros



Reuben Abati is a prolific writer, his judgement to me, has always been too simple and his strength lies in his honesty, lately his article on abiola and now the monetary policy seems to me that he is consciously trying to appeal to his admirers/fans. i believe he is capable of lateral thinking i dont know what's gotten over him.

Aguabata

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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 08:59 PM   # 16 (permalink)
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I just hope these economists are not playing games with our lives.

When Naira was still Naira, we were told it was over valued and should be allowed to find its level. The result is the almost valueless Naira we have today.

Now they want to revalue the Naira to make it equivalent to the dollar. I hope no one will rise up tommorrow to say the Naira value was artificial since it was fixed by fiat by Soludo.

One thing I learnt in my primary school economics is that economic theories depend on "all things being equal". The problem is that formulators of these economic policies never wait for all things to be equal before they implement these policies only to find out later that one thing or the other did not make the policy work.

I hope this policy will not be rushed to give room for imputs from all who are knowledgeable in that sector. That it worked somewhere else does not mean it will work in Nigeria.

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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 09:09 PM   # 17 (permalink)
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@Reuben Abati:

please quit all this sarcastic noise making and wondering if Soludo could have done it under president Obasanjo. That is total crap. Obasanjo who is remembered more as a failure is not a reference point.

Nobody can deny that Chukwuma Soludo is the best Central bank governor in Nigeria's history. His banking recapitalisation which was also criticised when the initiative was announced has repositioned Nigerian banks and made them globally competitive. The stock market and shares are now booming like never before in our history.

Soludo is creative, courageous, progressive and talented. He has done and continues to do his bit in the CBN others should do theirs in roads, energy, health, education etc. Nigeria needs more Soludo's even at the presidential level.

The CBN act makes them independent and he has the legal right to make and implement monetary policy without letting the president know, if not the act will be useless. Alan greenspan in the united states doesnt need to consult Bush in making monetary policy.

Just like Proffessor Humphrey Nwosu who invented the option A4 system, organized and courageously announced the results of the freest elections todate in Nigeria's history under serious threat to his life by the Babaganda junta, Soludo is another courageous hero. If Yar' Adua will not give him a free hand to run the CBN he should resign, and i bet you he will forever be remembered by Nigerians as the best CBN governor ever.

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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 09:31 PM   # 18 (permalink)
Default Re: Naira: Removing the zeros



Soludo is the only one who appears to be moving...

Abati should encourage Yaradua & his Cabinet to get MOVING TOO...with an integrated economic policy covering every area. This is indeed Yaradua's opportunity to get other sectors rolling...

But does UMYA have the revolutionary cabinet to achieve this?????

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Old Aug 17, 2007 , 09:41 PM   # 19 (permalink)
Default Re: Naira: Removing the zeros



HABA OGA, NA 10 KOBO DEY VEX YOU?

Why should Umaru or his impostors at the Finance Ministry be specially informed? Is he the President? Who voted for him? He should read the papers like the rest of us. If he doesn't like it, he can organize free elections and win. I must admit, I am not sure what the real effects of this policy change will be on the overall economy. I caution that we may want to query Dr Soludo between now and August 2008 to flesh out the details here. I see a number of problems:

Inflation: Both short term and long term inflation will undoubtedly result from this change in policy. In the short term, many people will start buying up Dollars (as Ruben noted), converting cash, savings to Dollars prior to the change preferring a wait and see stance. This will lead to excess NAIRA liquidity in the FOREX market and exacerbate inflationary tendencies. In the long run, assuming the change is completely successful in the "official" economy (for lack of a better word), there is no guarantee that the "real" economy (including traders, market women, mamaput etc) will indeed make the exact conversion, the tendency for all prices in this new scale will be upward away from the coins. Result: General increase in prices (especially in basic foodstuffs).

Importation and Dumping: If this works, As a developing country in a global economy Nigeria is at a major disadvantage with a currency at par or stronger than the Dollar. People were screaming that Chief Ibetoh was importing cement, that Nigeria needs to move away from an above 90% importation economy -especially in the agric sector. Please, what do you think this policy will do to growth in the food and agric sector? That $40b in reserves is destined for China and soon even the US! Nothing we produce will be cheaper than what China and the Asians churn out in bales and barrels daily. Result: zero production, full importation economy.

On the plus side, there is an interesting effect few people have mentioned. The psychological impact on the common man of this decimalization policy. This psych effect could reap serious political returns for the usurpers in Aso Villa. All of a sudden Nigerians are buying Coke for 5 Naira, Bag of Garri for 50 - 85 Naira, we can scream that it is just re-denomination, but people will translate it into Baba was sent to destroy us, but Umaru was sent to deliver us. However, nobody should use this as an excuse to increase the price of petrol by 10 kobo (equivalent to current N10). Imagine how embarrassing it will be for the NLC to tell Nigerians that they are going on strike because of 10 kobo.

All in all, if inflation is controlled, and adequate subsidies are deployed to compensate for the difference between local and foreign manufacturers, If the liberalization trends are deepened and sustained and the efforts to curb corruption continue, then I think that in the long run, re-denomination may be a worthy complement to these other reform efforts.

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