Many leaders in history always have a Plan B or exit strategies to allow a free passage from eternal disgrace while others simply chose to fall on their swords. Adolf Hitler was believed to have committed suicide in a hidden bunker after the fall of Nazi Germany in 1945 just as Samuel Doe of Liberia decided to fight till he was captured and killed by forces of Yormie Johnson in 1990. Idi Amin Dada escaped to Saudi Arabia after Julius Nyerere’s Tanzania sacked his tyrannical government in 1979 and one of the reasons why Robert Mugabe is still ageing into the Zimbabwean sunset is because he did not have a cogent Plan B. He prefers to expire in office even long after his expiration date.
Since we know elections are a game of probabilities, is it not therefore in place to ask our President, Goodluck Jonathan what his exit strategy is in 2015? Now before any of his die-hard supporters begin to tear me apart, I must say here that it is absolutely democratic to ask for President Jonathan’s exit strategy in the light of the provision of the constitution of the Federal Republic, which allows for a singular renewal after the first term of four years.
Therefore, if in 2015, President Jonathan decides to seek a renewal of his mandate from the Nigerian people and he got rejected? Has he thought about preparing to handover? I think it is better for him to start planning for it now since he is already three years late. For President Jonathan, the 2015 election is that of probabilities and not possibilities, except him and his supporters know something the rest of Nigerians do not know, the odds of him getting a renewal from Nigerians baring all unforeseen circumstances is dangerously close to naught as we speak.
The poor odds affecting his chances of a re-election at the moment are essentially his fault mainly because he failed to abide by the second law of political attraction, which states that: ‘by the second application for a second term in office, an incumbent must have a good story upon which to ride back to power’.
So the question then is what is President Jonathan’s good story that he wishes to sell to the Nigerian electorates for 2015?
If some of the excuses we see on his behalf in some newspaper columns and online forums are a feeler of what would be packaged in his defense for campaigns in 2015, then I think it is DOA.
The President should search for other stories contrary to the one spun by some people and even himself that his administrative failures were mostly as a result of detractors and inherited problems. By now, the President should know that the job of a Nigerian President have a description that entails existing problems. And in applying and attaining the position, the President has undertaken the responsibility of resolving these problems. It is grossly irresponsible to collect the salaries and perks of the office of the President and then blame your dead and alive predecessors for your inabilities of fulfilling the obligations of the same office.
Falling on such excuses might not be a good tale to tell Nigerians after the Cinderella story of ‘shoelessness’ in 2011. The time factor surrounding him as a relatively unknown quantity has since changed and the President must understand that he is no longer a new bride in the eyes of Nigerians, no matter what any of his aides tell him.
For him to even stand a chance of a re-election in 2015, President Jonathan needs a total overhaul of everybody around him because they have become obsolete with time and reality. The fact that they even contributed to him not having a good story to sell to Nigerians for 2015 is an excuse to discard them all into the trash can. In actual fact, some of them did him more harm than good with their lackluster performances as well as the extra pounds of stinking baggages associated with their profligacy and prodigalities. Some even hurl stones into the market place forgetting they stay in a glass house with the President and more than often times; Nigerians are more peeved with the fact that the President does nothing to these aides when they hurl these stones.
Then again the environmental dynamics for his re-election of 2011 is surely different from that of 2015. For the President Jonathan to understand this, he would need to obtain the final composite map of 2011 elections that ushered him in as the President; and then get the one that looks to favour the opposition in 2013. The layman on the streets of Wuse, Oshodi, Ariaria, Sabon gari and Trans-Amadi motor parks understood the problems facing the PDP nowadays. The term ‘we voted Jonathan and not the PDP is as dead as a dodo for 2015’.
From all indications in this New Year, things are bound to be worse as many of the President’s aides would want to shield themselves from a possible change; meaning, they would isolate the President and run for cover under a political association different from where the President is.
Therefore for an advice, President Jonathan’s best exit strategy should be to face the Nigerian masses and deliver on his hitherto electoral promises of 2011 to the best of his ability in a space of twelve months.
Failure to do this will conclude the definition of a failed legacy, which might not continue beyond 2015.