By Victor E. Dike, CEO, Center for Social Justice and Human Development (CSJHD), in Sacramento, California, is the author of Democracy and Political Life in Nigeria (second edition, forthcoming, iUniverse, Inc., 2006). Please send any inquiry about this book to book.orders@iuniverse.com; toll-free: 1-800-288-4677; fax: 402-323-7824 & international: 00-1-402-323-7800.

All systems, political and non-political, are governed by rules that dictate the behavior of the members. In some circumstances, however, rules are both formal (set in law and constitution) and informal (realities and how a system functions in practice). Any effective system should embrace both, with each regulating the other. The structure of a political system and the relationship between institutions and the people affects their political behavior and the socioeconomic state of the society. In an educated and knowledge society formal rules are preferred to informal rules, as they determine how resources are allocated to federal, state and local governments and who administers the society. Societies that are not rule-governed are always chaotic and difficult to govern. The present power shift (or power retention) politics in Nigeria, a concept and process not anchored on a formal rule but revolves around the idiosyncrasies of the rich and powerful, is threatening the unity Nigeria.

As the 2007 election gets nearer the drumbeat of power-shift (or retention) politics gets louder, irritating, insulting, confusing and destabilizing. The politicians from North and South are throwing political punches at each other, as each is claiming ownership of the Presidency. The pitch of the political trumpet gets higher among ethnic politicians that are furiously and arrogantly thumbing their nose, swearing in the name of their political gods that the world would cave in if the presidency were not dropped on their doorstep. In their bid to achieve their selfish purpose each region is stereotyping and insulting one another. And the minority groups within the regions are equally claiming the presidency for varied reasons. While some of them are saying that the presidency should be given to them because they feed the nation, others are arguing that they have been politically marginalized and, therefore, should be allowed to occupy Aso Rock, in 2007. However, the irksome noise have caused political birds of unlike feathers to flock together to actualize their selfish zonal ambition without anyone taking cognizance of the damages their actions are doing to the democratization process and the unity of Nigeria.

The power shift (or retention) palaver is also creating ripple within the zones, as there abound stories of how the political gladiators in the zones are scheming to out maneuver one another in the political crossfire that is reminiscent of the 2003 political era. While a good number of the Governors and ex-military Generals (the good, the bad, and the ugly) want to be the next President, Members of the National Assembly and LGA Chairmen, et cetera, are jostling for higher political positions. The funny thing about this folly is that some of the bona fide members of some of the zones are not perceived indigenous enough to represent the interests of their zones. However, the politicians who are beating the drum of division are those that have been in the corridors of power for year, but cannot put a finger on anything they have done to develop their immediate community or to promote the unity of Nigeria. It is undemocratic to tell any group (or individual) put it’s (his or her) political ambition on hold to in other to allow power to shift to another region (or stay in a particular region). Nigeria belongs to everyone and any person who gets the vote becomes the next president of Nigeria.

The Nigerian politicians do not seem to understand that political power is mostly secured in the market place of political ideas. However, the recycled power-shift (retention) mongers lack ideas on how to move Nigeria forward, as the Nigerian politics is not ideology-based. Presently, support for power shift or otherwise has become a source of political power to the religious, ethnic and regional fundamentalists who are entangled in the primitive politics of "them and us. " Ideological tussles are the norms in real democracies, but mob actions that are common in Nigerian politics, are gargantuan challenges to the national questions and the unity of Nigeria. As noted, in modern advanced democracies espousing proper ideology (and not by belonging to a particular geopolitical zone) gets one political power.

However, ethnic and geo-political politics has been a threat to the unity of Nigeria, but this is assuming a dangerous dimension with the present prejudicial power shift (and power retention) politics. As mentioned earlier, any person who wants to govern the society should bring his/her ideas to the political market place and compete for supporters. But, most of the politicians that are clamoring for the presidency are not anchoring their desire on ability to perform, but on zonal, tribal and religious blackmail.

Nigeria wants a national leader (not a tribal/regional/religious warlord) that can galvanize the plethora of groups in the society for the development of Nigeria. The power shift Nigerians should be clamoring for is a shift from the present corrupt leadership to one that will take Nigeria to the Promised Land of true democracy and true federalism. Nigerians should vote for a power shift from the present "democracy of the rich, for the rich and by the rich" ‘to democracy of the people, for the people and by the people’ (one that assists the poor and needy, the hungry and the oppressed). In 2007, the people should vote for power shift from the politics of lawlessness to the one anchored on rule of law, social harmony, cohesion and national development. Stereotyping one another cannot bring Nigeria the much-desired national unity, as no section of the society has monopoly over leadership. For this writer, it does not matter from whence the President of Nigeria comes. A good leader could come from the North or the South and could be a Muslim or a Christian! Nigerians should watch it and not allow the political gladiators to destabilize Nigeria in their frantic agitation for power shift (or power retention).

Sadly, the story of Nigeria has been one of a strong ethno-regionalism, with ethnic identity playing a prominent role in politics. There has always been the palpable fear of domination by one ethnic/regional/ religious group over the other. This is because the federal government monopolizes power and any group whose homeboy (or home girl) is holding power at the center would get the lion share of the national cake and could even prevent others from getting their meager share. This has contributed to the fierce struggle for power shift (and retention) and some groups will willing employ undemocratic instruments to acquire and keep political power. How long will this primitive and retrogressive politics last? The politicians should re-access their strategies and refocus their attention on national discourse and debate on ways to maintain political stability and national unity and achieve sustainable economic growth and development.

However, as the politicians are entangle in the power-shift (and retention) tussle to have unlimited access to the national treasury the ordinary folks are preoccupied with daily struggle for economic survival. The expectation that the termination of military rule would reduce political tension and ethnic conflicts and improve their living condition remains elusive because there has been an explosion of political and religious conflicts since the return of civil rule in May 1999. Criminals are making living in Nigeria unbearable difficult and poverty has escalated despite Nigeria’s position as the sixth largest oil producing country in the world. Consequently, Nigeria has been described as a paradox or paradox of plenty - a rich nation with the majority of the population living in poverty. The citizens lack basic social amenities, they lack access to clean water and stable electricity supply and the roads and schools are in shambles. Those struggling for power shift (or power retention) are the same group that put Nigeria in its present sorry condition.

And, paradoxically, the leaders of Nigeria preach peace and harmony for African nations, yet Nigeria is in turmoil. The political process in the society looks ‘democratic’ on the surface, but the nation does not even have a "benevolent authoritarian" leader. The nation looks united on the surface, but ethnically/ regionally/religiously fragmented. While the people are gasping for breath, the politicians that thrive on chaos seem to think that Nigeria is doing well, and they perceive any person who questions why things are so bad in the society, as unpatriotic and anti-Nigeria. This writer would vouch that any person who thinks that Nigeria is moving in the right direction is either a "pathological liar or insane." How long can the people endure? Nigerians should say no to the selfish politics of power-shift or regional hegemony. For peaceful co-existence political power must be shared and not dominated by any group. If not, why are the groups living together?

Again, Nigeria should not blame the world for its underdevelopment. Nigeria should not seat idly by waiting for an international forum to tell her why she is underdeveloped. The society should look in ward and summon political courage to deal with those that defecate on the society. Nigeria is in charge of its destiny; exogenous factors have little or no effect on what Nigeria has become (or will become). As this writer has noted elsewhere, the progress of Nigeria depends on the manner with which the leaders fashion and implement its domestic policies. The arcane political process and predatory pattern of autocratic rule is the major cause of the nation’s malady.

Nigeria should show the world that it could manage its domestic affairs by conducting a smooth democratic transition. The world will continue to see Nigeria through the binoculars the society provides it. Nigeria should not expect accolade from Nigerians (or the world) where it deserves condemnation. The politicians should pull out of the dark political tunnel in which they are hoarding before it is too late. Power shift, power retention, and zoning of political offices should be discouraged. Everyone should have an equal opportunity to participate in the political process, but should play the game of politics, as the principle dictates. Democracy dies without liberalization of the political environment and without rules.

However, if the state operates under the rule of law and protects the civil and human rights of the citizens and ensures equity and provides economic opportunities to everyone irrespective of religion or ethnicity. If democracy were practiced, as its principle dictates, and if the nation were restructured into true federalism, there would be no need for the power shift (or retention) politics, which serves the interests of the ethnic and religious fundamentalists. The ethnic, linguistic, cultural and religious diversity of Nigeria should be transformed into its strength, instead of being used as instrument of disunity. The ethnic groups should bring together their respective democratic culture to build a unified and true democratic nation anchored on true federalism. More important, Nigeria should be transformed into a mobile society where every Nigerian (irrespective of tribe and religion) could settle and raise their children in any part of the country and contribute to the development of the community without being molested or classified as a foreigner. The politicians should practice politics of unity and not politics of division. Pitting one section of the society against the other and fanning the amber of hate and division works against the unity and development of this great nation. There is an indisputable link between political environment and economic condition in any society.

The uncertainty surrounding the 2007 elections stirs anxieties about Nigeria’s unity and it’s democratic future. The outcome of the elections could determine whether it would break up or become a stable, united and prosperous nation. Nigerians should beware of the power-shift and power-retention warlords who are working assiduously to change the voting behavior of the gullible masses. The people should elect national leaders of integrity with good ideas on how to restructure the nation into a true democratic and federal state to meet the aspirations of the citizens. Nigeria needs leaders who possess and appreciates democratic values and respects opposing views. The society had thought that OBJ were a great hope to move Nigeria forward, but he turned out to be a great hoax that is moving Nigeria backward socially, politically and economically. It is possible to build a united Nigeria without the much-trumpeted divisive power shift or power retention politics. If you prefer the better alternative route to national unity, take a positive action. The 2007 election is the time!

Victor E. Dike

Robot  Villager

# 1 By Victor E. Dike, CEO, Center for Social Justice and Human Development (CSJHD), in Sac...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 22.07.2006 07:31

Chinedu

# 2 Dike wrote: "There has always been the palpable fear of domination by one ethnic/regional/ religious group over the other. This is because the federal government monopolizes power and any group whose homeboy (or home girl) is holding power at the center would get the lion share of the national cake and could even prevent others from getting their meager share. This has contributed to the fierce struggle for power shift (and retention) and some groups will willing employ undemocratic instruments to acquire and keep political power. How long will this primitive and retrogressive politics last? The politicians should re-access their strategies and refocus their attention on national discourse and debate on ways to maintain political stability and national unity and achieve sustainable economic growth and development." There isn't just a fear of socioplitical domination of one group over another. There is the REALITY of domination, which is why the Hausa/Yoruba controlled Federal government can triumphantly ride roughshod into the Niger Delta and extract the resources therein without consideration for ensuing pollution and impoverishment. The reality of domination is the reason why a President of Igbo extraction may be a nigh impossible prospect at the moment. You cannot build a society that works without considering the foundational aspects of its daily Realities. And the most poignant aspects of Nigerian-ness are the multiple, if confounding, barriers of ethnicity. The answers do not necessarily lie in taking sides in the homogenous Nigerian nation versus diverse Nigerian nation debate. The reasonable approach is to ACKNOWLEDGE the ethnic problem (if so it might be called) WITH SUFFICIENT RESPECT AND FIND WAYS TO DEAL WITH IT IN AN INTERGRATIVE MANNER. It is usually the approach of a number of commentators to outrightly dismiss the reality of ethnicism - prefering to view it as a gnat-like distraction in the pursuit of a Nigerian oneness. The apparent singularity of this pursuit reflects a tragic folly based on intellectual refusal to accomodate alternate views of self-derived African geopolitical formations. In other words, we have lost a fundamental respect for the African ethnic group as a politically relevant unit, and prefer to focus on the institution of the conscienceless, spiritless, shallow State which derives relevance from its bizarre pretence of dubious modernity. Posted by Chinedu| 22.07.2006 08:21

kvin33  Villager

# 3 If an abomination is not resisted and redressed, soon it becomes the tradition. The politics of ethnicity, regions, power shift is fundamentally flawed. It looks good to the person or group who benefits in the short term (S/S, S/E in this case) but it is untenable in the long run. The seemingly growing acceptance of tribal, ethnic, religious and sectional politics must be alarming to anyone who cares about peace in this part of Africa. Many seem to concede very dangerously that power shift occured in 1999. No! The South West happened to produce a candidate who won in 1992 and was cheated out of his MANDATE. If someone is brought down inside the 18 yard box, just before they score, they deserve a penalty kick. That's what happened in 1999. We should STOP agreeing, concedeing that there was POWER SHIFT in 1999, because there wasn't. My S/E brothers. Oh My S/E brothers. Where will this nation be without you? Without your love and yes your blood? How can you accept the unacceptable? How can you be so desperate you forget who you are? How did we get here? Clamoring for power shift as if we couldn't win fair and square? Where has the courage gone? Where have the principles gone? Have our ancestors finally left us? We may have lost the war, but it is no excuse to loose our souls. Look, I understand the urge but we must control it. A better Nigeria is in the long term interest of the Igbo Man (more than any other group). Power shift is a short term solution Do not fall into the trap. Regional, Ethnic, politics is a game you are not designed to play. Reject it! Not just because there are far better players in Nigeria, but because IT IS WRONG. My brothers from the North. Oh my Northern brothers. What is this fear? What is this treasure you seek to protect so? Playing the same game over and over is a bad strategy. Sooner or Later it'll be compromised. Unity anchored on divisive politics knows no boundaries. Today it is N/S, tommorow it'll be xtian N/Islam N, then core North and.... Look, i don't think any one is more tribalist than another but like Dike has said and any objective observer will concede, it doesn't matter because everyone is suffering. The North need to become Nigerians and stop this power shift nonsense, the S/E and S/S should stop this turn-by-turn scheme because it encourages kleptocracy and institutionalizes divisiveness. The SW needs to get off the fence to safe guard the future. Throw up candidates if for nothing else at least for the principle of democracy. For God's sake we have a chance to make history in 2007, we must find the courage, the will, and the humility to cease it. Many still blame the British for 1914? Imagine? It is almost 100 years! I guess if the British couldn't build Nigeria, who are we to dream? This is pathetic. There is no imaginary border that can undo what God has done. Igbos, Yorubas, Edo, Fulani, Kanuri, Ijaw..... We are all neighbours. True, we were never one nation before the british, but is Nigeria such a bad Idea? ECOWAS, AU, etc are attempts by Africans to realize that neighbours share a common destiny and do better when they emphasize their common humanity. You don't get to choose your family, you are lucky if you get to choose your friends. Look, anyone who prays for the break-up of Nigeria should look closely at Ivory Coast, Ethiopia and Eritrea, Sudan, Uganda, Liberia ... that's just in Africa. Look it will not be peaceful! Those who don't care about war and death should talk to the palestinians, lebanese, isrealis, Iraqis and Biafrans. Injustice and Inequity cannot and should not be tolerated however. That is the fight we must engage, in the Senate, the House, in civil society, in law enforcement, everywhere. As Dike said, the rules and might I add, their enforcement are crucial and critical in this battle. Don't just fight for the presidency, fight for the police, EFCC, ICPC, fight for their independence and for good fearless leaders. That way whoever gets into office at any level, will be watched like a hawk! It will be a long and difficult struggle, but it'll be worth it. Just like our ancestors knew, you don't sow and harvest in a day or without breaking a sweat. Courage! A break-up of Nigeria may well be inevitable, but believe me, we'll just have 3 or 4 smaller "Nigeria" Nations with similar problems, religion, ethnic distributions, north-south issues, black skin and fair skin, caste systems, gender etc. If you doubt me go to any state in the federation and take a look at state politics! They'll all have the same problems to solve, all with no expertise -so why not solve it in Nigeria?? A lot of nations can learn from our success, we can be the true Giant of Africa. Why can't we be a good example to Iraqis??? We can aspire to be better or we can let our petty politics consume us. Power shift, rotation, turn, as a constitutional principle (even at the political party level) is an abomination that could become a tradition! Wake up my people. Posted by kvin33| 22.07.2006 18:53

gwobezentashi  Villager

# 4 Woah! Kvin33 that was awesome!! More grease to your elbows. I like the my people oh my people bit (even if it was not quite what you said). Reminds me of sweet victory in the TTA debate as per the eulogy of no other than the Chief sorcerer Wabaracadabra. We however now can see that TTA is not over yet as it's not over until the fat congo shiner sings, "Goodbye my summer love". I second most of what you have said but caution that we must still recognise the place of "zoning" (with a small z) in our polity. This is part of our constitution and is recognised even in the USA in affirmative action to encourage inclusiveness and to even out development. This is behind the federal character principle. The purpose is to encourage other parts which are less developed to catch up with the rest and to discourage the "ghetto-isation" of any parts. The problem is that the parts which were supposed to catch up have become complacent because there has been no compulsion to progress due to poor leadership. Further, it seems that we have now elevated the dogma to a level of mediocrity such that it is now seen as the end rather than a means. I will therefore agree that we must say No to Zoning (with a capital Z) which is the joke that says you rotate power from here to Timbuktu this and that. The zoning I favour, says that if the President comes from the North and is a muslim, then the VP should come from the South and be a christian. Those types of common sense arrangements that have always been with us. We must not throw the baby out with the bath water. There is merit in the federal character principle but it must fulfil its short to medium term imperatives rather than become a permanent fixture in our political terrain. There must be a plan to phase it out altogether at some point when it has achieved its objective but there must be a conscious effort to assure its end goals. Call it what you like but there was a conscious decision by the political class in 1999 that the President should be from the SW. This was certainly how it was sold to the electorate in the North and how Ekwueme was ditched at the last minute. You may describe it as a unilateral decision on the part of the Northern elite though they call it a magnanimous gesture. Too bad for them if it is not reciprocated afterall they never cut a deal with the whole electorate. They only allegedly cut it among themselves and if they choose to screw each other, well what is new? They've been doing it to us for years. If however, they are unable to deliver on their bargain with their people, then they all may be politically finished which may not necessarily be a bad thing. It would probably enable another generation of young Northern leaders to emerge. The problem however is that the new emergent young Northern leadership of Makarfi, Muazu, Kwankwaso, Dariye, Nyame, Akume, Kure, Yar Adua, late Waziri all sat in on a PDP meeting in 2003 in which their power shift deal was allegedly revalidated. Most of them have not performed anyway so it may be good riddance to bad rubbish afterall. I would want to believe that these debates are healthy as long as we learn from them and stay on the course of democracy. Ours is only 7 years old and we have to continue on the learning curve. What we must not allow to happen is for the inordinate ambition of a few(or ONE) to bring the house down. Aluta! Gwobezentashi Posted by gwobezentashi| 22.07.2006 20:02

Chinedu

# 5 Kvin33 wrote: "Many seem to concede very dangerously that power shift occured in 1999. No! The South West happened to produce a candidate who won in 1992 and was cheated out of his MANDATE. If someone is brought down inside the 18 yard box, just before they score, they deserve a penalty kick. That's what happened in 1999. We should STOP agreeing, concedeing that there was POWER SHIFT in 1999, because there wasn't." Mr Kvin33, it is people like you with your inane arguments that confuse issues. Can you see how self-contradictory you are in your write-up above? On one hand you declare that power shift is "dangerous", and on the other hand you state that in the light of events of June 12, it was proper that the Presidency had to be given to the SOUTHWEST as compensation. You of course cannot understand that by taking that position, you immediately recognize, albeit in your unaware way, the POLITICAL relevance of the ethnoregional unit. Why was it necessary to compensate the SOUTHWEST at all? What was it that the SOUTHWEST was deemed to have lost that made it necessary for the next civilian President to emerge from that area? Why wouldn't it have to been just as normal for the next civilian President to emerge from ANY part of Nigeria since we are all one nation with equal and homogenous aspiration? Why must the SOUTHWESTERN origin of MKO be a determinant of the origin of the next President after June 12? Please try to look at things a bit more clearly. Power shift is not an end unto itself - it is a means to an end - the end being EQUAL political participation, at all levels, of different ethnic groups of Nigeria. Some of us aver that this is the fundamental basis on which the reality of a homogenous Nigerian nationhood has the best chance. Posted by Chinedu| 23.07.2006 07:54