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Planning is unarguably a
Herculean task, but it becomes much more daunting in an uncertain
sociopolitical and economic environment for which
Nigeria
represents today. The nation’s perennial power problem, combined with other
institutional inadequacies, is exerting inflationary pressures on
organizations, which are passing the high costs of producing good and services
on to the consumers. This article discusses the difficult task of planning in
an unstable politico-economy and measures to improve the condition of things
for the people to achieve their dreams and aspirations.
Recently, a friend of this
writer resident in the United States poured out his frustration on the
precarious rising costs of goods and services (and particularly building
materials) in Nigeria as he has been struggling to build a hut for his family.
He lamented that the price of cement, rod, timber, sand, chip, gravel, water,
and other building materials, which changes everyday, has made planning and
budgeting irrelevant and has often prolonged the estimated time for the
completion of projects. In fact, uncertainty and frustration could lead to
abandoning his project if prices of material continue to ratchet upward.
The uncertain environment and
price escalation has negatively affected the demand for other goods and
services and business activities thereby increasing the nation’s unemployment,
inflation and poverty rates and thus her economic “Misery Index”. Misery has,
however, been defined as a state of great unhappiness and emotional distress.
Inflation and unemployment are the main components of ‘Misery Index’, which is
said to have been created by economist Arthur Okun (Kurt Badenhausen
-Forbes.com, January.30, 2008). Nigerians are increasingly feeling the pinch of
the bad economic condition as there is no assistance from the government to
cushion their sufferings.
Like in any other society,
the condition of things in
Nigeria
is defined by the effectiveness of its leadership and social institutions. The
main problem with the economy, as it has been emphasized, is the nation’s
institutional deficiencies and corruption that lead to high costs of producing
goods and services. And this affects household budgets. According the National
Bureau of Statistics (NBS),
Nigeria's
inflation rate rose to 9.7 per cent in May from 8.2 per cent the previous
month. Inflation was, however, about 6.6 per cent last December. The agency has
also observed that “The composite consumer price index went up by 1.9 per cent
to 177.6 points in May 2008 as compared to 174.3 observed in April 2008”
(Guardian, June 25, 2008).
Some people could argue that
inflation and economic uncertainty is currently a global problem; but the
problem with
Nigeria
is that there are no concerted efforts and effective plans on the ground to
tackle the problem. How much longer can the people take this ‘double jeopardy’
of inflation and unemployment?
Because of the sloppy
record-keeping habit of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the nation’s
unemployment and inflation (misery) figures may have been understated. How
would inflation and unemployment figures be determined in a society without a
reliable personal identification? And with the large number people in the
informal sector of the economy how does the agency determine who is really
unemployed? A search for answers has not produced any positive results. 
Bad governance and low
productivity is, however, dragging the economy down; and this has increased the
uncertainty in knowing the amount of resources needed to complete a particular
project in the society. Despite its astonishing lapses in judgment and the fact
that the society is now bellowing with outrage that it is “too slow”, the
present administration is not doing anything serious to improve the supply side
of the economy.
There were unlimited
opportunities in
Nigeria
in the 1960s but the long duration of ‘leadership without moral purpose’ has
destroyed everything. The levels of uncertainties, contradictions, and
absurdities in
Nigeria
today, which are beyond pardon, have prevented analysts, sociologists,
economists and other scholars from making a fair prediction of the
sociopolitical and economic future of the society. This has made living in
Nigeria
very challenging and has increased public discontent and disaffection. It has
been noted that about 70 per cent of the population is living on less that one
US dollar a day!
There are, however, inherent
risks associated with living in an unstable politico-economy, including rising
crime, unhealthy business environment, and uncertainty in market prices and
demands, and uncertainty in planning and budgeting for projects. The
uncertainties in the society and rising unemployment, poverty, and hardship are
forcing many young professionals to leave
Nigeria
to unknown destinations. Some of the people in this group with the false hope
of get rich quick abroad and some of those who are stuck in the society who are
‘hoping against hope’ are often driven to the dishonest “419” scam activity for
survival. And this has stained the image of
Nigeria
and the many hard working and honest individuals at home and in Diaspora. Of
what use is a government that is incapable of meeting the needs of the
citizens.
The people need a democratic
leader who will bring the change the society needs.
Nigeria
is a beautiful nation that has been bastardized by the greedy, selfish, corrupt
and visionless leaders. Living in
Nigeria
could be as enjoyable as living in any other beautiful, stable and prosperous
society, only if the leaders would create an enabling environment for the
people to live and plan for the future. Many of the present political leaders
of
Nigeria
are “deceitful”; the nation may not witness peace and prosperity if they
continue to wallow “in deceit and corruption.” The leaders and followers should
take “Pride in Workmanship”, and not in perpetrating fraud and corruption.
To spur the fledging economy
and help the citizens to plan better the Yar’Ardua administration should adopt
appropriate and corrective monetary and fiscal measures to tackle the nation’s
energy problem so as to improve the people’s confidence in the system and to
properly regulate business cycle or the ups and downs in parts of an economy.
It has been noted that social expectations and institutional conditions control
business cycle in a society. The uncertainty in the economy will continue
without a comprehensive energy policy to ensure steady supply of fuel and
electricity to the economy.
This point has been re-echoed
and admirably emphasized by analysts yet the leaders are not serious in
dismantling the monopoly of PHCN (the offspring of NEPA). There should be a
general and radical reconstruction of the polity because simply changing the
name of NEPA to Power Holding Company of Nigeria would hardly make any magic,
just as the quality of education and literacy rate has not improved since the
UPE program has been transformed to UBE. To improve the situation the teachers
must be motivated. Thus tackling the root causes of the problems will solve the
problem for good.
During periods of inflation
(in a normal society) the central bank would adjust interest rates by adjusting
the lending rate (among other things), which would affect the liquidity. Sadly,
the CBN has not been able to control the amount of money in circulation so as
to tame inflation ravaging the economy (BusinessDay, July 1, 2008). A good
income tax system is another powerful tool to fine-tune the economy as it
provides a reliable source of revenue for national planning. The nation,
unfortunately, still relies mostly on slippery oil revenue for national
planning and management.
The society may not become a
stable and prosperous nation enviable by the world if it remains politically
unstable and economically uncertain. The present administration should truly
tackle the Niger Delta crisis to maintain political stability and diversify the
economy by increasing non-oil-based economic activities to ensure that
Nigerians have enough goods and services and at affordable prices. The
government should adopt reasoned policies to remove barriers to increased
productivity, truly tame corruption, and improve the rule of law and public
services.
Nigerians have a big role to
play in making the changes they want to see in the society. As Mahatma Gandhi
has observed, “Be the change you want to see in the world.” Thus
the people could only change the situation for good only if they would
positively change their mentality and learn to hold the leaders accountable for
their actions because like dictators, the political leaders of
Nigeria
are in “power without responsibility” (Stanley Baldwin, former British Prime
Minister). The leaders and followers should also learn to create wealth and
values in the economy instead of idling away and bickering over derivation
formula for collecting monthly handouts.
Thus the political leaders
and business leaders should focus on the issues that affect the people daily.
Although
Nigeria’s
economic problems are linked with the nation’s institutional deficiencies,
business leaders and those in the educational sector should strive to create
new knowledge and products and services the public needs. They should also
provide insights and practical tools to tackle the nation’s myriads
socioeconomic problems and change the society for the better.
It must be said without
equivocation, that the only sure way for
Nigeria
to achieve peace, prosperity, and stability is simply for everyone
(individuals, businesses, and all the three levels of government) to do the
right thing! Specifically, the present government should untangle the root
causes of its lackluster performance and increase its responsiveness to the
needs of the people. It has been noted that higher productivity in government
will positively affect productivity in the private sector. Finally, addressing
the unrelenting increase in the prices of goods and services and the associated
uncertainties in the society would require fixing the nation’s dismal social infrastructure,
financial, educational, and the regulatory systems. This will improve the
supply side of the economy and create a stable politico-economy in which the
citizens could live, plan, and enjoy a better quality of life.
Victor E. Dike is the author of Leadership without Moral
Purpose: A Study of the Obasanjo Administration, 2003-2007
(forthcoming)
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Authors 
Posted by Robot| 07.07.2008 22:34