A Succession Formula: An Imperative For Sustenance of Nigerian Democracy.

The recurrent political crises in Nigeria whenever there is a change in government may very well be linked to the absence of a commonly accepted succession formula. The absence of a clear successor or ‘heir apparent’ so to say, creates a sort of vacuum on the political arena that warrants every Tom Dick and Harry to lay claim electoral victory even when there is nothing on ground to single him or her out for leadership or to demonstrate his acceptability to the voting public. Since the ground is open, everyone is a winner like in the Lagos lottery. Thus we don’t have a looser not to talk of a gallant one in our political playing field.

Take the United States of America for example, the search for Bush’s successor did not begin at the 2008 Presidential primaries, rather Obama was picked up as far back as 2004 after an electrifying charismatic speech at that year’s Democratic National Convention. He stood apart from his competition when he delivered his address which included a personal recount of his biography with the theme that all Americans were connected in ways that surpassed political, cultural, and geographical differences. That powerful address at the convention was the beginning of his journey to the White House. After that speech, it was apparent to many an American that a leader was in the making. His words, demeanour, precedents, and political philosophy clearly articulated in his book ‘The Audacity of Hope’ cut the picture of the kind of leader Americans were looking out for post- Bush. Then began the systematic grooming by the ‘kingmakers’ in the Democratic Party. 

By the time they went into the Primaries, it was clear to even his most antagonistic rivals that to whom the cap fits, let him wear. Thus all the Clintons and the Edwards happily threw in the towel and rallied behind him to succeed. Today Clinton is working with Obama to build a new America; whereas she (if she were Nigerian) could as well have left the party or formed her own to get a Presidential ticket at all cost and thereafter gone to court to unseat Obama for whatever reason her lawyers may have advised her.

By then, the fading popularity of the ruling Republican Party accentuated by Bush’s personal failings as a leader had already made a Democratic takeover of the American presidency imminent. It would therefore have taken either a miracle or outright manipulations of the process for the Republicans to have clenched onto power like the PDP in Nigeria did in a do-or-die fashion in 2007 and are still doing it in the Ekiti re-run elections. The mere thought of opposition, winning an election in Nigeria is a taboo to the incumbent politician.

In Britain, The Queen or King as the case may be is the ceremonial Head-of-State and succession to the throne is by royal heritage but the Prime Minister who is the political leader is not directly elected by the voting public. He is only elected by his constituency to represent them in the Parliament-the House of Commons. If in the course of his being a member of the Parliament, he becomes very popular in the ruling party he could become the Leader of the party in the Parliament. This effectively positions him to become the Prime Minister at the expiration of the incumbent’s tenure if the party secures majority of seats in the House in a general election. The beauty of this system is that, the Party is supreme and the voters cast their votes for the party and not for a candidate. Thus personal rivalry and in-fighting is almost eliminated or reduced to a minimum.

In South Africa despite their relatively younger foray in the democratic experiment has stably evolved a formula in which the sitting leader of the ANC automatically becomes the presidential candidate of that party whenever there is election. Thus whenever they are voting for an ANC Leader, the knowledge at the back of their mind is that a potential President is in the making. Such grooming not only prepares the leader for the challenges of good governance but also affords the public an opportunity to assess the potential leader critically outside of power. The goodness in this is that he could be dispensed with before he becomes President if, during his period of grooming, it is discovered that he is unfit to hold that office.

It is this formula that saw the emergence of Jacob Zuma as SA’s president without rancour. Even Kgalema, the Acting President, who replaced Mbeki, did not cash in on the opportunity of incumbency to contest the polls as he could have done were it to be in Nigeria. Even his choice as replacement for Mbeki was instructive. The ANC jumped the President of the Party and picked its deputy obviously in order to preserve Zuma as a presidential candidate for the election.

In nearby Ghana, the pendulum has of late been swinging to and fro between the two major parties every time the tenure of one incumbent expires. It has perhaps become a silent expectation of the people that once a ruling party exhausts its tenure, they should be ready to give way for the opposition to try their hands on the loom of leadership as well. Thus no one is averse to the idea of handing over power to an opposition party. Once out of power the defeated party begins to rally support from the public in anticipation for the next electoral contest mainly by not only pointing out the failures of the ruling party but also proffering alternatives. It’s a form of power rotation that eliminates rancour, violence and post election litigations. And it appears Ghanaians are quite happy with it.

In Nigeria, this transition culture is virtually absent. This may partially be attributable to the fact that Nigerian leaders do not believe that power is transient. Once elected, they assume this impossible perception that it is forever and hence a successor is not (nor should he dare appear) on the horizon. Should he have the courage to show up, all attempts including blackmail, intimidation, and sometimes outright elimination, are made by the incumbent to destroy such an ‘intruder'. Thus having a Presidential ambition is one ‘offence’ that attracts immediate and extreme repercussions from a sitting President. If one doubts me here, he should ask Amb.Babagana Kingibe.

This was also the case between Obasanjo and Atiku. All was well between the President and his Vice until iniquity (read ambition) was found in the Vice. Atiku’s legitimate ambition was regarded as a mark of disloyalty to the then President. As far as Obassnjo was concerned, Atiku did not ‘qualify’ to succeed him even though the constitution positioned him to become an automatic successor should the President die, resign or become incapable of performing his functions.

The choice of Yar’Adua by Obasanjo to succeed him was basically an adhoc decision, neither sanctioned nor anticipated by the ruling Party. It was just an exercise aimed at spiting the Turaki and making a mockery of his towering profile. Yar’Adua himself was not prepared emotionally and experientially to become President. The same thing happened when Shagari emerged candidate of the NPN, he was an unwilling candidate. Even Obasanjo who took over from Gen. Murtala in his first military government was an unwilling leader then, and in his second coming, had to be cajoled by the power brokers of the time of which IBB was chief. Perhaps only Babangida, Buhari and Abacha wilfully took over the reins of governance, but they were military men.

The absence of this formula has left power-broking in the hands of political godfathers and the incumbents. Whereas George Bush, Mbeki, Kuffour, Blair, and a host of other ex-leaders across the globe had no control over who succeeded them, we had a former president Obasanjo who declared that he knew those who would not succeed him. It is hard to imagine any aspiring Nigerian politician who does not believe he needs the endorsement of the sitting President or State Governor instead of that of the voters to succeed. This accounts for frequent cross-carpeting from the opposition parties to the ruling party whenever elections are approaching.

These godfathers ration power to their relations and cronies with the sole aim of cornering our collective wealth and not for any purpose related to nation building. In this system, the wishes and aspirations of the people occupy the backstage in the calculations and manipulations of the power mongers. This explains why a fresh graduate is the Chairman of my Local Government Area despite the availability of many more educated and experienced hands who contested that election with him. The willing and ambitious leaders are denied power while it is foisted on unwilling and ill-prepared fellows and this through means very far from being democratic. The simple reason being that these people are easier to be manipulated to achieve the selfish ambitions of their godfathers.

To worsen the matter, the Parties’ constitutions which are supposed to guide their activities and foster progressive maturation of a succession formula are often not adhered to by the political parties themselves. The rules are arbitrarily set aside at the whims of the power brokers whenever their personal agenda is under threat. For instance, the former president Obasanjo after he failed to obtain a constitutional amendment to elongate his tenure still managed to singlehandedly doctor the PDP's constitution to ensure he remains the only qualified person to head the BOT of the party. Those who acquiesced to this strange provision did not give a thought to the possibility that the only qualified person for that seat could die and leave a vacuum, which no living being could fill! They probably had reasons to believe that their benefactor is immortal.

One of the hallmarks of a decent democratic system is the ability of the system to groom future leaders who learn the ropes through participation in the democratic political process. It is the bedrock of a self-regulating framework that works almost on autopilot. Meaning that no single individual is or should be indispensable or qualified to commandeer or hold a nation to ransom. Unfortunately Nigerian leaders like to be seen as messiahs or indispensables without whom the system would collapse. This is a farce.

Until our politicians are ready to allow a succession formula evolve through consistent and rigorous adherence to the rules of the game, we may just but continue to wallow in political darkness and the much desired democracy will continue to elude us.

And Ayoka Almost Got It Right.

This woman almost made (good) history, when she resigned her position as the REC in the re-run elections in Ekiti State and went underground. She had cited attempts by some powers that be to compel her to act contrary to the rules and her conscience. She even invoked her religious faith to back up her novel decision. But unfortunately for reasons yet to be made public by her, she suddenly showed up in Abuja and went into a secret meeting with the INEC Chairman who happens to be a man reputed for brazen violation of electoral laws. It is instructive to note that the Electoral Act stipulates that a REC is not answerable to any Authority and is not controlled by the INEC chairman, why then did she report to Iwu ostensibly to take instructions from him?

Now, those who saw her resignation as a stalemate that could have  precipitated the crisis may have been relieved that she stepped back into the saddle but I have serious issues with her integrity. How does she want the world to believe that her meeting with Iwu did not twist her arm’s to compromise her conscience and continue with a process she knows was going on against the rules? How can we convince ourselves that the result she subsequently announced is not at the behest of Iwu?

If Ayoka could jettison her conscience so easily or if there was no threat to her clean conscience ab initio and by extension, no call for her resignation then what did she set out to achieve with the unprecedented drama? Her action has cast real doubts in my mind about her moral capacity to superintend the re-run election or any other election for that matter. Even the Bible, which I believe she reads based on her profession of being a Christian, says in James. 5:12: But above all things,. Let your yea be yea; and your nay, nay; lest ye fall into condemnation.

Now that the deal is done, Ayoka must tell the world who and who tried to (or influenced) her in Ekiti state with the possibility of the law enforcement agents investigating them. In the United States, such overt or covert attempts to subvert the electoral process are viewed seriously and punished. A sitting Governor of llinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich was docked for attempting to auction Obama’s vacant seat in the Senate. Finally, the INEC must look at the Electoral Act and the INEC Establishment Act again to see what the provisions are on what to do when a REC resigns (or dies) midway in the voting process. If there is no clear directive, then an urgent amendment should be forwarded to the Senate by The President for ratification in order to forestall such an ugly vacuum being created in the future.

Heroic as her attempt to resign was, the sudden volt-face is a big let down and an embarrassment. She lost a big opportunity there to unmask the forces behind rigging in the state and thereby failed to demonstrate her integrity in the face of corruption. Yar’Adua should forward her name to the Senate for removal now that the re-run election is over.

And its amazing how electoral officers in Nigeria enjoy being in the news. Nobody as much as heard the name of the Electoral Commission’s chairmen in the US, Ghana, and now South Africa throughout the period of the peaceful elections in those countries. Here it was Iwu jumping from one media house to the other granting interviews and press conferences or going to court to bar some candidates and generally making the system so unnecessarily rowdy while his main duties remained unattended to. It is for these reasons that the proposed amendments to the Electoral act to whittle down the powers of the INEC Chairman are very desirable and welcome.

Robot  # 1 | 06.05.2009 06:40

Until our politicians are ready to allow a succession formula evolve through consistent and rigorous adherence to the rules of the game, we may just but continue to wallow in political darkness and the much desired democracy will continue to elude us....Read the full article.