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The Future of Nigeria (II) - How It Could Go Horribly Wrong Print E-mail
Written by Shoko Loko Bangoshe   
Saturday, 22 December 2007

Welcome to Hell; welcome to Nigeria

By Jane Warhurst, International News Agency

16 April 2027

 

It is nearly dusk, and I am in Abuja being driven in a luxury car towards Aso Rock to meet the man they call "the Genocidal General". As our car speeds towards its destination, many thoughts race through my mind - like how fortunate I am to have been able to land this rare opportunity to take a peek into the mind of the man many people call "The Most Evil Man in the World". I still remember the call to the bureau office in London asking us if we wanted to send "one of our people over so that the general could put his side of the story across to the world"; how many of my friends and families remonstrated with me over my decision to go; how nervous I was before the trip, and now that I'm here, I'm wondering what I should expect.

Indeed, what kind of a man am I going to interview? This, after all, a man who has passed a decree officially converting the country to his personal property; a man under whose rule death squads roam the country routinely and indiscriminately killing whoever they like; a man who has laughed in the face of world opprobrium and declared "I do not give a flying fuck about what the world thinks about my regime, as long as all it does is to think". On the other hand, he is known to be a highly intelligent and cultured man who does not fit into the stereotype of the crude dictator.

But for some, this intelligence borders on madness. "If the world had a conscience, it would have invaded Nigeria a long time ago to free the people from the grip of this lunatic", rages Eddy Okorie, a human rights activist, from his base in London. "This man has done worse than what Hitler, Idi Amin and Bokassa together could have done, yet all the West can do is to impose sanctions - sanctions that have little effect". Indeed, the regime of Lieutenant-General Josiah Killango has waxed stronger since he came to power, despite the almost universal agreement that his regime is unparallelled in its brutality.

I am jerked from my thoughts as the car slows to a stop and I realise that we have arrived at our destination - a huge palatial mansion which dominates the landscape with its sheer size. I step out of the car, still wondering what kind of man exactly I am going to meet. I am ushered into an ornately furnished room by a smartly dressed officer, offered a choice of refreshments and asked to wait for a while - the general will see me shortly.

After a short while, General Killango emerges from a side door. He is very much like he appears in the media - lean, with a permanently belligerent expression on his face, as though he is expecting you do dare him to do some reckless deed. "So - you were able to make it, then?" he booms. "Good! Oya - let's start the interview. Fire away!"

I start by asking him about why under his regime, millions of people have died in state sponsored killings. He looks at me for one moment and laughs. "Typical Western journalist! Always looking for the effect instead of trying to find out the cause." He cocks his head to one side and gives a crooked smile. "But of course, the sensational image of the brutal dictator is the one the sells in the West, not so?" I start to protest, saying that it is right for people to why such large numbers of people are dying, but he cuts me short. "Don't give me that nonsense!" he barks. "Before my rule, when people were dying slow painful deaths due to poverty, where were you? Now that I'm putting them out their misery quickly, it is now right for people to know, eh? Hypocrisy in its Sunday best!"

I am dumbfounded - this isn't how I expected the interview to go. So I try another tack implicitly suggested by him. "Can you tell us a bit more about how you came to power, and what you motivation was?" At this, he visibly relaxes. "Yeeees... quite simply, I wanted power so I that I could use it for my own ends. I wanted to be able to acquire as much as I liked and make people to do whatever I wanted. I had wanted this for as long as I can remember, especially after I saw how our leaders who wielded such power were feted by the masses, despite the fact that these leaders continued to crush them into the ground.

"So, I did what any self-respecting power-hungry Nigerian would do - I joined the army as an officer round about 1999, when Nigeria was transitioning to so-called democracy. I made myself very popular with the junior and middle-ranking officers, but I concealed my true intentions because I felt the time was not yet ripe to strike.

"Eleven years later, the story was very different. Yar'Adua's administration was floundering very badly, after failing to deliver on many promises. The anti-corruption drive was stalled, frustrated by so many corrupt politicians. Electricity supply was worse than ever. And most importantly, security was out of control - especially in the Niger Delta, where the various militia had made the place completely ungovernable so that oil output was now only a tenth of what it used to be five years ago, and as a consequence, oil prices were nearing 140 dollars a barrel.

"So I started plotting my takeover. After careful discussions with various middle ranking officers, I had built a core group of men who would go on to become leaders in the new regime. And then, we struck. I won't bore you with the details of the planning that went on beforehand or what happened on the day itself. All I need to say is that there was surprisingly little resistance to the coup, so unpopular was the current administration, and what little opposition there was had been subdued within twenty four hours. A National Military Council was named, with me at the head as Head of State. Of course, I made the usual noises decrying the state of the nation, and how bad leadership had got us here, and how I was determined to be the broom that would sweep away the old guard."

I ask General Killango whether he had decided before the coup to take the action that he would become notorious for - the killing of the one hundred and thirty seven politicians as part of this 'sweeping'. "Of course", he said. "I had realised a long time ago that Nigerians may have fawned on their leaders in public, but they had a lot of anger towards them in private. It was very common for them to talk about Nigeria needing the Rawlings treatment." He refers here to the late Jerry Rawlings, ex-leader of Ghana who executed eight military officers on coming to power nearly fifty years ago. "So I was determined to out-do Rawlings and make myself immediately popular in the people's eyes. I compiled a list of leaders who were widely regarded as corrupt, and determined that they would be made an example of when I came to power."

And make an example he certainly did. All of Nigeria's former and present leaders who were still alive then - Yakubu Gowon, Olusegun Obasanjo, Shehu Shagari, Muhammadu Buhari, Ibrahim Babangida, Ernest Shonekan, Abdulsalam Abubakar and Umaru Yar'Adua - as well as a host of other leading politicians were immediately arrested. They were then put on show trials which were little more than public denunciations, and then they were publicly humiliated by having them stripped naked and flogged before they were executed by firing squad. The entire world condemned the execution as an act of barbarism, and Nigeria was suspended from the Commonwealth. General Killango shrugs his shoulders. "The world never condemns acts of corruption and election rigging, but it is very happy to condemn the act of taking out the people who perpetrate corruption and rigging. Anyway, I didn't care what the world thought, because at that moment, the Nigerian people were solidly behind me."

But what about the Niger-Delta war that raged from 2012 to 2014, I ask? What were his views on that? The general bristles. "How many times will I tell you people, it was not a war! It was just military action taken to put down the activity of a few criminals in the Niger Delta area. I had issued an ultimatum to these people to desist from their criminal activity, and they had ignored it. Do you expect a sovereign nation to look on while its resources are being illegally plundered?" I suggest that a more conciliatory approach might have worked with some of the groups at least. "Excuse me, but I do not discuss with criminals!" he exploded.

I divert the topic by asking him about the involvement of the United States government in the war. He chuckles "Of course they deny getting involved. Why would they want to be seen consorting with the same regime they have condemned? But I have said it before, and I will say it again - we were getting help from them. Not officially, of course - but somehow, we found it easier to acquire certain kinds of weapons than it should usually have been. Why did they get involved? Who knows - perhaps it had something to do with the high oil price?"

In any event, the Delta area was pacified after a few years - but at a huge cost. The general had ordered saturation bombing so that the death toll was huge, with most of the dead being innocent citizens. And after the war, most areas were uninhabitable. "But most Nigerians were still solidly behind me, because as I presented it to them, I was liberating an national resource from the hands of a few greedy criminals."

It was at this time that the oppresive nature of the regime began to show itself, as the general began to start jailing critics of the regime who had begun questioning its unwillingness to return to democracy. "Those people were real jokers", the general scoffs. "I do all the hard work of plotting and planning, putting my neck on the line - so that I can return the country to a pack of thieves? Nonsense! But of course, when I was jailing them, I didn't say that at the time. Instead, I let Nigerians know that these people I was jailing were in support of a return to the old corrupt ways, and I could not allow that to happen."

So the country continued its steady slide into dictatorship and economic chaos, as the National Military Council was first purged of any officers opposing him, then then abolished altogether leaving him as Supreme Head of State. The press was routinely harassed and censored by a greatly expanded security service, and several people who were critical of the regime in public ended up disappearing. It was not long before General Killango removed all pretence of caring about the welfare of Nigerians. "To be honest, I was tired of making speeches about progress and achievement when I really wanted to settle down to the business of enjoying power."

General Killango signalled this change of direction by both making himself Life President and unleashing wave after wave of arbitrary terror nationwide in the form of death squads which went from town to town dragging people out at random and shooting them for alleged crimes against the general. "Such methods may seem barbaric to you, but they have worked very well for me as a way of keeping people's minds purged of thoughts of rebellion. It also helps that I don't have to worry about the economy any longer - this means that times are so hard and people are so preoccupied with where their next meal is coming from that they don't have time to think of plotting a revolution. "In fact, the only people I care about our my soldiers, the security services and the people working for the companies that drill oil in the Delta. Everyone else can go hang."

Indeed, life outside Abuja and a few pockets elsewhere is harsh and inhuman. Much of the country exists in a state of semi-anarchy, where the only government representation is in the form of sporadic visits from death squads who kill people and rob them of whatever goods they have.  People have been reduced to living subsistence lives as infrastructure has decayed from prolonged neglect. Disease and premature deaths are rife due to poor sanitation and chronic famine. Pockets of independent communities that fend for themselves as best as they can, but they are almost completely cut off from world as they cannot afford radios or phones to keep in touch, and the press is virtually non-existent. Millions of Nigerians have died under these conditions; many more have migrated to other countries; and those that are left are completely demoralised and have no hope at all that things will change in the near future, so firm a grip does the general have on power.

Meanwhile, Nigerians outside the country call on the international community not to stand by but to take military action and have the general arrested for crimes against humanity. Killango laughs at such calls for action. "The are the same people who are always criticising the West for meddling in Africa's affairs - now they want the West to throw me out? Why should the West get involved in a matter that does not concern it? It has learnt very well from the lesson of Iraq, where it was bogged down until 2012. And of course, it helps that I can turn to China if the West want to be funny. That's why they dare not extend sanctions banning Western oil companies from drilling oil in here - they know that the Chinese will immediately rush in. So I let them drill their oil in peace, protected by the military, they get their oil, they give me my cut and everyone is happy. Anyway, killng me is no guarantee that thing will get better. I'm the only one who can hold the country together right now - get rid of me, and you'll see anarchy that will make Somalia look like child's play."

I leave, terribly despondent. I was hoping that there would be some rational explanation that would give people hope, but I have come away from the interview realising that here is a man who not only is committing a terrible wrong but is also not ashamed to say so. And yet... I wonder whether he is not after all a product of his environment. Could Nigerian leaders not done more to prevent the kinds of conditions that gave his coup legitimacy? Could the international community not have played a more constructive role? But this is all academic, as General Killango sits comfortably in power, unlikely to be moved for a long time.

 


RobotRobot is offline 
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 # 1

var sbtitle1928=encodeURIComponent(The Future ...Read the full article.

Posted by Robot| 22.12.2007 07:15

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EnforcerEnforcer is offline 
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 # 2

No! No way!! This is not likely to happen in a diverse multi-ethnic country like Nigeria. You are unlikely to have any worst situation than Abacha regime was.

I also found the idea of bombing the whole of the Niger Delta to a waste land as impossible scenario, when you consider the number of oil pipelines in that area.

The unlikelihood of this part two scenario goes to show that the only way for Nigeria now is up.

Posted by Enforcer| 22.12.2007 08:59

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akuluounoakuluouno is offline 
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 # 3

Dear Enfor,

You may not be totally correct. Just keep your eye on 2015 the CIA declared date of dissolution of that abominable Lugard construct and watch as the Gen Killango's of the Nigeria world rise to the pinnacle of power in Nigeria. Afterall we have filled that space with all kinds of politics via presidential democracy with nothing to show for it economically or socially. Why, because you can neither rig nor zone the latter two into existence but only through hard work and planning.
Mark u that with the rise in crude prices and Nigeria's overreliance on that monoproduct, competition will be stiff in that area and thus the bombing out of the Delta out existence is a veeritable option in the hands of Killangos of this world. It was expereimented in Ogoniland by the Dauda Komo's of this world and it is possible provided it is short and swift.:evil::evil::evil:
Let me stop here for now seeing that US has eventually tied Africom to future foreign aid.:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Posted by akuluouno| 22.12.2007 13:44

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EnforcerEnforcer is offline 
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=akuluouno;4294974805>Dear Enfor,

You may not be totally correct. Just keep your eye on 2015 the CIA declared date of dissolution of that abominable Lugard construct and watch as the Gen Killango's of the Nigeria world rise to the pinnacle of power in Nigeria. Afterall we have filled that space with all kinds of politics via presidential democracy with nothing to show for it economically or socially. Why, because you can neither rig nor zone the latter two into existence but only through hard work and planning.
Mark u that with the rise in crude prices and Nigeria's overreliance on that monoproduct, competition will be stiff in that area and thus the bombing out of the Delta out existence is a veeritable option in the hands of Killangos of this world. It was expereimented in Ogoniland by the Dauda Komo's of this world and it is possible provided it is short and swift.:evil::evil::evil:
Let me stop here for now seeing that US has eventually tied Africom to future foreign aid.:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:



akuluouno,

I am just worried about what the Son of the Delta will make of that scenario. Aren't you worried?

CIA organised dissolution of the Luggard construction will not reguire the bombing of the whole area to a wasteland, considering the number of refugees that will be trooping to USA and UK. If you know what I mean.

Posted by Enforcer| 22.12.2007 14:07

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Son of the DeltaSon of the Delta is offline 
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=akuluouno;4294974805>Dear Enfor,

You may not be totally correct. Just keep your eye on 2015 the CIA declared date of dissolution of that abominable Lugard construct and watch as the Gen Killango's of the Nigeria world rise to the pinnacle of power in Nigeria. Afterall we have filled that space with all kinds of politics via presidential democracy with nothing to show for it economically or socially. Why, because you can neither rig nor zone the latter two into existence but only through hard work and planning.
Mark u that with the rise in crude prices and Nigeria's overreliance on that monoproduct, competition will be stiff in that area and thus the bombing out of the Delta out existence is a veeritable option in the hands of Killangos of this world. It was expereimented in Ogoniland by the Dauda Komo's of this world and it is possible provided it is short and swift.:evil::evil::evil:
Let me stop here for now seeing that US has eventually tied Africom to future foreign aid.:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:




Ye shall know the truth and the truth shall set you free! I think the killandgos are known.

Whether they decide to hide their Khaki with Agbada or not they are known.

What I know is that no matter how hard the enemies of the Niger Delta try they will fail by God`s grace.

It is very painful when your so-called country men happen to be your greatest enemies.

Alll we should do is split Nigeria so that everyone could have peace.

Posted by Son of the Delta| 22.12.2007 14:22

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Son of the DeltaSon of the Delta is offline 
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=Enforcer;4294974811>akuluouno,

I am just worried about what the Son of the Delta will make of that scenario. Aren't you worried?

CIA organised dissolution of the Luggard construction will not reguire the bombing of the whole area to a wasteland, considering the number of refugees that will be trooping to USA and UK. If you know what I mean.





What the Nigerian state does from day to day is to convince otherwise peaceful people that is only a violent conflict that could lead to the resolution of the conflict.

Posted by Son of the Delta| 22.12.2007 14:24

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Shoko Loko BangosheShoko Loko Bangoshe is offline 
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=Enforcer;4294974769>No! No way!! This is not likely to happen in a diverse multi-ethnic country like Nigeria. You are unlikely to have any worst situation than Abacha regime was.

I also found the idea of bombing the whole of the Niger Delta to a waste land as impossible scenario, when you consider the number of oil pipelines in that area.

The unlikelihood of this part two scenario goes to show that the only way for Nigeria now is up.



Hi Enforcer,

I'm curious. Why do you think that the diverse multi-ethnic nature of Nigeria specifically make this scenario unlikely? After all, General Killango can very easily use this to balkanise people's opposition to him.

Posted by Shoko Loko Bangoshe| 22.12.2007 14:32

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EjaEja is offline 
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SLB, first off could you please clarify : is this the part you said I would like? And, why do you think I would favour this type of scenario? You do not see me as a potential Killango do you? Say it aint so!!

Anyways, I see it as a very possible scenario - though not on a national scale, as someone already said. Nigeria is too diverse and unwieldy for such an eventuality to come to pass. What we might see are local Killangos; after the splintering of the current geographical space, various warlords will become Killangos operating within a limited sphere of influence.

Kind of like what is happening in the DRC and, in China during the years that led up to the rise of the People's Liberation Army.

With that last bit, I leave a clue as to what I believe to be the eventual end point of this type of probable scenario.

Posted by Eja| 22.12.2007 15:07

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EnforcerEnforcer is offline 
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=Shoko Loko Bangoshe;4294974823>Hi Enforcer,

I'm curious. Why do you think that the diverse multi-ethnic nature of Nigeria specifically make this scenario unlikely? After all, General Killango can very easily use this to balkanise people's opposition to him.



Shoko Loko Bangoshe,

Nigeria unity is too fragile for the scenario you have illustrated.

In a diverse multi-ethnic society every move by the government is narrowly interpreted from each ethnic perspective. In order words, there is always mutual suspicion. This explains why successive federal government (including Abacha regime) embraced the concept of “federal character” in appointment and in resource allocation.

Another example was the annulment of June 12 election by Babangida regime. While Babangida saw it as action conducted in the national interest, a significant proportion of Yorubas saw it an attempt to deprive the Yorubas from taking the reign of power in Nigeria. The immediate fall out was that people began to move to their various regions as the case was in 1967 pre-civil war days. It became obvious to Babangida and the military council that the only way to resolve the crisis was for Babangida to step aside. Ernest Shonekan was nominated to take over the reign in order to appease the Yorubas. This was done to restore confidence in the unity of Nigeria.

Today, if the scenario you have painted is about to happen, the immediate consequence will be a bloody overthrow of the military regime within the shortest possible time, if everything else fails. So it is impossible for a situation you have illustrated to happen in Nigeria.

Any attempt to balkanise the various ethnic groups will further provide the required ammunition to enhanced the current mutual suspicion. No government can fight a multiple civil wars in its territory at the same time. You will have that situation in Nigeria in the scenario you have painted.

Posted by Enforcer| 22.12.2007 15:24

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nero africanusnero africanus is offline 
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 # 10

recruit shoko ,

that was brilliant but that was a military dictator , not a benevolent dictator. in any case he is not building a commercial industrial complex to pave way for democracy. so there can never be a democracy

Posted by nero africanus| 22.12.2007 15:33

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