I was in the process of posting a follow-up to my last article, “Will There Ever Be Light?” when what Yar’adua proclaimed, caught my attention. I am not a political scientist or pretend to be one, but what I have been trying to say – I think - is common sense. Political calculations are never exact because of swing votes and the undecided more than most deliver the swing votes. To capture the imagination of the swing voter, you require a fundamental technique. In 1992, Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas , for most part of the campaign, was the third running contender, according to the polls, for the United States ’ presidential race. He was able to capture the imagination of the undecided voters that year and went on to win the presidency to the dismay of the power-that-be in that country.

How did he do it? “Economy is stupid.” He promised to be fair to all. From the time of Ronald Reagan, the American economy had centred on the principle of a “Trickle down Economy.” Put simply, it means the big guys made the money and allowed the wealth, if so willing, to trickle down to the ordinary people. The biblical parallel is the parable of Lazarus sitting on the floor and eating from the crumbs that falls from the master’s table. Clinton promised to invite Lazarus onto the economy dining table and when he won, he delivered on that promise. Clinton , as President, opened up economic opportunities to the downtrodden and allowed them to have credits for the first time. People have always wondered why the powerful in America hated Bill Clinton to the core. You would probable do the same, if somebody came to your domain and facilitated your house-help to sit on the dining table with you.

The swing voter is most likely the fellow that does not get to meet the big man, let alone dine with him. He or she does not carry a party card. What is paramount to him is equal opportunity and a man that he perceives as fair is the one he reasons will give him that opportunity. His calculation is simple. With a fair person in front, he has a better chance to be what he dreams to be. Of all the presidential candidates in the upcoming Nigeria ’s elections, only Yar’adua has proclaimed so far that he “will be fair to all.” As innocuous as it seems to the chances of other contenders, mark my word that could be the swing vote catcher. Unless that claim is punctured very fast, Yar’adua might as well have coasted home to Aso Rock. But, how do you puncture a claim of fairness by a man that is ascetic and altruistic? The oppositions will need strong arguments to puncture such a claim.

A friend said, ‘You can puncture that claim by fear – the fear of his association.’ The PDP is a party that cuts across all corners of the country – the largest party in Africa . However, the party has been hijacked by non altruistic individuals. Unfortunately, it is the party of Yar’adua. For instance, Obasanjo has a tag of unfairness around his neck but has manoeuvred himself to the position of life presidency of the party of Yar’adua. What degree of influence will Obasanjo have in the government of Yar’adua as the chairman of PDP? Will he allow Yar’adua to be seen as a fair person without the stains of unfairness that surround Yar’adua by association? Unless Yar’adua is able to dissociate himself from Obasanjo and his like; his claim of being fair to all may appear suspect. These are weapons the opposition can capitalise on.

About the life presidency of the party, a friend said it is a mirage. If Obansanjo, who successfully removed four chairmen of the party, now thinks that he would not be removed by the next President if PDP wins, then he is living in a fool’s paradise. ‘Obasanjo is a liability to any party and not an asset,’ the guy continued, ‘when the time comes, they will let him sit in one room and in the next room they will amend the constitution of the party.’ The political campaigns, however, continue. The eventual winner, I think, will be the one that people perceive as the fairest of all. That will be the deciding factor and unless the other contenders anchor their promises in that fashion there would be huge upsets. This is not prophecy; it is the way the world works.

Samuel Akinyele Caulcrick is the author of the book, The Devil Must Be Laughing.

Robot  # 1 | 10.04.2007 07:56

...Read the full article.

denker  # 2 | 10.04.2007 09:18

....chineke, god, mercy my poor self...me i no understand this article..can a very learned village help translate this writeup in awusa, yoruba or igbo...me think say today my english comprehension don leave me...i dey beg oooo......:confused1 :confused1 :confused1