At a recently concluded socio-cultural event in Odi, Bayelsa State, Dr. Timiebi Koripamo-Agary, who is one of the most trusted, most seasoned and most professional federal civil servant, and who is also a member of the Federal Government Committee on Amnesty and Rehabilitation, was quoted as saying “it is time now for those who have carried arms for whatever reason to drop them and embrace peace, so that real peace and development can come in for our people. We have had enough of violence. This is the time for peace,” emphasizing that the government is sincere with the general pardon being floated by President Yar’Adua.

Well said, but what’s next after the amnesty? Really, what’s next after the amnesty gala? Where do we go from there? What concession is the Nigerian government willing to make? How is this administration different from previous regimes that have been, in so many ways, duplicitous and indifferent to the plight and anguish of the Ijaw and other oil-producing communities? In any case, what does the government mean by peace; and also, what does the administration mean when it speaks of development? We need to know: we need to know what the government is talking about; we also need to know its aims and intentions vis-à-vis the Niger Delta imbroglio.

And so, we ask: what manner of peace is Dr. Koripamo-Agary talking about? What is peace and at what price is the Yar’Adua government seeking it? Second, is the government ready to be sincere and upfront in her dealings with the Ijaw and other oil-producing communities? Third, why is the government so bent on the amnesty deal now? Why the haste? Why hurry a process no one is really sure about? And finally, why is the government so determined to shove the amnesty down everyone’s throat? If not properly done, and if there are whiffs of ulterior motives, what the government may get, in the end, will be a bad and useless peace. If Abuja wants to know what a bad and useless peace is, they should ask Tel Aviv.

As one-sided and as unpalatable as the proposed amnesty deal is, we see that the Yar’Adua government is (a) playing one Niger Delta governor against another; (b) pitting one militant leader against another; (c) using one justice-seeking group against another; (d) encouraging politicians to engage in private and public spats; (f) throwing millions of dollars on the table, knowing full well that political prostitutes will sell their birth rights for dollars and cents; and (g) threatening those who refuse to obey or collaborate with the government with awe-inspiring threats. All these in the name of peace?

Peace cannot be dictated, it has to be a natural born child of a just and humane environment. In this case, there can be no peace and security when people feel cheated, used and abused. Military might or not, international condemnation or not, there will be no durable peace if there is no political and economic righteousness in our country. What is fair is fair and fairness is what the Ijaw and the oil-producing communities have been asking for. It is all they ever wanted.

“What’s next” is the question virtually everyone concerned with the Niger Delta crisis and the hyped amnesty seems not to know or understand. To my knowledge at least, no one has publicly articulated the concerns, questions and challenges that are likely to trail the amnesty deal. And in fact, none of the major participants of the complex and seemingly complicated entanglement -- militants, politicians, profiteers, and double-dealing sycophants -- has cleverly communicated the how and what should be done for the Ijaw and the region a day before and a day after the fanfare.

For now, however, President Yar’Adua and his underlings simply wants the low intensity conflict to stop; and also, for the various justice-seeking assemblage to stop harassing the oil companies and the multitude of domestic and international oil bunkerers that have seen their operations take a hit. Other than the monetary cost to the Nigerian government and the oil companies, the Nigerian military an intelligence services are also feeling the pain. They are bleeding.

In my estimation, the proposed amnesty is a stop-gap measure, a band aid on a festering wound close to the heart of a sluggish, wounded, and sleepy elephant. For several years, the government has simply talked its way out of problems, or, in most cases, allowed very simple problems to assume dangerous dimensions. When not being lackadaisical or allowing the ballooning of problems, she has, in some cases, simply used hammers on those she consider houseflies. But this crisis is unlike any this or any other government has ever faced. This has the potential to undo Nigeria: solve it or dissolve.

The history of this crisis can be traced to (a) how the country was put together; (b) the unequal relationship between the 355 or so ethnic groups; (c) how political power and resources are being shared; and (d) the pervasive believe that the Hausa/Fulani hegemony controls and runs Nigeria. These are the kinds of questions the proposed National Sovereign Conference would have addressed. But it was not to be. For now, however, what the Ijaw ethnic nationality is asking for is simple, and is in concurrence with the demands of the larger Niger Delta community:

1) creation of more stand alone Ijaw states;

2) provision of federal infrastructures and institutions;

3) the availability of basic needs;

4) to freely elect their political leaders as opposed to being forced on them by Abuja;

5) fair distribution of revenues and an eventual control of their resources;

6) the economic ownership of oil wells;

7) socially responsible behavior by the oil companies;

8) respect for their ecology;

9) the restructuring of the federal system of government; and

10) the need to convene a Sovereign National Conference to address age-old questions

As to what comes next after the much hyped amnesty, well, one do not need the services of an oracle to know. I alluded to it earlier: there will be a bad and useless peace a day after the amnesty is concluded. Essentially, there will be no lasting peace, no authentic security, and there certainly will be no sense of freedom and satisfaction. None. Nothing. None and nothing because of the way the State is structured, and because of the manner in which several groups within the federation has been conducting political and economic business. Under the current arrangement, the Ijaw for instance, will never be fairly treated. Never. And they know it.

As to the fundamental question of “What’s Next After The Amnesty,” in the short run, I foresee a setting in which (a) a more determined and more lethal MEND materializes; (b) the emergence of a splintered MEND that gives birth to octopuses, spiders and mambas; or (c) a weakened MEND that hobbles into the sunset. From all indications, however, the first and second scenarios are more likely. Their target will remain the federal government and the multinational oil companies. But beyond that, we are likely to see the formation and rise of other groups.

Also, there is a great likelihood that a Palestine-type situation will emerge: a situation whereby the dominant figures in the militant groups betray one another, and/or assassinations becoming pervasive. Furthermore, when private individuals are bold and strong enough to challenge the authority of the state, then such individuals may not think twice before challenging the power and legitimacy of other institutions within the state. Such individuals may become monsters and beyond the dictates of commonsense, decency and the rule of law. They may even go on to raise private armies and engage in extralegalities.

Under such conditions, people may act on primordial suspicions and sentiments; anarchy becomes the common currency; and before you know it, calamity spreads to other parts of the country. The aforesaid is the second half of the likely scenario. There are five other likely scenarios, but for now, the aforediscussed will do.

In the period leading to, and after the amnesty, the goal of the federal government and those with vested interest in the country should be durable peace: efforts and genuine commitments that are geared toward justice and fairness and which prevents or dissuade the reoccurrence of hostility and low intensity conflict. The root cause of the conflict has to be genuinely addressed through institution rebuilding as well as through economic rearrangement and political transformation of the political space and landscape. Unfortunately, this has not been done; and is not likely to be done anytime soon because the various powerhouses in the country prefer the status quo: feeding off revenue from oil; maintaining a strangle hold on power; feeding off of myriad crises; and feeding off of the peoples’ suffering and misfortune. When is this gluttony and inanity going to stop?

Sabidde@yahoo.com

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Robot  # 1 | 07.09.2009 12:05

...Read the full article.

iamgod  # 2 | 07.09.2009 14:01

There cannot be peace until the core agitations which the author has listed above are met There can only be temporary reprieve. Best case secenario for the FG is to continue paying millions of dollars to new and recycled militants year after year, tenure after tenure while the boys in the creeks get greedier, bolder, more organised, and an increasing number of militants, as youths will have found out this is another quick way to 'hammer'

Bode Eluyera  # 3 | 08.09.2009 00:00

The most serious mistake the militants/freedom fighters could ever make is to accept Yaradua's ill-conceived amnesty. Accepting any form of amnesty will not only automatically translate into suicide - in all sense of the word - for the militants, but will also mean that the end of the struggle without achieving its main objective. Thus, by accepting an amnesty, all the human sacrifice, endurance, suffering, e.t.c. of the militants and the indigenes will be in vain. THE AMNESTY IS NOTHING BUT ANOTHER TRAP AND MANIPULATION!!! Most importantly, the Niger Delta crises is not about granting amnesty. It is about correcting economic, political and social injustise that the people have been subjected to by the military and the north. It's about demolishing the system, 419 constitution and structure that deprives bonafide owners the right to the use of their land, mineral and human resources first and foremost for their own development in the name of building a fake ONE NIGERIA that has NEVER existed fo the past 50 years (after independence in 1960) and/or for almost 100 yeras (after amalgamation in 1914), does not exist now and will never exist. The militants must not allow Yaradua to play 419 on them. Detailed analysis of the amnesty and its consequence for the militants - if they accept it - and the struggle will be made in coming parts of this series. STAY TUNED! Meanwhile, before the period for the fake amnesty runs out, my advise for MEND now is to call a press conference together with Afenifere - the Yoruba social group and Uhaneizze and demand for the following: 1) Complete and unconditional withdraw of Joint Task Force from the Niger Delta with immediate effect - before October 4, 2009; 2) Yaradua should publicly tender an apology on behalf of the north and the military for all the inhuman crimes committed aginst innocent Nigerians and Nigeria - including murders, embezzlement, deliberately conniving with foreigners to rob Nigeria of hundreds of billions of dollars and weaken her - and for making Nigeria a failed state despite the enourmous amount of human and mineral resources the country is bestowed; 3)Yaradua should publicly tender an apology on behalf of the north and the military for all the attrocities commited in the Niger Delta by them (the north and the military) against the indigenes - including failure to punish severely multinational oil companies for the mass pollution of their lands and the unprecedented level of poverty in the region despite the fact that Nigeria earns more than 80% of its foreign revenues from this region. And for the hypocrisy of the north who squandered billions of dollars of the region's resources in building a new capital, Abuja, an elephant project, from scaratch, for themselves while the bonafide owners of the resources wallow in abject poverty. 4) Yaradua must agree to stand trial after the completion of his term for ordering his mad soldiers to massacre innocent and harmless Niger Deltans whose only crime was their audacity to demand for justice. 5) Convoke a National Sovereign Conference (SNC) where all political, economic, cultural and social issues - including the willingness of various ethnic groups to remain in the same country with the north. This is the LITMUS TEST for Yaradua and the north, and their sincerity about amnesty, the Niger Delta and Nigeria as a whole. Details will follow later. ACT NOW! You can make a BIG DIFFERENCE. All you need is to act RIGHT NOW! Don't limit your participation to reading my article(s) Send it/them to as many people as possible most especially the Indigenes of the Niger Delta: leaders of militant groups(Asari Dokubo, Gbomo Jomo, Henry Okah, Tompolo, e.t.c.) politicians, spokes men (Cynthia White and others), lawyers, e.t.c. Tell them also about this site. PASS ON THE INFORMATION. IT COSTS YOU NOTHING, BUT THE IMPACT IS IMMEASURABLE.GO AHEAD NOW! THANK YOU. Bode Eluyera

Bode Eluyera  # 4 | 08.09.2009 02:21

6) Conduct a COMPREHENSIVE audit of the oil and gas in the Niger Delta (guidelines are provided in part 8 of my series "How the Niger Deltans can get their freedom the action plan!" The Niger Deltans must not allow themselves to be intimidated by Yaradua. All they need to do now is to be calm and not panic. The crises in the N.D. is not about amnesty but about injustice and a system that robs Peter to pay Paul in the name of building a fake non-existing One Nigeria. Yaradua does not need to promise the indigenes to develop their region, all he needs to do, if he is really sincere, is to let the people retain the money/revenues from their mineral resources to develop the region by themselves. As I have earlier written in my articles, the north is very vulnerable. And if they start any war in that region they are going to loose most. This is not !967 but 2009. All the indigenes need now is perseverance and hold on to their position. Believe me, victory ios at hand. The pressure is mainly on the federal republic of northern Nigeria, the multinational oil companies, retired - but not tired, redundant, northern criminal officers with oil blocks and the westerrn countries, especially the United States, that buy oil from Nigeria. The position of the federal govt., in actual fact, is very weak. Any agreement that you need military force to compell the other side to carry out is no agreement but cohesion - and it won't work. They should not be afraid that Yaradua and the north will start a war campaign after october 4. One thing is raiding or even capturing/conquering a land, but controlling it is a totally different thing. All the militants/freedom fighters need to tell Yaradua and his 'behind the curtains' American and British consultants is that they have nothing to loose and that the struggle is not about amnesty, therefore, Yaradua should go to hell with his amnesty. With the announcement of amnesty, the N.D. crises/struggle has entered another phase. But, believe me, not the last phase. This is just the beginning of the beginning. They can't carry the oil to the north - unfortunately. WHAT A PITY!!! In the coming parts of my series - ,ost likely, in part 10, I am going to prove with concrete facts that neither Yaradua nor the north can develop the N.D. The amnesty is meant to buy time and give them the opportunity to work out another strategy to continue exploting these people. The so called ministry N.D. can not develop the region. It is just another opportunity for the PDP and others lawyer to Yaradua to embezzle more money. The N.D. is a blessing in disguise to get rid of these PARASITES for good!!! Our children and generations to come will never forgive us if we blow it up. And there won't be another opportunity in the nearest future.

denker  # 5 | 08.09.2009 05:22

Bode Eluyera, my old good friend,:p stop disturbing your small brain:D about us; we're on top of the situation...merci!

vincent10  # 6 | 13.10.2009 09:50

The Post Amnesty Program can not be completed without empowering the Niger-Delta youth economically. This can be achieved by the creation of mass employment in the area. People like Dangote can help out by investing massively in the region. If 80 percent of the militants have a livelihood, they will not think of carrying guns.