Finally, Obama has won a debate squarely. Even his most vicious opponents concur. John McCain said so by getting the hell out of there as soon as the handshake was done with.

Barack Obama has finally established that he is qualified to be the President of the United States. That means the first hurdle for Obama has been scaled, beyond any reasonable doubt.

There are still three hurdles remaining.

But for last night, “that one” won.

Now the Obama campaign will have to move on to other hurdles. The first one is being ready to deal with the October surprise. It is coming. It will come when there will not be enough time to react. Anticipating that and being ready to respond would be key. It helps that Obama’s campaign has the money to fight back.

The second hurdle is anticipating external influence that might change the dynamics of the election. The arrest or killing of Osama bin Laden could occur within the next four weeks. The bombing of America or an American interest abroad could happen. And of course, a country could decide to influence the election by taking an aggressive action against an American interest.

An attack on America or an American interest abroad will drive voters back to John McCain. It will bring up national security on top of voters’ concerns and Republicans have consistently been regarded as better managers of the national security interest of America. And such an attack is not far fetched because groups like Al Qaeda, who are pursuing the policy of bankrupting America by keeping it perpetually at war, know that their best chance of getting the 100-year war is by helping to elect John McCain president.

The third and final hurdle, the one that Obama’s campaign cannot really control is what has been called the Tom Bradley effect. It was coined when in 1982 a black candidate for the governor of California, Tom Bradley, was leading in the polls only to be defeated on the Election Day by a wide margin because people got into the voting booth and voted in a manner different from what they were telling the polls.

A new study by the Stanford University on race and elections stated that Obama’s poll numbers would have been 6% higher had he been a white man.

While I do not know what could be done about that, it is important to factor that in the calculations. 

 Moving forward, I think that this election is Obamas to lose.

Win or lose, last night finally erased all doubts as to whether “that one” has all it takes to be president. Even McCain said it. “We need a cool hand on the tiller.”

And on that I say I agree with McCain.

I only hope someone out there will summon the courage to walk up to him and tell him he has not got a cool hand. His hands are erratic.

Robot  Villager

# 1 Win or lose, last night finally erased all doubts as to whether “that one” has all it takes to be president. Even McCain said it. “We need a cool hand on the tiller.&#...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 08.10.2008 17:48

Gbolly  Villager

# 2 The presidential election, in my opinion, is going to be a litmus-test on racisim for the Americans. After yesterday's presidential debate anybody with common sense knows that Obama is ready to lead USA. The question is are the Americans ready to select an African-American as the president??? We have less than 30 days to find out. Posted by Gbolly| 08.10.2008 23:05