21 Aug 2005 |
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| By Reuben Abati "...take a census of the whole Israelites community by their class and their families everyone by name..." (Numbers 1: 1-4) The proposed Population Census 2005 scheduled to take place in November was one of the issues that engaged our attention, recently on Patito's Gang, the television programme in which I am one of the regular faces. It turned out to be a particularly controversial edition, with the participants almost engaging blows on and off camera. M. M. Ibrahim had chosen to defend the government's decision to leave out ethnicity and religion in the census questionnaire, describing it as a progressive move, and religion and ethnicity as dispensable indicators in a head-count - particularly in a divisive nation such as Nigeria. Other panelists held a different opinion. We argued that a census exercise is not just a bland statistical exercise, but a fact-finding process through which a country can determine its own identity for purposes of development planning and to the extent that religion and ethnicity define the individual, it would amount to self-deception to leave out these two critical factors. M.M dismissed this as primitive. To which Pini Jason almost jumping out of his seat screamed: "there is nothing primitive about my being an Igbo. You can't say that because I am Igbo, I am primitive!" A shouting match followed. This was supposed to be a discussion among friends but that episode and its sequel helped to demonstrate the serious divisions among Nigerians on the question of not just population indicators but the idea of census itself. The passion and anxiety that dominated that recording reflect the phenomenon of census rivalry in Nigeria. It is the truth for example that the present Census exercise as proposed has caused much division among Nigerians even before taking place. The argument over the content of the Census questionnaire has been particularly strident, but it is worth noting that in the last census exercise in 1991, ethnicity and religion were also excluded from the questionnaire, and the excuse offered by the National Population Commission, was that ethnicity and religion led to the widespread rejection of the 1973 Census. The first census was held in this country in 1866. The colonial authorities conducted other census exercises in 1871, 1901, and 1911, and whereas all these covered only the Lagos Colony and in 1911, the Southern Protectorate, the first nationwide census involving the North and the South was organised in 1921. There was also the 1931 census and the three-year 1951 -53 Census. Although the census exercises during the colonial period were limited, and Nigerians thought they were meant to be instruments for taxation, one clear difference between them and the ones conducted in post-colonial Nigeria is the politicisation since 1962 of the Nigerian census. No colonial census was cancelled, but in post-colonial Nigeria, the cancellation of census results or the distrust of its outcomes has been the norm thus creating the impression that Nigerians cannot count themselves properly. The 1962 Census had to be cancelled because it suddenly began to threaten the survival of the newly independent nation. The 1963 Census was upheld but only because the Supreme Court ruled against the Eastern Nigerian government which had gone to court to challenge the results. The 1973 Census caused widespread acrimony; the census officials openly disagreed with each other; there was tension in every state of the federation; so much that the Gowon government could not even summon the courage to release the results. When General Murtala Muhammed took over power, one of the first things he did was to cancel the 1973 Census. The organisers of the 1991 Census, which came much later, have been promoting it as a success, perhaps because it was not cancelled, but indeed, the 1991 census was grossly flawed, as it gave the impression that there was no growth in certain parts of the country whereas other parts of the country grew in numbers. It also reinforced the old myth that there are more persons in the desert and the savannah than in the Southern rain forest, using the specious instrument of land mass as opposed to population density. The result is that up till this moment, Nigerians do not know their exact number; every population exercise has been at best a guessing game, made worse by the politics of it all. The political root of the Nigerian Census is to be traced to the 1951-53 exercise which the colonial authorities used as the basis for the allocation of seats in the federal parliamentary elections of 1954 and the general elections of 1959. Interestingly, TELL magazine did a two-part story recently in its February 21 and March 7 editions in which Harold Smith, a former British colonial officer confessed in a newly published autobiography, that the British deliberately used the census exercise to sow the seeds of disunity in Nigeria by manipulating statistics and circumstances in favour of the North. Since then, the North has rested its power and privileges on the myth of numerical superiority. Most conveniently, and with power in the hands of the North through the military, successive Nigerian constitutions have used the politics of number to determine resource allocation and states/local councils creation, and thus, the North has been enjoying an advantage which other parts of the country continue to contest. The politics of numbers is therefore central to the politics of power in Nigeria. To worsen the situation, every census exercise since independence has been conducted close to elections. The 1962/63 census exercise came before the 1964 elections. The 1973 census was part of the Gowon administration's transition package. The 1991 census by the Babangida administration was designed as a component of the political transition programme. With every census prefacing an election, every political group then takes a more than ordinary interest in it, with a determination to manipulate it, in order to supply enough figures for the electoral register which would place their own region or state at an advantage. Every census exercise is in that sense, a form of election, and like every Nigerian election, it is open to fraud and manipulation. Given this background, it is proper to assume that the task of any serious government seeking to organise a Nigerian Census, after 1991, should be a transparent process which can inspire confidence and settle the long-standing paradox about the inability of Nigerians to count themselves. Unfortunately, this is not the case. The Obasanjo government has lost the opportunity to organise a proper census. What is being proposed as Census 2005 will end up as a waste of money and time and a further deepening of the fault lines in the Nigerian project. This is why I think that the proposed Census should be cancelled. There has been no demonstration of a capacity to learn from history, and no creativity in the packaging of Census 2005. The Census is scheduled for November. Why November? Why did the Census not take place earlier? The 1991 Census was held in the month of November as well. Is there any special reason that is not being disclosed?. I have made the point that previous Census exercises were tied to future elections, and this caused problems. It can be seen that Census 2005 is being organised ahead of the 2007 elections; even if the government does not admit a connection, the professional political class is bound to take the Census exercise as a pre-election trial. If present events provide enough intimations about the future, then we can safely conclude that the 2007 elections will be violent and so bloody with so much activity in the graveyards. Already, the killings have started in the ruling Peoples Democratic Party where a nest of killers appears to be having a field-day. A credible census cannot be organised without a broad-based consensus about its viability and prospects. Less than three months to Census 2005, the country is divided over it. A census trial is going on, demarcation of enumeration areas has been conducted but there is no public information about the activities and plans of the Population Commission. In 1991, there was massive public enlightenment; the entire country including the private sector participated in the exercise; today, the census is being organised as a secret activity. In fact, in the week that has just ended, the Population Commission gathered its state commissioners and got them to swear to an oath of secrecy. They are not supposed to tell anybody anything concerning the Census! Perhaps, this is why everything concerning the Census has been done in secrecy so far. But is this supposed to be a Census for Nigerians? The idea of a secret census is in itself destabilising. There is detailed information about census activities in India, Britain, Canada and the United States on the internet. You are even encouraged to ask questions. Talking about an oath of secrecy in connection with a Census gives the impression that the government has "a hidden agenda." And what can that hidden agenda be other than the perpetuation of old patterns? Senator Abraham Adesanya, leader of the Afenifere once complained about the tendency to inflate the numbers of the North by counting goats and chickens as human beings. Faced with talks about secrecy, he and others who nurse such suspicions, and they are in the majority, are not likely to change their minds nor would they accept whatever comes out of Census 2005. An oath of secrecy under a government that talks about transparency and accountability is inappropriate. There is no doubt that the Population Commission is also unprepared. During the demarcation of enumeration areas exercise, most of the officials that were engaged were not paid their allowances and entitlements. There were reports of cronyism and favouritism with only the persons who were willing to do the bidding of the zonal directors being favoured. There is a Chairman of the Population Commission, Malam Samaila Danko Makama but he is a great unknown. More than half of the media stories on the Census exercise are negative. Does the Population Commission have a Public Affairs Department? If it does, then what are the carpenters in that office still doing there? The ineptitude of Census officials was once such a big source of concern that a Mr J. Warren, from Europe had to be recruited to run the 1962 Census! Vehicles, other materials and funds would be required in any census, it is clear that Census 2005 is bound to run into problems of logistics. The international standard is that it takes 36 months to prepare for a Census. Nigeria is putting its own together in a hurry. President Obasanjo should take honest advice, and cancel the proposed Census 2005 exercise. Previous governments that went into it without the will to do that which is right, ended up regretting their folly. The Tafawa Balewa government paid a price for the 1963 Census, it was one of the problems that sowed the seeds of the civil war. The Gowon administration was still battling with the controversies arising from the 1973 Census when it was kicked out. The Shagari government wanted to do a census along the lines of its well-known profligacy, but it never got the chance to do so when the military struck in December 1983. The Babangida government organised a Census in 1991 but no one refers to it as an achievement. To go ahead with Census 2005 may amount to walking into a trap but it is a damage that would be perfectly self-inflicted. What Nigerians want is a census that is based on truth, a census that will end the Nigerian lie, not a census that will be conducted by persons who will be willing to manipulate the figures and do as they wish because they have sworn to an oath of secrecy. In the long run, those parts of the Constitution which make population figures a basis for resource allocation, and grant enormous powers to the President in census matters must be reviewed and amended. Ours must become a country where what matters is the humanity and identity of every member, and the character of our communities, not the selfish ambitions of politicians who are ever-ready to play games with the life and future of the nation.
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