Where is Obasanjo's exit strategy?
By Reuben Abati

ON March 6, 2007, President Olusegun Obasanjo will be 70 years old: 11 years out of this spent as Nigeria's foremost political leader and more than half of the total spent in various capacities in the public arena. There are Nigerians insisting vociferously that Baba is closer to 80 than 70, to determine Baba's true age, a DNA test may have to be conducted, I hear, but that is not the focus of this piece.

What we know is that shortly after his 70th birthday, he will preside over an important transitional process in Nigerian history (the third of such in his career as leader). Barely a month later, he would be expected to hand over the reins of power at the centre, to a new President, pack his luggage out of Aso Rock and return to the group of ex-Nigerian leaders in retirement. For Obasanjo, such a moment would necessarily be a moment of both farewell and closure. For Nigerians, a new beginning, and time and opportunity to take stock and conduct a proper audit of the Obasanjo era, his legacy, complete with warts and all. For many on all sides, this will be a moment of truth.

In other societies, when a leader gets close to the kind of crossroads that awaits President Obasanjo, he embarks on the necessary task of putting a fence around his own legacy and era. This is a leadership function, for it also entails the preparation of the people for a new beginning, it defines for the in-coming era, a number of national priorities, if there is any grand vision, it is restated for emphasis. The self-serving part is the individuation of some of the highlights, the location of the existing leader in the context of national history and the existing development framework. It is a useful process of remembering and thinking; planning and creativity.

The bad news is that President Obasanjo is rushing to the end of his tenure like a train that has missed the tracks and is yet dangerously on high speed. Both his own interest and the nation's are endangered. Two simple-minded, equally confounding explanations, but clearly de-constructible have been offered for this inability to pause and close shop. The first is that President Obasanjo does not want to be a lame duck President. This has been operationalised in form of continual motion for its sake.

About a year to the end of this second term, the Obasanjo government suddenly became hyper-active, embarking on new projects, some ad-hoc, most of them, long-term running into the future and yet, these are projects and ideas which stand the risk of reversal by a succeeding government which may see no reason for being loyal to the past.

Being lame duck is not a function of motion, but of the given effluxion of time. A government that is on its way out at the end of its tenure is simply on its way out. Where such a government starts behaving like it is about to renew itself at midnight, it lays itself open to suspicion that it has a hidden agenda. This is the fate that the Obasanjo government has suffered. Its programme for the April elections faces a crisis of credibility; the outcome may face a bigger test of legitimacy. Too many Nigerians suspect that the President does not want to leave. And if he eventually does, others will take the credit for his exit. Besides, the Obasanjo government shot itself in the foot the moment the President turned the dispute with Vice President Atiku into the primary business of the Federal Government. The government became truly lame duck since then; it became dependent on politics.

The President devotes his time, energy and state resources to the anti-Atiku campaign. By refusing to focus on his own legacy, he has helped to create a strong platform for Atiku as a politician. The President has been running Atiku's campaign for him. The man gets free advertisement, prime time coverage in the media; his messages get heard because the Presidency has become "a stop Atiku by all means affair." This distraction will hurt the President's legacy ultimately. He may be remembered more for his last gestures than the processes of the past eight years.

The second excuse that is given for the government's present-mindedness is that government business is continuous. But how continuous is government business in the present environment? The idea of continuity is in the form of the Obasanjo government trying to rob a future Federal Government of its own initiative. Their idea of continuity is in form of the destruction of the opposition and the possibility of change. On many occasions, President Obasanjo has announced that he, alone, will determine his own successor. He knows those who will not succeed him. Now, he knows those who will succeed him.

And since the emergence of Yar'Adua/Jonathan Goodluck as flagbearers of the PDP, indeed as his own choice for the party, the President has spent his time campagning for the Yar'Adua/Jonathan ticket. The PDP Presidential candidate has even been allowed to use the President's official jet. The voters don't know Yar'Adua, they don't know what he stands for, but they know that he has been anointed by Obasanjo.

The President has also taken the additional step of insisting that his successor must continue with his government's reform agenda. And to ensure continuity, PDP candidates have been made to sign "a bond of allegiance to the party." The President has also ensured that he will remain a leader of the PDP for life. But it is clear to those who can see that what the President seeks is the continuity of his influence. He is insisting that "it is only his way for Nigeria, or no other way at all". He has even declared that the April election is "a do-or-die affair", a statement that is totally devoid of statesmanship.

But the President's definition of continuity is flawed. It is predicated on a poorly constructed notion of allegiance. But is there any guarantee that his anointed candidates if they come to power will remain loyal to him? The President has obviously not learnt any lessons from his Atiku experience. Atiku was his "boy" whom he trusted. And he made him Vice President in 1999. But Atiku soon turned out to be nobody's "boy". He insisted on being his own man. It was at this point that he was accused of disloyalty. Would Yar'Adua if he becomes President lick Baba's feet, and defer to him continuously? Would he remain faithful to the bond of allegiance to the PDP which he has signed?

President Obasanjo should know the exact answers to these posers. When the Court of Appeal ruled on Tuesday, this week, that Vice President Atiku ceased to be a puppet of the PDP the moment he was sworn in as Vice President, with the additional retort that the PDP is unknown to the Constitution, their Lordships spoke not just for Atiku but all men who in the future may be accused of treachery simply because they choose to assert themselves. The Court of Appeal has offered a dignified interpretation of the word loyalty in public office - loyalty to the state, as opposed to loyalty to an individual. President Obasanjo's definition of continuity can only end in disappointment.

Umar Yar'Adua as President could if he so wishes change the Constitution of the PDP and remove Obasanjo as leader for life. And if someone else, not Yar'Adua becomes President, Baba should know that he may need to re-negotiate his own relevance in the scheme of things. The President may also be under the illusion that he has been able to create a community of disciples in the corridors of power, who will be inherited if he is able to hand over to Yar'Adua and who will then stay on to protect his economic reform programme. He'd be surprised. Those who surround him today, professing so much loyalty would soon find new masters, join the new train and dance to new tunes. It is strange that President Obasanjo who has had so much experience in power still behaves as if he does not know this.

The foregoing review is necessary to show that if the President argues or anyone does so on his behalf that he indeed has a good exit strategy, or that his legacy is in no danger that would be an exercise in casuistry. About 51 days to the beginning of the end of the Obasanjo tenure, what the average Nigerian remembers after eight years, is the fact that the roads are still bad, there is no water supply, the nation is in darkness, its youths are unemployed; factories are closing down, there is no prosperity here, only despair, and the politicians have not changed their ways. But there is a paradox. When you listen to some of the people working for the Obasanjo government in various departments, they have good stories to tell, not about the soft issues of social infrastructure, but deeper macro-economic reforms through which in the last eight years, the country's foundations have been strengthened; and the grounds have been prepared for a future harvest. The Obasanjo government has also shown us both the beauty and the ugliness of democracy; it has exposed our strengths and limitations in every sphere of our lives.

The biggest arena of failure for President Obasanjo is the inability to communicate these achievements, which in truth represent his legacy and the root of the continuity that he seeks. Power and politics depend on the force and clarity of communication. By communicating its own vision and direction clearly and consistently, a responsible government creates among the populace a sense of collective ownership and belief. What the Obasanjo government needed at the centre was to ensure this buy-in by the people, sell the new brand that it has created. In eight years, President Obasanjo has been counting on the assumption that when the fruits of his reform agenda begin to ripen, the people will discover the truth. This is not likely to happen.

What may happen is that if and when a fructification occurs, a future government will claim the credit. And there will be no one to tell Obasanjo's story as it should be told, because for eight years what the critical majority has heard from the centre are tales of quarrels, and abuse, corruption and discord within the family; alienation and despair in the land. .

And so I ask: what is Obasanjo's exit strategy?

Robot  # 1 | 23.02.2007 07:09

In eight years, President Obasanjo has been counting on the assumption that when the fruits of his r...Read the full article.

MrOneNaija  # 2 | 23.02.2007 08:47

A DISASTROUS FIN DE RÈGNE Nice piece by Reuben Abati ! The point should also be made that beyond the unbridled desire for political self-perpetuation, the desperation of the Aso Rock despot is informed by the determination to cover his sordid track record in the past seven years and nine months. The unmitigated failure called Obasanjo and his nightmarish tyranny have been a source of untold suffering for the average Nigerian. In the bid to cover his crooked back and prevent Nemesis from catching up with him, the sinister tin god is resorting to one illegality after the other. This is futile. There will be ho hiding place for Nigeria's Caligula. He and his goons in the likes of Nuhu Ribadu, Bode george, Ahmadu Ail, Maurice Iwu, and el-Rufai must be called upon to render accounts to the Nigerian people. But what Nigerians should be concerned with mostly today as we contemplate the 2007 elections is trying to stop the devious and clearly unpatriotic Obasanjo and his mafia from prolonging their stranglehold on the Nigerian polity. Here is a commentary on the disastrous "fin-de-règne" of one of Africa's most unduring political disasters. It was written slightly over a year ago but also bears acute relevance now. The Sad And Pathetic End Of Obasanjo Monday, 02 January 2006 Today, only the most cynical or brazenly sycophantic in our society will deny the fact that Nigeria is witnessing a nadir in the welfare of its people. The gloom that one sees everywhere is to a large extent directly attributable to the criminal conduct of perhaps the most callous despot in the history of our nation. It is worth reiterating that Obasanjo's corrupt and dangerous ways have brought the country to the brink. There is death and destruction everywhere. The catalogue of the Obasanjo regime's atrocities just keeps expanding : Odi, Zaki-Biam, the 2003 electoral heist, Anambra, Bayelsa, etc. Other assaults on Nigeria and its putative democracy as illustrated by the dictator's illegal take-over of the structures of the PDP and the imposition of some of the more despicable characters in the Nigerian political firmament as its officers have also immensely contributed toward the sordid legacy of one of Africa's most enduring political disasters in living memory. All this implies a sad and pathetic end for Obasanjo, for history has never been kind to any soi-disant leader who has so ignominously treated his fellow humans the way Obasanjo has trampled on Nigerians in the last six years of a most primitive kleptocracy masquerading as a national government. It is amazing that confronted with his disastrous track record, this punchinello of African statesmanship and his sinister henchmen take refuge in the tired and nauseating argument that the tyrant needs more time in order to "consolidate" his anti-people policies so abusively referred to as reforms. So, even as the average Nigerian sinks deeper in the pit of despair that has been his lot since 1999, the dictator from Otta has refused to change course. As a matter of fact, there has been an escalation of the political rascality Nigerians have come to associate with an individual who seems incapable of self-redemption. As I write, Nigerian democracy is once again being brutally assaulted, this time in Oyo with the despot apparently offering tacit support to the perpetrators of that transgression. The single-minded obsession to illegally hang on to power beyond 2007 would seem to be the only thing that matters to the Nigerian Caligula and the like-minded bunch around him. As I have argued elsewhere, Obasanjo has committed so many atrocities and human rights abuses against Nigerians that he is afraid of the inevitable consequences to him should a truly democratic government emerge after his scandalous imposition. The desperation to sit tight has taken the form of a multi-pronged attack on civil society : the hounding of political enemies, real or imagined, the divide-and-conquer strategy as evidenced by the crude use of region-based outfits, the corrupt use of state resources like the EFCC under the spineless puppet called Nuhu Ribadu. Nuhu Ribadu and his EFCC constitute an eloquent example of all that is wrong with the Obasanjo regime, namely, the corrupt and immoral use of state structures in the promotion of a perverse personal ambition . As a willing tool of the Obasanjo authoritarianism, Ribadu cannot exempt himself from involvement in the regime's excesses. His shameful role in the recent military occupation of Bayelsa state prior to the forceful removal of the governor speaks volumes as to Ribadu's identity as an agent of dictatorship and repression. Ribadu and his EFCC have become an integral part of the despot's reckless, immoral and undemocratic deployment of the nation's resources in the pursuit of a sinister personal agenda with sectarian overtones. In the so-called anti-corruption scheme of the regime, Ribadu has consistently demonstrated his readiness to sumbit to the very forces of evil that continue to trample on Nigerians and their collective aspirations.The people of Nigeria must reject the likes of Ribadu for the latter aid and abet the enemies of the nation in their nefarious activities. In a decent society, a post-Obasanjo period should necessarily see Ribadu and his type answering for their many sins against the nation.The pertinent question Nigerians should be asking themselves at this critical moment is how to robustly and effectively respond to the moral perversions of a despot who has shown that he has no qualms whatsoever resorting to the most shameful of tactics in the pursuit of selfish or unpatriotic aims. History has taught us that there are options available to Nigerians in their desire to rid themselves of profligate, sit-tight tyrants in the mould of Obasanjo. But first, Nigerians should remind themselves that one critical factor of the full-blown dictatorship Nigerians are living under today is the role of the Nigerian media and especially that of the so-called Kabiyesi press in Lagos. As early as 1999 when it was obvious to much of Nigeria that Obasanjo had no interest in seeing genuine democracy take root in our country, not to mention his numerous crimes against fellow Nigerians, prominent actors of the Lagos axis of the national press chose to behave as if they were imbued with a moral duty to defend the regime of Obasanjo against imaginary undemocratic forces. They were joined in this unbecoming role by leaders of so-called pro-democracy outfits like the NLC leader. Nigerians still remember vividly how Oshiomhole of the NLC and several newspaper columnists resorted to intimidation and blackmail tactics in order to silence those calling for public protest against the 2003 electoral brigandage called 419. Prior to 2003, leading voices in the media even went as far as mentioning what a prominent columnist with the Guardian (Lagos) called the " religious rationalization at the heart of the Obasanjo presidency "! By that, it was meant that Christian values formed the basis of Obasanjo's political conduct! Of course, the uncritical, knee-jerk support offered the Obasanjo regime by the media and some sections of the human rights and pro-democracy establishment up to 2003 in particular did contribute in no small measure in providing a dubious legitimacy to a rogue regime that had already shown that it deserved only derision and disdain from citizens. Even nowadays, some media people continue to incredibly talk of giving "the benefit of doubt " to the Abuja dictator as far as his policies and political conduct are concerned. These days, some self-proclaimed pro-democracy cum human rights activists like Beko Kuti would seem to have discarded their duplicitous masks in favour of open support for the dictator as can be attested by Kuti's suspected pro-regime infiltration of PRONACO. So, human rights and pro-democracy activists as well as national media practitioners cannot in good conscience exonerate themselves regarding the current mess in the land. It is simply not enough for our media men and women to express anguish or dismay regarding the apparent emasculation of Nigeria's political class in the face of the danger called Obasanjo. Individually and collectively, the national media and other strategic sections of the Nigerian society should seek to atone for their respective roles in the sustenance of the current murderous dictatorship with pretensions to leadership.What this means is that Nigerians must shed their indecision and clannish mindset in favour of a more robust and concerted approach in dealing with a blood-thirsty despot. They must be prepared to return fire for through the use of democratic and popular means. They should borrow a leaf from the actions of those genuine pro-democracy activists who not long ago, did fight another despot, Abacha, to a standstill. Obasanjo and his horde of hangers-on must be made to understand that they do not own Nigeria and that the choice of the next president, like that of other elected representatives, is for Nigerians to make in a transparent and democratic fashion and as such cannot be the prerogative of a backward cabal represented by Kabiyesi and his predatory gang. Faced with a Bokassa-like tin-god, the nation's democratic forces must discard their penchant for sectarian involvement and suggestion. Obasanjo has sought so far to use ethno-religious differences within the Nigerian society in order to maintain his ghastly grip on the nation. The abiding lesson of history that should guide Nigerians as they come out in a concerted effort to once and for all confront Obasanjo and his backers - alien or local - and take back their country is that ultimately, what matters most is that no dictator be allowed to hold the nation to ransom without a purposeful challenge. Abacha's sad and pathetic end is living proof of that. Aonduna Tondu. New York http://www.nigeriavillagesq...

ocnus  # 3 | 23.02.2007 09:13

The exit strategy is to block the exit and hope for the best. Àròpin ni ti ènìyàn, sise ni ti Olúwa Oba.

olootu  # 4 | 23.02.2007 09:28

We should should wish one whatever he wishes himself. Whatever history says about Obasanjo in the future is his own cup of tea and not ours. Our concerns should be that of ours/our children. What is our future? For Obasanjo: he came, he saw and he LOST!

felix  # 5 | 23.02.2007 10:01

he came,...he saw ,...HE DESTROYED!!!...It cant get worse than this..

Ajanlekoko  # 6 | 23.02.2007 10:16

To have an exit strategy, there must first be plans to have an exit.

NWA-DIKE!  # 7 | 23.02.2007 10:23

Oga Abati Is Begining To Sound More Like Obj And Atiku.........you Must Have Something Else To Tell Us Other Than Worry How Obj Go Escape..........aluta

ELAWALO  # 8 | 23.02.2007 10:30

Reuben Haa aagh Exit Strategy ke !! ??? What are you writing about ? Have you forgotten ? That this man did not have a strategy in place when he assumed office as our President. On entry there was no strategy.. in light of his anticipated exit BaBa OBJ has NO! strategy oohh . Let us not fool ourselves trying to decipher a strategy in this era of "Obasanjus Operandi". Almost all of those who are aiming to succeed OBJ too do not have a strategy in place to tackle our cacophony of multi faceted challenges as a nation. I would like ask fellow villagers, & citizens ... WHAT IS OUR STRATEGY? Our strategy in formulation or in place to counter the total destruction of our country by PDP and thier cronies.. ??/ Reuben you need to direc you question at our collective populace

nelggio  # 9 | 23.02.2007 10:37

...Reuben is one of the finest writers to have come from this part of the world...in the class of Godwin Agbroko of the blessed memory..and Okey Ndibe.. ...the truth is that Obj himself is no longer too sure of any of his plans...and now it appeared its late as he cant afford to turn back his vehicle thats in great motion...its now a free fall...and where the vehicle will land this frustrated man..nobody knows..not even himself... ...Obj has lost so many battles he could've avoided...instead of allowing himself to be disgraced on several occassions...but Okey Ndibe rightly said he has no shame... ...my candid advise for Obj is to make peace with God and man ...to stop all these lawlessness and impunity let loose on the nation...make due process, rule of law and constitutionalism his abiding principle...and starve off the imminent humiliation and demise into abyss that awaits him..

akuluouno  # 10 | 23.02.2007 10:39

Nigerians always want a ready made food without making any effort for it. Was baba not resting in Otta when a delegation led by Evil genius went to wake him up and impose him on the rest of us. Baba is not the messiah but merely John the Baptist if not one of the prophets. Regarding an exit strategy, Abati has also made the same mistake as others who see Nigeria from the eyes of the developed democracies of the west. Exit strategy to where? Umar and Jo have been carefully anointed and sworn to an oath to to carry on the Babacratic legacies. I am not surprised that along the way Baba has cut strategic deals and blackmailed UmarJo to booth if necessary to keep their loyalty aware of the the Mwanawasa syndrome in Zambia. To this end PDP will be made to be stronger than Umar/Jo just as in the time of Shagari in the NPN days when NPN was stronger than the elected officers. This is Baba's exit strategy and unfortunately, there is no room for lame duckedness in it. :lol: :biggrin: :biggrin:

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