Under General Abacha, the situation was very much the same as this. Abacha intimidated everyone away from politics and the Presidency. But one man at the time stood up against him. His name is M. D. Yusuf. When all the parties and politicians started singing Abacha-forever, M. D. Yusuf placed adverts in the papers and presented himself as an alternative. We need such men of courage at this time" />
26 Feb 2006 |
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One of the remarkable highlights of the democratic process as at 1999 was the number of persons who wanted to be President of Nigeria: there were at least 30 of them, including those who had no business eyeing such an important position but whose declaration of interest helped to give the impression of openness apart from strengthening the right of every citizen to aspire to the highest levels possible in society. President Obasanjo was the winner in that election. Again in 2003, there was still some motion in political circles about the prospects of an alternative to President Obasanjo. Shortly after the 2003 elections, the jostling for the 2007 elections began almost immediately, with debates and arguments about who should be President after Obasanjo, and the rights of certain ethnic groups to also occupy the position. This was the season of that familiar debate about Igbo Presidency, about power shift, and names were mentioned, and the personalities behind those names behaved as if they too were prepared to run for Presidency in 2006/7. Today, less than 18 months to the transition moment in 2007, it is as if there are no Presidential aspirants anymore. With each passing day, the political space gets more constricted, and persons who had earlier set up machineries for Presidential campaigns are engaged in a strange business of "watching the transition". Even in the states, prospective gubernatorial candidates are playing safe. This is so because the professional political class is no longer sure of the future of the transition process. The apathy that has suddenly descended on the political scene in terms of interest in electoral offices and processes ought to be investigated a bit more closely. It is a comment on the internal workings of Nigerian democracy and its eventual prospects. One of the early candidates is the Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. By February 2004, the Atiku Abubakar campaign machinery was already at work as suggestive adverts were placed in the media to prepare the mind of the public for his candidature. Atiku's strongest point was the influence he had acquired as Obasanjo's No. 2 man, and his media packaging as a generous, listening fellow, the antithesis of his boss. The campaign managers did a good job of selling Atiku to the public, but they didn't reckon with the feelings and preferences of their client's boss. The relationship between him and President Obasanjo had collapsed, in retrospect irredeemably in 2003, just before the elections. With Atiku's campaign gathering heat, the President came out with the directive that his administration would rather concentrate on serving the people; hence, nobody in his government should talk about 2007 as this is distracting for a government that is committed to a philosophy of service. The Vice President obeyed this directive and suspended his campaign. But his point had been made. Everyone knew that he was interested in the office. He suspended the campaign but he retained the body language of a President in waiting. Again, he didn't reckon with his boss's preferences and the calculations of the hawks of power who in due course surrounded Obasanjo. Those hawks managed to convince the President that Atiku is disloyal and should be discarded. The President had enough evidence of treachery, and he soon made it known that before his very eyes, Atiku would never be President of Nigeria. And perhaps to show that there would be no vacancy in 2007, Obasanjo's spin-doctors began to simulate a third term agenda whose effect would be in contravention of the Constitution. When Vice President Atiku made the mistake in a famous interview of assuring the public that President Obasanjo will leave in 2007 and that the administration will respect the Constitution, his problems assumed gigantic proportions. The President unleashed the might of his office on his Deputy, so much that today, the Vice President is fighting for his future, politically and literally. He has been turned into a political leper. Anyone who is seen around him is immediately targeted for political elimination. In the recent registration exercise in the PDP, Atiku's loyalists who presumably held the levers of power in the party were pushed aside, and the party has since been reconstituted along the lines of Obasanjo's whims. If Atiku had not shown interest in the Presidency, his lot would have been different. His Presidential ambition is now in a state of suspended animation. His staff and supporters have either been scattered or blackmailed into submission. His troops, all those Governors who used to queue up behind him, are seeking refuge on the other side. And where is Orji Kalu, the Governor of Abia state, the son of Mother Excellency ? Orji Kalu was the champion of the Igbo presidency agenda early in 2003, and he had pushed himself as a Presidential choice for 2003 and later 2007. He worked hard at the project so much that Ndigbo also bought into the idea even if there was no consensus that Orji Kalu would be the chosen Igbo man to go to Abuja. But Orji Kalu became too radical and he started criticising the incumbent President. He has paid dearly for this. His airline, Slok Air was grounded by the authorities, and although Slok air has since relocated to the West African coast, its aircraft can only enter Nigeria as a foreign airliner. Orji Kalu has been quiet since then. There are other Governors whose names have been associated with the 2007 race for President: Peter Odili of Rivers State, Obong Victor Attah of Akwa Ibom state, Chimaroke Nnamani of Enugu state, Adamu Muazu of Bauchi state, Abdullahi Adamu of Nasarawa state, Sani Yerima of Zamfara state and Ahmed Makarfi of Katsina state. For a while, posters bearing Sani Yerima's photographs appeared on the streets of Lagos. But at the moment, there is no Governor in Nigeria who can confidently and openly show interest in Obasanjo's job. Those who have printed campaign materials dare not push them to the public. Even when such Governors are asked questions about their ambitions, they are so scared they dare not talk about such things. They don't want to offend Baba, because they have seen what can happen to any Governor who stands up to the President. In 1999, Chief Olu Falae contested the Presidency with President Obasanjo. He lost the contest fair and square in part because he was not prepared for the high office. Between 1999 and 2003, it was not unusual to hear Olu Falae's voice in the public arena; he became a strong critic of the administration. But for a long time now, Falae has been conveniently quiet. He seems to have lost interest in the Presidency. Former Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari lost to President Obasanjo in the 2003 elections, and he went to court to challenge the results of that election. He lost at the Supreme Court, but not entirely as the apex court admitted that there were gross irregularities in the 2003 Presidential election. Obviously, Buhari is also affected by the politics that has developed around succession in 2007. He is no longer campaigning for presidency. He is more obsessed with ensuring that President Obasanjo and his supporters do not amend the Constitution to grant him an extension of tenure beyond 2007. In 2003, Dim Odumegwu Ojukwu also wanted to be President. In that election, his party, APGA had put up a good showing in the Eastern part of the country. Ojukwu was also one of President Obasanjo's most vocal critics. But as 2007 draws near, it is not known whether Dim Ojukwu would still run for President. Nobody has seen his posters anywhere. Chris Okotie who claims that God has anointed him as Nigeria's next President spent a lot of money earlier in the year to remind Nigerians of what His Lord told him. He says he will bring a F.R.E.S.H perspective to governance. In the face of the politics of Third term and indications that anyone who lays claim to Obasanjo's seat could get into trouble, Okotie too has gone underground. He now runs his presidential campaign within the safe quarters of his church. The only man whose posters are still in the streets is Rochas Okorocha but nobody is taking him seriously because he is a well-known supporter of the President and the third term agenda. A few billboards belonging to former President Ibrahim Babangida can also be seen in major cities, but the truth is that IBB is not campaigning vigorously to be President in 2007. He had made a few high profile appearances earlier in the year but he has since withdrawn into his shell in Minna. General Mohammed Buba Marwa is another likely candidate who showed much passion about the 2007 race. He went round the country advertising his interest in the office. He collected quite a number of chieftaincy titles and at public occasions, he had a campaign team which left no one in doubt about his plans for the future. Only this week, Marwa was allegedly invited for discussion by the EFCC. This may have nothing to do with his 2007 ambition, but don't be surprised if the former military administrator of Lagos state also decides to lie low for a while. Only public figures who have fallen out of favour with Aso rock get invited by the EFCC! And the easiest way to get into trouble is to show interest in the Presidential seat. In 1999 and 2003, the great Gani Fawehinmi had mobilised the National Conscience Party for politics and power. Now, this is a man who has no reason to be afraid of President Obasanjo and his EFCC, but he and the National Conscience Party are not providing an alternative to Obasanjo. Chief Fawehinmi has not declared interest in the 2007 Presidential race. You may also ask: where are all the others who at one time or the other wanted to be President of Nigeria: Jim Nwobodo, Pere Ajunwa, Abubakar Rimi, Barnabas Gemade, Sarah Jibril, Joseph Wayas? Where are they? So who will succeed Obasanjo? Government officials and Obasanjo's supporters are likely to tell you that they cannot see anybody on the political scene. The only man that can succeed Obasanjo they seem to insist, is Obasanjo. If people do not show interest in the Presidency, it would be difficult to force them to do so. But the silence that we find is not because there is no ambition in the hearts of Nigerians, it is simply because the system has been contrived in such a way that only one man has become the issue in Nigerian politics. Nobody wants to offend that one man. And when that one man is asked a question about his alleged third term plans on television, and he deliberately ignores the question, the effect is that the political class is further intimidated. But must we give up? Under General Abacha, the situation was very much the same as this. Abacha intimidated everyone away from politics and the Presidency. But one man at the time stood up against him. His name is M. D. Yusuf. When all the parties and politicians started singing Abacha-forever, M. D. Yusuf placed adverts in the papers and presented himself as an alternative. We need such men of courage at this time. This article was first published December 25, 2005
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