The Peoples Democratic Party rose from a special session of its National Executive Council meeting a few days ago in Abuja, to announce that neither the party nor the President has any intentions whatsoever to violate the Nigerian constitution and impose a third term agenda on Nigerians. Ojo Maduekwe who spoke on behalf of the party further explained that the party has not been involved in any clandestine attempt to manipulate the legislative process to achieve a similar objective. President Obasanjo attended that NEC meeting, so in a sense the statement reflected his own resolve as well. On the surface of it, this declaration ought to lay all worries about an offensive elongation of the tenure of the Obasanjo Presidency beyond 2007 to rest. But can the PDP be trusted?

What the party has managed to do, if you read between the lines, is to tell Nigerians that only the National Assembly has the powers to amend the Constitution, and it has before it about 100 amendments including a review of the tenure of Governors and Presidents, and that the PDP believes in legislative independence and would not in any way stand in the way of the legislature although it is committed to the stability of the Nigerian state. Maduekwe added: "Let it be further understood that the PDP will only give support to proposals for amendments that are democratic, of general application and are conducive to the stability and good governance of the Federal Republic." Interpretation: if the National Assembly and the state House of Assembly resolve, as representatives of the people, that the tenure of elected officials be amended: three terms of four years each, or two terms of five years each, or a retention of the present status, then so be it.

The legislature cannot name any specific beneficiary, but if it so happens that President Obasanjo or the Governors or even the lawmakers themselves would benefit from such an amendment, so long as it is "a democratic resolution, of general application (!), and conducive to the stability and good governance of the Federal Republic", then so be it. Nigerian politicians are masters of ambiguity. They don't talk straight. Please note the emphasis on "general application". And please ask: who determines what is conducive to the stability and good governance of Nigeria?

The affirmation of good faith by the PDP on the third term agenda, is to be placed alongside the recent realisation that anybody anywhere in the country who opposes the idea and insists that Obasanjo must go in 2007 suddenly finds himself in trouble. Vice President Abubakar Atiku started having serious problems with his boss when he announced publicly that the President has assured him that they would leave in 2007. Alami, the Governor of Bayelsa state, has also said that he became Baba's enemy the moment he told him that he would not support any attempt to extend the tenure of this government. One prominent Nigerian was said to have made a speech where he denounced the Obasanjo-must-stay campaigners and argued that in 2007, the President must pack his luggage and return to Ota. A week later, the EFCC reportedly put out the word that the man may be invited for questioning. The fellow has not spoken a word since then. He has gone underground.

What the PDP says therefore is one thing, public perception and the attitude of the Presidency is another. If the truth must be told, the pervasive impression is that we are already drifting towards full blown authoritarianism. President Obasanjo has suddenly become the main issue of Nigerian politics. Nigerians are reading his lips, and he is not saying much. His associates are watching his gestures, and each group is taking whatever cue it can draw from the old man's peculiar style. The PDP may have said something (the party has no reputation for consistency!) but the President himself must continue to reassure Nigerians that he would not behave like Omar Bongo of Gabon or Yoweri Museveni of Uganda. He claims that he has done so already. He should keep doing so then and start behaving accordingly. I have argued before now that President Obasanjo cannot, will not, and must not stay beyond 2007 because it is not in his interest to do so. But who knows exactly what is on Obasanjo's mind?

Less than two years to the end of his tenure the President is yet to embark on an exit programme. When Nigerians insist that he is working on a third term agenda, they are ordinarily passing a judgement on his character. They are saying that they do not trust him; they do not consider him a gentleman. They are also invariably passing a comment on his leadership in the last six years. There are not too many people out there today who can vouch for President Obasanjo. Even if he leaves in 2007 without any hitches, the people are bound to say that he had to leave because he couldn't stay. President Obasanjo ought to be worried that this is what the people of Nigeria think of him. This is their verdict on his leadership. This is how they measure all that he has done in the public domain in the last six years. When a leader loses the trust of his own people, he has lost something very valuable.

For now, however, what is certain is that the PDP has put the National Assembly on the spot. It has pushed all talks about a likely third term agenda to the legislature. In January the National Assembly will embark on a road show to seek the people's inputs into the constitutional amendment process. I have little faith in such road shows. Statements made at public hearings do not necessarily offer a picture of the reality in Nigerian communities or the feelings of the people for the basic reason that in this country, you can always organise a public hearing to give you a predetermined outcome. You can hire a crowd; or plant your own speakers, stage-manage the process. For a fee, there would be enough people who would tell the lawmakers what they want to hear, or what they think would not get them into trouble. We do not yet have a culture of free expression. Nigerians live in fear. In the presence of government and its officials, the people feel intimidated, constrained and oppressed.

The National Assembly legislators and all the lawmakers in the states must know that the rest of Nigeria is watching them. The legislature is perhaps the most distrusted arm of government. In six years, our lawmakers have displayed a penchant for corruption and acquisition of privileges and gratification. They can be rented to make any laws that would suit the man of power. On other occasions, each time any lawmaker tried to stand up and confront the tyranny of the Presidency (Okadigbo, Anyim Anyim, Ghali Na'Abba, Aminu Masari), such a lawmaker was pushed down and pushed out by the oppressive machinery of the PDP, the Presidency and the renegades in the Assembly. In the states, the lawmakers, as a rule, work for the Governor. They refer to him as their leader. And the leader is expected to look after his boys by making them comfortable. The fear therefore is that the present legislature at all levels, which has shown a poor capacity for independence and activism in defence of the common good, can be used to produce any kind of constitution.

To amend the Nigerian constitution to achieve any objective, the Presidency or its supporters only need to bribe the members of the National Assembly and there have been reports of an attempt to do so. In the individual states, what is required is the support of the Governors who are in a position to tell the lawmakers what to do. And since there is a tacit assurance that whatever is amended will be of "general application", the machinery of constitutional review may be activated mainly by sheer self-interest which is in abundant supply in the corridors of power. So, really, all that talk about legislative independence should be taken with a pinch of salt. In Nigerian politics, legislative independence is nearly an absolute myth, a big lie. But two points need to be made: any form of constitutional amendment that seeks to ambush the people can only result in tension and anarchy. When that anarchy descends, its authors would be the first casualties!

Civil society organisations cannot afford to give up. Let no one be persuaded that the National Executive Council of the PDP means well. Until President Obasanjo leaves in 2007, every group in society must begin to shout from the rooftops that Nigeria is bigger than one man, that politics should be about ideas not personalities, and that there is nothing that President Obasanjo has not been able to achieve in the last six years that he would be able to put on the ground by remaining in power against the wishes of the people. The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has already shown the kind of danger that we face when its Executive Council turned it into a political platform for canvassing support for a President under whose watch the manufacturing industry has suffered so much.

There are other groups in Corporate Nigeria today which are also supporting the President, and would be prepared to do anything to remain close to power. To provide a counterweight to such groups for whom democracy means nothing but opportunism, every group that holds a contrary view, the pro-democracy coalition, should step forward and be counted on the side of progress and the common good. Let pastors use their pulpits to mobilise the people; let the alfas preach at the jummat; professional organisations and social clubs should develop interest in the political environment, Nigerians in diaspora should begin to speak more loudly; those who have the means and the opportunity should begin to educate the people... As it were, the future of Nigeria rests on the shoulders of all right-thinking members of society. We must insist that the National Assembly and all men of power wherever they may be, who can truncate the course of history must join our ranks.

And oh, if they do not, Lord Almighty, the owner of the earth and all that is within it, who in his infinite Grace has created Nigeria and all that is in it, for the benefit of the people, and not for one man or cabal, so that we may prosper and not perish, let them, all the enemies of stability and good governance, reap the whirlwind. Our Lord and our Father, may that whirlwind come from the hottest part of the universe and may it be of general application upon their heads...Thank you Lord for you have answered our prayers...

Robot  # 1 | 04.12.2005 11:10

The Peoples Democratic Party rose from a special session of its National Executive Council meeting a few days ago in Abuja, to announce that neither the party nor the President has any intentions whatsoever to violate the Nigerian constitution and impose a third term ...Read the full article.

Unregistered  # 2 | 04.12.2005 12:00

well said. Let those with ears let them hear! Aluta! Gwobezentashi

Abraxas  # 3 | 04.12.2005 13:39

Hi, Guys! It looks like we will have to do the inevitable once again, this time, for General Olu Obasanjo: we will have to fast and pray, like we did in April, May and 1st week of June 1998 for General Sani Abacha. This time around the megalomania we are confronted with is very deep; really deep! So, let us pray harder. PRAYER FOR A DYING NATION: Thank you Almighty God, for giving us our own country, Nigeria. Thank you for the wealth and abundance of people, fertile land, water, forests, petroleum, solid minerals, and a lot more you have blessed us with. Father, we know that it is through the machination of our kith and kin that the people, love and unity we need to enjoy the blessings you have given us continue to elude us. We are tired of suffering and wallowing in poverty in the midst of plenty. Father, we are crying to you to release us from the bondage of hatred, greed and sheer wickedness of man. Uproot and render totally ineffective O Lord, all those who fan hatred and instigate violence in the land Uproot and render totally ineffective O Lord, all those who steal the wealth of our country to enrich themselves and other nations. Uproot and render totally ineffective O Lord, all those whose greed impoverish the common man. Uproot and render ineffective O Lord, all whose thoughts, words and deeds threatened peace in our land. Uproot and render ineffective O Lord, all those who lack the humility to serve but only want to rule at all costs. Grant us all these, and more, O Lord. Amen. - by Chief G.A. Adams (FNMGS); Late Chairman & CEO, Multinational Expertise Ltd; past GMD NNPC (2002). PRAYER FOR A GERONTOCRAT: Lord Almighty, the owner of the earth and all that is within it, who in his infinite Grace has created Nigeria and all that is in it, for the benefit of the people, and not for one man or cabal, so that we may prosper and not perish. Let them all, the enemies of stability and good governance, reap the whirlwind. Our Lord and our Father, may that whirlwind come from the hottest part of the universe and may it be of general application upon their heads... (Halleluiah) Thank you Lord for you have answered our prayers... (Amen) - by Dr. R. Abati (2005).

kristina  # 4 | 04.12.2005 20:14

well said Mr. Reuben,i implore all Nigerians to pray to God about this issue,Nigeria needs our prayers

Unregistered  # 5 | 05.12.2005 03:31

Are you sure that you can trust this guy called Abati? When Gani was saying the same things, Abati was the first to jump on his throat as OBJ is now jumping on the throats of his own critics. Why then the sudden 360 degrees turn by Abati? What is the main reason behind Abati’s present MISTRUST of his hero? Can Abati be trusted again? Was he ever trustworthy? To me, they are all the same bird of the same flock, from Mango/ILN/Palamedes to Soyinka to Abati and OBJ. They can never produce more than we see today in the person of MESSIAH OBJ. They will all argue AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN for a constitutional arrangement that includes Northern Sharia while excluding Southern Shango and other Southern mores. These people must first love their own before they can love me and you. Nay, they must first be capable of loving anything Southern before we demand that they begin to speak for us and for our interests under their current fascist design and machinations. If they failed to do some justice for their own (Bola Ige), then on what ground do you stand in expecting them to understand the meaning of justice when dealing with me or you or when dealing with any other Southern component? Therefore, before we take Abati and other two-faced chameleons seriously, we must first ascertain, prove, and certify that the self-haters are capable of renouncing their self-hate! Anything else would yield the same recurring results: OBJ 1, OBJ 2, OBJ 3, OBJ’s clones and protégés and mediocrity and egocentricism!! The ONLY consolation? The past smart Fascists have no heroes today. Dumb Fascist will have no graves tomorrow; they will all be burned and thrown into the River Niger along with the exhumed fat of their 60-years-old vain “mothers”. That is my sincere stance. Deal with it or die.

Unregistered  # 6 | 05.12.2005 07:28

mr abati, while saying emphatically that you do not trust national and states assembly people in amending the constitution, you urged the civil socities, pro-democracy groups, imams, pastors etc to be on guard. for what? to carry arms? if we cannot trust a very important arm of our democratic institutions what are we really saying. one thing i find very funny about the latter day apostle of democracy is that, on one hand they claim to be defending democracy but on the other will condemn any democratic moves. mr abati should use his clout to promote democracy and not destroy it. the legislature federal and states are peopled by nigerians of high integrity, what is mr abati trying to achieve by saying these eminent nigerians are not people to be trusted. what kind of human being will make statements without thinking of the future implications. if by 2007, the present pro democracy activists are elected into the assemblies can we really trust them going by this write up. abdul oroh an honourable gentleman is a member of the federal house of representatives, is he one of those people abati is talking about. there is a serious danger to democracy and nigeria survival not by this needless third term debacle but by the unrestraint, unscientific thinking of those who write things for the public. are you saying now that any person caught with overwhelming evidence of corruption but who is trying to divert people's attention by claiming he is being persecuted should be taken seriously? why cant they be encouraged to defend themselves and absolve themselves of corruption. audu ogbeh has consistently deny any financial wrongdoing, is he being persecuted too. those who are caught like alami should not be allowed to get away with crimes because they are opposed to third term. the vice president who you said is in "real trouble" should clear himself of those troubles. jacob zuma in south africa was similarly accused, he believes his problems is politically motivated but he is allowing the law to take its cause. if anybody likes let them be opposed to any term, as long as he's not corrupt. am tired of people talking about other governors being spared because they are not oppose to the president, today's world has become a "global room" any corrupt deal should be exposed with facts. plain facts. raw facts. solid facts. enough of all these playing to the gallery mr abati. and by the way what do you mean by "exit programme"?

Unregistered  # 7 | 05.12.2005 11:34

To the poster above.... What is your problem? Is your meal ticket in trouble? What do you mean stand by for what? Everyone should be on guard to watch our leadership and make sure selfish interests and abracadabra strategies in the name of "sustained reforms" dont throw us into more chaos.

Unregistered  # 8 | 06.12.2005 18:45

Lord, All Power belong to you, and by your divine immutable will you give it to whomsoever you will. You gave it to Mathew Aremu Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999 for your divine purpose. Therefore, every Sambalat and Tobias working to thwart your divine appointment and purpose and to disrupt this Nehemiah task, let them be uprooted and scattered: IN THE MIGHTY NAME OF JESUS (AMEN) Those who ridicule your servants' efforts to stamp out corruption, to re-invent our economy, to reform the polity, to assuage hurt feelings and correct injustice and all enemies of peace and stability seeking violent disintegration of Nigeria, Oh Lord, touch them so they may change and if they refuse to change, visit DIVINE JUDGEMENT on them. (AMEN)