The World Is Watching Us
By Reuben Abati

The international community is taking more than a casual interest in Nigeria and its forthcoming elections. The news is that Nigerians, the ordinary people, the long suffering electorate are somewhat indifferent, even if they are aware of this, our leaders who seem to know are more interested in covering their own tracks and using government machinery and resources to sell propaganda to the world, and play the politics of narcissism; civil society, the location of the aggrieved members of the Nigerian society provides a counterbalance by using a broad-based international network and access to strengthen its voice and capacity and to insist on the need to address the transformation of Nigerian politics into a peculiar form of social pathology. But why should the international community be interested in our affairs?

The first major reason is economic. Nigeria's vast oil and gas resource has ensured that Nigeria's stability and security are intertwined with the security interests of the United States and major European countries, and even now, China which appears to be making major inroads into Africa. Since 9/11, America in particular has shown more interest in the Gulf of Guinea as a stable source of oil and gas. It has found here an alternative to the rather problematic politics of the Persian Gulf. Nigeria provides about sixty per cent of the oil from Africa's Oil Triangle.

{mosgoogle}The presence of oil multinationals in Nigeria doing business is a practical demonstration of what appears to be a convergence of interests between Nigeria and the West. There are also massive investments by these foreign economies in other aspects of the Nigerian economy. Unfortunately, Nigeria's economic significance is made more costly by years of poor governance and the incompetence of the local leadership elite. If the 2007 elections were to result in a breakdown of law and order, especially in the Niger Delta, the economic interests of these Western countries could be endangered. Already, the restiveness in the Niger Delta is bad for business.

If Nigeria implodes, with its 140 million people, over 400 ethnic nationalities, and its complex religious and ethnic politics, the stability of the entire West and Central African region, will also be threatened. Imagine Darfur times 10, and Somalia on a grander scale. This can create a humanitarian crisis that will put so much strain on international resources. The collapse of Nigeria will reverse the successes that have been recorded in the last 10 years through the use of democratization to stabilise African nations and cause too much of an international embarrassment: not only will it deepen Afro-pessimism, it will fuel a brand of neo-nationalism that may target Western imperialism as a catalyst in the failure of African states.

Third, if rogue elements were to come to power, as a fall-out of the April elections, they may introduce policies that will threaten the gains of the neo-liberalism of the Obasanjo years. Or worse, the country could face a long drawn out crisis of political legitimation which would be bad news for both Nigerians and outside stakeholders.

The April 2007 elections are especially uncertain. Historically, Nigeria does not have a record successful of civilian to civilian transitions. The First Republic (1960 -1966) ended abruptly in a fratricidal war in part because of problems that attended the 1964 Federal elections and the failure of the Balewa government to respect the rules of democracy. In 1983, the Shehu Shagari government organized a shoddy, the NPN-or nothing, do-or-die elections which resulted in so much mayhem which made the intervention of the military inevitable.

The Obasanjo government conducted elections in 2003, but that was merely a renewal of mandate by an incumbent government at the centre; now in 2007, there will be a change of personnel across party lines, on a massive scale, with about 12, 000 elective positions to be contested by over 30, 000 office seekers in 50 political parties, voting in over 100, 000 centres, and an estimated 50 million plus voters. The preparations for the elections, the politics of the electoral process, and the signals emanating from the political parties give much cause for concern. The questions being asked therefore are: will the Nigerian elections succeed? What can be done by the international community before, during the elections and after? What kind of support can be provided to both government and civil society to ensure that the process is credible and free and fair?

It is to these and the underlying issues that the media, foreign policy establishments, donor agencies and think tanks in the West are now devoting much attention and resources. In the United States alone, policy organizations including the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), the Africa Studies Programme at Northwestern University, the Council on Foreign Relations, the US Institute of Peace, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, and the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars, together, and individually, have been organising seminars and conferences on the Nigerian situation "to help inform US and international policy toward Nigeria".

In England, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, the Chatham House and the School of Oriental and African Studies, CAPSS as well as other policy groups have been organizing discussions of the Nigerian process. Institutions in Germany, Canada and China are not left out. About ten countries in Africa are having their elections this year, but there is special international focus on Nigerian politics, preparations for the 2007 elections, the Niger Delta, and pre/post election assessments. More qualitative discussion and analysis of Nigeria's electoral process is going on in universities and policy think tanks in the West than at home here in Nigeria. Whereas there is a synergy between the intellectual establishment and the state in Western countries, which facilitates the growth of ideas and knowledge about the world, in Nigeria, there is a disconnect which promotes illiteracy, love of rumours and hatred of ideas. However, that is another matter.

In the last six months, Nigerian political figures, and persons in public life (Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Professor Pat Utomi, Governor Orji Kalu, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, Dr Oby Ezekwesili, Information Minister Frank Nweke, Chief Akin Osuntokun, Chief Ojo Maduekwe) in addition to labour leaders, human rights activists, development experts, Nigerian social scientists and public opinion leaders have been regular participants at the international forums where Nigeria's future is analysed and debated by international audiences. Intelligence reviews are being written. There are African experts in these policy establishments who know Nigerian more than many Nigerians. They are not relying on diplomatic dispatches from their Embassies in Nigeria. They are gathering information about the Nigerian situation, from Nigerians, who are invited to their own capital cities. They also visit Nigeria. They know us.

It must be flattering to Nigerians that their affairs have always been so important to the rest of the world. But these forums are not mere talk shops. They offer the Western policy establishment a sense of how peculiar Nigerian democracy is, its complexity and a sober awakening to the fact that the democratization agenda at the heart of the American foreign policy process for example, is not a deus ex machina, but a complex proposition determined by local realities and perceptions, its outlook varies from one country to another, from Nigeria to Algeria, to India and Indonesia.

But so much information is gathered. This explains why the Obasanjo government takes these forums seriously. The more articulate members of the Obasanjo team are on permanent stand-by: they can be found wherever Nigeria is being discussed in the West. You need to see them at work. They sell Obasanjo's achievements, they offer assurances that the elections will hold as scheduled; and they never fail to advertise Atiku Abubakar to the international community as an "indicted official" who must not be allowed to contest for public office!

These are Obasanjo's Alsatian dogs; they adopt "bolekaja tactics" at international forums where civility is expected, but they use their brains; their brief is to demolish any anti-Obasanjo argument as advanced by Nigerian civil rights activists, Niger Delta militants and aggrieved Nigerians in diaspora. The Nigerian government has also engaged the services of image laundering companies in Europe and America: to monitor the foreign media and intellectual establishment and help sell Obasanjo who obviously is dreaming of a career as an international statesman after leaving office. Half of the energy that is being devoted to propaganda by the Nigerian government could be more creatively used. Only desperate governments (Abacha, Babangida) pursue image laundering with the kind of mania that we are witnessing.

In an age of communications technology and internet, the world has become truly flat. Telling lies and selling emotions as a strategy of international relations is self-defeating. The only caveat is the impression of ideological balance that is constructed at many of these forums. Nigerians are very good at washing their dirty linens in the marketplace. Just as the Obasanjo boys sell the government to the world, Atiku and his supporters have also done a good job of exposing Obasanjo's eight years of paternalism without fatherhood. The reduction of Nigerian politics to the jockeying of ego has thus been internationalised. The international community is therefore justifiably disturbed by the absence of an elite consensus about the future stability of Nigeria.

There is reason to be worried about the manner in which Nigerian governments and public institutions, the police and other security agencies, the political parties, INEC and the EFCC behave as if they are above democracy and the law. Less than 50 days to the commencement of the elections, the threat of violence is certain, INEC is yet to print ballot papers or take delivery of enough voting machines, ballot stations have not been designated, there has been no training for the more than 100, 000 ad-hoc staff that INEC intends to recruit, the legal framework of the election is contentious as the President is yet to give assent to the Electoral Act 2006 (as amended)..There are other unresolved legal issues (the disqualification of candidates, the conflict between the Joint Tax Board and INEC over tax certificates, the right of candidates to campaign freely, the embossment of photographs on ballot papers, INEC's final list, the role of EFCC and litigations in court. There are doubts even among Nigerians on the question of whether or not the elections will hold in April; the Minister of Justice has been quoted as saying time is "too short". International observers are asking: Is there a Plan B? Will the elections be postponed and if so, what would happen?

I think a Plan B as defined will create a constitutional crisis that will further overheat the polity because Section 135 of the Constitution will need to be amended before any postponement of the elections can be contemplated. Nigerians want the elections to proceed as scheduled. They are willing to accept flawed elections, rather than delayed or no elections at all. They are impatient because they want change by all means. The past eight years has not translated into what they call "the dividends of democracy": functional public infrastructure, prosperity, employment opportunities, real growth and something to hope for. Nigerians are also willing to accept a level of electoral fraud that will be unacceptable even in some African countries.

Whatever is the outcome of the elections, no matter how flawed, they will accept it. Where politics is concerned, Nigerians have diminished expectations. It is this acceptance of democracy as a form of blackmail, that will provide a shield against all the doomsday scenarios about the 2007 elections. Nor do I think that the Niger Delta will pose a problem during the elections: the militants will simply find new occupation as thugs for politicians and escorts for ballot boxes. After the elections, there will be litigations, and may be some violence, but the beauty of Nigeria is the ability of the people to pull back from the brink mysteriously at the last minute, and to accept tragedy with accustomed Gnosticism.

What should the international community do?: mount pressure on the Obasanjo government to proceed with the elections; provide support for groups in civil society to carry out oversight functions during and after the elections, send international monitors and observers and insist on access, deny public office holders and their families visas between now and July 2007, if they already have visas, cancel them, and post-election, help to define emergent issues, and the need for the new government to return to those basic challenges of nation-building which the Obasanjo government mishandled: constitutional review, the Niger Delta, social infrastructure and how to give the people a voice in their own democracy.

Robot  # 1 | 11.03.2007 05:57

The World Is Watching Us By Reub...Read the full article.

akuluouno  # 2 | 11.03.2007 06:27

Why do elections in Nigeria attract so much hype and brinkmanship thereby falsely portraying democracy as a radioactive system of governance? Senegal just held an election and the world never held symposia inviting all the defenders of Wade to come and brief them. Also is this fallacy or blackmail that should Nigeria implode, the whole of Africa will be in a crisis of gargantuan proportions. I believe that any implosion will see Nigerians depart to their tents because I cannot envisage for instance a man from Sokoto fighting a guerilla warfare in say Gboko, for what? In Lagos and other connurbations, people will quickly depart to their tents. Nigeria does not have the capacity to threaten any Africa state because of a domestic implosion. The international community will contain us easily. Yes the world is watching us just as the cat is watching the mouse and not as a mother doting on his new born baby. Any misstep which I cannot forsee because of the proliferation of lily-livered and mischevious denizens in that space, and the fact that head or tail, the presidency goes back to the North, will only result in the enthronement of a true confederal arrangement to the happiness of Nigerians with conscience and the rapid development of the country similar to the period bw 60 and 66. :D :biggrin: :wink:

Son of the Delta  # 3 | 11.03.2007 11:53

Am not sure this last second solution would work for Nigeria this time around!

nero africanus  # 4 | 11.03.2007 12:03

=akuluouno;160600>Why do elections in Nigeria attract so much hype and brinkmanship thereby falsely portraying democracy as a radioactive system of governance? Senegal just held an election and the world never held symposia inviting all the defenders of Wade to come and brief them. Also is this fallacy or blackmail that should Nigeria implode, the whole of Africa will be in a crisis of gargantuan proportions. I believe that any implosion will see Nigerians depart to their tents because I cannot envisage for instance a man from Sokoto fighting a guerilla warfare in say Gboko, for what? In Lagos and other connurbations, people will quickly depart to their tents. Nigeria does not have the capacity to threaten any Africa state because of a domestic implosion. The international community will contain us easily. Yes the world is watching us just as the cat is watching the mouse and not as a mother doting on his new born baby. Any misstep which I cannot forsee because of the proliferation of lily-livered and mischevious denizens in that space, and the fact that head or tail, the presidency goes back to the North, will only result in the enthronement of a true confederal arrangement to the happiness of Nigerians with conscience and the rapid development of the country similar to the period bw 60 and 66. :D :biggrin: :wink: akuluouno, i dont quite agree . if nigeria implodes , africa will face a disastrous catastrophe this is what i mean the very structure of nigeria as it is right now , the hatred between its ethnic nationalities, the non productivity of its economy ( almost all the economic activity is dependent on the oil sector) will actually cause a very bitter and long war. in 1967,nigerians went to war to rein in a seceeding part of it. nothing much was at stake at that time. but now nigeria is nothing without its oil. the north will be fighting for its life,there will be a very bitter civil war, with the northern elite goading their people on. the south ( who may in any case may not even agree to be together ) will have to fight the north from the human angle, i am sure that nigerians will not stay put like the biafrans , they will flee . the population of lagos is 14 million or so . that is bigger than the entire population of the two nations to the west of it combined - togo and benin. i very much doubt the capacity of those nations to take nigerian refugees. the population of eastern nigeria is much more than cameroun and trust , the igbos and ibibios and the other ethnic nationalities will not stay put they will naturally flee to the east through cameroun . that country will not have the capability to handle refugees on that scale. it will be like the ethiopian famine , it was so bad and as the second most populous country in africa , their neighbours could not absorb them , today there are seizable communities of ethiopians everywhere from canada to australia THIS IS ACTUALLY MY BIGGEST FEAR FOR NIGERIA

MrOneNaija  # 5 | 11.03.2007 22:55

NIGERIANS WILL NOT ACCEPT A REPEAT OF 2003 It is unacceptable the assumption by Abati that Nigerians will make do with a failed election no matter how rigged or flawed. Nigerians and the international community must be told in no uncertain terms that a repeat of the 2003 electoral charade which Obasanjo's PDP imposed on the nation will most certainly be rejected by the people. In the following commentary which was published on The Nigerian Village Square last January, I advocate an uncompromising repudiation by the people of Nigeria of the desperate attempt by Obasanjo at political self-perpetuation through rigging and other unwholesome schemes. http://www.nigeriavillagesq... Written by Aonduna Tondu Wednesday, 17 January 2007 THE 2007 ELECTIONS IN NIGERIA : WILL AMERICA AND THE REST OF THE WORLD BE ON THE SIDE OF THE PEOPLE ? A critical question that should preoccupy citizens as they anticipate the watershed elections scheduled for later this year is to what extent the people are prepared to go in order to defend their vote and by extension their sovereignty. This issue of protecting the sovereign will of the Nigerian people needs to be reiterated in the light of an increasingly worrisome development which has seen the dueling President Obasanjo and Vice-President Atiku apparently competing with each other for the attention of soi-disant Washington power brokers. This need for external validation especially on the part of a tyrant who has shown through his words and deeds that he harbors disdain for fellow Nigerians and their legitimate aspirations has profound implications not just for the national polity but also for our relations with the outside world. By succumbing to a psychosis that is akin to a negation of the primacy of national legitimacy, Nigeria’ s key politicians invariably betray their tenuous claim to leadership and patriotism. Besides the continued desecration of the Nigerian presidency that is implicit in the obsequious mien Mr. president adopts in his dealings with his American counterpart as well as his American ‘associates’ in general, the largely kowtowing diplomacy that puts the selfish considerations – his political self-preservation - of a garrison commander over and above the superior interests of the nation must be seen as a threat that we can only ignore at our own peril. Remarkably, we are diminished in the eyes of the world even as our diplomatic clout is badly undermined. This in itself is a potent irony for a regime that is hell bent on squandering the nation’s resources, supposedly on an international image-enhancing project. These days, when the one-man vaudevillian bazaar departs Abuja and takes its freak show to New York and other locations around the globe, its marionettes mouth an eerily familiar refrain of ‘Heart of Africa’ – an egregious propaganda construct harping on the anti-people “reforms” of the regime. Of late, the badly digested, ready-made mantra of neo-liberal salvation as espoused by Aso Rock carpetbaggers in the likes of el-Rufai and Nweke Jr. would seem to have acquired a new stridency – in fact a desperation that is being fueled by a dictator’s single-minded obsession to hang on to power, at least by proxy. Today, this new religiosity called the president’s “reform agenda” is presented to local audiences and increasingly to foreign interests as a do-or-die matter. A key element of the reform rant is its equation with one individual – the supreme ruler of Aso Rock. “No Obasanjo, no reform”, was the gospel of the aborted third term fraud. After the ‘term-elongation’ debacle, they started singing “No PDP, no Nigeria ”! This is in a sense a variant of the initial scarecrow. In their usual deception, they say their callous policies or “reforms” have made Nigerians happier. Only Yar’adua of Obasanjo’s PDP can maintain the “reforms” of his godfather, they insist. Sadly, to the applause of a few foreign courtiers in the likes of Andrew Young and his other American so-called friends of the Abuja despot! We are reminded that an Obasanjo scion has reportedly told the world that apart from Andrew Young, some characters within the current Bush administration did canvass for Obasanjo’s failed third term plot. Some of the American ‘associates’ of the tyrant are now said to be supporting the Yar’adua imposition for the 2007 presidential polls. Andrew Young, Carl Masters and the reactionary pro-regime fringe in the USA will fail once more in their anti-people adventure in Nigeria because they have demonstrated time and time again that the welfare of the Nigerian people is the least of their worries. This cast seems contented with its revelry on the Nigerian gravy train. It should come as no surprise to a great number of concerned citizens that Andrew Young and his partners in the Goodworks International (GWI) outfit are reportedly marketing - at great monetary benefit to themselves - the “Heart of Africa” boondoggle and other dubious pet projects of the kleptocratic Obasanjo autocracy. But a far greater source of disquiet for the people of our country and indeed for all our genuine friends the world over is the negative influence the activities of the dictator’s foreign allies are bound to have on the fragile Nigerian polity as has been the case with their support for the undemocratic and deeply offensive “term elongation” scam. The political distortion that is inherent in the antics of these American and other foreign ‘associates’ of the Obasanjo tyranny must be deemed as alienating to the average Nigerian, to say the least. It goes without saying that the nature of the peregrinations of some of these alien actors in our national socio-economic spaces coupled with a depressingly over-bearing rhetoric in recent times on the part of representatives of countries such as the USA and Britain are reason enough for Nigerians to be vigilant. The type of vigilance required of citizens is such that would, amongst other things, guard against any unholy attempt to aid and abet an undemocratic imposition in the forthcoming presidential election. A situation whereby Nigeria’s key politicians tend to imagine that their political relevance or legitimacy is assured primarily through a knee-jerk subservience toward foreign entities – consequential or not – should be condemned as an assault on our sovereignty. It is also inimical to the defense of our collective aspirations. A key question thus arises: How do the Nigerian people, with the friendly support of the international community, work to safeguard democracy and the rule of law in the land? It is trite to say that America lays claim to the leadership of the world today. Partly on account of its dwindling fortunes in much of the Middle-East , Uncle Sam has, for better or for worse escalated the level of his presence in Nigeria ’s backyard, not to mention in the country per se. Yet, that presence should not be used as a corrupting influence in our national politics. Nigerians must resist any temptation of political interference – partisan or not - in our polity by alien concerns and their operatives. The Nigerian people’s interests must at all times take precedence over the tiresome excuse of defending an alien government’s national interests in far-away places. As for the rest of the international community – the U.N. and pro-democracy/human rights groups in particular – , they should endeavor to offer moral support to the necessary effort that Nigerians and their various tiers of government would come up with aimed at ensuring that the 2007 elections are conducted in a context of transparency with results reflecting the true wishes of the people. This means that rigging and any other corrupt practices prior to or after the elections must be decisively rejected. This is the only way the international community can be seen as standing with the Nigerian people as they express their sovereign will to choose their own representatives. We should demonstrate that we have learnt from the enduring lessons of the 2003 electoral fiasco. Nigerians will never accept any impositions in 2007. They will man the ramparts against any desperate move aimed at extending their suffering through the yoke of a self-serving and fraudulent reform agenda which has made Obasanjo and his cronies fatter and indecently richer at the expense of the long-suffering people of the nation. Also, citizens will consider as unacceptable any postponement of the April presidential election. It is a truism to state that the Nigerian voter is the ultimate repository of our national sovereignty. Unfortunately, though, the populace sometimes behaves as if it is unaware of its awesome role as both giver and taker of the power that is so routinely abused by the nation’s so-called representatives. The point ought to be emphasized nevertheless that in the final analysis, the responsibility for deciding who governs us must at all times rest with the Nigerian people. That is what democracy is all about. Surely, America and all our well-wishers should understand that. Aonduna Tondu New York

wasab2  # 6 | 12.03.2007 10:58

Thanks Reuben for this beauiful article. I wonder what legacy OBJ want to leave behind. From Atiku to Yar Adua to Buhari what have they got to offer.. nothing! They all want to get to power before they will now sit down to think what they would do with it and before you know it one term is gone and they will start politiking for another term to consolidate whatever rubbish they are doing. My fear is that I don't think Nigeria can wistand another wasted years before the whole thing blew up in their face. what Nigeria need now is solution thinking leaders that can restore hope and confidence in the populace, non of these leader possess this attribute. God has helped us so far, now we need to help our selves.

akuluouno  # 7 | 12.03.2007 13:07

SOD, Since what we have now has failed us for over 30 years, why do,nt we try what we rejected for very false reasons? Nero, I do not think that an implosion will lead to the kind of apocalypse that you have forecast since for instance the North has other resources to live on bar oil. It is inconcievable to proffer that the but for crude oil the North will not be viable? I think it is also one of those lies which have been told several times over and it has now dressed itself up in the borrowed agbada of truism. Reagarding the Northern predilection to let loose mayhem on other Nigerians because the oil and its dividends are about to run away from their grasp and control, I also think think that it does not have any rational explanation except we want to tie our unity to nothing more than crude oil and that the North is willing to decimate anyone who dares to take it away. This might make our northern brothers look like a bunch of killers waiting to maim whoever stands in their way to crude oil. The northerners I know are more intelligent and resourceful than that. :sad: :sad: :confused: :confused: :confused:

Karo Akarah  # 8 | 12.03.2007 17:12

Nigeria is one hot pot of gumbo and the mix is so thick that our throats are jamed by the glutonous greed of I want it all. what do we really, really, really want? For me the revolution is now here. Enough said.

Auspicious  # 9 | 17.03.2007 11:18

Oh wait a minute! Mr. Abati's weekly medicine wasn't dispensed by The Guardian this last Friday (yesterday the 17th)! Oh, that can mean only one thing: The Guardian is censoring him! This is unfair! The Guardian has been infiltrated by the goons! Ah, pekele-pekele, arugbo je gbeseeeee! Ah, aye mi! O ga ju! The End has come! Haaaa! Eeeeee! Ooooo! Owwwww! Baaaa! *A message from the NVS's department of rumor-mongering and wuru-wuru-to-the-answer shenanigization. Auspicious.