EIGHT months to the end of the present administration, and a shorter interval to the 2007 elections, it is possible for us to identify a number of signals, which need to be analysed, and addressed, and properly noted for their significance, as living and potent threats to the political transition that Nigeria seeks in 2007.

In 1998, the sudden death of General Sani Abacha provided Nigerians a divine opportunity to move the nation forward, and not surprisingly, the announcement of that momentous incident resulted in break-dancing on the streets of Nigeria. The people felt liberated, for Abacha's death marked, as it turned out, the spiritual death of military dictatorship. The surrealistic gain ascribed to this, was concretised in 1999 with the formal handing-over of power to civilians, and the beginning of Nigeria's Fourth Republic. We have had seven years of civilian rule, learning many lessons in the process, epiphanous and intriguing, frustrating but useful. Nigerians are unanimous in the assumption that the 2007 elections would represent yet another transition, the nature of which could have a definitive impact on our collective experience and destiny. The discovery at the moment, is the emergence of dangerous, warning signals, which for now point to a number of possibilities.

The first danger signal is the spread of violence ahead of the elections. Nobody needs any soothsayer to confirm the pervasive impression that the 2007 elections will be violent, bloody, and murderous with the likelihood of far-reaching after-effects. Already, corpses of political figures, their blood, and the tears of their widows and survivors remind us all too, poignantly, of the underdeveloped nature of Nigerian politics. It is the politics of strife and mischief. Because government remains the easiest and safest source of instant wealth, and public position, a ready source of relevance and enhanced status, Nigerian politicians are desperate for power. They are not interested in values or ethics. Like Shakespeare's Macbeth, they are driven by blind ambition, pursued with a single-minded volition that can, in turn, bring tragedy. "This wanton destruction of life" says Ken Nnamani, the Senate President, "is an evil sign of a bleak election year."

There are three possible implications of this. One, we are faced with the crisis of the politics of exclusion. Persons who are genuinely interested in public service, or those who seek to take an interest in the affairs of their nation, would be scared away from the field. Families are already holding meetings and advising their loved ones to suspend their political ambitions for now, until the Nigerian situation improves. But when will Nigeria improve? Wives of would-be political aspirants are appealing to their husbands not to turn them into emergency widows. Can anyone blame them having seen the sorrow of Mrs. Williams, and the frustrations of Mrs. Daramola, and before now, the anguish of late Justice Atinuke Ige? Almost automatically, fewer women would be interested in the politics of 2007. The gender character of political violence ahead of the 2007 transition process has been decidedly masculine. The language of political discourse has been muscular as well. The environment of politics is dominated by threats, curses, and inter-personal abuse. The second possibility is that of voter apathy.

On election day, and after, it is not impossible that many Nigerians would be tempted to watch the situation at it unfolds, rather than rush to the polling booths. In effect, we seem to be preparing for a democratic transition that may not be fully participatory. The third possibility is the implication of the reign of violence for a post-election Nigeria in 2007. With arms and ammunition being smuggled into the country, and with its concentration in criminal hands, after the elections, the same weapons of destruction would be turned no longer on political opponents, but ordinary Nigerians. Those weapons could be put to even more sinister use, as illustrated by the Niger Delta experience where former political enforcers have since transformed into revolutionary demagogues. By failing to find a solution to the patterns of violence in Nigerian politics, the ground is being prepared for a more serious national security challenge in 2007 and beyond. It is sad that on this score, our situation as Nigerians promises to get worse.

The second warning signal is what I have referred to elsewhere, as "the clash of the titans". Nigerian politics has always been dominated by elite conspiracy, masquerading as consensus. This elite class, exercising an illegal veto power over national processes, is diverse and complex, but its impact on national life, is nevertheless, far-reaching. The consensus among its members when it works, serves only narrow, selfish interests; it is the most potent threat to governance, and the root of the transformation of government into the equivalent of a secret society.

But whenever this class implodes within, when its members fail to reach a consensus that serves collective class interest, the country also suffers. The only source of unity among members of this curious group is power and access to privileges. When their search for this target is at cross-purposes, their personal battles are transformed into an issue of national importance. They make it seem as if what is at stake is Nigeria's future, whereas their problem is that of greed. We had seen the effect of this class failure before now, in the civil war, in the coups and counter-coups that characterised military rule, the fall of the First Second and Third Republics and in the annulment of June 12 - instances in which personality differences stood in the way of national goals and objectives. Ahead of the 2007 elections, history is about to repeat itself along these same lines.

The battle at the centre among key personalities: President Olusegun Obasanjo, Vice-President Abubakar Atiku, General Ibrahim Babangida, and other seen and unseen power-brokers, each one of them with supporters and followers at lower levels, could develop into a war for Nigeria's immediate future. I had argued that if these former conspirators cancel themselves out, Nigerians may gain knowledge about the conspiracy that previously held them together. But there is just that other signal: they could, in giving expression to their anger and differences, throw Nigeria into another long season of darkness.

The third warning signal is the general atmosphere of uncertainty in the land. Seven months to the elections, there is no indication that Nigeria is preparing for a major historical moment. The political parties are in a great state of confusion. Political aspirants are hedging their bets. INEC, which is supposed to be the umpire, continues to boast that it is ready to discharge its responsibilities. But as at last week, it was still struggling to lay its hands on the funds that had been duly appropriated for the 2007 elections. Its Chairman and members are so emotionally involved in the politics of personalities, in the politics of difference, their independence has been called to question for this reason, in addition to the fact that they are card-carrying members of the ruling political party.

The present INEC is thus grappling with a credibility crisis. Whatever happens in 2007, pundits would recall the partisanship of this electoral body and use that as basis for questioning the integrity of the elections. Such possibility is clearly foreseeable. There are Nigerians, and they are possibly in the majority, who do not even believe that the 2007 elections would take place. They are convinced that the elections may be postponed or that whenever they are conducted, the results will most certainly be contrived. For an electoral process to be credible, the people must have a sense of its ownership, they must be confident that it would be an expression of their collective aspirations. But Nigerians are in doubt. When they refer to the 2007 elections; they speak of it as if it were an abstraction or at best, a mere possibility, with all things being equal.

The fourth warning signal is the crisis in the Niger Delta. Would there be elections in the Niger Delta? The face-off between state authorities and the militants in the Niger Delta would most likely reach a boiling point in 2007. The militants have proven that they are prepared to take on the Nigerian state. They are not deterred by the military clampdown that has been ordered by the Presidency. They are in fact determined to remain defiant. The worst case scenario is that in 2007, the gang of kidnappers and rebels in the Niger Delta would frustrate the electoral process in the area. How they will do this is obvious enough! Electoral officers could be abducted and killed, or INEC would spend its time in the Niger Delta negotiating the release of hostages, instead of conducting elections. Should MASSOB whose leader is in prison custody, also decide to shut down the Eastern part of the country, would whatever results that may be announced be valid?

But by far, the biggest warning signal is the subsisting crisis of poverty in the land. Voter education is routinely recommended as a strategy for unlocking the resources of people's power, but as we move towards 2007, average Nigerians, those who vote on election day, are firmly in the grips of the monster of poverty. Faced with the tempting offer of money, and other incentives, they are likely to obey the prompting of their rumbling stomachs. For such Nigerians, an election season provides an opportunity for business transactions and pre-determined arrangements orchestrated by Godfathers with deep pockets. A compromised electorate creates for itself a moral and societal crisis. It is a dilemma that Nigerians are familiar with; they are bound to contend with it afresh as a reminder of the ineffectuality of the grand macro-economic permutations of the last few years, which would seem to have overlooked the challenge of social and human development, the level where progress or its absence is most felt by human populations.

The year 2007 will be Nigeria's rendezvous with history. It may well be the year when the country and its people will pay a price (the exact nature of which we may not yet know) for the failure of the past seven years. Our failure, that is, to use democracy as a platform for correcting the fault lines of Nigerian history, and the many lies that bind us together. But the same questions remain: what options are available to us as a people? Apathy? Cynicism? Revolt? Protest? Should we fold our arms, and watch helplessly as the train of history creeps upon us? Our biggest limitation is our "seeming helplessness."

Robot  # 1 | 25.08.2006 12:07

The warning signalsBy Reuben Abati EIGHT mo...Read the full article.

akuluouno  # 2 | 25.08.2006 12:55

Thanks for another wonderful article but the doomsday scenario has not yet got to the point of systemic breakdown prior to the civil war. Also any price that would be paid by Nigerians come 2007 predates 1999 since this rain started beating us prior to 99. For instance a memo prepared by the military for OBJ on how to resolve the Niger Delta impasse recommended the upping of their revenue from oil to 50%. This was not heeded just like other remedial measures proferred to rescue us from the fire that is to come. On the elections and the bickering among the elites, it will soon come and pass. None of them is brave enough to commit class suicide. In addition subterfuge and conspiracy are their main stock in trade. Ethnic and religious cards must be played while ideas and reason will be made illegal aliens at the end of the day. You know in the end, elders both traditional and religious (not Military oo) will intervene and we will all kiss and make up. The nation as a whole as I have always mentioned needs outright restructuring. For instance the 1999 constitution was later patently doctored and transformed into the personal will of Late Gen Sani Abacha. Tell me how such a contraption can lead Nigeria anywhere but to the abyss and Kalakuta Republic? Recently we did a celebratory military parade in Calabar to mark the donation of Bakassi to Cameroun while the Lebanese were allowed to protest in support of Hizbollah terrorist acts in Abuja and Kano. Try and protest over Bakassi in both cities and I bet you, your wife and kids will be fatherless by now. Does it not worry you that the same clique have been in power in Nigeria since independence till date. Abiola who tried to break the jinx was broken. There is no cause for alarm yet because the contradictions in the Nigerian polity have not yet played themselves out.

Auspicious  # 3 | 25.08.2006 13:05

"Because government remains the easiest and safest source of instant wealth, and public position, a ready source of relevance and enhanced status, Nigerian politicians are desperate for power." - R. Abati. True. How so unfortunate! Sigh.. Which way Nigeria (Which way?) Which way Nigeria (Which way?) I want to know (I want to know) I love my Fatherland Which way to go.. Which way Nigeria.. *Sunny Okosun in his 1984 song "Which way Nigeria?" Auspicious.

Alabi  # 4 | 25.08.2006 15:57

Oh please!! This was the same noise made prior to 1999 and 2003 by Abati and the other naysayers---making it look like there would be fire on the mountain in those election years. But what happened? The election years came and go! The same will happen in 2007. One really does not know what you guys gain by making a career out of the expectation of an all-consuming fire and brimstones over Nigeria.

pukpabi  # 5 | 25.08.2006 18:15

Oga Ruben, Why are you complaining. In your warped idea of a United, strong, and virile Nigeria, the Igbo do not matter because your hausa-Fulani masters have not forgiven them because of the war. Methinks Igbo people are the problem with Nigeria. Just look at the mess the Hausa-Fulani/Yoruba ruling class (rulers since the end of the war) have put Nigeria. Their policy of excluding Igbo ingenuity and enterprise from taking root and form has kept Nigeria backward, and Nigeria will remain so, unless they change their ways. And you too. Those who support evil for a pot of porridge forget that in the fullness of time, evil consumes even its own. Paschal Ukpabi, J.D. USA

Omovudu  # 6 | 25.08.2006 21:27

Mr Abati, Once again a beautiful write up. Indeed the 2007 elections, would be a watershed event for Nigeria. The signs emanating from its gestation period are grim and point in the negative direction unless something dramatic happens. The conspiracy of a warped and wooly elite group (if they are really elites) dangerously neck-tangled for the soul (albeit funds) of the nation seem to want to choke our nation into suffocation and crises. I however do not believe that we are as helpless as we make ourselves to be, for the only remedy to the current farce that is going on in the political circles is the strindent voice of a sacrificial reformer who can pull together the current feeble voices of the oppressed electorate. The current chaos amongst the political elites may just be the opportune season to thrust the knife into those evil strands (corruption, crude and belligrant godfathers, violence and intimidation etc) that hold them together in the "secret society" bonds so that "Things, for them, would Fall Apart and such that the nation may truly be liberated. And it is possible for a man to stand up such as the rising voice of the EFCC chairman and the bold steps he is currently taking (touching the sacred cows and kingmakers that were once thought untouchable). He needs the vocal support of the haranged progressive or civil society to encourage him in his sacrificial battle (even if he is not perfect in all he is doing). The press as moulders of public opinion should support his voice and vision and magnify the cause he pursues such that it takes on a momemtum of its own that can sweep away the virulent class of the political leaches who want to sap the nation dead. If our nation must endure, if we must survive the 2007 crossroad as a nation, it is incumbent on all of us to rise up and defend our threatened national life. We (civil society, activists and the media) must all rise up in unison to establish the boundaries for at least sane behaviour and action in the 2007 elections. Then we would have helped prop the currently starved and discomfited electorate from selling their birth rights again (as was done in 1999 that brought us to the present quagmire) so that the grim permutation that all the objective analyses of the current facts and trends in our national life points to does not end up becoming reality. I hope and pray that you and your colleagues (in the 4th estate of the realm) would play their part. Cheers.

Bjdon  # 7 | 27.08.2006 02:52

At every important junction in the Nations history be it 83, June 12, 99, or 2003 there have always been those ready to predict the worst, with the regular warnings of revolution, breakdown of law and order,blah,blah,blah. I think I can say with absolute confidence that all of this is pure RUBBISH. Nigeria has a lot of problems yes, but also has a lot going for it. A multi Billion dollar economy with significant international investments does not just 'breakdown'. For Gods sake when will people realize this is not East Timor? The worst that will happen in 2007 is that the elections for whatever reason will not be conclusive. If this happens the President will declare a state of emergecy and extend his rule. The Army will back him in the name of 'National intrest' and the politicians wil be falling over themseleves to get in on the action and not be left behind. Sorry Mr Abati but the sooner you accept that our country is controled by Western backed rulling class whose collective greed will not allow anything to happen to the 'Golden egg laying goose' then the sooner you'll accept that we'll not have the type of breakdown you predict Bj Benin City

Auspicious  # 8 | 27.08.2006 17:12

Oga Ruben, Why are you complaining. In your warped idea of a United, strong, and virile Nigeria, the Igbo do not matter because your hausa-Fulani masters have not forgiven them because of the war. Methinks Igbo people are the problem with Nigeria. Just look at the mess the Hausa-Fulani/Yoruba ruling class (rulers since the end of the war) have put Nigeria. Their policy of excluding Igbo ingenuity and enterprise from taking root and form has kept Nigeria backward, and Nigeria will remain so, unless they change their ways. And you too. Those who support evil for a pot of porridge forget that in the fullness of time, evil consumes even its own. Paschal Ukpabi, J.D. USA Oh Villagers, I have a question! Why, for the love of God, does Mr. Paschal Ukpabi find it difficult to make ANY little contribution on ANY topic whatsoever in Nigeria Village Square, without invoking the lot of the Ndigbo (which sound more like whinning these days) as if it is the Igbos alone who have been traumatized by the dearth of good leadership in the Land? I mean..the author didn't even make any mention of the Ndigbo this time..or did he? Auspicious.

emj  # 9 | 27.08.2006 21:27

The third warning signal is the general atmosphere of uncertainty in the land. Seven months to the elections, there is no indication that Nigeria is preparing for a major historical moment. The political parties are in a great state of confusion. Political aspirants are hedging their bets. INEC, which is supposed to be the umpire, continues to boast that it is ready to discharge its responsibilities. But as at last week, it was still struggling to lay its hands on the funds that had been duly appropriated for the 2007 elections. Its Chairman and members are so emotionally involved in the politics of personalities, in the politics of difference, their independence has been called to question for this reason, in addition to the fact that they are card-carrying members of the ruling political party. The present INEC is thus grappling with a credibility crisis. Whatever happens in 2007, pundits would recall the partisanship of this electoral body and use that as basis for questioning the integrity of the elections. Such possibility is clearly foreseeable. There are Nigerians, and they are possibly in the majority, who do not even believe that the 2007 elections would take place. They are convinced that the elections may be postponed or that whenever they are conducted, the results will most certainly be contrived. For an electoral process to be credible, the people must have a sense of its ownership, they must be confident that it would be an expression of their collective aspirations. But Nigerians are in doubt. When they refer to the 2007 elections; they speak of it as if it were an abstraction or at best, a mere possibility, with all things being equal. Another nice piece Reuben-----even as we all set out to play our part, may we get to the point that the confidence repose(if any) in INEC to conduct a free and fair election gets elevated to a positive level. INEC is the real head-ache. The probability of it conducting a free and fair election is almost nil. Right from the chairman to least person employed today are all partisan---kow-towing to the wishes of the party in power----hungry feople