By Reuben Abati

PRESIDENT Umaru Yar'Adua's government deserves commendation for responding eventually (three days after the fact) to the public outcry over the suspension of Channels TV's broadcast licence and the detention of NAN and Channels TV journalists over the publication of a story alleging that the President may resign. The licence has been restored; the detained journalists have been released. We are relieved. It would have been worse than tragic if government had ignored the public. All the parties involved would hopefully learn appropriate lessons from this experience. I have already dealt at some length with this elsewhere, but it may be necessary to further contextualise the sensitive nature of the subject of resignation as broached, the politics that has since developed around it in the context of the President's ill-health.

To state that President Yar'Adua's state of health has become one of the principal issues of his Presidency is to repeat the obvious, indeed, it is the unstated "eighth agenda" of the administration. Those who have been waving resignation as a possibility (it is still important to investigate and establish the original source of the resignation story which Channels TV, AFP and BBC reported), or a certain eventuality due to ill-health, have also been expressing the concern that any crisis of such nature in the Presidency involving the President could result in immediate political instability.

The undisguised excuse is that should President Yar'Adua relinquish his position for one reason or the other, the logical thing would be for Vice President Jonathan Goodluck to take over but that the North, that is the political North will not find this funny, it will consider it unacceptable. There is a lot of kite-flying in Nigerian politics. But when a dangerous kite shows up in the sky, it should be shot down. This insinuation that a South-South Vice President cannot succeed a Northern President is a dangerous kite which should not be allowed to fly, now or anytime in the future. A story along this line showed up in The Sun newspaper yesterday titled "Arewa Agenda: We want Yar'Adua's election annulled - Shettima. But North won't allow Jonathan as replacement".

This headline captures the substance of the power conspiracy that is developing as a sub-text to stories about the President's health. What constitutes this alleged Arewa agenda? It is the presupposition that President Yar'Adua is not merely serving out a mandate that has been given to him by the Nigerian people, but that he is serving the North's turn under a power rotation principle. Should he get tired of the position and opt to resign, should he leave the office under any of the circumstances identified in Section 143 - 146 of the 1999 Constitution, then the only guarantee of stability is to ensure that another Northerner assumes the position. Realising that this is unconstitutional, and that the Vice President is not a Northerner, the conspirators are said to be working on a strategy to see that in the awaited Supreme Court ruling on the Yar'Adua Presidential case, the 2007 Presidential election is annulled and a fresh election is called in which the North can present a candidate.

Other aspects of this sub-plot include protests that President Obasanjo had contrived against the North in choosing President Yar'Adua as his preferred candidate. In The Sun story earlier referred to Alhaji Yerima Shettima, President of the Arewa Youth Consultative Forum, confirms the existence of "a certain cabal" that may not allow Vice President Jonathan. He adds later: "It will be a very terrible situation because the north will not find it funny." Shettima however merely drops the hint, he does not carry the flag for this conspiracy. But it is precisely this kind of suggestion that is dangerous for our polity. The reference to a cabal in the interview should be taken seriously. We should not make the mistake of assuming that the so-called Arewa agenda represents the position of the North as a collective; rather it is the proposal of mischief-makers, a cabal as stated. The North has its own mix of political opportunists and progressives. In the same North where there have been persons issuing fatwa and ex-communication orders on 84-year old Alhaji Bello Massaba, the man with 86 wives, a man who is loved by his 86 wives (11 of them currently pregnant), we also have progressives who are mobilizing 86 lawyers to defend him in the court of law.

Having made this distinction for the benefit of those who may be tempted to see a non-existent North-South divide here, let us now address the proposal and the evil thoughts of the unknown cabal. To start with, it is worth pointing out that there is no section of the Nigerian Constitution which decrees the rotation of the Presidential office among the three major ethnic groups. The zoning of the Presidency to the North in 2007 was an internal PDP arrangement and in the circumstances, a pragmatic bid for power. It should be recalled that most of the candidates of the other political parties in that Presidential election were from other ethnic groups and in principle, they were equal contenders under the law.

To suggest that a Northern President or no one else is acceptable during this dispensation is to reinvent old antinomies about Northern domination and the marginalization of other Nigerians. The absurdic extension of this logic is that a Northerner must also compulsorily spend eight years in Aso Villa as President. Tying our democracy to ethnicity especially in the most powerful office in the land can only be problematic. If the three major ethnic groups insist on rotation and claim this to be the realistic thing to do, would they allow the remaining over 398 ethic groups in Nigeria to enjoy the same opportunity?

Secondly, the suggestion that the Supreme Court can be directed by a cabal to give a particular judgment is offensive. Is there nothing that Nigerians will not attempt to destroy? The courts have played a rather controversial role so far in the determination of election petition cases. In so far as the Electoral Act 2004 does not provide a specific time frame for the petitions to be heard, and despite Practice Directions from the Court of Appeal, the various tribunals and courts have been taking their time, the Appeal Court in particular has been dragging its feet, so much that in the end, the delay of the 2003 process which we had sought to prevent is now the reality that we are dealing with.

Questions have been raised about the integrity of the tribunals and the lower courts. But to drag the Supreme Court into the politics of election petitions at the Presidential level is scary; if the Supreme Court is compromised, then the vehicle of justice is fully derailed. Those who spread the view that the Supreme Court can be dictated to, do not mean well for our democracy. A dangerous view has now been established namely that if the Supreme Court were to decide to annul the Presidential election of 2007, the quick conclusion is that this is part of the so-called Arewa agenda as foretold.

For the architects of a hidden agenda, the end justifies the means. But this is criminal when it includes a plot to sabotage the Nigerian Constitution. Who is saying Jonathan Goodluck is not good enough to be President because he is Ijaw? As Vice President, he occupies a position that is a valid creation of the law. He is exercising a joint-mandate with the President. In the absence of the President, the law says he is the one to act as President. During the period of the President's recent absence, there were insinuations that although the Vice President presided over Council meetings, he was not in charge.

It is as if some Nigerians have concluded in their minds that certain categories of Nigerians are good enough only for the second position and not Number One. This is at the root of the crisis of nationhood that Nigeria has been grappling with since 1914. It is a mind-set that must be abandoned. The emphasis must be the rule of law. The Constitution is the country's basic law. It must be obeyed in letter and spirit. It can only be changed through a process of amendment, which is in itself a matter of law.

Sections 141 and 142 of the extant 1999 Constitution deal with the establishment of the office of Vice President. Although the Vice President is nominated by the President and swears to the same oath, he does not lose his position if the President resigns, dies, is impeached or is incapacitated. Section 145 (1) provides that whenever the President is on vacation or he is unable to discharge the functions of his office and he communicates same to the leadership of the National Assembly, his functions shall be discharged "by the Vice president as Acting President".

This idea that the Vice president can indeed act as President is further amplified in Section 146 (1) wherein it is stated inter alia that: "The Vice-President shall hold the office of president if the office of President becomes vacant by reason of death or resignation, impeachment, permanent incapacity or the removal of the President from office for any reason in accordance with section 143 or 144 of this Constitution." The Constitution does not state for how long the Vice president will discharge the functions of the President but since the two exercise a joint mandate, the literal import is that the Vice President within the contemplation of Section 145, will be President for the unexpired part of the operative tenure.

The Constitution is thus so clear, it beggars belief that anyone or a cabal will suggest that "the north will not find it funny". The conspirators don't need to find anything funny. People should just learn to respect the Constitution and the rule of law. When they fail to do so, they can only lend wings to the forces of reaction and instability.

Yerima Shettima as President of the Arewa Youth Consultative Forum probably knows what he is talking about. And there may be certain persons in the corridors of power who indeed consider Vice President Jonathan Goodluck, a mere figure-head for the simple reason that he does not come from any of the three major ethnic groups. But he comes from the Niger Delta, a part of the country that has now clearly forced the supremacist ethnic groups to take due notice of its strategic importance. And even if he were not from the Niger Delta, no Nigerian should be denied his or her rights under any circumstances whatsoever. An indigene/settler dichotomy should not be introduced into Presidential politics.

In private, President Yar'Adua must be deeply pained by the octopus-like scope of the conspiracy that has now suddenly developed around his alleged ill-health. He must be worried about the depth of man's capacity for mischief. There have been suggestions of clandestine meetings about the future of power and the Presidency. It is in the nature of men to construct plots of power and ambition. The good news is the assurance that President Yar'Adua can and is discharging the functions of his office and that he does not suffer from any permanent incapacitation. It is obvious that his continued survival during his tenure is important for the stability of the state. Our prayerful thoughts are with him.

Robot  Villager

# 1 Tying our democracy to ethnicity especially in the most powerful office in the land can only be problematic. If the three major ethnic groups insist on rotation and claim this to be the realistic th...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 21.09.2008 09:01

abdulmumin  Villager

# 2 I am surprised that you are making a fuss of this at this point in time. Where were you when the PDP were making a mockery of the constitution all these years under the canopy of their obnoxious zoning formula? When Salisu Buhari was removed as Speaker of the House, PDP did its magic and had Ghali Na'Abba installed as speaker. The constitution if I'm not wrong should have had the deputy installed but the PDP zoning formula triumphed. The same occured when the late Evan Enwerem, Chuba Okadigbo and Adolphus Wabara were removed from the presidency of the senate. Where was the constitution all this while? Lets stop attacking the symptons instead of the disease. The foundation of the house is wrong and till this is addressed, we shall keep running round in circles. Posted by abdulmumin| 21.09.2008 12:30

K_Station  Villager

# 3 =abdulmumin;270900>The constitution if I'm not wrong should have had the deputy installed but the PDP zoning formula triumphed. With due respect Abdulmumin, I think you grossly missed the thrust of RA's argument in this excellent piece. RA's argument from a constitutional perspective while not supportive of the rotational arrangement (which by the way is not constitutional), is that if for any reason the office of the President becomes vacant, then the constitution dictates that the Vice President is next in line to take over the position & duties of President, no matter what part of the country he/she comes from - presumably until the President is able to return to his duties or until the next election. The clique/cabal RA referred to are currently scheming to not allow that constitutional arrangement to happen (in case the President becomes incapacitated, God forbid), just because it is the North's turn (a phenomenon not recognized by the constitution)! Your argument for precedence in the Senate and House of Rep. is not valid because the constitution dictates that those positions be filled as dictated by the House & Senate rules. You cannot simply hold another general election just because a sitting President dies or was removed from office. We all agree that the PDP zoning formula is unconstitutional; whether it is right or wrong is debatable because of our complex ethnic divisions (for the record, I am against the zoning formula & the so-called rotational arrangements). Excellent piece I think! Posted by K_Station| 21.09.2008 16:45

dem  Villager

# 4 Realising that this is unconstitutional, and that the Vice President is not a Northerner, the conspirators are said to be working on a strategy to see that in the awaited Supreme Court ruling on the Yar'Adua Presidential case, the 2007 Presidential election is annulled and a fresh election is called in which the North can present a candidate. What if the above happens and YD decides to re-contest? More interestingly; is it possible that OBJ actually factored-in all of this?! Could he have wittingly scripted both YD and Jonathan (South-South) for 1 or 2 terms as Presidents? Subsequent to which the “political North” then comes-in for 8 years? Ohh, I’m thinking too much. I think I need a holiday……… Posted by dem| 23.09.2008 10:25

abdulmumin  Villager

# 5 =K_Station;270961>With due respect Abdulmumin, I think you grossly missed the thrust of RA's argument in this excellent piece. RA's argument from a constitutional perspective while not supportive of the rotational arrangement (which by the way is not constitutional), is that if for any reason the office of the President becomes vacant, then the constitution dictates that the Vice President is next in line to take over the position & duties of President, no matter what part of the country he/she comes from - presumably until the President is able to return to his duties or until the next election. The clique/cabal RA referred to are currently scheming to not allow that constitutional arrangement to happen (in case the President becomes incapacitated, God forbid), just because it is the North's turn (a phenomenon not recognized by the constitution)! Your argument for precedence in the Senate and House of Rep. is not valid because the constitution dictates that those positions be filled as dictated by the House & Senate rules. You cannot simply hold another general election just because a sitting President dies or was removed from office. We all agree that the PDP zoning formula is unconstitutional; whether it is right or wrong is debatable because of our complex ethnic divisions (for the record, I am against the zoning formula & the so-called rotational arrangements). Excellent piece I think! K_Station, I was not using the precedents in the Senate and the House of Reps as a basis to justify the chicanery being supposedly plotted by our Arewa folks. I was only stressing that it is our silence in times past when such breeches of the constitution have occured that has given room for anyone to even conceive of such a plot. In a country where the SGBN banking licence was recently restored by a court judgment after being shut down for 4 years on account that a certain Saraki family has vested interests, anything is possible. I have no doubts that this plot is real and if what transpired last year could be passed off as an election, selling this is a no brainer. Posted by abdulmumin| 23.09.2008 10:25

Agidimolaja  Villager

# 6 Who is not tired of the North? Who is not sick and tired of Arewa and its unprogressive several hidden agendas? There we go again! We saw it first in 1966. Brig. Ogundipe was prevented by the Noth from taking over power after they{the North} murdered Gen. Ironsi. We saw it again in broad daylight in 1993. MKO Abiola was prevented from taking over power by the same ugly North after he won the Presidential election.It was this same barbaric North that eventually murdered Abiola. After Abiola's incident we thought that we shall never hear about or see such abomination again in this country,but there we go again. The kite of another Arewa evil agenda just surfaced in our ever cloudy political sky and who would not scream at it? That Arewa's cabal would not allow the VP to take over power in case of any eventuality sounds like a tale told by an ..... Arewa should know better that there would be massive resistance if they attempted to play the same dirty game for the third time. Posted by Agidimolaja| 24.09.2008 00:05