The struggle for the post of the President of Nigeria by 2007, now effectively vacant, has begun with the North and the South South as front-runners both in terms of their insistence and the articulation of their preferences in the public domain. The South West is automatically out of the race having spent the last seven years in office (?). Some other geo-political zones, particularly the Middle Belt, are not as enthusiastic. The South East makes some occasional noise about its interest in the Presidency, but Ndigbo is disunited, and this is its biggest problem, its leaders sound ambivalent, those who have expressed interest in the Presidency from that zone have too many internal enemies who are determined to stop any other Igbo man from rising.

Beyond this internal division, the North has never hidden the fact that it is opposed to the idea of an Igbo Presidency; it is an option that the North never considers. Other ethnic groups have also never really forgiven Igbos for the civil war. But whenever it is eventually the turn of Igbos to be President, Nigeria would have become a far more politically enlightened country; the ghosts of the past would necessarily have been laid to rest. But that is a subject for another day, lest some ethnic wrestlers misinterpret my true position in the matter.

What is indicated in the present circumstance, however, are the same old issues about power rotation, power shift, and the need to run this country in a manner that every stakeholder will feel a sense of belonging. It is now incontestable that one possible way to ensure national unity in this country is to allow power to rotate among the various stakeholders, including the smallest groups. Ethnicity is an eternal albatross that Nigeria must carry like the load of Sisyphus. Section 55 of the 1999 Constitution which recognises only three major ethnic groups: Yoruba, Ibo and Hausa, makes other Nigerians look like passengers in the Nigerian arrangement.

In the past decades, the marginalised, minority groups, owing to the spread of Western education among them and their awareness of international human rights, have very radical in responding to all images of internal colonialism. They are opposed to internal colonialism, especially the type that is endorsed by Section 55 of the Constitution and which is given full effect in governmental operations. They want this displaced in order for us all, as individuals and citizens to have a proper country, and build a nation. The minorities began their struggle long before now, and that is the import of the Willinks Commission and successive protests by that region (Adaka Boro, MOSOP and Ken Saro Wiwa, Niger Delta Volunteer Peoples Force, MEND etc) , but it seems certain that the future of Nigeria is tied to the resolution of the anxieties of the minorities. When one minority in a particular geo-political zone is offered a sense of belonging, other minorities, who indeed collectively represent the majority in Nigeria, would have been granted a sense of possibility. Human beings are driven by a sense of possibility. They are driven to desperation by a sense of denial and closure.

Am I speaking in parables? No, and I guess the thing to do is to immediately contextualise the present struggle for power. The North wants power desperately. It is already fighting as if its life depends on it. Power is the oxygen that keeps the North alive. For 35 years, the North held on to power at the centre, and ruled Nigeria as if it belonged to one particular group. That is the Fulani, for it would be wrong to assume that power in the hands of the North we knew meant the Hausa (who are not even accepted as an ethnic group by the Fulani) or any of the other marginalised groups in the North who must be subservient to the Fulani to gain any form of attention. The Fulani are in more than twelve countries in Africa as a nomadic group and wherever they are either as majorities or minorities, their acute interest in power is a permanent aspect of the power equation. In more than seven years in power in Nigeria, they have been shut out of the corridors of power, and access to the control of Nigeria's economic resources.

Obasanjo who suffered immensely in the hands of his Fulani successors in power has not been very kind to the general Fulani group since he came to power in 1999. One of them jailed and humiliated him. Obasanjo has also further displaced the Fulani hegemony. He destroyed the LPO system which sustained that hegemony; he offered positions to children of the North but he refused to put them in charge of the economy. The economy, he handed over to Ndigbo, thus creating an ironic balance. The North's bid for power in 2007 is in part a response to this withdrawal factor; this marginalisation of the North by the Obasanjo government.

To worsen matters, he who used to be their man and candidate has refused to be manipulated by them. He has for the most part ran his own show in the last seven years, the defects of that show are singularly traceable to his own limitations, already well-defined elsewhere. In addition, the average Nigerian continues to nurse a deep-seated grudge against the North and its principal icons. Thirty-five years of Northern domination of political power brought few advantages to the North, if anything, it further divided the North. Is there any guarantee that the return of power to the North would create a different situation? This is the basic issue that the Northern elite must worry about even as they search for a candidate that would represent the interests of a non-existent monolithic North.

But where do we stand in relation to this as Nigerians, as ordinary Nigerians who are not looking for power on an ethnic basis but who are just interested in being citizens of a country that works? It is not difficult to know what ordinary Nigerians want. They want a country that is properly managed. They want a country where the human being can feel a sense of humanity. They want leaders who are motivated by a sense of the common good and an interest in history. They want a united country where a Yoruba man can woo a pretty Ijaw woman and not feel that he is doing something strange. They want to live like the people of London and New York where even the poorest of the poor do not have to worry about those details that give ordinary Nigerians the greatest anxiety. They want to live like human beings, and this includes those rude Nigerians who abuse others on the internet with their terrible, ill-mannered prose. Ordinarily, it should not matter where a leader comes from as long as he is a leader, but nations are not the same and societies must manage their own circumstances.

By far, the South South seems to have prepared a more reasoned claim to the Presidency through both advocacy and militancy. The latter method represented by the likes of MEND and its band of hijackers and the Asari Dokubo group on the other end of the scale may have attracted much criticism but no one can claim not to know what the South South wants. This remains clear even if some of the elites from that region nearly diluted that message with their open, may be insincere declaration of support for the Third Term agenda. They have however since recovered their voice, heard loudest during the National Conference and almost simultaneously through such groups as the South South Peoples Assembly, with their articulation of the compulsory need for a South South President in 2007. The South South probably has the largest collection of advocacy groups seeking justice and equity for the people of that region and the power question is right at the centre of that agitation. Nigeria's refusal to listen to the complaints of the South South and by extension the cries of the minorities is largely responsible for the instability in the country. There is no other place like the Niger Delta in the world. At the moment, the South South's search for power at the centre can be linked to ethnic power politics, and it actually looks like a credible entry point into resolving the national question. But perhaps not exactly as the South South elite is currently phrasing it.

It seems to me that the South South search for power is predicated on the woolly assumption that once a man from that region becomes President, the fears of the people of the Niger Delta and their neighbours would be addressed automatically. Our experience with political power in Nigeria has shown that ethnic anxieties are not necessarily addressed by the kinsman in power. It is possible to have a South South man in power and he could prove to be an enemy of South South interests and a good promoter of his own selfish ambitions. It is true that if the South South were to win the Presidency in 2007, it would be a great revolutionary development indeed.

But the South South must never be under the illusion that the North would willingly grant it that opportunity simply because there is violence in the Niger Delta. South South leaders must take their search for power beyond the level of rhetoric. They must organise, organise and organise. They must also reach out to other Nigerian constituencies, groups and stakeholders. A minority South South President will be kept in power not by MEND and the Asari Dokubo group or Egbesu boys but the consensus of other stakeholders. Such insular and regional methods adopted by the ethnic militants in the South South can only in the long run prove to be politically counter-productive.

The other challenge before the South South is to identify the right and proper candidate, and build a consensus around that candidate. The SSPA after its last meeting in Port Harcourt had said that its plan is to appeal to every political party to choose a South South Presidential candidate. That kind of wild goose chase makes no sense to me. To gain power the South South must operate as a united front if it is serious about its ambitions. But having won power, it would then face the bigger task of ensuring that the man who gets to power on the South South platform will be not just a nationalist, but a nationalist with "a local base".

For sure, a South South Presidency will be resisted by the North which claims a superiority of numbers, and has shown a tested capacity for power politics. Strategists of the South South Presidency must begin to worry about how to sell their candidate(s) to the average man in the North who may have been tutored to believe that the presence of a South South President in Abuja could mean a reversal of all inherited advantages. Can the South South find a bridge-builder, someone with the political savvy and maturity to navigate Nigeria's troubled waters, a man or woman that can be trusted with Nigeria? If such candidates exist, the South South must move beyond media posturing and sentiments and name such persons without any further delay...

Robot  # 1 | 26.05.2006 09:18

Can the South South find a bridge-builder, someone with the political savvy and maturity to navigate...Read the full article.

otito  # 2 | 26.05.2006 10:16

Mr Abati wrote: “It is possible to have a South South man in power and he could prove to be an enemy of South South interests and a good promoter of his own selfish ambitions. It is true that if the South South were to win the Presidency in 2007, it would be a great revolutionary development indeed.” “To gain power the South South must operate as a united front if it is serious about its ambitions. But having won power, it would then face the bigger task of ensuring that the man who gets to power on the South South platform will be not just a nationalist, but a nationalist with "a local base". “Am I speaking in parables? No, and I guess the thing to do is to immediately contextualise the present struggle for power. The North wants power desperately. It is already fighting as if its life depends on it. Power is the oxygen that keeps the North alive. For 35 years, the North held on to power at the centre, and ruled Nigeria as if it belonged to one particular group. That is the Fulani, for it would be wrong to assume that power in the hands of the North we knew meant the Hausa (who are not even accepted as an ethnic group by the Fulani) or any of the other marginalised groups in the North who must be subservient to the Fulani to gain any form of attention. The Fulani are in more than twelve countries in Africa as a nomadic group and wherever they are either as majorities or minorities, their acute interest in power is a permanent aspect of the power equation. In more than seven years in power in Nigeria, they have been shut out of the corridors of power, and access to the control of Nigeria's economic resources.” “Obasanjo who suffered immensely in the hands of his Fulani successors in power has not been very kind to the general Fulani group since he came to power in 1999. One of them jailed and humiliated him. Obasanjo has also further displaced the Fulani hegemony. He destroyed the LPO system which sustained that hegemony; he offered positions to children of the North but he refused to put them in charge of the economy. The economy, he handed over to Ndigbo, thus creating an ironic balance. The North's bid for power in 2007 is in part a response to this withdrawal factor; this marginalisation of the North by the Obasanjo government.” ==================================== Kudos, president OBJ, posterity will give him a pass mark on this, but the most important- I mean most important thing now is that power does not go back to the North, no matter how much threats they result to (as they have stated to do yesterday) because as it has been said, “ if the South -South were to win the Presidency in 2007, it would be a great revolutionary development indeed.” But with a leader who is ready to lay down his life (if need arises) to move the nation forward. We cannot afford to take 8 years forward (all be it with the question marks) then after 8X50 years backwards (that is if we survive it). For we have seen the devastating effect of the 35 years they have been in power (in real terms 35X50). I PRAY THAT THE PRESIDENT WILL REALISE DEEP DOWN IN HIS SOUL THAT, FOR NOW ALL THAT IS IMPORTANT IS HOW HE WILL BE REMEMBERED.

I Love Nigeria  # 3 | 26.05.2006 11:06

Dr. Abati, you have once again articulated our national challenges...as you so often do. Your meticulous analyses and somber presentments are very tastefully done. You encapsulated the feelings of all Nigerians, at home or abroad, when you wrote the following paragraph: But where do we stand in relation to this as Nigerians, as ordinary Nigerians who are not looking for power on an ethnic basis but who are just interested in being citizens of a country that works? It is not difficult to know what ordinary Nigerians want. They want a country that is properly managed. They want a country where the human being can feel a sense of humanity. They want leaders who are motivated by a sense of the common good and an interest in history. They want a united country where a Yoruba man can woo a pretty Ijaw woman and not feel that he is doing something strange. They want to live like the people of London and New York where even the poorest of the poor do not have to worry about those details that give ordinary Nigerians the greatest anxiety. They want to live like human beings, and this includes those rude Nigerians who abuse others on the internet with their terrible, ill-mannered prose. Ordinarily, it should not matter where a leader comes from as long as he is a leader, but nations are not the same and societies must manage their own circumstances.

denker  # 4 | 26.05.2006 11:42

mr. abati, sorry sir,...this's total hogwash and without substance. you haven't offered any solution....that's always problem with nigerians, ranting and running in circle without hitting the target...do you understand that..!- not hitting the TARGET! the target: Conferderation or True Federalism..believe it or not...that's only solution..! All the scenarios are moving and pointing dangerously to Nigeria's DISINTEGRTATION...!

gwobezentashi  # 5 | 26.05.2006 12:33

With respect Abati has missed a trick here. We know that the South South is quite strong in propaganda resources, what with Guardian, This Day, Independent and AIT ownership but even in propaganda, facts are sacred. Gowon, Babangida, Abacha and Abdulsalaam are not Fulanis and they collectively ruled for probably more than 25 years along with their Southern collaborators whom Abati cleverly omits to refer to. So where does Abati get his theory of Fulani domination from other than mythism? It is one thing to engage in objective journalistic enquiry or commentary but Abati's remarks about the North smack of of voyeurism and propaganda. He does his cause of promoting an as yet unnamed South South candidate a world of damage by embarking on this tirade of revisionism and selective amnesia. Having roundly castigated Northerners as rent seekers and indolent, he then proceeds to speak of Nigeria as if the North he just described were not a part of it. Hear him: But where do we stand in relation to this as Nigerians, as ordinary Nigerians who are not looking for power on an ethnic basis but who are just interested in being citizens of a country that works? It is not difficult to know what ordinary Nigerians want. They want a country that is properly managed. So how does this square with the Nigerians in the North whom Abati described as only interested in power for "the LPO system which sustained that hegemony" and presumably would want to be "put in charge of the economy". Or are they not part of Abati's "ordinary Nigerians" who want to be a part of "a country that works"? The economy, he handed over to Ndigbo, thus creating an ironic balance. The North's bid for power in 2007 is in part a response to this withdrawal factor. The last time I checked Ciroma was Finance Minister and Lukman was defacto Petroleum Minister in Obasanjo's first term. The major plank of economic policy was/is the privatisation programme and that was managed by El Rufai. So what planet exactly is Abati on? Has Aliko Dangote and other Northern tycoons not made more money under Obasanjo than at any other time? Is it not instructive that when Abati talks about the North, he refers to a North rather than its three zones but when he refers to the South, he remembers its three zones? Then he adds for good measure "...a candidate that would represent the interests of a non-existent monolithic North". Well, who talked as if there was a monolithic North if not Abati? This is simply Abati on an undisguised North bashing agenda which will not wash. The truth is that the North collectively remains a formidable political entity in Nigeria whether you bash it or you don't and if you wish to have political power in Nigeria, you must woo it not cower or insult it. Obasanjo has found out to his bitter suprise that without the political support of the North that got him into power, he remains at best lame. Now that is a lesson for any aspirant to ponder and Orji Kalu has proved a smart cookie at that. Finally, Abati now chooses to insult his audience on the NVS having ignored repeated requests to courtesy and respond to comments posted against his articles here by saying: ".... and this includes those rude Nigerians who abuse others on the internet with their terrible, ill-mannered prose." I wonder who they are. At least we now know what he thinks of us yet he keeps putting his articles up here. Thanks a bunch for the insult Rueben Abati. I feel a boycott coming on. This is not one of Abati's better articles and surely deserves to be consigned to the dust bin of history. Better luck next time guy. Ewu ill mannered prose. Aluta! Gwobezentashi

Abraxas  # 6 | 26.05.2006 12:59

Hi, folks! To me, the question is not WHO should be the president of Nigeria, but HOW do Nigerians run their country? Seriously speaking, for a federation as heterogeneous and large as Nigeria, the presidency should be made unattractive deliberately: more or less, a ceremonial presidency that is rotated at a relatively high frequency: i.e. six (6) month single term in rotation among six (6) geopolitical zones. In other words, ultimately, in a duly fine-tuned and optimized Nigerian federation, the presidency should rotate in single 6-monthly terms between the states, within the geopolitical zones. In such a setting, the states would become the focal points for the acquisition and exercise of political power, not Abuja! In short, with major reforms and refinements to Nigeria’s federal systems, partisan politics would subsequently devolve from the Abuja level, as it is now, to the State level, thereby completely reconfiguring the political landscape: e.g. a state party executive would be more politically powerful than, and more independent of the Chairman of his party’s Board of Trustees at Abuja, in direct contrast to the prevailing status quo! That is true federalism, my friends. Many thanks. Ése es federalismo verdadero, mis amigos. Muchas gracias.

OmoNigeria  # 7 | 26.05.2006 13:00

I do not think this kind of article is necessary because it was Reuben Abati and his likes who told us about 150 million Nigerians being capable of becoming President. Let South South and North North pick out of the 150 million capable Nigerians. I think bigotry under any name/article is not what Nigeria needs at the moment.

DALLASITE  # 8 | 26.05.2006 13:16

Gwobe wrote: __________________________________________________________________________ Obasanjo has found out to his bitter suprise that without the political support of the North that got him into power, he remains at best lame. Now that is a lesson for any aspirant to ponder and Orji Kalu has proved a smart cookie at that. __________________________________________________________________________ The North's arrogancy stem from their supposedly majority population which has been documented as fraudulent perpetrated by the British....(see http://www.libertas.demon.co.uk/). Maybe the recent population census will correct this fraud and we all would be able to negotiate without some group thinking they hold the rest of Nigeria to ransom. As for Orji, let see if the North will give him the presidency.

I Love Nigeria  # 9 | 26.05.2006 16:04

Arrogance may cost North presidency—MAKARFI By Emeka Mamah & Emmanuel Aziken Friday, May 26, 2006 *I respect South-South leaders, says Kure —Page 9 advertisement KADUNA— GOVERNOR Ahmed Makarfi of Kaduna State warned, yesterday, that the North stood the risk of not producing Nigeria’s next president if it took other sections of the country for granted. Governor Makarfi speaking at the inaugural conference of Northern Traditional Rulers in Kaduna said: “As we seek the presidency of our country, I wish to advise that the North cannot afford to want to go it alone. We must avoid a situation in which we isolate ourselves and operate as lone rangers. We should go about it with decorum and due regards for the interests, feelings and aspirations of other parts of the country with whom we are all stakeholders in the Nigerian project.” Akume carpets North Governor George Akume of Benue State who also spoke on the occasion lamented that the North had lost out in all fronts in the on-going privatisation in the country. Akume stressed that the North could not mobilise the kind of funds required to buy stakes in the public institutions that have been privatised. “We lost because the South has dominated the finance sector, including banking and insurance, which provide funds for these acquisitions. Today, the Bank of the North, which was the sole financial backbone of the North, has been taken over as is the case with others like Lion Bank, Inland bank, etc. “The telecommunication revolution, particularly the GSM component, that has recently taken our country by storm, has blown past the North as we are left to be mere onlookers. Investments in the telecommunication business along with the information technology sub-sector are almost wholly in the hands of Southern entrepreneurs. “Given the importance of the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in modern world, our lack of involvement in the business in Nigeria portends grave danger for the future development of the North,” he said. The governor, however, stressed that the North had become its own worst enemy because of discrimination among the elite which has brought disunity in the area. “If the elite in the North in politics, business and other areas of endeavour, reach out to one another in cooperation and understanding, we may begin to make headway in our quest to reposition the North. “In this regard, therefore, pressure organisations such as the Arewa Consultative Forum, the Middle Belt Forum and the Northern Unity Forum must begin to talk among themselves and build upon their areas of common interest,” Chief Akume said. Governor Makarfi in his speech said the North seemed not to have gone beyond the rhetorics in its approach to the issue of unity and progress of the North. He said the North needed to come up with a common and practicable approach to turn around its educational system with a view to making it more functional and result oriented, adding: “As we approach a crucial political and election year, we here in the north should join well-meaning compatriots from other parts of the country to ensure that consolidation of the gains that our democratic dispensation has recorded in the past seven years with a view to making our country take its proper place in the comity of civilised nations. Power shift, not negotiable, says Saraki The Olusola Saraki led-Northern Union (NU) declared yesterday that the issue power shift to the North in 2007 was non-negotiable. The NU chairman, Dr Olusola Saraki, made the declaration after the Union’s meeting yesterday in Abuja. The issue of power shift, Saraki said, was decided in 1994, when the defunct Constitutional Conference recommended power rotation between the North and South. “We believe that we are men of honour. We decided in 1994/95 under Abacha that power should shift between the North and the South and now it is the turn of the North. We are not against anybody. What we are just saying is that let peace reign in the country and let power shift back to the North," he said. The meeting, which was attended by prominent northerners, Saraki said, was convened to strategise on plans to be adopted for the union to achieve its agenda. Speaking in the same vein, the Vice-Chairman of the NU, Prof. Ango Abdullahi, said that the Union was poised to achieve the power shift through constructive engagements of the other zones. Although the union has not pencilled particular candidate for the 2007 presidency, Abdullahi said assured that a level playing ground would be provided for all aspirants. He dismissed the speculation that President Olusegun Obasanjo would ensure the emergence of a president from the South-South zone. “If he cannot succeed with the third term agenda in which he will be the main beneficiary, how can he stop a northerner from becoming a president in 2007?’’ he queried. South-South Senators reply Gov Kure Meanwhile, the South-South Senate caucus yesterday formally responded to the contentious remark by Niger State, Governor Abdulkadir Kure, affirming that his inability to make a whole retraction of the published remarks smacked of unnecessary bigotry. The caucus at a briefing in Abuja, nevertheless, affirmed that the utterance by Governor Kure would not in any way affect future political relationships between the South-South and the North-Central zone. Senator Udoma Udo Udoma, the South-South caucus leader who read the prepared speech at the briefing said Governor Kure’s views were those of an individual which could not be said to be reflective of the whole zone. Twelve of the18 Senators from the zone were present at the press briefing where they claimed that even the clarification by Kure that he singled out Governor Peter Odili of Rivers State as an ineligible presidential material was not enough. Governor Kure had in an interview with a national newspaper (not Vanguard) been quoted as saying that the South-South lacked a credible candidate for the 2007 presidential elections, dismissing Governor Peter Odili, one of the zone’s putative aspirants of lacking the political reach and performance to vie for the presidency. The South-South Senators said: “We wish to state that we the Senators from the South-South are very disturbed by such provocative statements coming from somebody of the status of a governor. We reject the statements in its entirety. “Over the years, the South-South has complained of the great injustice where we produce a good percentage of the wealth of this country, as well as some of the best materials in this country in all walks of, but have been consistently denied the opportunity to produce the president of this country. To add more insult to injury, we are now being told that this great injustice is because we are not good enough. “Even here in the Senate, the South-South has at least 18 Senators who can compete with the best and the brightest in the country, and yet we are told we have no presidential material. The South-South also has many capable and experienced governors, members of the House of Representatives, captains of industry, retired generals, retired top civil servants, experienced technocrats etc. But somebody insults us by saying we are not good enough. This nonsense must stop. “We want to declare today as a group that the South-South deserves the presidency of this country in 2007 and that we shall work individually and collectively to achieve that objective,” the South South Senators said.

Mark Lar  # 10 | 26.05.2006 16:20

=gwobezentashi> The truth is that the North collectively remains a formidable political entity in Nigeria whether you bash it or you don't and if you wish to have political power in Nigeria, you must woo it not cower or insult it. Gwobezentashi The above dropping by Gwobeburantashi brought a wry smile to my gub. The fact is that our recent history has laid the foundation that the Fulanis (and their bag-carriers, the Hausas) have lost the Middlebelt forever. No Middlebelter would be enthusiastic about continuing to line up in front of a gworo munching Alhaji’s house for some handouts. What is left to be seen is whether the Hausas, most of whom currently pretend to be Fulanis, will see the clue and learn that they have been taken for a ride for much too long by the Fulanis. The decision of the Fulanis to partake in the Hausa language while reserving their own Pulaar and Fulfulde languages for just their 'sons of the soil' totally deceived the Hausas.

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