20 Apr 2007 |
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Notes on Nigeria's Elections (2)
ONLY the President, INEC commissioners and a few persons in high places, and an even smaller group in society are convinced that Nigeria's elections 2007 are free and fair and commendable. They believe that nothing really terrible went wrong with the elections that were held on Saturday April 14, and that it is normal for Nigerians to complain any way, no matter how well-organised an election may be or how many times it is held. Their contention is suspicious. Their optimism is illusory. How would they explain the post-election violence in many states of the federation, the corpses that have been gathered as the harvest of the war on the streets; the houses that have been burnt? Or the gradual, ominous drift towards anarchy, the disquiet among the people, and the loss of confidence in the electoral process? The truth is that what happened in the name of Gubernatorial and Houses of Assembly elections on April 14, was a charade, " the worst election ever held in Nigerian history" says the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU). Nigerians are very good at papering over the cracks in their lives. We are good at postponing the evil day. But the disturbing aftermath, and the reviews of the event of April 14, both locally and internationally, and the spread of protest and violence across the land, are instructive. In the past week, Nigerians ought to have learnt a number of lessons. One, that the politicians have not changed their bad habits. If they remember history, they have chosen to ignore its lessons. Two, that Nigerians love their country, and they are passionate about democracy. And because they love their country, most of them are willing to accept whatever is thrown at them. Unfortunately, their leaders do not share the same passion; they are interested in electoral war as a means of self-preservation. Three, Nigeria is not alone, the rest of the world is keenly interested in what goes on here, even if occasionally in a patronizing manner, but in the 2007 elections international interest in Nigeria's fortunes has been most frontal and intense. And the international community is disappointed. But do our politicians care? I doubt. In the full view of foreign observers, they snatched ballot boxes, rigged elections and unleashed mayhem. International observers have had a chance to observe not just the status of our democracy, but also the complex character of the Nigerian society. Four, it must be clear also to everyone by now, that Nigerian democracy is putative, underdeveloped; last Saturday, soldiers had to be sent to the streets to hold the peace, but even with such gun-barrel democracy, there were problems. In desperation, the Inspector-General of Police has now ordered his men to shoot hoodlums on sight. The danger is that innocent men and women will get hurt. All the problems with the 2007 elections were foreseeable, and there were more than enough warning signals. What stood in the way of the people's aspirations was the incompetence and the partisanship of the National Electoral Commission. INEC is still insisting days after the crime it committed, and for which it is held guilty as charged, that it has done a good job. Nigerians should start calling for a probe of INEC and its leadership! When on Monday, April 16, the Supreme Court of Nigeria ruled in the Atiku vs INEC case that the Electoral Commission had no powers to disqualify candidates for the election, the apex court asserted its independence against the mischief of the Executive, this inspired much confidence among the people. It lent weight to Atiku, and declared him the winner of his argument with the President. With that ruling Vice President Atiku is back on the ballot paper. But the truth is that the election has already been rigged against him. Beyond this, the Supreme Court drove a nail into INEC's coffin and confirmed the widespread belief that it is a biased umpire. The Supreme Court ruling has also given a lifeline to all the political aspirants who were unlawfully excluded from the April 14 elections by an Electoral Commission exercising powers that it did not have. Such aspirants can now insist that the April 14 elections cannot stand because INEC did not provide a level playing field for all contestants. It has been suggested that aggrieved persons could take their cases to the election tribunals and seek redress. The danger here is that Nigerians may spend the next four years in the law courts, dealing with instability on an unexpected scale. There is even no guarantee that the election petition tribunals will deliver the justice that the people seek. Former Governor Chris Ngige in Anambra lost his seat because he had fallen out of favour with the ruling party and his own Godfathers. In Nigeria, being a complainant after the fact of an election is not always a safe place to be. The opposition parties have been holding meetings under the umbrella of a body called the Coalition of Opposition Presidential Candidates (COPC), at the prompting of General Muhammadu Buhari, Presidential candidate of the All Nigeria Peoples' Party. The opposition has asked for a cancellation of the elections of April 14 and a postponement of the elections until such a time when a level playing field can be created to ensure a free and fair process. There have been threats of boycott should the government reject this proposal. Both the Federal Government and INEC have rejected the proposal, with the arrogant declaration that whoever is aggrieved should go to the election petition tribunals. INEC which had just been declared a law-breaker by the Supreme Court, has also been quoting the law to show that the elections must hold unfailingly. The meeting of the opposition parties leaders is a good development. They have managed to speak in unison about their dissatisfaction with the conduct of the elections and in particular the role of INEC. They have more or less passed a vote of no confidence in the Obasanjo government. But they cannot do more than that. The opposition in Nigeria can hardly act more decisively than this because of the ego and the ambition of its individual members. This is why the opposition cannot boycott the elections tomorrow. They would rather lose to the PDP Presidential candidate and then go to the courts later. The key point that has been established, however, is that they do not trust the Electoral Commission as it is to organise any free election. And it is sad that since April 14, there is nothing that INEC has done to show that it is trying to make amends for its failures. Instead, INEC has been busy arguing with the public. No one should be surprised therefore if polling materials still arrive late tomorrow, and if voting does not take part in many parts of the country or if names are missing or wrongly stated on the ballot paper. Both local and international observers have questioned the sincerity of the Obasanjo government. I have argued before now, that democracy in Nigeria is sustained on the wheels of blackmail. The people are forever being asked by their leaders to accept whatever happens in order not to derail democracy. But the same leaders are not willing on their part to make any sacrifice. In 1999, we accepted electoral irregularities and malpractice on the ground that half-democracy was better than no democracy at all. In 2003, we were all asked to give democracy a chance before asking for dividends. In 2007, we are now being told that the elections must proceed as planned, flawed as the process may be, in order to stay within the provisions of the Constitution and avoid a Constitutional crisis. And so tomorrow we go to the polls again, at the mercy of INEC and Maurice Iwu, for the Presidential and National Assembly elections. A number of things are likely to happen. In the states where violence has been recorded in the past week, there could be more killings and the safety of INEC officials could become an issue. Those who watched on April 14 as some thugs made away with ballot boxes may choose this week to take the law into their own hands too. A second possibility is that many voters may stay away from the polling stations. Why risk possible death? And besides, why vote in an election in which the results are more or less pre-determined? The environment of the 2007 electoral process has automatically disenfranchised the people. Bishop Emmanuel Gbonigi, Chairman of Yoruba Parapo has issued a statement "calling for a total boycott of next Saturday's elections". And a third possibility: tomorrow's elections could be the most policed and militarised in Nigerian history. The Inspector General of Police has already promised that there will be few policemen in the stations on election day; they will all be on the streets to ensure security. We should expect more soldiers as well. A fourth possibility is this: the people could troop out to vote and accept whatever results that may be declared and we would all live happily ever after. But let no one count on that. It must be hard for the Obasanjo government to accept the general condemnation of the elections. It is Obasanjo's legacy that is at stake. A failed 2007 electoral process organised by the Obasanjo government could become the measuring tape for everything else that the administration has done in eight years. But it is a self-inflicted injury that they must be ready to live with. Civilian to civilian transition has always been a problem for Nigeria. That fact has been re-affirmed. The results of tomorrow's elections will be just as controversial because no one trusts either Iwu or INEC to respect "the true intent of the voter". General Muhammadu Buhari says he is relying on the Nigerian people "to come out in great numbers and vote for the candidate of their choice,,, and guard and protect their votes at the polling booths." The other political parties, which are taking part for record purposes mainly, are similarly passing the buck to the Nigerian people who already suffer under the weight of a double jeopardy. It is a tough season for Nigeria. Africa's "giant" has again exposed its feet of clay.
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