Mugabe's Twilight
By Reuben Abati

"He is still living on a slave plantation. All we can do is pray for him".- Wole Soyinka on Robert Gabriel Mugabe

NOT so many people are praying for Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe's sit-tight ruler at the moment, particularly outside the shores of Zimbabwe. Following the March 29 parliamentary and presidential elections in which his party the ZANU-PF which had dominated politics and the Zimbabwe society for decades, lost parliamentary majority to the opposition and could not win the Presidential election outright, much attention has been paid to the eventual arrival of that moment when Zimbabwe would be rid of the suffocating presence and tyranny of Robert Mugabe.

The West wants him out. Inside Africa, Mugabe is one of the longest serving rulers in the continent, and one of the last surviving set of African tyrants in the mould of Houphouet-Boigny of Cote d'Ivoire, Malawi's Hastings Kamuzu Banda, Congo's Mobutu Sese Seko, and Uganda's Idi Amin Dada. After 28 years in power and a consistent demonstration of incompetence and the lootocracy of a minority ruling elite, Mugabe's continued Presidency has become an embarrassment to the rest of Africa.

The West is resolved that the only election that can be free and fair in Zimbabwe is the one that Mugabe loses, not just for reasons of democracy, but also because they consider him a racist, a bully and a fool. His indigenization policy and his land redistribution policy which took land from white commercial farmers in 2000 and handed out parcels of land to the local population brought upon him charges of racism and cruelty. The transformation of Robert Mugabe from hero to villain is one of the mysteries of power politics and human psychology in Africa..

The March 2008 election was expected to be a turning point in Zimbabwean politics and an opportunity to begin to consider a future Zimbabwe without Mugabe. The South Africans who were brokering meetings between the opposition, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and other aggrieved elements within the country had hoped that even if Mugabe won the election, he would take the option of voluntary retirement, backed by guarantees of immunity from prosecution, and that a post-Mugabe government would form an inclusive government of national unity which would seek to heal old wounds and restore Zimbabwe to the path of renewal and prosperity. But what has now been proven with the March 29 elections is that there are perhaps no easy answers to the Zimbabwe puzzle. Only one fact is clear though: Mugabe has become an obstacle to his own country a veritable political and economic liability.

But still, the opposition could not win the required 50% plus one vote to get Mugabe out of power. Neither Mugabe's ZANU-PF nor Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) could win enough per centages of the vote to claim victory. The Zimbabwe Constitution allows for a run-off election within 21 days of the first ballot, and the ruling ZANU-PF has already indicated that it is looking forward to this. An outright win by the MDC would have been preferable.. There are no guarantees that Mugabe will willingly give up power, not when he has been confronted with the fact of his vulnerability and waning popularity. In 2002, Mugabe had won the Presidential election by a narrow margin of 400, 000 votes. But he was helped more by arm-twisting tactics and the use of the state apparatus to intimidate the opposition. In 2008, the MDC has dealt him an even much bigger blow. The MDC is ordinarily considered a party of the urban areas, but this time around, it made significant in-roads in the rural areas often erroneously considered the stronghold of the ZANU-PF. Previously ZANU-PF manipulated elections in those rural areas. The loss of parliamentary majority is also a strong message that many Zimbabweans no longer consider the ruling elite as having a monopoly of ideas and aspirations. There were independent candidates in the election and one of them made it to parliament; the open rebellion of Simba Makoni, a former ZANU-PF chieftain and Finance Minister was equally a public demonstration of growing divisions within the ruling party.

Mugabe is alleging Western conspiracy against him, his party has also accused the MDC of bribing electoral officials, but in his sober moments,. Uncle Bob must be afraid that he is losing grip. For more than two decades, Mugabe managed to re-create Zimbabwe in his own image, by building a post-independent, disciplined and socially conservative society. Most Zimbabweans looked up to him. He was their father figure. And in his better days, Mugabe helped to preserve the country's developed infrastructure, and its strategic advantage as the food basket of the South African Development Community (SADC) region, and the second most active industrial hub in the region.

His biggest achievement was perhaps in the area of education. In 1980 when the country became independent, Zimbabwe could boast of only two black engineers; but determined investment in education soon produced under Mugabe, an educated middle class, and a literacy rate that is the highest in Africa. But a resort to tyranny, a determination to turn Zimbabwe into a one-party state, sheer cruelty and an ambivalent nationalism soon turned Mugabe into a despot. In the 80s, Mugabe included in his cabinet, members of the white community. But when in the late 1990s white commercial farmers defected to Zimbabwe's emerging opposition he felt betrayed. By 2000, he had found cause to insist on the implementation of the pre-independence land resettlement agreement in a manner that smacked of vengeance.

Land was taken from white farmers and given out to blacks, mostly members of the ruling elite and their cronies. The consequences have been dire. It is at the root of the polarization of the Zimbabwe society today into two groups of nationalists. On one hand are the Mugabe supporters who believe that Mugabe is an Africanist who is committed to the protection of Zimbabwe from imperial domination. In the second group can be found the opposition, who believe that the land policy has brought so much misery and isolation to the country and that Zimbabwe needs to re-connect with the rest of the world, especially the West. The displaced white commercial farmers have since been replaced by Chinese and Indian settlers. But Zimbabwe is hurting. Sanctions against the country, coupled with the incompetence of the ruling elite, have resulted in deprivation.

Today, Zimbabwe lacks everything from food to drugs. Close to 3.8 million Zimbabweans are currently in diaspora as economic refugees. Large swathes of the country's 13. 5 population are escaping into neighbouring countries in search of better life. Inflation is over 100, 000%. A week ago, Zimbabwe introduced a new 50 million Zim dollar bank note. It is worth one United States dollar and can only buy three loaves of bread! The pattern of the results in the recent elections therefore is to be seen in an economic context. Ordinary people are losing interest in the Mugabe government because they are hungry. They are responding to the rumblings in their stomachs. The economy is always a strong factor in politics. Mugabe may be a tyrant, but he is being shown through the ballot, that he is no more than a cardboard figure when the people are determined to express their will.

But will Mugabe take the cue and step aside? It would be strange if he were to do so. Mugabe considers the leadership of Zimbabwe, his life's work and mission. He would not want to leave power as a disgruntled old man. He will rather die in office. Those who propose the option of voluntary retirement to him may perhaps be appealing to his Christian instincts (the man is a Catholic and he goes to Church religiously) but Mugabe's biggest fear is the prospect of ending up like Zambia's Chiluba or Liberia's Charles Taylor. He is smart enough to know that promises of immunity from prosecution coming from Tsvangirai and the MDC cannot be relied upon.

With a strong international framework for dealing with declared "enemies of the West" in place, Mugabe is intelligent enough to know that outside power, he will be an easy victim. Chiluba was tried for corruption after he left office. Charles Taylor is answering charges before the International Criminal Court. Taylor relinquished power after he had been promised immunity. Mugabe would not want to risk such a fate. There are ghosts from the past that may haunt him outside power including the raid on Matebeleland in the mid-80s by his North Korean-trained 5th Brigade, resulting in the death of more than 20, 000 persons who were accused of supporting Mugabe's rival, Joshua Nkomo.. In 2005, his "Operation Murambatsvina" (clear the trash) led to the displacement of over one million people. In 2007, opposition leaders were beaten by state agents. Journlaists were not spared. Bill Saidi, an editor with The Daily News received a bullet in the mail, and was advised: "Watch your step."

Mugabe is not planning to lose or leave power. When his proposal to postpone elections till 2010 was opposed within the ZANU-PF, he had accused those plotting his exit from office of ambition. And in a February 2007 interview, he had boasted: "If I want to lengthen my term I can stand next year (that is 2008)...what prevents me from standing and beating? I can stand and have another six years for that matter...." To achieve this objective, Mugabe is likely to roll out the state machinery of repression to have his way. Already journalists are being targeted and harassed. The opposition may soon find its members facing more brutal harassment than they endured in 2002. South Africa, the regional power may not intervene, because although it pretends to be talking to all stakeholders, Thabo Mbeki is more committed to Robert Mugabe. It is further instructive that Zimabawe's army commander has vowed that the army will keep Mugabe in power. This is Mugabe's main constituency.

But if Mugabe wins the run-off, would Zimbabwe implode as Kenya did recently? Maybe not. The opposition in Zimbabwe is far more divided than the ruling ZANU-PF. In 2002, Tsvangirai had complained about "daylight robbery" and spoken aggressively on television, but after taking a few blows to the head, he kept quiet and said the people will decide. The Zimbabwean opposition needs to show a greater determination for power. In all instances, the people of Zimbabwe are being short-changed. Even if the MDC wins at the end of the day, its first major task would be to define what to do with power. Tsvangirai has become the face of the struggle against Mugabe, but he has no real ideas about power and governance. He dropped out of school at 16, and has spent the better part of his life as a unionist. As President, he could end up as a mere stooge of Western imperialism and no more.

If no one prays for Mugabe, he must be praying for himself. What no one knows is what he tells his God. When he emerged as his country's Prime Minister-elect in April 1980, he had made an impassioned speech on the eve of independence in which he said: "Tomorrow we shall cease to be men and women of the past and become men and women of the future. It's tomorrow then, not yesterday, which bears our destiny." Zimbabweans have never looked more to tomorrow, than now. It is that inevitable future, and the day after, that Zimbabweans must begin to prepare for. Mugabe's exit will bring back foreign aid, and investment, the World Bank and the IMF, and the white commercial farmers waiting around the border, but there will be more urgent challenges of restoration and rediscovery. For now, Mugabe is holding down his country by all means, a liberation figure of the past, now an undertaker, a pathetic old man in power who would rather die in office.

Haba (!), Deji Of Akure?

Managers of the Deji of Akure's public relations have a lot of explaining to do, and the traditional ruler himself owes some people an apology. Oba Oluwadare Adesina Adepoju, acting under the auspices of the Deji in council was said to have asked a cement dealer to quit the business or stop making business difficult for his colleagues. David Oluwole Alasoniyi, a cement dealer in Akure was reportedly taken to the Oba's palace after his colleagues in the business had made all attempts to get him to sell a bag of cement to the public at a higher and fixed rate.

Alasoniyi sells his own bag of cement for N1, 600 while other members of the Cement Dealers Association in Akure operating as a cartel sell at the rate of N1, 800 or N2, 000 per bag. His colleagues prevailed on him to join the cartel. But he refused. Whereupon they reported him to the Oba noting that he is not an indigene of Akure, and he is "spoiling business for others". Alasoniyi told the Deji in Council that he had lived in Akure for 30 years, and that he is happy selling a bag of cement at N1, 600, because at that rate, he has made enough profit. He told the Oba in council that he is not ready to engage in sharp practices like other cement dealers in the town. He was accompanied to the trial by his wife.

And what was the Oba's ruling? A report in The Guardian of Wednesday, April 2, states as follows: "In his ruling, the monarch urged Alasoniyi to consider the fact that other dealers have families to feed and although he could not be forced to join the association in accordance with the provision of freedom of association guaranteed by the Constitution of Nigeria, he should not engage in acts that would be detrimental to the survival of others. Oba Adepoju ruled that Alasoniyi should henceforth sell at the same price with others in the interest of peace and harmony or quit the business entirely." The petitioners immediately broke into a round of jubilation, dancing and singing; Alasoniyi told The Guardian later that "he had no option but to abide by the Oba's ruling."

It is an unbelievable story but no one has denied it. Is the Deji Akure more concerned about cement dealers making evil profit? How about the numerous struggling families in his domain who are trying to build houses, but are being cheated by greedy cement dealers? Alasoniyi should have been praised for his honesty and the cement dealers ordered to behave decently. Unfortunately, there are no opportunities for appeal in the Oba's court. And poor Alasoniyi, he has been blackmailed to join the company of cheats. Where is the Consumer Protection Council? And where are the people of Akure? And who will tell His Royal Majesty that he is absolutely wrong?

Robot  Villager

# 1 Mugabe's Twilight By Reuben Abati "He is still livi...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 06.04.2008 08:21

Sunshine  Villager

# 2 Reuben, thank you for such a detailed article on Roberta Mugabe, the old tyrant. Going through it, I couldn't but feel despondent. The other article on the Deji of Akure didn't make me feel any better either. As inconsequential as the latter story on the Akure cement dealer, Citizen David might appear, a common thread runs through both stories. Firstly the calibre of leadership we have in Africa and where they lay their priorities and the secondly Africans are hurting and generally appear incapable of helping ourselves get out of the shackles of oppression. A simplistic but profound view came from a child who had just watched the whole Zimbabwe debacle on CNN. This was shortly followed by some clips of terrorists in Iraq. "Why is it that the man behind this old Mugabe can't simply 'waste' him and bear the consequences. Look at these people facing US armies and they are not even trained." No response from me. He asked again I had to give an answer. I simply pontificated that violence was not the path to take. The 15 year old didn't let me off that easily. "Yes, violence is not the way forward but when someone like Mugabe refuses to let his people go..." "The plagues of Egypt shall befall him" I quipped. You asked in the second article on the royal price hike in cement in Akure, “Who will tell the Oba?” While I don't ever advocate the way of violence, Africans have to begin to stand up to the selfishness of our leaders and confront the glaring injustices meted out to us. Africans are suffering indeed but are they still smiling I ask? Somewhat. The young child here isn’t smiling any longer and it is scary to know that such thoughts would cross the minds of teenagers in Nigeria. A way forward is thru articles such as yours which gives us full details of the situation but we need sincere people in government who are there to serve rather than swerve the nation's wealth their way. The mistake we make is to believe that this will come only from the educated. When anywhere have the elite been the ones to change the status quo? Sincerity of purpose and a sense of patriotism are not learned from big isms and books. Genuine love for our fellow human being, eradication of poverty and desiring to provide health care are not embossed on degree certificates. The elite can direct but the unread have the right to lead the way just as anyone else with a string of degrees. After all, they are the ones most affected, the so called grassroot. The opposition leader might be a stark illiterate but he has the courage and tenacity which the intellectuals lack. He needs their support. should he win there are many of them to steer the country forward but confronting the monster is the first step. When will this end? Your guess is as good as mine. Now on the cement issue, do you really think we still have a Consumer Protection council? I seriously doubt that. Are they a part of the nefarious acts of the telecommunications cartels? do they have a Director General. What is their duty? Posted by Sunshine| 06.04.2008 15:24

Sunshine  Villager

# 3 Reuben, thank you for such a detailed article on Roberta Mugabe, the old tyrant. Going through it, I couldn't but feel despondent. The other article on the Deji of Akure didn't make me feel any better either. As inconsequential as the latter story on the Akure cement dealer, Citizen David might appear, a common thread runs through both stories. Firstly the calibre of leadership we have in Africa and where they lay their priorities and the secondly Africans are hurting and generally appear incapable of helping ourselves get out of the shackles of oppression. A simplistic but profound view came from a child who had just watched the whole Zimbabwe debacle on CNN. This was shortly followed by some clips of terrorists in Iraq. "Why is it that the man behind this old Mugabe can't simply 'waste' him and bear the consequences. Look at these people facing US armies and they are not even trained." No response from me. He asked again I had to give an answer. I simply pontificated that violence was not the path to take. The 15 year old didn't let me off that easily. "Yes, violence is not the way forward but when someone like Mugabe refuses to let his people go..." "The plagues of Egypt shall befall him" I quipped. You asked in the second article on the royal price hike in cement in Akure, “Who will tell the Oba?” While I don't ever advocate the way of violence, Africans have to begin to stand up to the selfishness of our leaders and confront the glaring injustices meted out to us. Africans are suffering indeed but are they still smiling I ask? Somewhat. The young child here isn’t smiling any longer and it is scary to know that such thoughts would cross the minds of teenagers in Nigeria. A way forward is thru articles such as yours which give us full details of the situation but we need sincere people in government who are there to serve rather than swerve the nation's wealth their way. The mistake we make is to believe that this will come only from the educated. When anywhere have the elite been the ones to change the status quo? Sincerity of purpose and a sense of patriotism are not learned from big isms and books. Genuine love for our fellow human being, eradication of poverty and desiring to provide health care are not embossed on degree certificates. The elite can direct but the unread have the right to lead the way just as anyone else with a string of degrees. After all, they are the ones most affected, the so called grassroot and it is a common collective. Morgan Tsvangirai might not have much education but he has the courage and tenacity which the intellectuals lack. He needs their support. should he win there are many of them to steer the country forward but confronting the monster is the first step. Why in the world do we suffer such tyranny in Africa. Is it as the 15 year old said we love our livfe too much to go all out for our people. When will this end? Your guess is as good as mine. Now on the cement issue, do you really think we still have a Consumer Protection council? I seriously doubt that. Are they a part of the telecommunications cartels? Do they have a Director General. What is their duty? Shouldn't someone from this body be checking...what? While Mugabe prays may be the people of Zimbabwe are praying as Nigerians claimed to have prayed Sani Abacha to his final apple bite. There is a beginning and there will be an end.The miserable mysteries we face. Posted by Sunshine| 06.04.2008 15:35