Mbeki's mistake

By Reuben Abati

FORMER South African President, Thabo Mbeki has many Nigerian friends. But he obviously failed to consult them in the course of his bitter rivalry with his former Deputy President, Jacob Zuma. He is now the loser having been humiliated out of office by the more politically savvy Zuma. This is Mbeki's big mistake. Rivalry between a sitting President/Governor, and his Deputy is a familiar episode in Nigeria's political landscape, but usually, such confrontations are resolved in favour of the senior man of power. Nigerians would easily recall the bitter confrontation between former President Olusegun Obasanjo and Vice President Atiku Abubakar, between Orji Kalu and his Deputy, Enyinanya Abaribe in Abia State; and between former Governor Bola Tinubu and two Deputies, one after the other - Senator Kofoworola Bucknor-Akerele and Mr. Femi Pedro.

In Nigeria, ambitious Deputies who make the mistake of confronting their Principal are often made to pay dearly for this. They are ostracized and rendered irrelevant within the party. The only exception to this rule, perhaps is Deputy Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala (as he then was) who managed to upstage his boss, Rashidi Ladoja in Oyo State. But this was not due to any political dexterity on Alao-Akala's part, the decisive factor in that battle was the late Chief Lamidi Adedibu's overweening and pervasive influence. Has Mr. Mbeki ever heard of "Godfather" politics? His exit from power appears too logical, too easy; it is almost unbelievable.

Ordinarily in Nigerian politics, the king is always right, and the Presidency in particular is so powerful that the man in the chair can wield the power of life and death. In comparison with South Africa, it is not a question of differences in system of government (parliamentary system as opposed to a presidential system), but culture. If Thabo Mbeki were a Nigerian President, he would still be in power today. If Jacob Zuma were a Nigerian, he would not have been in a position to humiliate, to use a popular Nigerian phrase, "an incumbent" President.

The parting of ways between President Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma occurred in 2005, when following the conviction of Zuma's financial adviser on the grounds of corruption and indications that Vice President Zuma, as he then was, was complicit in this, President Mbeki relieved Zuma of his position as Vice President. Zuma was subsequently charged to court, not only for corruption but also rape in what became one of the most sensational trials in post-apartheid South Africa. Zuma and his supporters alleged political persecution. President Mbeki insisted on the integrity of the Presidency and the rule of law. But Zuma, pushed out of high office, remained a member of the African National Congress (ANC), the ruling party and while his case was being heard in court, Zuma concentrated on consolidating his influence and power base within the party. A populist and a cynical politician with a capacity to move the crowds, sing and dance with them, Zuma is/was seen by the average ANC member and black South African as a champion of black interests in contrast to Mbeki who is seen as pro-West, pro-white and somewhat too aloof. The Mbeki government's inability to meet the expectations of the black majority in a post-apartheid season, the slow pace of economic freedom and black empowerment further alienated the Mbeki government from the black majority. Losing this perception and popularity game was bound to be costly. Mbeki should have called on his Nigerian friends in politics. If Nigeria was too far away, he could have sought counsel in Kenya or Zimbabwe. There is Mwai Kibaki in Kenya. And the old fox, Dr. Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe. But I would have recommended Nigeria's Obasanjo, who deserves the top prize for giving effect to the idea of politics as war. The beginning of Mbeki's end can be traced to the December 2007 ANC elections. Zuma dealt a deadly blow on him in that election, when he and his supporters took over all the positions in the party hierarchy, with Zuma emerging as Chairman of the party. In South Africa's parliamentary system, Zuma as party chairman had technically gained an upper hand in the power game. This would have been difficult to achieve against "an incumbent" President in Nigeria. Why didn't Mbeki consult Obasanjo? His first lesson would have been about the power of incumbency. Two years earlier, Mbeki could have been advised by Nigerian strategists to remove Zuma as Vice President and in addition engineer his dismissal from the ANC for anti-party activities!

When former President Obasanjo became dissatisfied with Atiku Abubakar's politics - his opposition to the Third Term agenda, his open declaration of interest in the 2007 Presidential election, and his public criticisms of Obasanjo - the first thing Obasanjo did was to isolate his Vice President. Atiku was the leader of the political machinery, the PDM that brought Obasanjo to power. Wielding the power of the Presidential office, however, Obasanjo dismantled the PDM. He removed PDM and pro-Atiku persons from positions of influence. He reduced Atiku's own personal staff, scaled down the security around him. In due course, it was clear to everyone in the corridors of power that anyone who was seen either exchanging greetings, or notes with Atiku would be automatically considered an enemy of the President.

State Governors who appeared to be loyal to Atiku were slammed with corruption charges and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), which became Obasanjo's personal army was unleashed on such Governors. Opportunism is the engine oil of Nigerian politics. Some of those Governors were impeached. Obasanjo even changed the PDP Constitution and made himself the most powerful member of the party. One by one, those who had founded the party and invited him to join it in 1998, were driven out of the party.

Atiku and his sympathizers and other anti-Obasanjo forces, in an attempt to remain in politics, had to form a rival political party, the Action Congress. But Obasanjo's government still found an answer to that by quickly setting up a Presidential panel which indicted the Vice President and thus technically declared him unfit for Presidential office. The man went to court to challenge the assault on his rights; he won all the cases, but he was successfully distracted by the system.

If Mbeki had taken classes in the Nigerian school of politics, Zuma would have had a taste of this Atiku treatment. He and his supporters would have been hounded out of the party and the country; the old apartheid machinery would have been carefully resurrected to deal specifically with Jacob Zuma and his friends. The stubborn ones among them would have been kidnapped, threatened and reported to the traditional chiefs of their original communities. The ANC elections which brought Zuma to power within the party would have been rigged or it would have been inconclusive and if concluded, the results could only have favoured the incumbent President. If this would not be possible, Mbeki and his supporters could have organized thugs to disrupt the process. In the run-up to the election, Zuma's supporters would have been picked up and detained until after the election. This is the Nigerian way. In Nigerian politics, the end justifies not the means, but the meanness.

It is noteworthy that former President Nelson Mandela is not on record anywhere as having taken sides in the Mbeki-Zuma squabble. In Nigeria, a man like that would have been forced by the President to come out in his support, both publicly and within the ANC. Mrs. Mbeki has also not said a word. A Nigerian First Lady would have seized the initiative. She and Mrs. Zuma would have had a spat of their own in the public arena. Former President Mbeki was too busy allowing democracy to take its course. In Nigeria, democracy means winning power and position by any means possible. Nigerian consultants could have helped to remind him that the anti-apartheid struggle ended long ago, and that the new challenge is to stop ambitious ANC apparatchiks.

The judiciary played a central role in the Mbeki-Zuma affair. It was the ruling by a High Court judge suggesting that Zuma's trial is politically motivated and that the Mbeki government has a hand in this that galvanized the Zuma wing of the ANC into action against the President. The party recalled Mbeki as President and he quietly complied. If Mbeki had taken Nigerian lessons, the High Court Judge would not have had the effrontery to speak as he did. He would have been reminded in all kinds of manner that it'd be improper to give a ruling that could jeopardize national security. Indeed, he could have been quietly promoted or recommended for promotion a few days earlier!

The meeting of the ANC National Executive Committee where the decision to recall Mbeki was taken, if this were in Nigeria, would definitely have ended in chaos. First, an attempt would have been made to bribe the members with oil and gas contracts, mining contracts and offers of positions in government. Traditional rulers from their communities would have been asked to prevail on them not to destabilize the country. Mbeki's likely resignation would also have generated serious tension between Zulus and Xhosas, with the latter - Mbeki's kinsmen protesting that there is a Zulu agenda against the President and that he, Mbeki should be allowed to complete his tenure. In parliament, all Xhosas would have queued up behind their President; they would have staged a walk-out or snatch the Mace or engage other lawmakers in physical combat.

After the submission of Mbeki's letter of resignation to Parliament, state Governors, businessmen, rich men and women would have prevailed on the lawmakers to reject the resignation in the national interest. There would have been arranged solidarity rallies where rented crowds would have argued that the country would come to a sudden end, if Mbeki leaves. And if every option looked difficult, if the trouble-makers refused to accept all pleas, the government itself could have organized a phantom coup and Zuma and some of his supporters would have been arrested as the ring-leaders. Their trial would be on-going until after next year's elections.

Some commentators have expressed fears about the likely factionalization of the ANC in a post-Mbeki era. The former President, if he were a Nigerian, would in fact, have encouraged that. A Nigerian President and his supporters would have imagined the kind of humiliation that they could suffer outside power and office. If Zuma were a Nigerian, for example, by now, a probe of the Mbeki era would have become the main task of the new government. To prevent such humiliation, Nigerian leaders cling to power at all costs.

Mbeki has been praised for being a disciplined party man, for respecting the will of the majority, his devotion to his country, his dignified conduct as President, his careful management of South African affairs in a post-Mandela season, his commitment to the African renaissance, respect for rule of law, his diplomacy and his skills as a bridge-builder. Nigerian politicians have been asked to learn from his example. It is like preaching to the deaf. Nigerian politicians assume that the best way to be a good party man is to turn the party into a personal property. Zuma is far more Nigerian than Mbeki. But running a country is not the same as dancing toyi-toyi, or having a sweet revenge. Mbeki may, in the long run, have the last laugh. With his exit, South Africa has lost its innocence...

Robot  Villager

# 1 Zuma is far more Nigerian than Mbeki. But running a country is not the same as dancing toyi-toyi, or having a sweet revenge. Mbeki may, in the long run, have the last laugh. With his exit, South Afri...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 26.09.2008 07:19

FoxCatcher  Villager

# 2 A well developed piece that effectively portrays our contradictions and backwardness. Mbeki's resignation should not be so newsworthy, if not for the entrenched roforofo of African politics. When such acts which should be considered normal in a decent clime becomes praise worthy, it shows the depths our political culture's degeneration. In Nigerian politics, the end justifies not the means, but the meanness. Bang on target; but sad, so sad:( Despite his apparent humiliation, Mbeki has actually written his name in gold by his resignation. By doing so without resorting to 'African politics', he's distanced himself from the school of despots that abound in the continent's power corridors. I wish him well and believe we've not heard the last of this man. Ciao Posted by FoxCatcher| 26.09.2008 09:06

tonsoyo  Villager

# 3 Waow! What a wonderful comparative analysis. Yeah Mbeki needs a lesson in "Nigerian Democracy" :D Which kin yeye President dey resign when you can arrest.:D Posted by tonsoyo| 26.09.2008 11:12

ajimoh  Villager

# 4 Mbeki has been praised for being a disciplined party man, for respecting the will of the majority, his devotion to his country, his dignified conduct as President, his careful management of South African affairs in a post-Mandela season, his commitment to the African renaissance, respect for rule of law, his diplomacy and his skills as a bridge-builder. Nigerian politicians have been asked to learn from his example. It is like preaching to the deaf. Nigerian politicians assume that the best way to be a good party man is to turn the party into a personal property. The underlined encapsulates it all about Nigerian politicians who are, if the truth be said devoid of florid language, deaf, dumb, acutely blind to the obvious and, mostly, thieves! They visit other progressing nations, e.g. Dubai, but return home with more severe disabilities - Kleptomania! Posted by ajimoh| 26.09.2008 11:34

isola  JJC

# 5 Normally, there is the concept of party supremacy. If a party on whose platform you were elected to office 'recalls' you, the only choice open to you is to bow to the wish of the party. It is because of the degeneration in our own political system that we are surprised about Mbeki's action. There is nothing remarkable in what Mbeki has done. He lost the confidence of his party and worse still, is the fact that the judiciary accused him of interfering with the judicial process. If that alone were to be investigated and he were found culpable, it is grounds for impeachment and removal from office. The ANC is a very disciplined party, created in 1912, and Mbeki KNOWS what party supremacy means. That tradition is not developed yet in our country's political system. Our society spent many years under a military diktat and many of the people crowding our political space have little understanding or patience for democracy in the political party system. But let us keep hope alive and work towards the day when our own country will join the ranks of democratic countries. Posted by isola| 26.09.2008 11:54

dapxin  Villager

# 6 Classic RA as always. With his exit, South Africa has lost its innocence... the unsaid portions above, is what strikes me most. Something is painfully itchy about the oncoming days for the politics of SA. Hmnnnnnnnnnn! Posted by dapxin| 26.09.2008 12:16

tonsoyo  Villager

# 7 =isola;274105>Normally, there is the concept of party supremacy. If a party on whose platform you were elected to office 'recalls' you, the only choice open to you is to bow to the wish of the party. It is because of the degeneration in our own political system that we are surprised about Mbeki's action. There is nothing remarkable in what Mbeki has done. He lost the confidence of his party and worse still, is the fact that the judiciary accused him of interfering with the judicial process. If that alone were to be investigated and he were found culpable, it is grounds for impeachment and removal from office. The ANC is a very disciplined party, created in 1912, and Mbeki KNOWS what party supremacy means. That tradition is not developed yet in our country's political system. Our society spent many years under a military diktat and many of the people crowding our political space have little understanding or patience for democracy in the political party system. But let us keep hope alive and work towards the day when our own country will join the ranks of democratic countries. Nobody is suggesting that by resigning Mbeki has proved a direct blood relation to Mother Theresa. It is just looking at what happened from the Nigerian perspective. Great would be the day that a Nigerian leader would heed such recall. Posted by tonsoyo| 26.09.2008 12:39

ajimoh  Villager

# 8 The ANC is a very disciplined party, created in 1912, and Mbeki KNOWS what party supremacy means. That tradition is not developed yet in our country's political system. Our society spent many years under a military diktat and many of the people crowding our political space have little understanding or patience for democracy in the political party system. But let us keep hope alive and work towards the day when our own country will join the ranks of democratic countries. Dear Isola, With respect, the situation we find ourselves has nothing to do with the number of years spent under military diktat. It is the sense of what is right or wrong and morally reprehensible which is, at the end of the day, our main problem. It certainly does not require 100 years for anyone to realise that taking and appropriating what belongs to others is just not right. Even the military that we allude to has been guilty of the same Kleptomania and lack of understanding of military values. Do we also indulge them a few hundred years? No! We ought to stop making excuses for the monumental failure of our politicians and the military, a failure which is our collective shame as a nation. Did those who plundered our nation during the Shagari era not know about what led to the collapse of the first republic? Did the Obasanjo brigandry not know about the Shagari era? OBJ having stepped aside, has anything changed, has State Chief Executives stopped looting their States, making unlawful deductions from Local Government allocations, etc? Which of the States show any semblance of governance except Anambra & Lagos? How long does it take to learn from past experiences? ‘Rome was not built in a day’ is now so lame an excuse and no longer acceptable, seeing that Dubai was built ‘in a day’. There must be something fundamnetal wrong with our politicians in the rabid looting of our resources and carting away to overseas territories! It is that lure that makes them not know when to bow out gracefully, e.g. the former dictator, General Ibrahim Babangida, and the former speaker of the House of Representatives. And our lack of shame and delusion? Go ask General Babangida too! Posted by ajimoh| 26.09.2008 12:55

Mikky jaga  Villager

# 9 Mbeki made a very terrible mistake by allowing his former deputy engineer his exit from power. He must have sorely missed the services of his friend OBJ. If OBJ were still in power this type of nonesense would not have happened. If it means flooding South Africa with oil money, it would have been done and Mbeki would have been saved. If Zuma eventually becomes the new President of South Africa, he should remember he is not a white man and should develop his own "Home grown democracy" that forbids his party from asking him to resign. What an effrontery just to think of it!! Posted by Mikky jaga| 26.09.2008 13:43

Austin  Villager

# 10 Mbeki may, in the long run, have the last laugh. With his exit, South Africa has lost its innocence... Thank you Dr abati for a beautiful piece. It is almost always the case that some want to play according to the rules, while others don't mind cutting corners - as long as they have their ways. Time is the wisest teacher, lets wait and see what time has in store for us concerning beloved SA. Posted by Austin| 26.09.2008 14:56

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