06 Jan 2008 |
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Kenya Is Burning. Its Leaders Are Fiddling The tragedy that has now taken grip of Kenya, the East African country, is not as remote as it may appear to a Nigerian audience. It is the full-scale dramatization of what could have happened in Nigeria after the April 2007 elections. The factors involved are, more or less, the same, save perhaps the heavy accent on tribal division. There are lessons that other African nations can learn from the Kenyan madness. In spite of widespread poverty, and its rather risky roads, and more than 24 years of dictatorship at the top, Kenya has been a relatively stable and happy African country. Its athletes have brought it much fame through their performance in track and field, especially long distance running. Its game reserves have turned it into a major tourist destination. Its intellectuals are among the more hardworking and productive set in Africa. While other countries within the East African region burned, Kenya managed to contain its own troubles, and served as a safe haven for refugees from neighbouring countries. Today, those repressed troubles have broken loose in form of burning passions, tribal anarchy and criminality. The country faces a serious humanitarian and political crisis. Disagreements over the announcement of the results of the Presidential elections held on December 27, 2007, which gave incumbent President Mwai Kibaki victory, have led to terrible electoral violence. More than 300 Kenyans have been killed, about 250, 000 persons have been displaced. Many Kenyans have become refugees in their own country. Close to 70, 000 children are among the victims. In Nairobi, Coast, Kisumu, Kondele, Mombassa, Eldoret, Kakamega, Rift Valley and Nyanza, the streets have been taken over by angry youths who are wielding machetes, bows and arrows, and who are measuring their anger in terms of bloodshed and fallen lives. The state security is on the streets as well, acting on the orders that it has been given to shoot protesters on sight. Kenya is about to become another failed African state. The anarchy is spreading. The statistics are getting worse. What went wrong? It seems to me that Kenya is paying a price for the failure of leadership and the syndrome among African leaders to want to hold on to power by all means and at all costs. The chief cause of the crisis is Mwai Kibaki and his determination to use the incumbency factor to hold on to power. He and his agents must be held responsible. Before Mwai Kibaki, Arap Moi ruled Kenya as if he had a divine mandate but the coalition of pro-democracy forces and the constitutional barring of Moi from running for president again, made it possible for Kibaki to emerge as President in 2002. Even more useful is the transition from a one-party state to multi-partyism in 1992. But if anyone had thought that Moi's departure would end the culture of dictatorship, that would have been a mistake. Kibaki, a former liberal., has since showed his true colours with his power-mongering tendencies. His wife, Lucy also showed up early as a tigress of power. She once held a television station hostage. On another occasion, she went to the premises of The Nation, slapped the editor, and stopped the production of the newspaper with the aide of state security men. In the lead up to the December 27 elections, Kibaki deliberately skewed all the electoral processes in his own favour and his party, the Party of National Unity (PNU). The campaign process was febrile and heated. The politicians in all the political parties including the ruling PNU used venomous language. Ethnic hatred was freely purveyed. More informal media outlets sprang up which behaved like the Rwanda media in the season of genocide. By the time Kenyans went to the polls in the Tenth General Election on December 27, the whole society was on edge; it was like a keg of gunpowder waiting to explode. In particular, there had been well-founded suspicions that the elections could be rigged. An Inter-Parliamentary Group (IGP) had agreed in principle that all political parties must be consulted in the appointment of members of the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK). The opposition also wanted to oversee the counting of votes, but they were ignored, because this was not mandated by the Electoral Law. Although the voting process itself was said to have appeared free and fair, it was not universally so, it is the counting of the votes that has now caused the immediate crisis. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and its presidential candidate, Raila Odinga, are insisting that they won the election. Opinion polls and exit polls actually favoured Raila Odinga. Certainly, the current violence in Kenya is an expression of disenchantment with the leadership and government of Mwai Kibaki. There may be a tribal colouring to the fight in some of the sections with Kibaki's Kikuyu kinsmen and Odinga's Luo kinsmen, defending their right to power, but at play really is a cross-ethnic rebellion, a people's revolt, against Kibaki, and against the ECK and the result that it announced on December 30. Kenya after 44 years of managing the rot within, is having to deal with it at great cost. We find in Kenya, the same issues that trouble us in Nigeria. First, is the assumption by incumbents in power that an election needs not be an expression of the people's will but only a mechanism for a contrived self-perpetuation in office. The ruling elite in Kenya as in Nigeria wants to hold on to power and office by force. There is also so much opportunism at work, the most invidious of which I see being displayed by the leader of the ODM-Kenya, Kalonzo Musyoka, who is already sucking up to Kibaki. Second is the integrity of elections. This does not matter to the sitting government in Kenya and its agents. They will rather manipulate the system to achieve pre-determined ends. Added to this is the integrity of the electoral commission. In Nigeria, the Electoral Commission acted brazenly like an agent of the ruling party, the PDP. In Kenya, in the face of the violence that has erupted, the Chairman of the ECK, Samuel Kavuitu has just confessed that he is not too sure that Kibaki won the election. He has admitted the partisanship and lack of independence of the ECK. When the view was canvassed that the votes should be re-counted, he further revealed that ballot papers are being tampered with at the ECK headquarters. The people who are on the streets are therefore vindicated. Sooner or later, Samuel Kavuitu and his commissioners must be made to answer for their deeds. Kenya is on the boil also because of the failure of its institutions. The protesters have resorted to self-help and the political leaders are talking tough, because nobody trusts the courts. The judicial system in Kenya has been compromised. Kavuitu disclosed that the Presidential results that he read was handed over to him, and that he was under pressure to make the announcements. Kenya judges are subjected to similar pressure. Institutions have to be re-built; as in Nigeria, an urgent process of electoral reform is mandatory. The message of the violence is simple: the people want their votes to count. The integrity of the vote is central to the democratic process. The people's votes must be counted and reported faithfully. When this is not done, there could be violence as in Algeria in 1992, Nigeria, 1993 -1999 and now Kenya or widespread apathy as in Ethiopia and currently in Nigeria. In the late 80s and 90s, democracy and democratisation were promoted as the panacea for the failure of African states. Increasingly, we are seeing across Africa that elections in themselves may represent the fact of democratization, but they do not translate into democracy, the absence of which has brought continuing damage to the continent. The democratic project in Africa needs to be located within the province of the people's interest. In Kenya, the people who are being killed and maimed are not the architects of the crisis, not the profiteers for whom democracy is a marketing tool, those ones are safely ensconced in their homes and inside their bullet proof limousines in Nairobi. The victims are the ordinary people. They are the ones we have been seeing on CNN in those sad footages. The urgent task is to defend the interest of these innocents. The carnage must end. The sanctity of life must be restored. First, there must be peace in Kenya. The African Union has been silent. It must wake up and intervene. In the past week, there have been a number of suggestions. The two main rivals, Kibaki and Odinga and their parties have been attending meetings, but they leave those meetings only to generate more heat with their resort to absolutism. They have met with Desmond Tutu, the South African Nobel Laureate and retired Anglican Archbishop. They are also scheduled to meet with Jendayi Frazer, US Assistant Secretary of State. But they have been talking at cross-purposes and giving conditions. Odinga is unwilling to go to the courts. The courts have been ruled out because they cannot be trusted. Kibaki does not mind a unity government but only if the violence is stopped. This option favours him alone, because a unity government really means nothing to an African leader. A vote recount in the 210 Constituencies has also been suggested but the ECK Chairman has already poured water on that option. The ballot papers are being tampered with and only the courts can order a re-count after an election petition. Odinga and the ODM have rejected everything that Kibaki wants, they are asking for international mediation, a transitional government and fresh elections. Since this amounts to a nullification of the victory that Kibaki claims, he too insists that it must be recognized that he has been validly elected President. In fact, he alleges that the ODM also rigged during the elections. These hardline positions, grandstanding and one-upmanship can only further worsen the conflict. To save Kenya and prevent a civil war, there must be a trade-off between the rival parties. Kibaki and Odinga must place Kenya above personal interests. They should consider Kenya more important than their individual ambitions. Kibaki must realize that even if he imposes himself by force on the people, his government suffers already from a crisis of moral and legal illegitimacy. Odinga's supporters are celebrating "Raila mania" and reacting against what they call "Raila phobia" but they and their leader should also moderate their extremism. A former university teacher, civil rights activist, engineer, member of parliament and Presidential candidate, Raila Odinga has spent much time in the public arena, but his politics is driven more by populism rather than substance. He should focus more on ideological questions rather than the rhetoric of violence. Kenya is burning. Its leaders must stop fiddling. They cannot continue to play politics while innocent lives are being lost on the streets. The gladiators should call back their troops. A body of wise men and women, excluding Kibaki and Odinga, can be set up to form a Transitional Government, which will then organise fresh Presidential elections within three months. Kibaki must be persuaded to accept this option. And that future election cannot be conducted by Samuel Kivuitu's ECK; Kivuitu and his commissioners should be prosecuted, and the conduct of the Tenth General Election must be investigated, as soon as the opportunity arises. The arsonists, rapists and common criminals that are causing mayhem must be arrested and charged to court. Existing divisions and fissures within Kenya have been widened. The people will require long-term therapy and reconciliation. The search for peace must be combined with the search for justice. The worst that can happen however, is to hope that the protesters will soon get tired, that the violence and Kenya's "Orange Revolution" will peter out, and that life will continue as usual with Kibaki in power. This will be the equivalent of recharging a keg of gunpowder and placing a box of matches beside it.
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