26 Nov 2006 |
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Atiku's Leap Of Faith Vice President Atiku yesterday, November 25, at the Old Parade Ground, Area 10, Garki in Abuja, FCT, formally declared his interest in the 2007 Presidential elections thus again defying his boss, President Olusegun Obasanjo who had left no one in doubt so far that he will not hand over power to the Vice President, who has been disloyal to him, and who has been indicted on the grounds of corruption by an administrative panel. Atiku's declaration is a leap of faith. It can be likened to a trip in one of those rickety planes in Nigerian skies; boarding the flight is not a problem, but arriving safely at your destination could be a major challenge. Between take-off and landing, so many things could happen to abort the trip. The passenger is sustained by sheer will-power and faith. Hence, the Vice President was all over the newspapers yesterday in a syndicated interview, which read like an advertorial for his cause, published under different bylines. It was his 60th birthday and the day of his formal declaration as a Presidential aspirant for 2007. He had chosen this particular day to assert his rights, but did he manage to send any strong message or change the equation of his fight with the President? Atiku's bravura can only have the effect of compelling the Obasanjo camp which has sworn to stop him by all means, to come up with new strategies of containment. But what haven't they done to him already? He has been accused of corruption and indicted in an official gazette. He has been taken to the Code of Conduct Bureau for trial. His aides have been hounded out of Aso Villa. His nominees have been driven out of government. He cannot travel out of Abuja without the President's permission. He has been booed at Federal Executive Council meetings by Ministers who needed to use him to show their loyalty to the President. These days, he too avoids the Executive Council meetings. He is at best a spectator and a wall paper in the Presidency. He is not allowed to do anything. His opinions are dismissed even before they are expressed. He visited Lagos not too long ago, a group of PDP area boys waylaid him at the airport and hurled expletives at him. In Abuja, one of his security aides was killed by the police and nothing happened. His media spokesman, Garba Shehu has been arrested, detained and taken to court for divulging Official State Secrets. It was Shehu for example who revealed the state secret that the President bought a car for a female friend with public funds! Atiku has been suspended from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) by factions loyal to the President and he has been barred from taking part in the PDP Presidential primaries scheduled for December 16, which automatically means that there is no way he can get the PDP ticket. A three-million march calling for his impeachment by the National Assembly is reportedly being planned by the President's loyalists. He has also been accused of encouraging a coup d'etat, what the Presidency describes as Atiku's "reckless and dangerous suggestiveness". Atiku's response is that he is the "most investigated VP in this world". And yet, in spite of all these, he has remained defiant. He and his supporters have tried to discredit the President; they have accused him of corruption in return and they are also planning a 10-million march to call for the President's impeachment. Atiku no longer hides his contempt for his boss. In the interview published yesterday, he called him a dictator "who cannot adhere, strictly to the tenets of democracy". He says he and the President are incompatible. He in also in court, in three different cases, to challenge all the muck that has been thrown at him by the Presidency, clear his name and hopefully, run for President. The Vice President is not only courageous, he must be an optimist. But there are too many odds against him. Months after this duel began, he has been badly beaten by the President. He has been boxed into a corner. He is a victim of the near-absolute might of the office of the Nigerian President. It should be noted that no attempt was made to stop the Vice President's declaration yesterday. Even when his aides alleged that his life was in danger, the Presidency was quick to assure everyone of his safety. Obasanjo knows when he has the upper hand; his fight with Atiku is one of the sad chapters of our democracy and a comment on the personalisation of power on all fronts in Nigerian politics. But again, how far can Atiku go? At the moment, what are the factors that may determine the nature and outcome of his end-game with the President? One, is there the possibility of reconciliation between both men? This was suggested by one newspaper, on its front page yesterday. But please perish the thought, not now, may be later in the future after the spoils of battle have been won and lost. President Obasanjo's ego has been badly bruised in this fight, and there are issues that he would like to see resolved: the PDTF case, the various cases in court, the PDP primaries. The more it appears the Vice President is in a quandary, the higher the excitement in the Obasanjo camp. As things stand, the Vice President cannot run on the platform of the PDP. Even if he crosses to another party and wins the ticket of that party, he could be disqualified from contesting on the grounds that he has been indicted for corruption. The Vice President may be hoping that the case in court in which he is asking that the report of the administrative panel which indicted him be set aside, may be resolved quickly, but it is more likely that the case will drag on until he is unable to compete in the 2007 elections. When he says "...I do not have any hard feelings. If there is an opportunity to reconcile with the President, I am open to it" , he may be carrying his optimism too far. Too much animosity has been expressed already. President Obasanjo would love to crush Atiku's political ambition to send a signal to anyone else who may be tempted to challenge him to a fight. Atiku joined forces with others to stop the President from getting a Third Term outside the Constitution; Obasanjo would enjoy stopping Atiku from going near the Presidential election. This is the hard truth about the status of their fight. Two, where do the Governors stand? In 2003, the Vice President was so popular among the PDP Governors who incidentally were in the majority nationally, he could easily have stopped the President from winning the party ticket for re-election. The Governors had queued up behind him, they wanted him to lead the party and give Obasanjo the shove. But Atiku changed his mind. Now, he is lamenting. He told his interviewers: "Almost everyone tells me I made a mistake. I have not met anyone who said I did the right thing. Believe me sincerely." It is true that Governors are major players in the party primaries. In the PDP, it is certainly the Governors that will determine the party's Presidential flagbearer. The only problem is that they are all aware of the odds against the Vice President. Every one of them is also fighting for survival. They cannot afford to be seen by the President to be getting too close to Vice President Atiku. They all have skeletons in their cupboards, and they all know how the President has been using the EFCC to embarrass and remove state Governors. The VP says: "They (the Governors) will soon throw their weight behind my ambition because my PDM structure is still intact, and it is not true that my political friends have abandoned me." This optimism should be placed against the following: yesterday, on the day Atiku turned 60 and launched his presidential campaign, only three Governors placed congratulatory adverts in the papers in his honour (Bola Tinubu of Lagos, Orji Kalu of Abia and Boni Haruna of Adamawa). Out of all the Ministers and other government appointees who used to flock to Atiku's office and call him their friend and brother, only Yomi Edu identified with him yesterday. Otunba Johnson Fasawe also placed an advert and Chief Oladosu Oladipo as well. And Chief (Mrs) Titi Atiku of course. That was all. At the event in Abuja, Atiku had few friends around him when he was cutting his 60th birthday cake: Tinubu who supervised the cutting of the cake, Solomon Lar, Segun Osoba, Niyi Adebayo, Ghali Na'Abba, Iyorchia Ayu, Boni Haruna...Too many people stayed away conveniently knowing that the President will be given a detailed report of the event and this may have serious implications. For a man who wants to be President, being treated like a leper by "close political associates" is not a good omen. Three, what is the position of the political North? Atiku is not important for the sake of his personal ambition alone, if he wins a party ticket, he will be in the race as a representative of the Northern political constituency. It is trite to state that the North is desperate and anxious to regain the office of the President. Can the North afford to throw its weight behind an Atiku who has an incumbent President threatening to stop him by force, or by any means at all. How popular is the Vice President in the North? It is not impossible that the Northern establishment in its varied configurations will be tempted to vote for expediency in this matter. The Vice President has spoken about his meetings with two former Presidents, General Ibrahim Babangida and General Muhammadu Buhari under the umbrella of the Group of Three (G-3). The three of them fought together to stop the Third Term agenda in collaboration with other patriots. They are working together again to protect Nigerian democracy. This is ironic. The only catch is that both IBB and Buhari want to be President too. The Turaki Adamawa says he will appeal to them to step down for him because (a) they have been Presidents before and (b) they are older than him, and should give a younger man a chance. Even if this happens, Atiku would still need to carry the North along with him. Can the North afford to gamble with its political fortunes by openly backing an anti-Obasanjo candidate? Four, can the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) save Atiku? The Vice President is counting on the strength, the geographical spread and the influence of the PDM, the powerful political machinery which he, the late General Yar'Adua and others established in the days of the SDP and NRC. It was this machinery that brought President Obasanjo to power in 1999 and again in 2003. What the President has done since 2003, is to throw PDM officers out of government and then divide the machinery, reduce its influence, compromise many of its members. Other PDM members, like Atiku, are at the moment fighting for political survival and relevance. The ultimate joker in the hands of the Obasanjo camp may well be the emergence of Governor Umar Musa Yar'Adua of Katsina state as a Presidential aspirant. What if he is quietly backed by the Presidency, hoping to use him to divide the PDM? Would the Yar'Adua name and its symbolism not affect the Vice President's chances? The Turaki Adamawa has dismissed this as irrelevant. He says Umar Yar'Adua is not a member of the PDM and there is too much ado about the name Yar'Adua. Hear him: "The name is the name of quarters in Katsina. It is not the name of a family. Yes". For now, what stands out is Atiku's courage and optimism. He had an excellent ceremony at the Old Parade Ground in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory, yesterday. It was shown live on NTA. The music was loud and impressive with Wasiu Ayinde Marshall, the Oluaye of Fuji singing: "eh Atiku oh, Sai Atiku oh, oh Atiku for President". The Vice President himself ended his speech in which he examined the theme: "From Reforms to Prosperity" with the slogan: "Gamji, Nigeria Gamji" which promptly struck a chord with the mammoth crowd. The next three weeks will mean a lot to Atiku's political future. He may not end up as President ultimately, but he is asserting his relevance. Without a clear demonstration of relevance, a politician is dead. For as long as Atiku remains relevant, he will rise again. I hope the President remembered to send him a Birthday card. And if he didn't, I hope he, Atiku remembered to send the President a share of that lovely birthday cake that I saw on television.
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