08 Apr 2007 |
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Atiku: The Al Gore Option How far can Atiku go? This was the question I asked when the conflict between President Olusegun Obasanjo and Vice President Atiku Abubakar took a turn for the worse months ago. That question has now become relevant again. The President had declared publicly that Atiku is a disloyal person who cannot be trusted with higher responsibilities. He stated categorically, that he, Atiku will not be allowed to succeed him in office. Subsequently Atiku was accused of corruption, and an administrative panel set up by the President, and working at break neck speed, had indicted the Vice President. On the basis of this, the Presidency and INEC, which obviously serves the interests of Aso Rock, invoked Section 137 1 (i) of the 1999 Constitution which states that any one who has been so indicted stands disqualified from running for the office of the President of Nigeria. When Atiku later defected to the Action Congress, a rival party, and began to sound like the leader of the opposition against a government in which he serves as No 2, the Federal Government rushed to court with the prayer that the Vice President had by that fact, constructively resigned his position as Vice President. Since then, Vice President Atiku has shown so much bravery and determination, seizing every opportunity to defend his integrity. His lawyers have been in and out of the courts, and they have won most of their cases. For the most part, the courts have upheld Atiku's right to run for the office of President. They have dismissed his so-called indictment by an Administrative Panel of Enquiry and the Code of Conduct Bureau, and only last week, a Federal High Court ordered the Electoral Commission to put Atiku's name on the ballot. Besides his fights in the courts, the Vice President has been very active on the campaign fields, selling himself to Nigerians. He has spent money, time and energy to ensure that the President does not have his way in this matter. It is this conflict, the drama of it, the intrigues involved, its very character that I have described before now as the "Bolekaja Presidency". In the course of the drama, so much was revealed about the collapse of amity between the President and the Vice President and the division of the Presidency into two camps. This was not just a fight between two men, their supporters also queued up behind them. Governance was affected, Nigeria's image also suffered as a bewildered audience was treated to tales of malfeasance at the highest levels of government. Now, a week to the elections, where are we? How do the gladiators stand in relation to each other? Two rulings from the courts: one by the Court of Appeal affirming INEC's powers to disqualify candidates and the other by the Federal High Court insisting that Atiku should be allowed to contest, had brought the issues to a head. It seems to me that what is now certain is that the Obasanjo camp has managed to stop Atiku by all means possible and President may just have had his way. INEC has announced its decision to appeal the ruling of the Federal High Court ordering it to put Atiku's name on the ballot. INEC does not intend to do so. It is foreseeable that by the time this matter is eventually resolved, the 2007 April elections would have been won and lost. Faced with such a situation, would the courts still rule in Atiku's favour? Not likely at all. Should Atiku not review the situation and take a decision? I think he should. It is time to adopt the Al Gore option. Al Gore Jr., former Vice President of the United States was adjudged by many as the winner of the 2000 US Presidential elections. He had won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote narrowly to George Bush Jr, the current President of the United States. Gore was the third Presidential candidate in American history to win the popula vote but lose the electoral vote. He had chosen to challenge the results in the courts, and there were many alleged irregularities in the US elections particularly in the state of Florida where the race was eventually decided with a narrow margin of 537 votes. In Bush vs Gore, the Supreme Court of the United States had decided against a recount of the Florida votes on the grounds that it could not be completed before the deadline of December 12. Gore disagreed but he conceded victory to Bush. He said: "for the sake of our unity as a people and the strength of our democracy, I offer my concession". Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has not even been allowed to stand election, he has been stopped ahead of the 2007 polls. He has been rigged out of an election in which he is yet to take part. His supporters in the Action Congress have threatened that without him, there will be no elections. But I think Vice President Atiku has made his point. I do not, at this moment, see him overcoming the conspiracy that has been set up against him. He has reached such a moment when he must borrow the words of Al Gore and act "for the sake of our unity as a people and the strength of our democracy". Despite INEC's decision to appeal the ruling of the Federal High Court, Vice President Atiku had continued with his presidential campaigns. He even promised his audience in Bauchi, three days ago, that he, as President will build an international airport in Bauchi. A man must know when he has been beaten. This is not a sign of cowardice; it is sign of strength. In the fight against President Obasanjo and the PDP establishment, it is instructive that the weight of public opinion is on the side of Vice President Atiku. His enemies had tried to portray him as a crook. There are not too many Nigerians who share that view. Instead, Atiku is today the most popular Presidential aspirant, in terms of name recognition alone. They tried to portray him as a coward who could not resign his appointment after defecting to another political party. But in the court of public opinion, Atiku is considered a courageous man indeed. He stood up to President Obasanjo and challenged him to a fight. The Obasanjo group is obviously afraid of Atiku. He has shown so much resilience that is unbelievable. They could have allowed him to run for President and let the Nigerian people to decide. But they are so careful, they would not dare try that option. The strategists of Aso Rock also do not trust the Governors in the states. They don't want Atiku on the ballot and then on April 21, the Governors who may be treacherous, would swing the votes in his favour. They have chosen to be pragmatic and it has paid off so far. They and President Obasanjo have made the exclusion of Atiku from the Presidential election, a do-or-die affair, and what we now have is the story of the rise and fall of a Presidential ambition. But the Vice President can still seize the moral high ground by walking away now; if he insists on fighting till the end, his influence and politics may become yet another footnote in the presence of more urgent, emergent national issues. His consolation should be this: there is still a place for him in the future. Since 2000, Vice President Al Gore has moved on to become a statesman He is a respected voice of reason, and an award-winning author. He is a visiting Professor in three universities, a leading promoter of environmental issues, and a 2007 Nobel Prize nominee. Apart from being President of Nigeria, there must be other things that Vice President Atiku can do. He can focus on building the Action Congress into a more formidable political machinery. He can begin the campaign now for the 2011 elections and after. No one will hold his fight with President Obasanjo against him. It will be remembered that he lost on the grounds of politics, not anything else. The villains would be the Aso Rock strategists who have shown that in politics all is fair as in war. Atiku was allegedly disqualified because he was indicted by a panel of inquiry. But how about Oyo state where a similar situation has arisen? Baba wants Atiku out of the race, and finally, it looks like that has been achieved. And indeed Baba must be happy. In the future however, when a proper assessment of the Obasanjo era is attempted, both the President and Vice President Atiku would be called upon to account for their stewardship. There were questions of morality and accountability that were raised in the course of their battle for the soul of Aso Rock, and these were overtaken by the politics of the moment, with the Vice President alleging victimization, double standards and collective guilt, and the President claiming to be innocent. Under better circumstances, those issues would have to be re-opened, because indeed what is at stake ultimately is the integrity of the Obasanjo administration of which the two gladiators were the main drivers. Vice President Atiku can begin to prepare his proper defence long before that aspect of the future arises, and it would not be enough for him to claim, as he now does, that he was an outsider in the Obasanjo government. That excuse would no longer be tenable with the passage of time. Hopefully, lessons have been learnt on all sides, the principal lesson being the realisation again that in politics, there are no permanent friends, and that here in Nigeria, the professional political class is a victim of the ego of its members. As the Atiku-Obasanjo fight resolves itself, let us hope that all the foot-soldiers, the errand boys, megaphones and the abobakus who profitted from it will now find more useful tasks for their talents.
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