09 Mar 2007 |
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A rumour that shook the nation NIGERIA is surely an interesting country. Wednesday, March 7 would go down in history as a very important moment in Nigeria's preparations for the April 2007 elections and for a rather curious reason. It was the day when a rumour, taken off the wings of what seemed like a truthful report in the news media assumed a life of its own, and was soon stretched most imaginatively by the Nigerian public, into something dramatic, nationalistic, and for the moment, demonstrating the power of the spoken word, and also, the people's anxieties about the character of Nigerian politics. The day had hardly begun when the phones began to ring; mine and others, indeed nearly every available phone in the country. The phone companies must have made a lot of profits from the incident. "Is it true?" we all asked "What?" "That Yar'Adua is seriously ill and has been flown abroad?" The health of the PDP Presidential candidate, Umar Yar'Adua, the outgoing Governor of Katsina State, Obasanjo's anointed successor, was the issue of the day. The newspapers had reported, quite prominently on page one that the gentleman whose health had been a subject of much speculation and analysis had slumped suddenly on Tuesday and had to be rushed into an air ambulance to Germany. There was a kind of death-wish in nearly all the reports, both spoken and written. One newspaper even offered a copious analysis of the kidney and its functions. The Nation newspaper went a step further by asking the question: "If...who steps in?" You can fill in the gaps. One of the major ironies of the 2007 electoral process has been the decision of the PDP to choose as its Presidential flagbearer, a man with a record of ill-health, problematic kidneys and what Alhaji Muhammad Balarabe is quoted as having described as "some ailments". The PDP leadership, President Obasanjo and Yar'Adua himself have been in a state of denial about Yar'Adua's health but what transpired on Wednesday clearly indicated that his medical state is bound to affect the fortunes of the PDP in the coming elections and if he emerges as President, in spite of the people's fears, Nigeria may end up in a long or short season of doubt and anxiety. It is important to underline the reactions of Nigerian to the news of Yar'Adua's sudden collapse. Before noon, the country had been littered with all kinds of experts on the nature of the human kidney, instant medical doctors who offered free opinion about how delicate the kidneys are. There were different versions of how the man slumped and how he was rushed out of the country. He sneezed. He inhaled dust. He could not breathe properly. Only Ojo Maduekwe, the Secretary of the PDP insisted that the man had only travelled for a "routine medical check up". But how routine? I did not detect any sign of sympathy in the reactions to the incident. This was not a case of a popular leader who was in distress and whom the people, out of love and respect, wanted to empathise with. Yar'Adua as a person meant nothing to the commentators: I got the impression that his situation merely provided an opportunity for reflecting on Obasanjo's politics and the integrity of the decision-making process in the PDP, that is the process that threw up a Yar'Adua as a Presidential aspirant. By noon, the word started going round: "Yar'Adua is dead". One fellow phoned and termed it "Breaking News". Someone who had reportedly spoken with the doctors in Germany also confirmed that the man was truly dead. Another person phoned to draw attention to the fact that if the man was dead, the news would have been relayed by either CNN or the BBC. Nigerians also monitored the news. Text messages went back and forth. Nigerian websites on the internet became very busy. The whole country had become an accident scene, with concerned relatives and spectators, searching for possible casualties. "You see what Obasanjo has done to Nigeria", a friend declared. "What has Obasanjo got to do with this? I had said defensively, out of mischief of course. "Everything", the other fellow said. "He knows that Yar'Adua is not medically fit and yet he wants to impose him as President. This is the third term agenda through the back door." "How?" "Can't you see? There is a clause in the Electoral Act which allows government to postpone the elections indefinitely in the event of the death of any of the Presidential candidates." "But that is not as straightforward as it seems. The 1999 Constitution is superior to the Electoral Act. Under the Constitution, President Obasanjo and other elected representatives have a four-year tenure. That tenure expires on May 29." "The Constitution can be amended" "And who will do that?" "The National Assembly" "They wouldn't dare. We, the people will resist such a move." "Don't count on the National Assembly. I hear that they are planning to extend the hand-over date till October 1." "I don't believe that. This was how you people said Obasanjo wanted a third term. But he didn't get it. You also said he would use the Census results to create confusion. But that didn't happen." The Yar'Adua incident brought out a part of the Nigerian character: our love of rumour, our imaginativeness, and the malicious character of Nigerian politics. Any attempt to preach that people should be cautious and not kill a man before he really dies was met with the retort that "in this country there is no smoke without fire". When the evening papers hit the streets, they added more fuel to the speculations. Breaking News, published by the Daily Independent, announced that Adamu Muazu and Babangida were already being considered as replacement for Yar'Adua. Why is Yar'Adua's health so important to Nigerians? I think there was first a feeling of disappointment, a sudden realisation that both the President and Yar'Adua himself might have been lying to Nigerians. When questions were first raised about Yar'Adua's health, the President had played the role of a medical doctor by certifying him fit for the job. "I know all about Umar's ailment" he said "and it has disappeared since 2001. It was a miracle. So those calling him a sick man are the ones who are sick. After all, only God can tell who is sick or not. I wonder how somebody can open his mouth and say that a human being created by God is a sick man. I am sure he has proven to those who say he cannot stand stress that all that is not true". In the light of current revelations, the President has to come up with new explanations. At least we now know that medical doctors can tell when a man is sick and that a sick man is simply a sick man. This is not a matter for politicking. Yar'Adua himself had also boasted: "I am fit and healthy. I will invite them (opponents) to a game of squash. If they can play 12 straight sets with me, they are welcome." Nobody took up the offer. Nobody was bold enough to assist the Katsina man to commit suicide. By Wednesday, Yar'Adua integrity was at stake: was he lying to Nigerians about his health? The second leg of the politics of Yar'Adua's illness is the Obasanjo factor; no one seems to understand why President Obasanjo is so passionate about a man who is widely regarded as medically unfit for the job. Questions: what does Obasanjo want? Why would he insist on giving Nigerians a President with health problems? It is not the people that are playing God, it is the President. He has been the chief campaigner for Yar'Adua's candidacy. He allows him to use the Presidential jet, and he says making Yar'Adua President is a "do or die affair" But when will the President draw the line between friendship/loyalty and the nation's interest? The only saving grace is that the people have a choice in this matter. In the April elections, the Nigerian people have a duty to look at every candidate dispassionately and make an informed choice. Do they want a President who can stand stress or a President whose kidney is a subject of close monitoring by German doctors? Incidentally, in the coming Presidential elections, the photographs of the candidates will be on the ballot papers, an indication that the candidates are as important as the political parties. Thirdly, Nigerians would seem to have spoken already. They do not want a President who will be slumping at public events, and who may be dependent on medical machines at public expense, rushing into air ambulances and thinking of Germany half of the time. A sickly President can affect the country's fortunes: a President whose survival is an issue with both foreigners and citizens alike can by that fact be a source of vicarious instability. Foreign investors are bound to be careful, not knowing what future awaits the country; there will be more maniacal jostling for power at the top also; while the President is busy taking care of his health, the hawks in Abuja will move in and hijack governance. Those are the ones who would be enthusiastic about having a President who is weak in body and in terms of his political circumstances. Yar'Adua's weakness makes them strong. President Obasanjo had tried to save the situation by Wednesday evening. He was at a political rally and he put a call through to Umar Yar'Adua in Germany. "Umar, how are you? What is your message for Nigerians?" "I am alive and well. It is a false alarm", Yar'Adua declared. It was a farcical show. The President may have allayed our fears about the life of the Presidential aspirant, but he again confirmed the people's worst fears: that the PDP Presidential candidate is not the best of health. Is he now campaigning from Germany? The PDP must bring its season of denial about the health of its flagbearer to an end. The obsession with Yar'Adua's ill-health is becoming an irritable distraction. We should be discussing Yar'Adua's ideas about national development. We are not doing that, we are talking about his kidney and skin. We want to know what he and the PDP are planning to do about power supply, education, the health sector and so on, but what are we discussing (?): whether Yar Adua can breathe properly or not. This is not fair. All things considered, a lot is expected from Governor Yar'Adua himself. He is his own best "doctor". He must know how he feels within his own bones. He may accuse the media of exaggeration, but it is up to him to make a honourable choice, even if that means withdrawing from the race. It is however sad and a comment on the status of healthcare in Nigeria, that the Presidential candidate of the ruling party had to be rushed to Germany before he could be sure of quality medical attention. If our hospitals were better equipped, if all the money voted for the health sector in the past eight years had been well spent, there would be no need for Nigerian leaders to seek help in other countries. Many Nigerians die daily from ailments that are not as serious as Umar Yar'Adua's...And please when he returns (may the Lord help him), let him not talk about 12 straight sets of squash...
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