“NIGERIA: The Truth” - A book Review By Remi Oyeyemi “Give the Yoruba man his sense of place in his Oduduwa region in the West. Give him absolute freedom to operate within his domain… Give the Ibo man his Biafra in his enclave and leave him to plan and develop himself… The Tangale, the Mumuyes, the Kara-kares, the Bekwaras wish to be known and given recognition.”
“But by naming the last street to the Atlantic Ocean, Ahmadu Bello Way, the Northerner is happy that, symbolically, the Koran under the hegemony of Uthman Dan Fodio and his acolytes, has now been dipped into the sea.”
“If the communities of the Niger Delta take over their resources wholly like the groundnut and cocoa farmers, they would be able to drill and prospect for oil themselves. They would know exactly how many barrels of oil is (sic) flowing out of their territory. One day when the oil wells suddenly go dry, children of this area would ask why their parents were so stupid to allow foreigners aided by non- Niger-Deltans to exploit the area and abscond with the oil spoils.”
- Quotes from the book “Nigeria: The Truth” by Daniel Agbowu
The Northern part of Nigeria has less than 30% of the total Nigerian population. Over 70 % of the human beings in Nigeria live in the South! And, wait for it, the Yoruba is the largest single ethnic population in Nigeria. The Ibo is more than the Hausa Fulani in population. The Niger Delta area put together in population is more than the entire Hausa/Fulani. The Hausa/Fulani is the smallest majority population in Nigeria after the Yoruba and Ibo in that order. These are the major deductions of the above titled book.
{mosgoogle}Before anyone will begin to shout “blue murder,” it is important for the readers to understand that this was one of the reasons why this writer will begin to read a book and was unable to put it down for a minute!
And believe me, it has been a very long time since I have had to read a book non-stop from beginning to the end. Given the challenges of daily survival in the United States of America, one could hardly afford this luxury. Nevertheless, on March 11, 2007, I find myself going through this exercise, unable to pay attention to anything else. Even my beautiful wife could not but noticed and actually verbalized her concerns.
I got my copy of the book “NIGERIA: THE TRUTH” earlier that day. I decided to begin reading and found myself unable to stop until I have read all the 316 pages. Often, Engineers usually do not write powerful political books, but without doubt, Engineer Daniel Oritsejoghanyomi Agbowu achieved this feat in his book.
The book is very explosive and I am very sure it will generate a lot of interest from genuine intellectual and political leaders of various ethnic groups of Nigeria. It will help the present stakeholders of the grounded Nigerian nation discover that the cocoon of falsehood with which Nigerian has been wrapped captive is not as thick as they imagined.
The book dealt with three most controversial issues of Census, Revenue Allocations and Elections. These issues represent the template for progress or retrogression of Nigeria. Census because it determines the holding of political power via representation delineation; Elections because it is the process through which political power is consummated; and Revenue Allocation because its parameters for distribution is determined by political power. Obviously, the Census issue is the most germane and important because it seems, every other issue about the fate of the Nigerian State rests on it.
The Author himself made this much clearer on Page 65 to 66,
“...it is not just a matter of numbers, …it is how the census figures have been and are still being utilized as a basis for revenue allocation, electoral representation and allocation of social amenities e.g. water, electricity, roads education among the federating states that is the crux of the matter. Hence the question of how many we really are per tribe and per nationality is fundamental to the continued existence of Nigeria as a country.”
The Author began by expressing his curiosity about “coincidence of numbers.” By merely providing the numbers to his readers, one begins to see premeditated fraud written all over the facets of the Nigerian nation. For example, have a look at this:
North East West Mid-West
Census 1952/53 55.4% 23.7% 16% 4.9%
Census 1963 53.5% 22.3% 19.6% 4.6%
Census 1991 53.4% 21.3% 19.8% 5.3%
State Creation 54.1% 24.3% 16.2% 5.4%
Local Govt Creation 54.1% 22.6% 17.7% 5.6%
Fed House of Rep. 53% 27.6% 16.7% 5.3%
Senate Members 53.2% 24.8% 16.5% 5.5%
Presidential Electoral
Votes 1999 52.5% 24.2% 18.3% 5.0%
Rev. Allocation to LGs
Jan-Sept 2001 55.3% 21.6% 17.6% 5.5%
If you do an average of these numbers, the North has 54.1% of the Censuses. The states created in the North make 54.1% of the 37 states (including Abuja). Similarly, Local Governments in the North (419) represents 54.1% of the total 774.
Other self-explanatory tables follow all through the first chapter. There is the breakdown of Federal Revenue Allocation to States and Local Governments; A comparison of Statutory Allocation to the 9 Oil Producing States and the 20 Northern States and a Table showing Ecology Funds Disbursement
The Author proceeded to give a brief History of the three “majority nations” in Nigeria (i.e. the Yoruba Nation, the Ibo Nation and the Hausa/Fulani Nation) because according to the Author it will “enlighten the general public about the lies and intrigues that surround the birth and existence of Nigeria.”
The Author in Chapter 5 addressed the most important contribution of the book by asking “How many Nigerians?” He rummaged through history of censuses in Nigerian from 1931 to 1991and the attendant controversies that only a copy of the book can clearly illuminate. His critical analysis of the numbers produced by the Censuses was where the juice is. The Author’s analysis showed the following:
a) That there is disparity in the internal growth of the four main regions of Nigeria (i.e. North, West, East and Mid West).
b) That despite this disparity, the “proportional representation” is “preserved consistently throughout the 60-year period, i.e. the Northern Region at about 55% of Nigeria’s population, the Western Region at about 19%, the Mid-West at about 5% and the Eastern Region at about 22%.”
c) That the mathematical accuracy that maintains this kind of equation “defies all logic” d) That the Census result over this period is not justifiable and it is at variance with acceptable demographic variables on the West African Coast.
To elucidate the last conclusion the Author wrote:
“…I find it incredible that Northern Nigeria would have a population of 48 million in 1991, compare to Chad and Niger, with 9.3 and 7.1 million respectively in 1998. The land areas of the Chad and the Republic of Niger are bigger than that of the total land area of Nigeria...”
The Author followed up with a scientific “Tests of Validity” of all the Census figures in the Seventh Chapter using three indices, which must satisfy three tests. The tests include TRANSPARENCY, INDEPENDENCE and CREDIBILITY. According to the Author, “These indices correlate not only with population in absolute terms, but also measure the level of economic activity, and the vitality of social interactions; they also hint at the rate of growth of the population as well as measure the degree of urbanization in the respective areas.”
The indices are Vehicle Registration Data, Population of School leavers and Electricity consumption (as consumed by individual metered household). Engineer Agbowu believed that they “do not individually or collectively serve as replacement for a total headcount; but cumulatively they are social and economic data, recorded in the course of our national life, with no relationship to national census and the political burden that it carries..”
What the Validity Tests revealed is amazing. It showed that 70% of the total school leavers came from the South while 30 % came from the North. It showed that 29.3% of the vehicles plying Nigerian roads are in the Northern States while 70.7% ply the roads of the Southern States. It also showed and that 25.43% of all NEPA consumer households are in the Northern States (excluding Kwara but including Abuja) while 74.57% of them are found in the Southern States. This was despite the fact that the Northern States have taken in an average of 55% of the national revenue allocated over a period of almost three decades.
The Author, using his empirical indices in the scientific validity tests came up with “Realistic Projected Population” of the major ethnic groups in Nigeria. With his projection, the Yoruba people of Nigeria numbered 49.03 million in the year 1998, which will make them the single largest ethnic group in Nigeria. This figure only represents Ekiti, Ogun, Lagos, Ondo, Osun and Oyo States. Kwara and Kogi States regarded, as Yoruba States are not included in this calculation. The Ibo people living in Abia, Anambra, Enugu, Imo and Ebonyi States numbered 17.74 million in 1998. The Hausa/Fulani States of Nigeria, which include Bauchi, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara had 16.22 million people in 1998. The Niger Delta States of Akwa- Ibom, Bayelsa, Rivers, Cross – Rivers, Edo and Delta in 1998 had a population of 19.7 million.
The Author on Page 179 revealed the injustice and unfairness of the revenue allocation resulting from this population fraud committed on Nigeria when he wrote inter alia:
“From my study, I know that Lagos State has 521,137 vehicles and in Jigawa there are only 11,373 as at June 1998. If the taxes of both states were pooled and then shared at a prescribed ratio, definitely Lagos will lose out. As it is now, the Southern States have 1,131,972 cars and the whole North has 470,140 cars. The taxes on fuel for the whole country is put into pooled fund and shared. The North collects 54% of this tax, the East about 22%, the West about 18% and Mid-West 5%.”
Engineer Agbowu then went on memory lane: “When the British was creating self government in the regions, it specifically disbursed the money it had saved for each pf the three regions – West, East and the North. The amount saved was 74 million pounds. She did not give out the money to each region by a prescribed ratio, but what was saved for each region of the country. The West received 34 million pounds, North 24 million pounds and the East 15 million pounds. The Marketing Board was like our Central Bank then. Each region has its own account with the Board.”
Through this unfair revenue allocation, the Yoruba people have lost more than any ethnic group. In 25 years, through Statutory Revenue Allocation to Local Governments, the Yoruba States have lost over 2.027 Trillion naira. Remember this is just for Local Governments. If one calculates what the Yoruba States have lost through States Allocations, the Author contends that the figures would be “staggering.” The book, however, provides the reader with the instruments to be able to do the calculation.
According to the Author, it was Olusegun Obasanjo and his hatchet man, Professor Aboyade that nailed the financial coffins of the Southern States prepared by Murtala Mohammed to assuage the Northern States. This was through the Aboyade Technical Commission, which recommended the removal of the remaining 20% of the rents and royalties enjoyed by the Niger Delta after Murtala Mohammed had initially slashed it from 45% without any protest from the people of the Niger Delta in 1975.
The Author believes that the Nigerian Military was carrying out the Northern Agenda to loot the resources of the South. He believes that this was what they could not do through the civilian regime because of the possibility of public rancour and outcry. He expressed the belief that the state creation propensity of the Military deliberately aimed at political domination and resources appropriation. He notes, “… the foundation of Nigeria was based on falsehood and the creators of these states know that the population figures can be allocated to these states created, for them to achieve their goals.”
The Author believes that each nation within the country be allowed to be autonomous in managing its own socio-economic and political affairs. He believes there should not be any common purse. He believes that Nigeria can be stronger if the components are stronger with each nation having its own financial structures and taxes and development plans. He believes that the center had to be weak. The Author came short of calling for the break up of Nigeria. It is obvious that he wants all the nations to be cohesive based on cultural affinity and language, before coming together at the federal level.
There is a lot of explosive information in this book. Some of them we know before now but never paid attention to. Some of them entirely new and would be refreshing even to those who pride themselves as knowledgeable in current affairs. However, justice cannot be done to them in this small effort. It is the main reason why every one should go and get a copy. The book is a good piece of work. Printed in a very readable font, it is clear and neat. Except for a couple of spelling mistakes, the publisher did a good editing job. One must commend the Author for the depth of research and scientific analysis. The figures are very captivating as the above extracted numbers show. However, no one can really savour the beauty of the book unless each and everyone go to get a copy via www.nigeriathetruth.com. And read it.
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Posted by Robot| 25.03.2007 11:29