ONE of my favourite jokes when libation is poured is an invitation to go easy because the earth seems to soak up so much alcohol the ancestors are too tipsy to watch out for Africa's children. When Youweri Museveni was declared elected to another term as President of Uganda, I was sure soporific effect of the alcohol had sent the ancestors off their guard into slumber deep enough that Africa could be re-colonised on their watch. Poor ancestors they must have much to agonise about as they observe Africa's travail.

More seriously, the continuation of Museveni in office after 20 years created for me a frightful sense of dŽjˆ vu. I could not but remember Mugabe. When in the late 1970s and early 80s I lived in the United States as a graduate student, it was a season to be ashamed of to be African. Idi Amin was in charge in Uganda, several others of equally tarnished pedigree held sway elsewhere on the continent and Afropessimism was well under way. It was in such a season that a new leader from Zimbabwe appeared on the Sunday Morning news shows.

He was bright, monstrously articulate and focused. What redemption to the African reputation. Some of us walked around feeling 100 feet tall. Between 1983 and 1985, I visited Harare several times, enjoying how the blooming Jacarandas made the city seem like a peacock in full glow. Last November I stepped unto the soil of Zimbabwe again. After a quarter of a century in office this hero of yesterday had left his country in ruins, a ghost of the dream of yesteryears. I wondered if Uganda would not end up the same way.

Overstaying in office is a temptation for most mortals. It may come from genuine conviction that all of one's good work could be ruined by successors, from share egocentrism, or even for more devious reasons, including not knowing how to get off the back of a tiger without ending up in its belly. Whatever the motives, history suggests that such leaders as leave as victims wounded, under-performing countries and the anger of history's evaluation of their tenure. Even in mature democracies the tendency is high. Margaret Thatcher rescued Britain from itself and the self-destruction of the post-war collectivist tradition. Entering a third term she found her times tarred by an inglorious exit through the long knives of a palace coup. That has diminished her past Downing Street life. Tony Blair runs the same risk.

I have come to the view that when leaders stay around longer than their welcome the investment they have made over the years to sustain power, become obstacles, and hold progress hostage. Museveni was much celebrated for arresting the spread of HIV/AIDS in Uganda and for much economic reform. Like the Mugabe story he may yet be Uganda's ruin. It is worse when rules like the grand norm, the constitution, are fair game in the desire to extend tenure. Even with the best intentions these tinkering with rules affect the DNA of the social contract, with damaging consequences for institutions which ensure sustainable progress.

The trend is on around the continent. The pathetic excuse for it is the claim that East Asia's "miracle economies" had long serving leaders. That lame explanation is probably why Malaysian Economist K. S Jomo wrote a book titled East Asia's Misunderstood Miracle. How, for example, do you explain Thailand, with a coup every 18 months, in those days, growing just as well as next door Malaysia with long serving leader? It would seem that elite consensus, not tenure of a leader was more responsible for progress, alongside a variety of factors. No one single factor explains rapid economic growth, anyway. But we live in the times of Growth talk as apologetics of power.

Instructive for why long serving leaders ruin their legacy is a comment about Mugabe from 2003. It was Good Shepherd Sunday in the spring of that year. I was in London and had gone to the Westminster Cathedral for Mass. The surprise celebrant was an African bishop who was introduced with much gusto by the Administrator of the Cathedral. Archbishop Pius Mkpumbe of Bulawayo. Given his reputation as an opponent of Mugabe, I waited for a fire and brimstone homily but he did not mention Zimbabwe in his sermon, giving instead a very pius talk on the Good Shepherd that left the impression of being before a very holy man. When at the conclusion he was again toasted by the Administrator he said softly that he was a simple village boy that tries to do his duty and asked for prayers for his country.

Referring to Mugabe, he said that sometimes leaders start out well and maybe well intentioned but they stay around for so long they begin to make costly errors. I could only imagine the errors of those that do not start out well.

If this trend persists, Africa could be falling farther and farther behind in a globalised world with the little patience for laggards. Africa's re-colonisation cannot be ruled out, if Afro-pessimism comes back with great strength. This is why the fight for the soul of Africa by reforming its leadership ethos is an epic one from which all who shy away will receive history's contempt.

Prof Utomi is of the Lagos Business School, Pan African University.

Robot  Villager

# 1 ONE of my favourite jokes when libation is poured is an invitation to go easy because the earth seems to soak up so much alcohol the ancestors are too tipsy to watch out for Africa's children. When Youweri Museveni was declared elected to another term as President of Uganda, I was sure soporific effect of the alcohol had sent the ancestors off their guard into slumber deep enough that Africa could be re-colonised on their watch. Poor ancestors they must have much to agonise about as they observe Africa's travail. ...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 15.03.2006 01:41

Abraxas  Villager

# 2 Dear Professor Pat Utomi: If indeed sometimes some so-called leaders start out well, and maybe, were even initially well-intentioned, but frequently end up staying around for too long, so much so that they end up to making costly errors. If indeed the “sit-tight” syndrome persists in Africa, resulting in Africans falling farther and farther behind in a globalised world, thereby making Africa's re-colonisation unavoidable. If really Afro-pessimism comes back with a big bang, and the fight for the soul of Africa by reforming its leadership ethos is an epic one from which all who shy away will receive history's contempt ….blah, blah, blah, …. WHY DON’T YOU TELL IT LIKE IT IS: STRAIGHT TO THE POINT AND DIRECTLY TO BABA GBENGA (General Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria), INSTEAD OF BEATING ABOUT THE BUSH? The circumlocution is torturously tasteless, and patronising in its paternalism, to say the very least. All you needed to say was: OBJ, GO! Simple! Don Juan Carlos Abraxas (III) Posted by Abraxas| 15.03.2006 02:48

pappilo  Villager

# 3 Abraxas you are right. As I read the piece and up till the last line, I expected to see that OBJ mentioned but that wasnt to be the case. This forum is called nigeriavillagesquare and although i am not saying that we are not interested in the affairs of our neighbours on the continent. We need people to stop beating round the bush and go straight to the point. The problems and issues raised in the piece directly affect our country so there would have been no better way but to use the country as an example as well. I respect pat utomi knowing he is an academic and all but i am beginning to worry that a lot of our well respected people like himself may have been forced to keep quiet by a visit from the EFCC. abi i lie? EFCC na the new machinery to make sure say people comport themselves. Posted by pappilo| 15.03.2006 04:10

Frank

# 4 Abrax, You are very wicked! Haba! You should know where Dr. Utomi is coming from. Like my Ohaneze brother Prof Irukwu, he cannot directly tell OBJ to go. The national dailies will come out with screaming headlines then what happens? Utomi is operating a bank and a private university. Abrax their licenses can easily be withdrawn! EFCC may even exhume some 20 year old documents just to show that Dr. Utomi is not the saint he pretends to be. So please leave broda Pat alone! Posted by Frank| 15.03.2006 05:42

Akinbola  Villager

# 5 Abraxas, For once i am going to reason with you. A respected man like Pat Utomi is even afraid to hit the nail on the head! Why is he afraid or who is he afraid of? Na wah oo. Posted by Akinbola| 15.03.2006 09:32

Tosan

# 6 My dear Pat, I'm sick and tired of guys like you coming up on the newspapers/internet to see the specs in other people's eyes while neglecting the huge logs in your eyes. The last time you were in public service, there was nothing to show for it. Well....some of my friends even argued in your favor that you were too young at that time (1979)....a fresh graduate with no experience but a big connection. But I said and still say nonsense! It's not how old but how well-grounded in practical terms that matters. Our nation, as it was run then, would always ignore experienced technocrats (with no connection) to give sensitive positions to young "whiz kids" with no experience (but some nice connections). After the exposure with Shagari govt, you were also given another opportunity to prove yourself (now, how many people have the opportunity of a second chance?). You were appointed as the Deputy M.D. of Volkswagon.....passing you over several highly experienced individuals. But what happened? Under your watch, the company was run aground! The next thing we started seeing was that you joined the club of priviledged individuals who "have arrived". The tragedy of our nation's past is that there are many guys like you who, with no record of inheriting some great family wealth or winning lottery or even backed with many YEARS of service at some top positions, would suddenly "arrive" with tons of money and, of course, fame. First, there was Lagos Business School and then there were and still are various investments in banks and other industries.....uhm!!! And trust our people, they really don't care about any one's source of wealth. What matters to them is that you're rich or wealthy....and they will start singing your praise to high heavens. For your info, while in private discussions, my close friends (those jerks) will always defend you, taunting me that I'm just being envious of you. Well, I guess they are partly right. I often find myself envying guys like who, though around the same age like me, got to where they are because of the "Nigerian factor" while I had to really struggle all the way from the ever impoverished Warri to Lagos and all that.....God dey! But maybe, I wouldn't have had to mind all your sweet opportunities and priviledges if you didn't have to often add insult upon injury. Guys like you are in the habit of acting as if you are Mr. Know-all, sitting on some high horses, getting self-righteous, criticizing everyone but yourself and all the time launching into theories about our nation's political, economic and social landscape. God dey oh! Posted by Tosan| 15.03.2006 14:33

busangax

# 7 Pat, Pat- This guy can speak tongue in cheek. You don't need to go to far Uganda to find a self perpetuating leader nah! Enh, pat? You are smarter than this abeg- tell OBJ to vacate- simple and straight. I dey feel ur style sha. Anyday Posted by busangax| 15.03.2006 15:50

emj  Villager

# 8 Dear pat, I believe what you were trying to say is time up to Baba iyabo and his kitchen cabinet. You don't need to be in anguish to call a spade a spade. I expected the same frankness you put in discussions in your Tv programme, Patito's gang from your write up. Anyway the fear of Efcc and Nuc is the beginning of wisdom. Posted by emj| 15.03.2006 17:53

Soji

# 9 Dr Pat Utomi is an academic and in the article above he put forward his own intellectual two-cents on the issue of self-perpetuation by african presidents; I believe that it is left unto the reader to form his own thought and opinion after reading the piece. In the case of Nigeria, I think that we're too used to wanting to hear somebody else's blunt bread-and-butter opinion to an issue rather than allowing them to propose their thoughts and then having us make our own decision based on that. Dr Pat is not a politician and I would think that he wouldn't and shouldn't have to succumb to our possibly unrealistic expectation of wanting to hear him make blunt statements that might let the dogs loose on him, especially in a country like ours. He seems to be a smart man with a guarded tongue. I like his wisdom, he portends quick perception and tactful, wise speaking. Posted by Soji| 16.03.2006 20:29

Ade  Villager

# 10 It is quite alarming that readers often choose to respond arbitrarily to comments or statements in an article without understanding the theme of the article. My advice is that you should read an article and let your jugdement do the rest. As Soji pointed out, it is about self-perpetuation as practised by our so-called leaders in Africa, and why these leaders often choose to do so. OBJ wouldn't dare stay beyond 2007 ! This is Nigeria, not a banana republic. But what is even more puzzling is that up till now credible individuals haven't come forward as potential aspirants for the opposition parties. Is this an indication that there are no credible Nigerians willing to take a shot at leading the country, or maybe everyone has skeletons in his/her cupboard? Imagine this, assume that Marwa would contest and win the election in 2007. Yes, Marwa, the new president! But honestly, you wouldn't want that to happen, would you? No matter what, EFCC has been doing a good job of shooting potential thieving-presidents in the leg and let it continue to do so. If EFCC boss was bold enough to state that Babangida cannot "ruin" Nigeria further, then I believe that there is a grand design in play, which majority of Nigerians are not seeing or are simply ignoring. That someone or some people with authority has decided that no thieving person would lead this country again. Imagine, a person like Orji Kalu, wanting to preside over Nigeria. Then dooms-day is here! Where are the likes of Emeka Anyaoku, if being a Easterner is all it take to be president. That would have been an icing on the cake. To have a brilliant and credible fellow to lead the country. So, until credible aspirants (except Buhari) from the opposition parties come forward, let EFCC continue to do the "cleaners" job. I am holding to my belief that Obasanjo is up to something except a third term. The only problem is that Nigerians would prefer a leader that would lie through his smiling teeth. Remember, 1984 -85, almost everyone (including my aunt) was screaming that the pair of Idiagbon-Buhari were too tough. Here we are today. And finally, don't you think it is time we Nija youths should start fighting for what belong to us no matter the geographical region we are from. The guy from Warri, I feel your pain. Over ten years ago, after watching a documentary on NTA-2 Channel 5 on biological ways to clean oil-polluted sites, I decided to leave Nigeria to learn how to do this knowing that Nigeria has that kind of problem, but now am stuck in the west simply because every where is in flame back home. So, we youths are big looser. Posted by Ade| 17.03.2006 21:01