I will begin this essay by observing that I am not in the least motivated to help America win its war in Iraq . I have no investment in her winning that war. In fact, before that war began I wrote an opinion piece and submitted it to a major newspaper in Washington D.C. and it did not publish it. But guess what, it incorporated my ideas into its editorial on the war! That thought me the lesson of how White America works: tell the world that Black Americans are unintelligent but in the meantime steal ideas generated by Black Americans and use them as your own.  I was not inclined to help White America continue been a sociopath by giving them ideas that they refuse to acknowledge, so I kept quiet and said to myself: let them self destroy in their foolish war in Iraq.

However, the incessant noise that if America withdraws from Iraq that chaos would reign in the land has gotten to me.  I say to myself: these fools are at it again; they are once again on delusion of self-importance.  For Christ sake, don’t they study history?  Must they always talk rubbish?  Let us see.

Did Chaos reign in Iraq before they intervened in Iraq ? Was Iraq in flames before George Bush injected his troops in Iraq ? The answer, of course, is no.  If so, what makes these people believe that if they left that chaos would reign in Iraq ?   Delusion of their importance and other peoples' need of them? 

In case these people have not learned this lesson by now, let me tell it to them. It is the presence of Americans in Iraq that has produced chaos in Iraq . If you remove Americans from Iraq chaos would not reign in Iraq .

Now suppose that Americans were to leave, would democracy come to Iraq ?  Let us see what exists in the Arab world. In practically all Arab countries, usually a strong man (an Emir, Sheik, Sultan, Caliph etc) emerges by using iron fist to get his people to accept his rule and obey him.  He cuts the throats of those who disobey him and in time intimidates the population to accept his rule.

Terrorism has always worked in the Arab world. Most Arab countries are ruled by a terrorist gang that uses terror to intimidate the populace to accept its rule. As long as Arab strong men are willing to exercise brutal force on their people, peace and order reign in their land. This is how it is in Syria , Jordan , Saudi Arabia , Yemen , The United Arab Emirates, Dubai , Kuwait , Egypt , Libya , Tunisia , Algeria and Morocco . The Arab world has a pattern of governance whereby a strong family intimidates the people into obeying them. Saddam Hussein did the same thing in Iraq and maintained a Carthaginian peace in Iraq .

If the Americans were to leave Iraq today, for a while, say a year or two, Iraqis would probably slaughter themselves and the best cut throat of them all would emerge as the new leader and use terror to intimidate the people to accept his rule. This is the mode of governance in the Arab world and would probably continue to be so in the near future. (Western democracy is a result of thousands of years of social discourse and gradual social transformation…from Italian renaissance to religious reformation to age of rationalism/enlightenment, age of romanticism or backlash against reason, English industrialization, urbanization etc.  It all began in Greece , twenty-five hundred years ago, Socrates, Plato and Aristotle, and gradually permeated and transformed Western culture and psyche. Arabs have not gone through similar discourse; they have not even begun the necessary secularization of their more or less theocratic society, a precondition for democracy. The Arab culture and psyche expects the rule of strong men. You cannot change their culture and minds in a generation.)

If Americans left Iraq chaos would not reign forever in Iraq . Iraq would simply continue to be governed as other Arab countries are governed. The additional benefit from the removal of Americans is that the cut throat that would eventually emerge to rule Iraq would not have killed as many persons as the Americans have caused to be killed in Iraq in their four years misadventure in Iraq . America has caused the death of upwards of over 100, 000 Iraqis. Saddam Hussein did not kill that many Iraqis in his twenty five year dictatorship. The new Iraqi cut throat (leader) of Iraq probably would not kill more than a few thousand Iraqis before he intimidates other Iraqis to accept his rule and go about the business of making their living, as Arabs have always done, as an intimidated people.

We should remember that what is now called Iraq was not always one country. Iraq resulted from three former provinces of the Ottoman Empire:   Mosul (Kurds), Bagdad (Sunni) and Basra (Shii). During the First World War Britain and her allies defeated Turkey and appropriated her territories.  Britain took over what is now called Iraq and put the three provinces into one country. This was a mistake.

The British, for administrative convenience, were always making the mistake of putting disparate peoples into one country (as they did in Nigeria by placing Hausas, Yorubas and Igbos into one country and thereby creating an intractable disaster…there would never be democracy in Nigeria as long as these culturally different groups coexist in one country; some groups must always rig elections to perpetuate themselves in power, as they just did in last months so-called election). 

A mistake is to be corrected. One correction is to split Iraq into its original three regions and let each region govern itself.  The three regions may subsequently choose a loose federation (confederation) but they ought to have separate governments. 

Actually, if you split Iraq into three semi autonomous regions the chances of having democracy in the Kurd region increases.  However, the two ensuing Arab regions: Sunni Central Region (Bagdad) and Shii South ( Basra ), given Arab political culture, would probably be ruled by strong families.

If you want to intervene in a country, for God’s sake take the time to study that country’s history and political culture. But some arrogant Americans feel too self-important to study other peoples' history and are too ignorant to know what to do when they are caught in their no-win situation in Iraq . 

If Americans left Iraq there would be no chaos in Iraq ; there would be a return to the status ante of Arab governance (with a brief period of anarchy during which power is reshuffled before a strong man emerges). The probability of the much ballyhooed democracy (Mr. Bush’s current expressed reason for being in Iraq , before it was to remove non-existent weapons of mass destruction) in Iraq is zero. Why so?

Consider that since the advent of Mohammed (570-622 AD) and his Islam in the seventh century, Arab countries have not known democracy; they have only known authoritarian rule by strong families. That is fourteen hundred years of dictatorship. This history is not going to be changed by the intervention of bumbling Americans who know zilch about Arab history and culture. 

So, I say, let Americans leave Iraq , now.  But them again, as I said before, I am not particularly motivated to help America . In fact, cynicism urges me to leave Americans to stay in Iraq decades and bleed their economy red.

If Americans devote most of their resources to a lost course, they would have less money to engage in scientific research. In the meantime, other countries would be spending their money modernizing their economies. When, finally, Americans wake up and return to their senses they would realize that they are no longer the unchallenged economic colossus of the world. And if they are not an economic superpower they would not be able to sustain their military juggernaut. China is already rising and would probably challenge America ’s sole leadership of the world in the not too distant future.

However, I must confess that I have some sentimental attachment to America and do not wish her ill. America still serves some positive function for the world. We must, therefore, help America serve her best interests rather than self destroy in a senseless war of choice.

America should get out of Iraq , now.  America should fight the necessary war on terror differently.

Iraq would not dissolve into chaos if Americans left. Of course, if the idea is to have access to Iraqi oil then let Americans stay in Iraq . But given the chaos America ’s presence has created in Iraq , one wonders if America is really tapping that oil?

Common sense tells one that America should not have gone to Iraq and now that she made the mistake of going there that it is time she left.

Ozodi Thomas Osuji, PhD

May 11, 2007

Dr Osuji can be reached at ozodiosuji@gmail.com

Robot  Villager

# 1 var sbtitle6046=encodeURIComponent(WOULD CHAOS...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 11.05.2007 13:47

Mikky jaga  Villager

# 2 As interesting and as accurate as your analysis is, you failed to consider the response of neighbouring Arab countries to the withdrawal of America from Iraq. These countries will just turn the country to a battle front, which would result in the gratest disaster that that part of the world has ever witnessed. America had its chance of withdrawing from Iraq, with a loss of face, but leaving Iraq as a Nation with a semblance of a strong central government, by restoring Saddam Hussein back to power, saying he was not as dangerous as they had initially thought. But, they rather hanged the man. The puppet government they are propping up in Iraq today, cannot last one week without American soldiers guarding them day and night. The only option left for America is to withdraw from Iraq and hope that something good may come out of the confusion that would eventually result. If in the end, more problems are created in Iraq than they are able to solve, they have only themselves to blame for their arrogance. This may well be the beginning of the end of the Great America. Posted by Mikky jaga| 12.05.2007 07:20

Frisky Larr  Villager

# 3 That was a very brilliant complementation by Mikky Jagga. I was so pleased to read that article by my compatriot. I never thought there are Nigerians in the USA, who were also able to see the truth about George Bush's lies in Iraq in the face of that overwhelming spate of nationalist strings attached to the invasion. In fact, Nigerians were and are even more vocal in defending anything American (right or wrong)! Mikky Jagga rightly pointed out that the most honorable thing would have been a quick reinstallation of Saddam Husseyn before things went too bad. But that would have been as unrealistic as walking through a needle's eye. At worst, I thought George Bush would have flown Saddam to the USA out of magnanimity to stop him from being lynched as he finally was. That was the least he could have done for the horrendous crime committed on that country. That too, was too much for a God-sent President of the United States. Today, the chaos in Iraq is abandoned to its open-ended fate. Posted by Frisky Larr| 12.05.2007 08:16

oluye  Villager

# 4 Well written and frank. There are serious lessons for Nigeria to learn in the case of Iraq. We do not only divide along ethnic lines but also along religious lines. Maybe Yorubas being Christians and Muslims has been our saving grace. I want to impress it upon those who are in a position to do something about it that we must seriously reconsider the terms of our governance. This article has pointed out that we are indeed unique- different from the West and different from the East- our governance style must settle somewhere in between. It is for this reason that I am particularly interested in the developments within the PDP. We may ridicule it, call it uncivilized but selective election is a mixture of autocracy and democracy. Imagine if key positions are rotated between our geopolitical zones, those political zones then present us with their candidates, selected among them. The rest of the country then decides among those choices by ballot, the ballot paper also giving us an opportunity to reject all of them by voting "none of the above." There are no political parties, only zonal political associations. Campaign funding and opportunities are equally provided to all candidates by the government. With such an arrangement, if Ndigbo presents the likes of Utomi and others for an elective post, he stands a very tall chance. If the selection process will have any fallout, it will be within the zone not at the national level. Ours will simply be the task of choosing who we think will favour the common interest. As long as it is well with Nigeria. Posted by oluye| 12.05.2007 15:44

oluye  Villager

# 5 This is a reaction to "WHAT I TAKE FROM CHRISTIANITY" Ozodi wrote, "Dreams are not real. When the sleeper wakes up he recognizes that at no time did the world of dreams he had believed was real in fact exist. But as long as he sleeps what he sees in his sleep seems real to him." I do not question your perspective or the analytical tool you employed. But reasoning along with you, if indeed we are all asleep and merely dreaming, what is the purpose of our sleep? Could it be so that through the controlled, experimental world of dreams we can face challenges and our reactions to such challenges can then be assessed? Is this a test, prerequisite to a real opportunity to live, truly exist? If you see it this way, then it becomes obvious that the Christian viewpoint of judgment, resurrection of all, eternal life, heaven(chance to truly live) and hell(to be discarded as unfit to live) are right after all. It all a matter semantics and the parables you choose to use in explaining it. Mark you, there will be a reckoning of it all. If that be the case, we had better take it as a world that is as real as it can be. Posted by oluye| 13.05.2007 20:04

Jah Guda  Villager

# 6 Al Qaeda is waiting and praying that America pulls out of Iraq so they can have a state of their own. This has always been their dream and acts as a driving force. If America pulls out of Iraq, Al Qaeda will overwhelm the Iraqi security forces; with no more Drones, Helicopters or Fighter Jets in the arena, Al Qaeda will fight for and successfully hold a substantial part of Iraq. It’s a right mess; hence Tony Blair decided to step down next month. America will have to remain in Iraq for quite a while; they shouldn’t have invaded in the first place, Bin Laden and his cohorts baited George Bush, he swallowed it hook, line and sinker. He has got no other choice but to stay in Iraq and manage the barbarism he brought upon the Iraqis. If they leave Al Qaeda will export the Barbarism to Iraq’s neighbours, EU & US. There is no military solution in Iraq, America has to stay to ensure the war does not spread to other Countries and at the same time bring in nations who are capable of dealing with the situation without resorting to bombs & guns. Posted by Jah Guda| 16.05.2007 12:44