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Courtesy of The News online
The National Population Commi...Read the full article.

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Brilliant. Good development. The staus quo ante has been confirmed. All the previous population figures including IBB's 88.8 million were all really correct wrt regions, states, ethnic and religious considerations. It is just that this latest figures took advantage of population growth since then. So RIP to all conspiracy theories. Nigerian ingenuity coupled with technological wizardry has given us the true position of affairs with regards to our population.
Now time for fiscal federalism and proper resource control and allocation. Those who won in the population contest should now account for what they contribute to the Nigerian commonwealth. These huge numbers should now be transformed to massive revenue generation and high gdp output for the rapid development of Nigeria. They should no longer become liabilities to our commonwealth because huge population is an economic asset. To whom more is given, more is expected in the baking of the national cake. :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :lol: :lol:

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When the news of the release of the national population census first broke late last year, a group of us Nigerians (as usual mostly Igbo, Yoruba, Edo and a few other southern groups) in the Norwegian city of xxxxx discussed the matter heatedly. Our discussion dwelt especially on the need to control the escalating population put at just over 140 million, given that economic growth rate does not match the human growth rate. Not unexpectedly, the discussion veered towards ethnic population figures. But we quickly reminded ourselves that the census did not bother with tribal population numbers. This realisation chagrined some hardliner Igbo amongst us. Being an Igbo, I understood their fears: a vast majority of the Igbo are acknowledged migrants who unfortunately, can’t be there and here simultaneously. At this point we aborted the argument based upon the suggestion of one of us who wanted the state breakdown results before we could engage on that line of discussion. Now that the results have been released, we got together again to consummate the discussion. I was able to record the discussion with a 1 gb IPOD voice recorder and put some of them down on paper later on:

Discussant one (Yoruba):

I think the result of the census is fairly accurate, give or take acceptable margin of error. Let me explain.

First I am not biased. I am a Yoruba from the southwest, but I have had the opportunity of living in virtually all parts of Nigeria. I was born in Abeokuta, had my primary and secondary education in Zaria and Daura; university at OAU, Ile Ife and U.I.; Did my Youth Service in Niger State; Had my professional training in Jos Plateau State; served for nine years in Anambra State; six years in Abuja and three years in Rivers State. I have visited all but three states in Nigeria.

The predominant Islamic religion in the north permits one man four wives compared with half of the south (the old Eastern Region) where the predominant Christian religion allows only one wife to a man. Check the implication over the years in number of children resulting from this major sociological difference and its effect on population.

The north does not spend the fortune southerners spend to train their children so cost of raising a large family is not a disincentive in the north as it is in the south.

The north is not mostly desert as many are wont to claim. The vast middle belt which is part of the north is savannah which is even more pleasing to live than the mangrove of the south and therefore encourage population growth.

The major occupation of northerners is farming. A large family feeds at a cheaper cost compared with the south where white collar jobs and artisanry are more popular than farming.

Many people who feel cattle have to be counted to shore up population in the north have never visited more than a few cities in the north. Many ignorantly believe that Kano is the only densely populated city in Kano State. This is not so.

Anyone who has been in a major northern city and witnesses the multitude as they flow by covering an entire highway for up to an hour after a jumat prayer on Friday will not doubt the population of the north. And that multitude usually consists of only men and a few children. You won't see a single woman among them.

The fact that the gap between the population of the north and the south is not wider than what was observed in the census can be attributed to known geographical and sociological factors canvassed as arguments on why the figures for north and south should be the reverse of what it is.

Bayelsa's figure cannot be disputed. Yenagoa is more like Local Govt Headquarters than State Capital in terms of size and population. Yet it is the most populous town in the state. I have been there. I know Rivers very well. The figure announced for it is fair. Ibadan is mostly every man with his own house- huge number of houses, with comparatively smaller population. Lagos is a small state compared to Kano. That the population is almost the same as Kano is accounted for by the population density in Lagos State.

Finally Nigeria, Geographically expand northwards. Look at the map again. Just like the extreme desert region in the north does not favour inhabitation so does the dense mangrove of the extreme south which is largely swamp and impenetrable forest.

So let us be fair minded even when things do not fit our pre conceived notions. That is the hallmark of an educated person. Abi wetin we go school for?

Discussant two (Bini)

Why are you guys faulting the headcount? I think it is correct. Do you know how many Nigerians are outside of the country? From official statements, there are said to be 17 million Nigerians living abroad. This number does not include Nigerians who are asylum seekers (Nigerian refugees do not disclose they are Nigerians when dealing with officials of the host country) and therefore mostly unaccounted for. This later group can even be more than 1 million in number. Now, do you know that at least 95 % of Nigerians abroad are mostly Igbo, Yoruba and Edo/Delta, especially Igbo and Yoruba? How many northerners, especially Hausa, Fulani and Kanuri have you met abroad. Personally I have only met one, in all my long years of staying in Netherlands, and now in Norway; whereas if you pass 10 Nigerians on the streets of Netherland, 5 will be Igbo, 3 will be Yoruba and the other two will be Edo/Delta. So how do you expect the population of these concerned states not to be negatively affected? Moreover, Igbo in particular are said to be more than one-third of the Lagos population. There are also several millions of Igbo in the North, especially in Kano, Kaduna, plateau and Niger. This will also affect the Igbo states specifically. And this is not to mention the millions of Igbo in Rivers State (by this I mean Igbo from the south east; and not indigenous Igbo of the south south) and in Benin city, my own town. So it is a hard fact we southerners have to live with. It is simply a matter of either remaining in your states and be counted there, or travel out (to other states and help swell the population there; or abroad, not to be counted at all). The north chose to remain largely in their areas. The only northerners you find outside are mostly blind and lame beggars, illiterate security guards (MAIGUARDS), policemen, soldiers and a few shoemakers; and these are just a few 100 thousands. The Igbo cannot be in Lagos, Kano, US, UK, Holland, Germany, Norway, Sweden, China, and wait for this, Mongolia (of all places) etc and expect that not to affect them.

Discussant three (Igbo)

It serves the Igbo right. It was a question of Igbos refusing to ‘‘check’’ back to their villages to be counted. They saw their northern brothers abandoning amawusa (popular Hausa community) in Owerri Imo State, to be counted at their home state. If proper counting was done, it couldn’t have made any difference. Even nowadays, nobody should wait for a blind novice to pull wool over their eyes. We all know that Kano is not exactly half of Lagos population and visa Vis other states in the north compared with those in the south. The catastrophe of this blunder will be immeasurable mismanagement, lopsidedness of infrastructure, lack of better management and planning for the poor and lack of adequate response from the international community. No wonder the Igbo saying that, while the snail is roasting in the fire, it is actually expressing its ability to put off the fire. Sorry Nigeria. Given the effect of this census on the south east, I will say that now is the time for all these millions of Igbo in Lagos, Kano, Abuja, Kaduna, Oyo, Port Harcourt, Jos, etc to make their voice heard. As they have helped to increase the population of their host states to the detriment of your own states, they must ensure that they get equitable treatment as the so-called indigenes. They should use their number as a trade-off, cast their votes wisely, even in the state elections wherever they may be within Nigeria. If Nigeria is supposedly one, nothing stops an Igbo from contesting the gubernatorial election in Lagos, with their millions of people there. In all, there is no doubt that were ethnicity considered in the census, the Igbo still remains the largest SINGLE (not combining Hausa/Fulani as Nigerians normally do) ethnic group in the country.

Discussant four (Igbo)

The north can only be more populated than the south because of migration of southerners. If this were not so, the south would be more populated. I accepted the result based on how many Igbo and Yoruba I have observed living not only in other parts of Nigeria (especially Igbo) but also outside of Nigeria. Nevertheless, the so-called northern large population are just mere human capital of low quality. So even with their large population, they are unproductive and uneducated. Check the JAMB website, you will see that Imo State, with its almost 4M people gets more students admitted into the university more than all the northern states combined. Therefore, Nigeria, especially the north (assuming the figures are accurate) should do something to stem the explosive population. It is particularly important for the north because many of the 75 million people there are beggars, blind, lame, uneducated (Almajiri etc), diseased (the north has the highest polio rate in the world) cerebrospinal meningitis, guinea worm, VVF affecting almost 400 thousand northern Nigerian women, according to the WHO, etc.; unproductive, little or no employment opportunities, hence only civil servants depending on federal govt allocation, abandonment of the exploitation of the solid minerals there and such general unproductive and lazy characteristics. It is not a matter of politics of revenue allocation. It is important that something be done fast to curtail the reproductive rates of the Muslims characteristically with 4 wives per male. The north should ask itself what happens to it should Nigeria break up today, or should the oil exhaust. They should not take the south for granted.

Discussant five (Niger Deltan)

Please guys I urge you to take the result with equanimity. I will speak mainly about Lagos. In the past few years several federal government agencies and international organisations including embassies, moved out of Lagos to Abuja. In the same light, many oil companies moved their headquarters from Lagos to the oil producing states. This led to more opportunities in these states and therefore more people (company workers, contractors, taxi drivers, okada riders, prostitutes, casual labourers, traders) will natural move to such areas. Therefore the population of Lagos has been in dynamism. These movements helped to increase the population of states such as Rivers (number 6 now), Delta, Akwa Ibom and Abuja. Moreover since the Agbara industrial estate became part of Ogun and opened up more, many workers moved from inside Lagos (an example is my own brother and all his co-workers working with NESTLE- maggi and milo makers) many of whom bought plots of land around Agbara, built their own houses and moved there, yet they claim to live in Lagos, given the proximity of Agbara to Lagos. So Lagos is bound to be affected. Moreover, you have to consider the land mass of Kano. Though Kano is not the largest state in terms of land mass, it is definitely much bigger than Lagos. There must therefore be some plausible reasons why it is big in population. One of the reasons is that many northerners who do not/cannot migrate down south tend to move to Kano. In general, Kano is about the only industrial and commercial state in the entire north. I have been there twice and in some markets, you find the crowd as thick as they are in Oshodi and Orile in Lagos, though many of those are Igbos too. But since the census did not consider tribe, indigenes or non-indigenes did not count. You have to ask, what the population of Abuja was before the mass movement of civil servants, contractors, okada riders, politicians, policemen, soldiers, etc to that place from especially Lagos, and compare the effect of that to Abuja’s current population. That could have made a big difference in favour of Lagos, after all Kano is just a few thousands of people more than Lagos. Had revenues been shared by derivation, and not land mass or population, it would not matter to me. If Kano is the largest let them generate the largest internal revenue for their own use. I don’t have a problem with that. But alas, the problem is that revenue is shared based population, so people tend to inflate their population. Also land mass is considered. Revenue should be based on derivation, including VAT. And, if Kano is the largest, why is it that their internal revenue does not show any correspondence with the population? Or is it because of low capacity individuals that dominate the city (Alimajiris and beggars?)

Summary
Overall, it was a healthy debate session, with many opposing positions taken, most of which I cannot post here for lack of space, but suffice to say that the positions of the discussants were very trenchant. To round off, the importance of regulating the population (especially for the Muslims) cannot be overemphasised. The president said that much during his census message to the nation on Tuesday. In my opinion, incentives to achieve this include strengthening the derivation policy and the exploitation of the vast solid mineral resources in the north, so that once again, Nigeria can go back to the era of at least 75 % resource control. Also, the triplet problems of high early child marriage (in the north), low girl-child education and unprogressive cultural and religious practices such as polygamy should be addressed. With regards to population control, with a national (average) annual growth rate of 3.2 %, I am happy that my own state of Abia, together with Edo state, has the lowest growth rate of 2.7 %. Or is it that more Abians and Edos, like Andrew, have ‘‘checked out’’ of their states for the proverbial greener pasture?

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Docockwy,

I agree the debate you summarise was very healthy with indept analysis. But your inclusion of of polygamy as part of non progressive culture is quite debatable.

If polygamy is non progressive (I assume you mean it should be discouraged) what do we do with the teeming population of our over 40's ladies. I will not be willing to go to the alter with a woman at that age and if you will be honest with yourself most men will not be willing to do the same. In that case the only option left to them is 'concubinism'or prostitution and if she is the religious type, a mariage to the Lord.

This is a case of a solution to a problem leading to a debatably more serious problem.

I rest my case.

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Doc Okwy,

Great development. States who were able to manage their population growth should benefit from the gains of such a rational exercise. It is imperative that Nigeria enthrones the principle of population responsibility since population is an asset.
Now great states like Kano and Lagos should show that their population is not mere numbers by contributing their full weight in the baking of the national cake. A situation where small Bayelsa bakes an elephantine cake and is given the share of a mouse while the Nigerian giant, Kano bakes a mere kwose or akara and in return is given the share of a giant by the owners of Nigeria is tantamount to robbing peter to pay paul.
This matter should be addressed immediately so that the problems that have followed Nigeria with the status quo populationwise, can be full redressed. Indeed some states can be I billion like China, but we can see I billion worth of productivity coming from China. It becomes a shame of monumental dimensions when a state parades mere human beings who do not add value to the national commonwealth. Help me with the correct description for such a state in the year of our Lord 2007.
Also you touched on the issue of state of origin. This should also be fully addressed immediately since the population giants derive their numbers from people of other ethnic groups. This highly mobile ethnic group should be enumerated and crowned the true champions of Nigerian nationalism since they can be found in all nook and cranny of Nigeria and not ridiculed from time to time to go home to their ethnic nations when they have attempted to do so before and were visited with genocide. :D :D :D :D :D :D

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That's a very fair ,reasonable and coherent discussion and analysis.It's high time we ,especially,southern Nigerians,stopped making biased submissions without taking relevant socio-economic facts as espoused in this analysis into consideration.The fact that the exercise had come and gone without the rancour and violence that many skeptics and prophets of doom had predicted, is a big plus for the government and the organizers of the census.It further shows that if we are truly determined and mobilized to achieve something important,we can actually live up to such expectations. It is my hope that Nigerians will give same and if not more level of support they gave to the census exercise to the forthcoming general elections so that we can once again prove those Nigerian skeptics and their international collaborators who believe we cannot manage our internal affairs to shame.

Olusola

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Docokwy,

Thank you. I find it very hard that such a well balanced recording and resourceful material could come from you. More grease to your elbow bro., we hope to see more progressive contributions from you.

In addition to the commentaries of other contributors, I will like to say that the most disturbing aspect of revenue sharing in Nigeria is the issue of VAT call it Sales Tax if you like, it's application in Nigeria is like directly robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Sales tax in all progressive economy is a form of State tax. A State that bears the burden of managing big population and commerce should not be deprived of the fruit of its labor by the Federal government. How do you explain collection of VAT in an exploding city like Lagos to develop Jigawa.

Sales tax is inherently a State tax.

I also totally agree that States should be prepared to take responsibility for their population the parasitic tendencies of some part the country should be addressed.

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Docokwy,

Thank you. I find it very hard that such a well balanced recording and resourceful material could come from you. More grease to your elbow bro., we hope to see more progressive contributions from you.

In addition to the commentaries of other contributors, I will like to say that the most disturbing aspect of revenue sharing in Nigeria is the issue of VAT call it Sales Tax if you like, it's application in Nigeria is like directly robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Sales tax in all progressive economy is a form of State tax. A State that bears the burden of managing big population and commerce should not be deprived of the fruit of its labor by the Federal government. How do you explain collection of VAT in an exploding city like Lagos to develop Jigawa.

Sales tax is inherently a State tax.

I also totally agree that States should be prepared to take responsibility for their population the parasitic tendencies of some part the country should be addressed.

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=Tunde meee;148064>Docockwy,

I agree the debate you summarise was very healthy with indept analysis. But your inclusion of of polygamy as part of non progressive culture is quite debatable.

If polygamy is non progressive (I assume you mean it should be discouraged) what do we do with the teeming population of our over 40's ladies. I will not be willing to go to the alter with a woman at that age and if you will be honest with yourself most men will not be willing to do the same. In that case the only option left to them is 'concubinism'or prostitution and if she is the religious type, a mariage to the Lord.

This is a case of a solution to a problem leading to a debatably more serious problem.

I rest my case.

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Tunde meee,

Considering the census figures in which there are about 3 million more men than women, do you think the so-called ''teeming'' ladies of over 40 is not a ruse? Instead, you find now a lot of homosexuals in the north, particularly in Kano. This has been reported severally in the news. So I think women are actually scarce now in the north where one mallam or Alhaji marries 4 women and hides them in his house, away from the prying eyes of single men. Coincidentally, the North now has the bulk (roughly 10 million more than the south) of the population. Though the population figures indicate otherwise, down south you still find women on the streets of the cities, and many of them are young and marriageable. In any case, concubinism and prostitution will always be there, however the sex ratio tilts. Apart from the high migration rate of southerners out of the country, polygamy is another factor giving the North the population advantage. But I do not envy them, given the quality of the human capital there.

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The only thing acceptable about these figures is that they are highly debatable.

It's still not clear why tribe and religion were excluded from the poll but thankfully there are other variables that were included and I think we should wait till we have the breakdown of all the figures before we can do a proper analysis.

I recall that the census poll included questions about LGA of Origin, house type, and household items.

It's not enough to say there a x millions of people in Katsina, you need to also show that there are x millions of houses in Katsina, or do these people live in the sand?

Then there are also the consumption patterns, hitherto all the figures from secondary sources have shown much greater consumption in the South than in the North, fuel consumption, food consumption, mobile phone consumption, healthcare facillities, markets etc etc.
You have 10 million more people in the North yet most of the food grown in the North is shipped down South to be sold. Most of the fuel sent from the South to the North is bunkered across the borders in Borno to be sold in the rest of West Africa.

Docokwy's point about Ibadan and Lagos having many houses in a small space as opposed to the large open spaces of Kano and Jigawa does not suffice.
A place like Lagos Island with all the high rise and multi-tenant buildings there should contain more people than several towns in Jigawa where you would hardly find a street with up to ten bungalows each occupied by one family.
Not to talk of a town like Onitsha where every square foot of land is built up 5 floors high.

If you think there are multitudes pouring out of mosques in Kano, then you should see the crowd every last Friday of the month at Redeemed Camp Lagos?

I cant buy these figures. We need more details before we can really discuss this census.

SBI