World Bank adds Nigeria to countries risking collapse
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A World Bank unit added 14 countries to its list of nations at risk of collapse, including Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer.

The number of so-called fragile states rose to 26 in 2006 from 17 three years ago, the Independent Evaluation Group of the World Bank said in a report released in Singapore today. They now include East Timor, Cambodia and Kosovo. Nigeria was added because of an increase in corruption and deteriorating governance.

“If something new happens in oil-producing states like Angola, it could push up the price of oil,” said Tetsu Emori, the chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures Ltd. in Tokyo.

“A production decline in Nigeria will also affect oil prices although the violence in that country is already priced in.”

The potential failure of countries including Nigeria and Angola, China's biggest oil supplier this year, threatens to boost energy and commodities prices and slow economic growth. Oil has fallen 19 percent since reaching a record $78,40 on July 14.

The group is also concerned that terrorism, drug production and weapon smuggling are spiraling.

“Neglecting the fragile states, half of whom are living in extreme poverty, risks a worsening of their misery,” said Vinod Thomas, the group's director general. That in turn will feed “regional and global instability”.

The group, which reports to the World Bank's board of executive directors rather than President Paul Wolfowitz, defines fragile states as low-income nations that score three or less on a scale of one to six measuring economic policies, social equality and public-sector management.

Angola, the world's third-largest diamond producer in 2003, is emerging from civil war. Half a million people were killed in battles that began after the African nation gained independence from Portugal in 1975. In the Republic of Congo, which earns more than half its income from oil, about 4-million people died, mostly from disease and starvation, during two civil wars between 1996 and 2002.

“There could be large global spillovers if they don't do well,” Soniya Carvalho, lead author of “Engaging with Fragile States: An IEG Review of World Bank Support to Low-Income Countries Under Stress”, said in an interview.

“They could become hotbeds of terrorist activity because there are large ungoverned areas. The imperative to do something in fragile states is very great.”

Donors don't want to spend money in such countries because their governments don't have the capacity to use the funds effectively to reduce poverty, according to the report.

The World Bank, which has lent $4,1-billion to the fragile states in the past two years, and other donors need to boost investment in developing local expertise after conflicts, Carvalho said. In East Timor donors may have pulled out too quickly, she said.

Civil unrest erupted in March in East Timor, which is about 500 kilometers (311 miles) north of Australia, after former Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri dismissed 600 soldiers for deserting.

Clashes between security forces escalated into fighting between armed gangs, killing 37 people and forcing 155 000 people from their homes.

Timor's share of oil and gas reserves in the Timor Sea is about $10-billion according to the Australian government. Half the population lacks safe drinking water. About 60 out of 1 000 infants die before their first birthday and life expectancy is just over 55, according to a United Nations report in March.

Governments in countries such as Afghanistan are also burdened with too much legislation pushed by donors without prioritisation. Afghanistan has to pass 120 new laws, according to the report.

“Each donor has their pet areas and they support those and want changes to be made, but it adds up to a very formidable program,” Carvalho said. “This kind of overload is quite killing.”

Other fragile states include the Central African Republic, which has diamond, uranium, gold and oil deposits, Comoros, Cote d'Ivoire, Eritrea, Guinea, Kosovo, the Solomon Islands, Togo, Vanuatu, West Bank and Gaza, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Laos, Liberia, Myanmar, Somalia, Sudan, Zimbabwe.
 

Robot  Villager

# 1 A World Bank unit added 14 countries to its list of nations at risk of collapse, including Nigeri...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 14.09.2006 12:23

salstep  Villager

# 2 See countries they come group us join. Almost all war zones. Comoros Cote d'Ivoire Eritrea Guinea Kosovo the Solomon Islands Togo Vanuatu West Bank and Gaza Burundi Democratic Republic of Congo Guinea-Bissau Haiti Laos Liberia Myanmar Somalia Sudan Zimbabwe Posted by salstep| 14.09.2006 12:42

Abraxas  Villager

# 3 Hi, folks! Let us now sit back and watch out for the usual denial-ridden, dismissive, and abusive response to horrible news like this. Oh! How I miss my good friend and former paddyman, Chief (Deacon) Femi (Coke) FANI-KAYODE, M.A. Verbal Diarrhoea, Cambridge University, England. Please come back. All is forgiven. We miss you badly. (The wicked have done their worst.) Na how mess dey smell na ‘im dem dey take know how $hit go smell. Translation: A stitch in time saves nine. BREAKING NEWS! Anyway, sha, please do not forget to remember that we have precisely 8 months, 14 days, 18 hours, 5 minutes, and 37 seconds more to go, before our Messiah, who art in Aso Rock Villa, Asokoro District, Abuja, Nigeria, makes his FINAL exit at 12:00 noon sharp, on Tuesday, 29 May 2007! Hip! Hip!! Hip!!! Hurray!!!! Glory be to GOD Almighty Most High! Praise the LORD, Halleluiah and Amen. Muchas gracias, mis amigos. Posted by Abraxas| 14.09.2006 12:59

BABAKE!  JJC

# 4 Pretty ominous. As far as verbal diahorrea is concerned prepare you ears as the diahorrea causing menu is still being served at Aso rock and is unlikely to stop until May 29, 2007 ABRAXAS I hope you will factor in the usual "African Time" into this your countdown calculations and lets see if OBJ and his INEC can surprise us. Posted by BABAKE!| 14.09.2006 13:48

kvin33  Villager

# 5 The open and blatant containment policies implemented in Eastern Nigeria and the internal colonization which the South-south have only recently started resisting are key structural mechanisms that will keep Nigeria one for a while. Unless the Western nations stop encouraging stability in place of fairness in Nigeria, the east, the only real threat to one Nigeria, will not embark on another wholesale bid to create a new nation. Will Nigeria colapse under its own weight?? Well, we may have already sealed that fate whether we like it or not, for as long as the status quo ante remains the status quo, it is only a matter of time before it all blows up. Nothing I am sad to say will be peaceful about a collapse of Nigeria. Look around Africa, there is nothing special about Nigeria, that place could degenerate into an african conflict of epic proportions as boundary disputes, ethnic cleansing, power struggles, land and oil rights disputes will ravage the land. Let us pray instead for a NEW NIGERIA Posted by kvin33| 14.09.2006 13:50

NaijaPRO  Villager

# 6 Chineke! My point exactly in response to the "17 Days in Naija" piece! How can a country be added to this kain list ALL because of deteriorating governance and corruption? In year 2006, after 45 years and 11.5 mos of independence?!! See us see trouble oh! Why am I even surprised? I'm sure we all know it's a matter of time. We will soon get to the point where if a Naija rep gan sef opens his mouth at an international forum (EX: UN conference), any of the other reps from other countries fit tell am to shut up considering he or she is from Nigeria. It will go something like this: "What are you even talking about? What do you know? You come from a land ridden with corruption, lawlessness, etc.! What kind of positive contribution do you have to add to this meeting? In fact why are you here (while throwing a glance towards Kofi Annan with that "why did you invite them?" look)? You get my drift? Oil or no oil, Nigeria is losing dignity not only within its boundaries, but also outside. This is getting outrageous! These thieving people in power need to be stopped! Don't bother to ask me how please. Me sef still dey scratch my head. Posted by NaijaPRO| 14.09.2006 14:25

Auspicious  Villager

# 7 ...and while such news reports are released about the 6th/7th/8th largest oil producing country in the world, the Olori Oko and his Deputy are busy 'entertaining' us with their dirty linens as they massage their 'own personal' egos and 'rofo-rofo' it all out. It is times like this that one is tempted to sympathize with NVS' Jonathen. O ma se o..:sad: Auspicious. Posted by Auspicious| 14.09.2006 14:39

nnediuto  JJC

# 8 Obasanjo was about 24 years when Nigeria gained her hard earned Independence and stability in 1960. Today, at about 70 years old, he is leading to country to a collapse! Posted by nnediuto| 14.09.2006 15:04

Hakim  Villager

# 9 Any foreigner reading Nigerian newspapers will probably think the country is in a state of war or about to collapse, that is not new. The rest of the world sees us the way we see ourselves, what the world bank is saying is not different from what we read daily in Nigerian newspapers. Nigeria is definitely not like Liberia, Congo or Somalia, what is the connection? Iraq and Afghanistan are not even on the list, in any case was there a time when Nigeria was a paragon of good governance and financial propriety? and if Nigeria did not collapse under a chain of near psychotic millitary dictators, multi billion dollar debt and mind boggling corruption, why should it now? I believe things are actually looking up for Nigeria, I will be more worried if the reason they gave was religious fanatism or ethnic nationalism these are the things that can really put Nigeria asunder, a few sticky fingers ( though bad ) will not do it, otherwise Nigeria would have been history by now. Posted by Hakim| 14.09.2006 15:56

sniper  Villager

# 10 Brothers And Sisters How Else Do We Want World Bank To Talk About Us After We've Paid Their Debt And Are Out Of The Second Slavery Called Debt Servicing, Nigeria Will Not Break Up Only The World Bank Will Cease To Exist When Nigeria And All This Country Settle Their Differences. Posted by sniper| 14.09.2006 16:50

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