Abuja, Nigeria – It may have been the first-civilian-to-civilian transfer of power in Nigeria but the handover of power by Nigeria’s now former larger-than-life president, Olusegun Obasanjo, to his new self-effacing successor, Umar Yar’Adua was a heavily militarized affair.

Getting into the venue at the eagle square was near impossible as heavily armed soldiers and policemen manned the gates where a large crowd had formed. Only an exemption given to a visiting foreign diplomat allowed us to scale through the water-tight security.

I had attended the last inauguration in 2003, which had heavy security by any standards but this one was maximum security. If you had no invitation card or a presidency-issued name badge, you couldn’t even enter the eagle square parade ground which is usually the only inaugural open to the masses. This time, it was by invitation only.

Crowds teemed outside the fenced grounds and tempers flared as incensed citizens clashed with the security agents at the gate from being denied entry. Apparently people were not only disenfranchised from voting but also from inaugurating their new president.

I could not help reflecting that there is a direct correlation between the level of credibility of the elections and the level of security at the inauguration. The more rigging there was at the elections, the more security there would be at the inauguration…

Foreign media correspondents waited till after 9pm on the eve of the inauguration to get their accreditation – a process more vigorous than ever before with SSS clearance required. But why the ubiquitous security?

The Path to the Presidency

The battle royale for Africa’s most prized presidency occurred in April as one of the world’s 7 largest democracies went to the polls. The battle may be over but the war is most certainly not as the days ahead will evidence. This is a primer on what the primal undercurrents and subplots are in Nigeria’s 2007 presidential elections.

Very early on, this election became more about who must not run than who would run.

Perhaps what has stood out as the main qualification outgone President Obasanjo sought in a successor is someone “who is not a thief.” For a pervasively corrupt nation, as far as international rankings go, this is as close as you can get to sainthood.

In this regard he nominated himself as that virtuoso but was defeated in a third-term bid by forces opposed to a constitutional amendment on term limits. He then outmaneuvered the wily ex-dictator who brought him to power, General Babangida, reknowned for institutionalizing corruption courtesy of an unaccounted for $12 billion First Gulf war windfall. Obasanjo was clearly not about to let the fox guard the hen-house where the Second Gulf War nest egg of about $50 billion in foreign reserves were stashed.

Thereafter he sought to scuttle the ambitions of his current vice president Atiku who he indicted and disqualified for misusing government funds. Atiku countered with copies of checks alleging that he and the president operated slush funds for the party and other private affairs through those activities. Atiku, with an exceptionally negative public perception in regard to corruption, did not help matters by confirming dubious dealings and trying to rope in Obasanjo.

Men To Watch

At a Washington event, a senior government official Minister El-Rufai stated that with the elections essentially being a 2-horse race, whoever was the victor, would be good for Nigeria.

He was referring to Gen. Buhari, a lead opposition candidate who garnered a reputation in his first stint as military head of state for honesty and discipline, and Gov. Yar’adua candidate of the ruling party and one out of about half a dozen of Nigeria’s 36 state governors who are not being investigated for corruption.

Obasanjo’s efforts to cleanse the Augean stables of Nigeria’s legendary corrupt politicians may have been motivated more from a desire to leave a lasting legacy than an outright powergrab. Campaigners for his failed third-term bid, for instance, made a telling argument that when he handed over power as military ruler in 1979, Nigeria Airways had 18 aircraft. By his return to power as a civilian ruler 2 decades later, Nigeria airways barely had 3 aircraft and had to be liquidated.

The fear that his economic reforms, savings and other assets would be frittered away by unscrupulous successor may have been a very concern sufficient to move him to seek, first a third term and then an active role in installing his successor. In a famous quote attributed to the out-going President, he said while he did not know who would replace him, he knew “who would not.”

Gen. Buhari as a fellow military man and ex-dictator belonged to the same club club as Obasanjo. He also had the military constituency that would have ensured his government’s stability. Buhari, while generally viewed as an honest patriot, was also an angry man. His animus with another club member, Gen Babangida for ousting him in a palace coup is unresolved and a new enmity was brewing with Gen. Obasanjo. Obasanjo had no iron-clad guarantee that Gen. Buhari would not go after he or Gen. Babangida and this would have a quite unsettling effect on the military espirit ‘ corp and the ex-dictator clique.

Gov. Yar’adua is not from the ex-dictator club but he is a sibling to Obasanjo’s former military vice president, Gen. Musa Yar’adua.  The close family and political ties is what Obasanjo is counting on to keep Yar’adua from turning on him. In that sense, Yar’adua is politico-hybrid - part of the ruling elite and tangentially part of the military industrial complex. His name recognition, more than any other existing northern govenor, is adequate to protect his government from military incursion even without Obasanjo “reinsurance policy” behind him.

In keeping other players out of the field Obasanjo may have been looking for a “win-win” as the official hinted but clearly it would have been necessary for another reason. Both Yar’adua and Buhari are from the same Katsina state. A strong 3-way race would have had both, largely canceling each other out in several places.

Re-enacting History

Perhaps the most intriguing undercurrent to the present elections is its historicity. In 1984 Buhari took power from the last elected president in Nigeria and jailed scores of civilian governors for corruption. His return to power 24 years later may have meant history repeating itself, and as some fear, his imprisoning most of the 36 governors and their deputies.

Buhari is said to have met with a sitting governor who offered him 2 billion naira in campaign contributions so long as he isn’t probed if Buhari gets into office. The General reportedly replied the governor, who has been accused of being an ex-convict, “if you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to fear.” He got nothing whereas his rival elections was bank-rolled by the self-same governor.

Ironically, Yar’adua has similar historical connections. The first time Obasanjo came o power upon the death of the head-of-state, a Yar’adua was promoted over and above some of his more senior colleagues and made his military vice president. It is difficult to miss the parallels in the fact that another Yar’adua was picked over and above all the other more prominent governors interested in the presidency and given the plum job.

Indeed the biggest concern many have about the president-elect, besides his health, is that he will really be another Yar’adua vice president de facto to a president ex-offico Obasanjo.

Atiku had no history besides being a wealthy customs officer. His record was essentially the same or slightly worse than Obasanjo’s record.  While it is difficult to pinpoint any Obasanjo acquisitions whilst in power, the VP has no shortage of allegations. As one Nigerian aptly pointed out, if continuity means the same “no electricity and lots of mosquitoes” then who needs more of that?

The most historically interesting aspect of the transition is that there have been only 3 democratic transitions of power in Nigeria. In 1979 the military handed power to civilians and again in 1999 the military handed power to civilians. In 2007, civilians are to handover to civilians. Obasanjo is the only common denominator in all three transactions.

In ’79 he was the transferor as military ruler, in ’99 he was the transferee as civilian ruler and in ’07 again a transferor as civilian ruler.

In a nutshell in 2007, the Obasanjo/Yar’adua spirit of 30 years ago, overcame the Buhari/Idiagbon spirit of 23 years ago. In the process, it destabilized the IBB spirit of 22 years ago as well as the Atiku spirit of 8 years ago. Considering that both IBB and Buhari overturned Obasanjo’s last handover to an elected president 26 years ago, any wonder then the premium security at play?

TO BE CONTINUED

(A Special LIVE Report from Abuja by NVS special correspondent on assignment in Nigeria for the inauguration)