Census and the Specialist Print E-mail
Written by Rueben Abati   
Friday, 12 January 2007

YOU know I don't understand all the furore over the Census 2006 results that have just been released".

 

"I do"

 

"Look, Nigerians must realise that there are certain things about their country that they cannot change. Those things can only be changed if there is a revolution, if there is good leadership, if there is less desperate emphasis on tribes, and nationalities, and the sharing of the national cake".

 

"I don't know what you have in mind. But I believe that the whole point of our romance with democracy is that certain things have to change in this country, so that every citizen, every group, can feel a sense of kinship and belonging".

 

"It is a matter of perspective. Take the Census. The North, what is called the North in a geographical sense, will never accept that its population is lower than that of the South. This is a legacy that was left by the British. It was one of the last divide-and-rule tactics introduced into the future Nigeria by the British. The day you organise a Census which changes the figures, you'd see that the results will not be accepted."

 

"We need accurate Census for national planning. No planning can take place without correct figures".

 

"You miss the point again. Population census in Nigeria is not about development planning. It is about power and resource allocation. The states of the North have always enjoyed a lion share of the nation's resources; they have most of the seats in the National Assembly."

 

"The whole thing is a joke. Governors of Southern states, including Igbo Governors whose people have been further marginalised by Census 2006 results sat at the Council of State meeting, and accepted the results without any one of them, calling for an audit of the process."

 

"You want the Federal Government to send the EFCC after them? What could they have done? A Census result that confirms the existing pattern is good for national stability. If you have lived with the skewed distribution of national population for so long, why won't you accept it again? The Obasanjo government is interested in stability, not accurate Census."

 

"This was a Census exercise that was marred by irregularities: I know many Nigerians who were not counted at all, even in spite of the extension of the exercise for two days. Where are those persons in the 140 million that has been declared? The NPC claims that it did a good job. That is a lie. The 2006 Census result is incredible. It is flawed."

 

"You are the one saying so. The Council of State has advised the President to accept the result, and he has done so."

 

"I want to advise the Federal Government to audit the accounts of the National Population Commission."

 

"What has that got to do with the results, if I may ask?"

 

"They merely worked to the answer. They used a pre-determined formula to come up with the present figure of 140 million. The whole thing is unbelievable."

 

"You like to worry a lot. You can't change certain things. The politics of Nigerian Census is one of them."

 

"They say there are more people in the North, than in the South. It is only in Nigeria that this can happen. All over the world, there are more people in the coastal areas than in the desert. This is proven across West Africa ."

 

"Are you now a population expert?"

 

"This is not about expertise. It is about common sense."

 

"I am just surprised that every Nigerian has suddenly become a population expert. I'd like to hear the experts. There are too many politicians commenting on Census figures in the media."

 

"Forget about the experts. They will only say what they are paid to say. I have heard one expert saying that the North has more land mass than the South, so there would necessarily be more people in the North. That is an unintelligent thing to say. Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo have land mass, but how many people live there?"

 

"I don't know why you are worrying yourself."

 

"Go to the North. For miles, you won't see people; just empty space. Go anywhere in the South, there are people everywhere."

 

"That is not how you measure population distribution."

 

"Who says? So, why do demographers use aerial mapping? They say Kano is more populous than Lagos , and that Lagos is just a little over nine million. Definitely, there are more people in Lagos than Kano . How can Kano expand, and Lagos appears to be shrinking? Even the United Nations recognises that Lagos is a megalopolis and that in 2015, it will be the third largest city in the world. I am surprised that the UN has never heard of Kano as a heavily populated city."

 

"The UN can make mistakes"

 

"In 1991, the present Kano State included the present Jigawa state and at the time, it was only a little more populous than Lagos State . Jigawa has been taken out of Kano Sate. Lagos is still the same way it was in 1991 and yet they are saying that a reduced Kano state has more human beings than Lagos state."

 

"The Lagos state government has already rejected the Census results".

 

"I reject it too".

 

"Who are you?"

 

"A concerned citizen"

 

"You could be labelled a tribalist, you stand the risk of been called an anti-North campaigner."

 

"This is not about the North. It is about the truth. Lagos - nine million plus. I can bet on it: there are more than 9 million people in Alimosho alone; not to talk of the crowd in Oshodi."

 

"You are looking at density, not actual population."

 

"To show you how funny the whole thing is. The Population Commission puts the population of Abuja at 1.4 million. I thought the Federal Capital Development Authority once announced that Abuja has a population of six million."

 

"The FCDA was looking for more money from the Federal Government."

 

"The National Assembly would have to reject the 2006 Census Results."

 

"Which National Assembly?"

 

"Do we have any other one?"

 

"I don't see this National Assembly rejecting the Census Results."

 

"But some of the Senators are already debating the results. They want for example, more local governments in Lagos state and an adjustment of the number of representatives in the National Assembly, indeed an amendment of the Constitution."

 

"I like your optimism".

 

"You are cynical."

 

"No. It is just that I don't understand the way Nigerians talk back and forth. On the one hand, I am told the Lagos State government has rejected the Census results, and then, the same state government is seeking to benefit from the same results. Don't you see the contradiction?"

 

"There is no contradiction."

 

"By the way, during the Census exercise, I recall that the Lagos state government conducted its own Census. There were Lagos state officials following the NPC officials about. If the Lagos State Government has its own figures, which are different from what the NPC has released, it should let us know."

 

"Thirteen million. The Lagos state government has announced a census figure of 13 million. The NPC is even saying that Katsina has a larger population than Oyo state. Even Baba is recommending two children per family. He says he is concerned about rapid population growth and early marriage. Is Baba in a position to talk about family planning?"

 

"I love this country, no be small. Never a dull moment. The best way to survive here is to leave politics to the politicians."

 

"We are all in politics."

 

"You are? Okay, did you register to vote in the 2007 elections."

 

"I didn't. I couldn't locate a registration centre in my area."

 

"You are in trouble then?"

 

"What trouble?"

 

"The Lagos State Governor has just warned that the possession of a voter's registration card is now a criterion for enjoying social services in the state."

 

"He cannot say that. I can decide not to vote if I so wish. Where is the law which makes failure to register as a voter a criminal offence? The Lagos State Government should not infringe upon our fundamental rights."

 

"The man is not saying that you must vote by force, he is saying that without a voter's card, you or your children cannot enjoy free education and free healthcare services in the state."

 

"They can keep their free education and free health. My children don't attend public schools. And I don't use public hospitals."

 

"You can't transact any business with the state also if you don't have a voter's card."

 

"But you know that is a joke. The only thing the Lagos State Government can do is to encourage people to participate in the elections and exercise their civic rights. But to compel people to vote, no, that is not possible."

 

"Be careful, how you criticise government. You know there is a clampdown on the media. The SSS is beginning to arrest journalists for criticising government. The editors of Leadership and Abuja Enquirer newspapers have been arrested by the SSS."

 

"So, we should not say the truth as we see it?"

 

"Well, say the truth and prepare to go to jail or get shot. There are too many desperate people in this country. You don't know when you'd step on their toes. They say truth is bitter. In Nigeria , the truth can bring you sorrow."

 

"That is a prescription for cowardice. It is like saying Atiku should not return to Nigeria ."

 

"But the man has said categorically that he will return..."

 

"Until I see him..."

 

"He will return. The Federal Government has already soft-pedalled. The Presidency has said that it never declared his seat vacant; and that the man should return to his official quarters."

 

"That is suspicious. Is there any law that says the Vice President must live inside Aso Rock?"

 

"No comment. The matter is before the Court."

 

"Which court. The thing is as clear as daylight."

 

"When Atiku returns let him worry about that..."

 

"It is not about him, you know, all these issues are actually about us, about our country's level of development."

 

"No, about the quality of leadership."

 

"What's the difference?"

 

 

 

 

 




RobotRobot is offline 
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 # 1

"YOU know I don't understand all the furore over the ...Read the full article.

Posted by Robot| 12.01.2007 16:59

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GodwinGodwin is offline 
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Lagos State conducted Alternate Census during the National Census.

If Tinubu is sincere in the rejection of the census figures, Let him order the release of their own figures immediately.

I think all the noise being raised is because Kano State figures are more than Lagos state figures. (Kano state is 12 times Larger than Lagos state but Lagos state population density is 11.5 times bigger than Kano state.)

It is also claimed that there are 4.5 Million houses in Lagos , then the population should be 13 - 15 Million. just like the F.C.T population claims of 6 Million.

Our Cynicism about goverment programmes is too much.

Posted by Godwin| 13.01.2007 01:29

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AbraxasAbraxas is offline 
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=Godwin;148636>Lagos State conducted Alternate Census during the National Census.

If Tinubu is sincere in the rejection of the census figures, Let him order the release of their own figures immediately.

I think all the noise being raised is because Kano State figures are more than LagosKano state is 12 times Larger than Lagos state but Lagos state population density is 11.5 times bigger than Kano state.)

It is also claimed that there are 4.5 Million houses in Lagos , then the population should be 13 - 15 Million. just like the F.C.T population claims of 6 Million.

Our Cynicism about goverment programmes is too much.
state figures. (




Hi, Mr. Godwin!

Please take another sobber look at the figures, below and see for yourself if your argument still holds:


Niger Republic:
Land Area: 1.267 million sq km
Population: 12.53 million
Population Density: 9.9 persons/sq km. (N.B. Niger Republic has a so-called "land mass" that is 1.4 times that of Nigeria!)

Chad Republic:
Land Area: 1,259,200 sq km
Population: 9.94 million
Population Density: 7.9 persons/sq km. (N.B. Chad Republic also has a so-called "land mass" that is 1.4 times that of Nigeria!)

Nigeria:
Land Area: 910,768 sq km
Population: 140 million
Population Density: 153.7 persons/sq km.

North West Nigeria:
Land Area: 207,745 sq km
Population: 35.79 million
Population Density: 172 persons/sq km.

North East Nigeria:

Land Area: 271,998 sq km
Population: 18.97 million
Population Density: 70 persons/sq km.

North Central Nigeria:
Land Area: 252,012 sq km
Population: 18.86 million
Population Density: 75 persons/sq km. (N.B. North Central Nigeria has a so-called "land mass" that is 1.2 times that of North Western Nigeria!)

Cameroon:
Land Area: 469,440 sq km
Population: 17.34 million
Population Density: 36.9 persons/sq km. (N.B. Cameroon has a so-called "land mass" that is 2,3 times that of North Western Nigeria!)

Benin Republic:
Land Area: 110,620 sq km
Population: 7.86 million
Population Density: 71 persons/sq km.

Is there anything unique, or peculiar about Nigeria, that its population density is over twice that of its neighbour, Benin Republic, which, incidentally, shares similar geographic and climatic characteristics with Nigeria, right from the Atlantic coast to the sub-saharan desert terrain?

Is there anything unique, or peculiar about the North West geopolitical zone of Nigeria, that its population density is over two and half
(2.5) times that of the North Central geopolitical zone, which, incidentally, has more condusive geographic, agricultural, natural resource, and climatic characteristics than the sub-saharan semi-arid terrain of the North West?

If indeed ther is something special about Nigeria, maybe petroleum resources, then the same factors ought to pull populations within and outside of Nigeria, towards the very source of those same "goodies" that seem to attract Nigeria's neighbours to Nigeria, in the general direction of the oil-producing territories in Nigeria, like Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, and Rivers States. But, of course, we know that not to be the case. In short, the 2006 census figures for Nigeria were "cooked"! Hard-boiled lies, damned lies, and ojoro statistics, period!

And so, what next?

Well, if we take an intelligent and enlightened approach at estimmating the population of Nigeria, I believe the population density of Nigeria should be closer to that of Benin Republic than that of Cameroon. Similarly, the population density of the North West geopolitical zone should be closer to that of Niger than that of Benin Republic, while that of the North East geopolitical zone should be closer to that of Chad than that of Cameroon.


And so, in the absence of any credible physical head count, and assuming a population density of between 71~100 persons per sq. km for Nigeria, then population of the Federal Republic of Nigeria is estimated to be between 66 million ~ 93 million.

If we are generous enough to concede Cameroon's
population density to the North East geopolitical zone, and Benin Republic's population density to the North West geopolitical zone, then the most optimistic estimate of the population of the whole of Northern Nigeria (NW, NE & NC) should be about 44 million or less.

Muchas gracias, mis amigos.

Don Juan Carlos ABRAXAS (III)

Posted by Abraxas| 13.01.2007 03:19

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akuluounoakuluouno is offline 
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 # 4

It is only in Nigeria that after a population count people usually ask who won. Why because the winner takes all and gives nothing. He takes all fom others especially those who lost in the race. Now Igbo governors may be afraid to veto the results at the C of States for fear of the Odili syndrome but what of the other ethnic groups. Does it mean that they accepted the figures. Does Obj the present chief of Odua people accept the figures in all honesty?.
Without bitterness and prejudice to a well written article, it is these ideas of superiority and inferiority which the colonialists left for us and which no Nigerian leader since then has had the balls to rectify in a bid to preserve a fraudulent status quo that is at the root of all the reasons why we have remained a giant with a clay feet while the people have been reduced to denizens in the jungle of anarchy.
I have just read today's papers with pics of our mothers and daughters running after the traffic at Ojo area of Lagos hawking scarce fuel to motorsists in view of the biting scarcity. Tommorrow there will be a fuel explosion and we elites and politicians from our comfort zones will be mouthing platitiudes and worn out cliches. When shall we in all honesty and sincereity agree that Nigeria has long lost its mojo and call for a geniune dialogue on how to set her on the right path. :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad:

Posted by akuluouno| 13.01.2007 05:04

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docokwydocokwy is offline 
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CENSUS 2006 :- North: Why all the fuss about this well-known fact? —South: No sane person will accept these figures
By Chioma Gabriel, Assistant Editor
Posted to the Web: Saturday, January 13, 2007



I’m just surprised — Ezeife

Dr. Chukwuemeka Ezeife, former governor of Anambra State and erstwhile political adviser to President Obasanjo says he’s really surprised at the published results of the census.

It’s really very surprising. I’m surprised at the figures for Abia and Bayelsa and that is the problem. It shows we are not out of the woods. That is the only thing I can say about it.

Okorie: It’s revealing

Chief Chekwas Okorie is the factional chairman of All Progressive Alliance, APGA.
It’s really very revealing because it has confirmed the position of some of us in today’s Nigeria. That is why I am very concerned about putting ethnicity in the enumeration forms we fill in this country.

I have said it that we have a minimum of 25% of Ndigbo in every state in Nigeria outside the core Igbo states. Igbos have over 40% of the population of people living in Lagos, Rivers and Delta. What has been proved in Kano is that Igbos are more than three million in number.

If you go to Sabon Gari area where non-indigenes live, you’d discover that about 90% of the people are Igbos. That means that in Kano alone, Ndigbo constitute 30% of its population.

In other states outside Igboland, the Igbo people constitute at least 25% of their population. That is why the Igbos should spearhead the effort to register for the next election. If they do, their relevance should be felt in areas outside Igboland where they are resident.

That is why we are against those who want to limit APGA to an Anambra affair. The party should spread out. And to have a presidential candidate that is incapable of reaching out to these other Igbos wherever they may be as a result of age, poor resources or ill-health is the unkindest cut on the people.

Posted by docokwy| 13.01.2007 05:55

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ForshowForshow is offline 
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Mr Abati.. It is only the Obasanjo generation that can they cheat and they would not do anything, Mr brother, let the senate and National assembly approve the figure and you would see if they would not be civil war in Nigeria. Quote me.. If they think like they checked our fathers that we their children would be mumu for them.. I tell you .. my generation is ready to war.. Abati to be honest with you. If Nigeria senate approve the census , then Nigeria should break up.. there is not need living in a nation where some feel they are God.. Mr Makawa have set up a stage for war. If war would be the only leave.. Then we shall be prepared.. Niger Delta (MEND) is a small child play, if they approve the census figure. Let them dare us this time.. and see if Nigeria would not break up.


here below are think you should think about.. below..


Here is why the census 2006 is a fraud While the Fulani/Hausa who live around and close to the

desert have a population density of 163.4859 person for every kilometer you travel.
Which is higher than the rest of Nigeria all put together have 146.8367 person for every

kilometer you travel.
The middle belt and Kanuri area have 71.5388 person for every kilometer you travel. This is why

it is a fraud. I have no hate for fulani/Hausa people, Just the census figure is a fraud,


see calculation below

The 9 fulani/hausa state of Sokoto,kebbi,zamfara, kaduna,kano,gombe,bauchi,katsina and Jigawa in

the desert area of nigeria, which satellite picture show is less populated is said to have

42,817,288

Their population census 42, 817,288 divided 261,902 = 163.4859 square kilometer per person.


The rest of Nigeria has 97,186,254 with area of 661,866

Rest of Nigeria population density

= 97,186,254 divide 661,866= 146.8367 square kilometer per person.


The Middle belt and Kanuri area without the 9 Fulani/hausa state in the desert has 32, 207 878

with area of 450,215

The Middle belt and Kanuri area(32, 207 878) population density =

32, 207 878 divide 450,215= 71.5388 square kilometer per person.




Rest of Nigeria without lagos population density

= 88 172 720 divide 658 521= 133.895 person for every kilometer you travel.



Now if you use the middle belt and Kanuri population density to calculate the Fulani/hausa

population since they live just abit below the fulani/hausa and culture and other been equal,

here is the calculation,

Fulani/hausa population= 261,902 multiple 71.5388 = 18, 736,155 people,


Instead of 42, 817,288




Fulani/Hausa who live around and close the the desert have a population density of 163.4859

person for every kilometer you travel.

Rest of Nigeria without lagos population density

= 88 172 720 divide 658 521= 133.895 person for every kilometer you travel.

even if you remove lagos and Oyo from the South Benue Niger(SBN) the Fulani/hausa population

density is till higher than the south benue Niger of Nigeria, So you know this is 419, They

should arrest Mr Makawa.

see more analysis on our website NigeriaONE


If you remove Lagos from the rest of Nigeria population, The density of the rest of Nigeria

apart from the Fulani/hausa , would be about 130 person per kilometer, which is is nearly 40

less than the Fulani/hausa ,

I think the senate and the national Assembly should look and analysis this figure before they

reject the figure,


Even if you remove Lagos from the rest of Nigeria, the population density drop to about 130

person per kilometer and you also remove kaduna from the fulani/hausa because of the minority in

that area,

The fulani/hausa population density goes up to about 171 person per kilometer while the rest of

Nigeria is 130, if you remove oyo and river state, the rest of Nigeria population density

become 119 while the fulani /hausa population per kilometer would remain about 171 person per

kilometer, My people is that possible if you have travelled nigeria, that they are 40 people

more than the rest of Nigeria in density, against i said 419, Mr makawa should be arrested, He

should have learn 419 from some expect, now what did this man study in school, his maths most

be really BAD, I am working on the figure he present, I notice a style. which my explain all

this, may be I would derive a formular. that everybody can use, to get their state, This Mr

Makawa maths was BAD, Please note from the name Makawa I think he is from Kano state,



My people Igbo man don suffer for Nigeria, Notice that if they do not cancel this census. In 2016

with the same growth rate , the fulani/hausa where mr Makawa comes from, would be about 50% of

the population of Nigeria, How is it possible that the fulani/hausa had about 16 million

children in the last 15 years, which is the population of the south east, and the igbo only had

4.9 children in 15 years, and the yoruba only had 5 million children.

16 million children is too high for the fulani/hausa while the rest of Nigeria only had 35

million, so for every 3 children born in Nigeria in the last 15 years, 1 out of 3 is a

fulani/hausa child, that can not be possible, see our nigeriaone for more detail. as I analysis

the figure.

So Kanuri people do not have many wivies abi but since 1963 their growth rate have not multiple

by 3 times sha, only the fulani/hausa, Mr Makawa is a lier. If he had no figure for us, we can

understand is position but to lie to us, is another thing.

How if Mr Makawa census figures are correct, It means that
for every 6 children a fulani/hausa family as, the average Igbo family have 1.9 children while

the an average yoruba family have 1.8 children, I do not want to talk about the middle belt ,

Mr Makawa believe this middle belt people are childless,

Average fulani/hausa family 6.0 children
Average Igbo family 1.9 children
Average Yoruba family 1.8 children

It is a linear graph, This mr makawa must be joking, no nation have a linear graph, only part

thatis not linear is abuja,
Now use 1.5 to multiple the 1991 census, you should get the 2006 census +_ 100,000

Note that in 1963, the Middle belt and the Kanuri people had about the same population even more

than the fulani/hausa group, but in 2006 Mr Makawa is claim that his group have over taken then

and have 42 million,

Also note than in 1963, the fulani/hausa group had just 300,000 more than the Yorubas, but he

claim they now lead the yoruba with about 15 million more , that funny,


Note that Kwara state and ondo state have been close to been childless in the last 15 years,

from his calculation they had just a little above 1 child per house hold,

We at NigeriaONE are ready to pay for the ticket of a google engineer to come to nigeria and

address the Nigeria senate and National assembly, so that they can see the satellite picture

themself and now judge for themself, before they reject the figure, it should clearly that Mr

Makawa is a lier,

Here is a list of all the Africa country Mr Makawa claim his Fulani/hausa tribe is more that, 49

countries, And his fulani/hausa women had 16 million children in the last 15 years, which is

more than 38 country in Africa, that look funny,

6 Sudan 40,187,486
7 Tanzania 36,766,356
8 Kenya 33,829,590
9 Morocco 32,725,847
10 Algeria 32,531,853
11 Uganda 27,269,482
12 Ghana 21,029,853
13 Mozambique 19,406,703
14 Madagascar 18,040,341
15 Côte d'Ivoire 17,298,040
16 Cameroon 16,380,005
17 Burkina Faso 13,925,313
18 Zimbabwe 12,746,990
19 Mali 12,291,529
20 Malawi 12,158,924
21 Niger 11,665,937
22 Zambia 11,261,795
23 Angola 11,190,786
24 Senegal 11,126,832
25 Tunisia 10,074,951
26 Chad 9,826,419
27 Guinea 9,467,866
28 Somalia 8,591,629
29 Rwanda 8,440,820
30 Benin 7,460,025
31 Burundi 6,370,609
32 Sierra Leone 6,017,643
33 Libya 5,765,563
34 Togo 5,681,519
35 Eritrea 4,561,599
36 Central African Republic 3,799,897
37 Liberia 3,482,211
38 Mauritania 3,086,859
39 Congo-Brazzaville 3,039,126
40 Namibia 2,030,692
41 Lesotho 1,867,035
42 Botswana 1,640,115
43 The Gambia 1,593,256
44 Guinea-Bissau 1,416,027
45 Gabon 1,389,201
46 Mauritius 1,230,602
47 Swaziland 1,173,900
48 Comoros 671,247
49 Equatorial Guinea 535,881
50 Djibouti 476,703
51 Cape Verde 418,224
52 Western Sahara (SADR) 273,008
53 São Tomé and Príncipe 187,410
54 Seychelles 81,188





Do you know in 1963 that the middle belt and the kanuri had just abit more population than Mr

makawa people, But now Mr Makawa is claiming that his people are 42 million that the middle belt

and the Kanuri are just 34 million, While his people live close to the desert, the others do

not, Even satellite picture shows that the Middle belt and the Kanuri have more villages, town,

and cities more than the Fulani/hausa, MY BROTHER WONDERS WOULD NOT END. It is well know fact

the the fulani/hausa have the higest of children die in Nigeria, due to sickness. Also mr Makawa

is claiming that Nobody died in the last 15 years,

IF they senate fail to reject the census figure they are laying a ground for a civil war,

because in 2016, at the same population growth rate 1.32, Mr Makawa is claiming that his

fulani/Hausa group would be 50% of Nigeria, In 1963, They were 18% of Nigeria, in 2006 Mr

Makawa is claiming that the Fulani/hausa people are 30% of Nigeria . This is fraud and the senate

need to reject it.

NigeriaONE are willing to fly an international expert to address the senate and show them the

satellite picture of Nigeria and they can be a better judge of Mr Makawa census figure. Mr Makawa

is a 419.







If you use the 1963 census to run a estimated population, Kastina state should be 4.1 million .

Please note that why the fulani/hausa got far more than their population, The rest of Nigeria

got less, here below is data if you use the 1963 figure at a population of 140 million,

Abia state 3.5 million
Ogun 4.4 million
Adamawa 3.7 million
taraba 2.7 millions
borno 4.7 million
Oyo state 8.0 million
yobe 2.7 million
benue 4.6 million
Ondo state 4.5 million
kwara state 3.1 million
cross river 3.8 million
osun state 4.7 million

Posted by Forshow| 13.01.2007 15:46

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GodwinGodwin is offline 
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 # 7

Hi Mr. Abraxas.

Below is an opinion on criticism against 1991 census figures.

Some of the following may be relevant to the 2006 census figures.

IMHO the challenge for us Nigerians is to make our population an asset and not a burden.

We may also need to control our population to make economic growth realistic just like the President said in his speech after the council of state approved the census figures.







http://www.gamji.com/haruna/haruna152.htm




How Critics Got the Census ’91 Wrong

By

Dr. Abba Lawan

Forwarded By Mohammed Haruna

kudugana@yahoo.com





Note: The article below was first published in the defunct Citizen on May 18, 1992. We reproduced it here against the background of the forthcoming census in March and because it is relevant to the politics of census today as it was 1992.



Editor



The 1991 Census provisional results released in March have, as expected, continued to generate comments and criticisms in the media. Most of the criticisms have been on the regional distribution of the population. The critics, including Bola Ige, Ebenezer Babatope, Frederick Fasheun, Pini Jason and The Guardian in an editorial (28/4/92), claim that according to what they call, “principles of geography and demography”, the further one is from a tropical rain forest environment, the fewer the number of persons that should be found. Based on their reasoning, states such as Kano, Sokoto, Bauchi and Kaduna, in the “desert, agricultural, rural” north should have returned smaller populations than states in the “forest, industrial, urban” south.



Let us start by explaining some concepts that appear confusing to Bola Ige and Co: There is no desert zone in Nigeria. Apart from Southern Nigerian rain forest, we have three gradations of grasslands in the North. Furthermore, population size is a different concept from population density. Size refers to total number of persons in a territory or region. Density relates to number of persons to an area. Specifically, density of population is the number of persons per square mile or kilometer. The 1991 Census figures reveal that the South, a smaller physical area – one quarter of the country – is more densely populated than the north. The north, three-quarters of the total land area, has a larger population but lower density than the south. The concentration of people in a small area, such as Lagos State, because of visibility, falsely suggests, like a mirage, a very large population relative to the other less dense areas. Thus, simply because the south is more densely populated than the north it does not follow that it should automatically have a larger population.



It is also wrong to say, as Census ’91 critics argue, that a high level of urbanization in an area (that is, the percentage of population living in urban areas), necessarily implies that the region will have a larger population than a more rural one. Put in other words, just because a region or territory has a high percentage of its population living in urban areas, it should not necessarily have more people than a largely rural one. For example, the fact that USA is more urbanized does not give it a large total population than China that is largely rural. So also Canada versus Nigeria or Singapore versus India. Therefore, to argue, as the Guardian and other critics do, that the more urban south should have, because of that urbanization, a larger population than a more rural north is incorrect. The same is also true of the relationship between electricity consumption, level of literacy, standard of living and total population size.



Several Factors determine the distribution of population of a given territory or region; any student of population geography or demography knows this. It is incorrect to say that a single factor – what critics call “geography” – determines whether or not, and how many, people live in an area. In fact, factors such as duration of human habitation, past stability or exposure to wars and slavery, soil, prevalence of diseases, location of economic activities could be, and most often are, more critical than “geography”. I discuss below how some of these factors influence the distribution of population.



Let us start with the physical, geographic factor. Bola Ige et al believe that a tropical rain forest environment, independent or other factors is more favorable to human survival or existence than grassland. How true is this belief? A comparison of maps of the distribution of worlds population with that of vegetation reveals a most significant pattern: Universally, tropical rain forest areas, as found in southern Nigeria, are densely settled: in fact, a notable geographer Clark (1975:230) confirms that for Africa as a whole, “the most densely populated climate zones tend to be those of the savanna (as found in northern Nigeria) and the Mediterranean climates where there is a marked division into rainy and dry seasons. Except in certain areas where powerful cultures have evolved, most forest have been associated with low population densities, not only because of the thickness of vegetation and the difficulties of clearing but also of diminution of soil fertility after clearance and high incidence of diseases as well as limitations of human technology to tackle such environment.” Beaujeu-Garnier (1978), another population geographer, describes this region as “impenetrable, indestructible, and hostile in every way to human life. The soil can only support mere and infrequent harvests. Man is a marginal being, menaced and infested”. That is the main reason the Amazon forest of Brazil, Zambia, Congo, Cameroon, Gabon etc are sparsely populated. The same environmental condition among others makes forest areas of southern Nigeria not produce much of the food being consumed there. In contrast, northern Nigeria, the territory considered by The Guardian and Co. as inhospitable, is in fact the place which provides, for man, at the existence level of peasant technology, the essential for survival: food. The Guinea, Sudan and Sahel zones, though the driest parts of the country, have the highest agricultural input in the land: their cereals, tubers and livestock feed the nation. That is why agriculture in this country is essentially northern Nigerian.



Thus, if one relies only on geographic factor, then the population figures returned by Census ’91 for the rest of southern Nigeria could not have been plausible. They would have been highly suspect. Luckily, other factors are more significant in determining the distribution of population. One of such factors is the duration of human habitation in an area – what Beaujeu-Garnier calls “age of peopling”. According to her, “populations living in the same place for a long time, even though they may develop but slowly, will end by becoming more and more numerous… A population with its roots in the remote past has a tendency to adapt itself very closely to the natural environment”. Thus, one would expect – and Census ’91 figures reveal – populations to be large and dense where ancient polities existed. Specifically, regions where Kanem – Borno and Hausa kingdoms in the north, Yoruba states in the West and village societies of Igboland were located in the past are today areas of large populations. I need to emphasize here that the oldest and largest polities that existed in what is now Nigeria were located in Northern Nigeria, in the grassland belt. The people of such areas as mentioned above have continued to remain in their “home-lands” despite the vicissitudes of physical environment such as diminished soil fertility (as in Yoruba and Ibo lands) and droughts (as in Hausa and Borno lands). The populations have become territorially immobile.

An effective political organization, as found in those ancient kingdoms, ensured a peaceful and secure environment free from enslavement. That was necessary for agriculture, for the development of commerce and manufacturing for general economic prosperity. In such environment therefore, population grew. In contrast, areas exposed to chronic instability, to wars and slave aiding, were sparsely populated and are today a veritable reminder of past human condition. This is why the middle belt is thinly populated.



Economic attractiveness, including presence of commercial and industrial activities is another factor that explains population distribution. Areas of intense economic activities usually attract migrations from, especially, neighboring, less endowed territory. It is one of the factors put forward by some critics to support the thesis of larger southern population. Yes, a coastal strip of Nigeria is a zone of intense economic activities: that is mainly Lagos, which is the premier commercial and industrial centre in the country and which attracts the largest migrants from all over the country. Other coastal areas do not offer the same opportunities and, are, therefore, not attractive destinations for a large scale migration especially of people from northern Nigeria. In addition, the claim that any state in the south other than Lagos is industrial is false. Furthermore, it is not the coast alone that is characterized by intense economic activities. Kano, (and a larger Kano – Kaduna axis) in northern Nigeria is the second most important economic zone in the country. And, on the whole, the north has become over the years, a more attractive destination for southern Nigerians.



There are other equally important factors including prevalence of diseases, soil, etc that, together with those discussed above, explain the distribution of the population of any given area.



Let me as a footnote talk about Kano. Southern Nigerians, who have never ventured outside their “moist forest” enclaves, often wonder why Kano in the grasslands should have large population. They should now be enlightened. Kano State sits on most agriculturally productive part of this country. And as a scholar of this region, Mortimore (1972) points out, “Kano has been a centre of power in Hausa land for more than 1000 years, a factor which has enabled a large sedentary population to grow in relative security. Kano City was (and continues to be) a centre of commerce and manufacturing and enjoyed a close economic relationship with its rural environs”. Economic prosperity, a productive agricultural sector, commerce and manufacturing were conducive to early large population. Today, Kano is the largest and significant city in savannah Africa, drawing migrants from far and near. It should therefore be no surprise that Kano is the second most populous state in the country.



In the light of our preceding discussions, how plausible are Census ’91 results which shows a slight northern Nigeria numerical superiority? The results are, contrary to what the critics say, quite consistent with geographical, demographic and historical expectations. Knowledgeable individuals such as Sir Adetokumbo Ademola, and organization such as the United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) are satisfied with them.



An assumed anomaly here and there, as in case of former Oyo State, should not detract from the validity of the overall result. To Bola Ige and Co I say, put sentiments aside. Give us, if you have any, rational, scientific reasons why Census ’91 results are incorrect. Many of you are lawyers and you have demographer friends. Go to the tribunal.



Dr. Abba Lawan , a demographer, writes from Kano.

Posted by Godwin| 13.01.2007 18:22

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Adamu20007Adamu20007 is offline 
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 # 8

Hi, i would love to say, that the census figures is questionable. I am from the north but I find those figure not to be true. Something is wrong with those figure. I have seen the google earth satellite picture, and I honestly tell you that there is no way those figure are correct.

I know we have divided ourself on North and south, but cant we be Nigeria for once and just try release the census figure and let know the really truth, may be it may help us better.

Posted by Adamu20007| 13.01.2007 19:37

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TonyTony is offline 
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 # 9

CENSUS RESULTS IRONICALLY CONFIRMS IGBO, YORUBA AS MAJOR TRIBES IN NIJA:

THE UNDERLYING FACTORS:

IGBO:
The South-east as a homogenous ethnic group area posted a population of almost 17million inspite of well known massive emigration. With at least a 15-20% default rate given that MASSOB succeeded in almost totally disrupting the census in the Southeast as was widely reported in the press. This means that at least between 3-6 million people could have been under-counted. The figures for Abia, and Enugu states in particular reeks of monumental fraud.

SOUTH-SOUTH IGBO:
In (Anioma) Delta state. The Igbo make up about 40% of the population.

In Rivers state. The Igbo entities make up about 70% of the population.

IGBO EMIGRATION:
Igbo is the most migratory tribe in Nigeria.A sacred truth which none including Obasanjo himself can deny.

Lagos has a massive Igbo population, the largest in Nigeria. Estimates put the Lagos Igbo population at between 30-40%.

Kano has perhaps the second largest Igbo population after Lagos. 90% of the Sabon gari in the segregated North is inhabited by Igbos.The Igbo constitute about 25-30% of the Kano population.

Port-Harcourt which itself is a coastal Igbo city, is mostly inhabited by hinterland Igbos. Much of the recent population increase is actually attributed to migrant Igbos from the hinterland.

Abuja, Kaduna, Ibadan and practically every town and even village in Nigeria has a significant Igbo population.This is no secret in Nigeria.

IGBO MIGRATION WITHIN AFRICA:
Out of all Nigerian tribes, only the Igbo migrate significantly within Africa. There are large Igbo populations and markets in Gabon, Togo, Cameroun, Cotonou, Kenya, Uganda etc.South-Africa has a particurlarly large Igbo population.

IGBO DIASPORA.EUROPE,AMERICA,ASIA:
A friend of mine was telling me the other day, that Texas is like Igboland.It is no secret that texas and America, Canada in general habours a massive Igbo population. So also is Europe. Asia is an almost exclusive Igbo destination, with many Igbos resident there.

If you take all this factors into consideration, the Igbo could easily be the single most populous ethnic group.

The Igbo had insisted on including ethnicity in the census questionaire as it is done in other parts of the world, so that we can determine how many of those who live in Kano or Lagos for example are Igbo, but the North refused because it would reveal the true number of other ethnic groups as superior to theirs.

In the past many people had concluded that the Igbo dont go to school, because they saw so many Igbo traders around Nigeria. But the JAMB statistics,www.jambng.com has revealed that the Igbo are the most educated in Nigeria for so many years running.This is another indicator of the Igbo population. The only reason why there would be many Igbo traders and at the sametime the highest number of university students indicates a high population.

CONCLUSIONS:
Close to half of the Igbo live outside Igboland. Igbo at home in the South-east and South-south number about 25-27million. And the Igbo emigrant population in Nigerian cities, towns,villages, and African, and diaspora destinations would be in the region of 20-25million.The total Igbo population is between 40-50million people.


THE YORUBA:
When you add Northern Yoruba like Kwara state which is 70% Yoruba, and Kogi state which is about 10% Yoruba to the Western states including Lagos which is about 50% Yoruba you get a massive population.

YORUBA MIGRATION:
It is a known fact that the Yoruba hardly migrates within Nigeria or even Africa unlike the Igbos. Most Yoruba are clustered within their enclave.

YORUBA DIASPORA MIGRATION:
Though they dont migrate within Nigeria, but when it comes to European and American migration, the Yoruba's migrate heavily.A significant population of European and American migrants are Yoruba's. This combined with their population in Nigeria gives them a massive population.

HAUSA-FULANI:
These group are actually the minority in Nigeria.They never migrate outside Nigeria,and migrate only in trickles within Nigeria.They stridently refused the inclusion of ethnicity in the census because it would reveal their true population.

The Hausa-Fulani has the habit of lumping, Kanuri's, Nupe's Igala's, Idoma's, Tiv's and even the Northern Yoruba's in Kwara and Kogi states into a seeming homogenous Northern region as if all of them are Hausa-Fulani.

IF all other Northern tribes are taken away, the Hausa fulani would be revealed as a very tiny minority. This is why they refused the inclusion of ethnicity in the census.

Even with the current census 419 results. If you take away the Middle belt, most of whom are neither Hausa-nor Fulani, the South will become a clear majority.

Cheers Tony Okocha.

Posted by Tony| 13.01.2007 22:22

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AuspiciousAuspicious is offline 
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 # 10


=Tony;148708>Blah-Blah-Blah!:.



People dey talk mokey sef talk say ein wan contribute...(hissss!).

Auspicious.

Posted by Auspicious| 13.01.2007 22:36

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