The presidency is an unforgiving office. Its occupant does not have the luxury of trial and error. There are no do-overs. That is why it is not for the ill-prepared, the unprepared. Like Umaru Yar’adua.

At the root of the current lull in presidential leadership is the fact that the current president never imagined his political future in the presidency. Aso Rock residency has been an incidental occurrence in the convoluted political career of Mr. Yar’adua. Although carefully engineered by ex-president Obasanjo as insurance against instant recompense, there has been nothing careful or deliberate about how Yar’adua has embraced his unexpected political transformation.

As a product of and reluctant protagonist in another man’s ambitious script, Yar’adua didn’t have to develop a temperament suited to the presidency. Groping for direction is thus inevitable.

Plunged into an unfamiliar political firmament, Yar’adua has demonstrated an acute disinterest in the burdens of his job. He has instead merely reveled in the aura and ceremonial pleasures of the office. The urgency and alertness demanded by a presidential mandate continue to elude him. This is logical since he has no mandate to lead. His presidency appears doomed.

So let’s look beyond Yar’adua and his pyrrhic presidential privileges.

How do we prevent another Yar’adua from happening to us in 2011? The first step is to throw off our Stockholm syndrome of falling in love with—or at least making peace with—our predicament. Reconciling ourselves to Yar’adua is the political equivalent of enduring a robber’s brutality and accepting his rationalizations after the fact. That’s self-victimization.

Second, we have to commit to disrupting the cycle of incompetent and corrupt leaders installing their clones to sustain the rot. If we do not confront Yar’adua’s infrastructure of electoral fraud in 2011 and allow ourselves to be rigged once more out of the process, his imposition, when he’s finished with us, may inspire the type of tragic nostalgia that some now privately confess about the recent Obasanjo dictatorship.

There is a democratic minimum: voting and having the votes counted towards determining a political outcome that cannot ignore those who produced it. Dispirited from the electoral abuses we have suffered over the last few decades, we have exoticized this banal political truism. We have widened the goalpost and accommodated ourselves to the strange narrative that certain political outcomes are either inevitable or are physical realities that should be accepted.

Other polities see electoral transparency as a given, an obvious element of democratic praxis not to be compromised. We see it as a luxury, a fetish—beyond reach and a product of providence. We have to insist on that democratic minimum in 2011. It starts with removing the most visible enemy of that proposition from his fraudulent perch as INEC chairman.

Maurice Iwu must go. Most people agree, but where are the “Iwu Must Go” campaigns? We can’t wait for Yar’adua to claim credit for it, using Iwu to solidify preparations for another electoral farce and gratefully arranging for a mutually rewarding exit to deceive the naïve.

We can’t invest our 2011 anxieties in Yar’adua’s electoral reforms either. You may believe innocently that the reforms will be a sincere confrontation of our electoral woes. You can be forgiven for this. But as a cushion against disappointment, you should also work with the hypothesis that an electoral system is only as good as the vigilance of voters who participate in it.

Even with Iwu out of the picture, and with a heightened vigilance, the emerging Obasanjo-Atiku-Yaradua trifecta—or one element of it—may yet prevail in 2011. But this triumph of the status quo would once more be a product of our curious willingness to accept the unacceptable and adjust complacently to perennial electoral adversity.

Robot  # 1 | 10.02.2009 11:07

The presidency is an unforgiving office. Its occupant does not have the luxury of trial and error. There are no do-overs. That is why it is not for the ill-prepared, the unprepared. Like Umaru Yar’adua. At the root of the current lull in presidential leadership is the fact that the current president never imagined his political future in the presidency. Aso Rock residency has been an incidental occurrence in the convoluted political career of Mr. Yar’adua. Although carefully engineered by ex-president Obasanjo as insurance against instant recompense, there has been nothing careful or deliberate about how Yar’adua has embraced his unexpected political transformation. As a product of and reluctant protagonist in another man’s ambitious script, Yar’adua didn’t have to develop a temperament suited to the presidency. Groping for direction is thus inevitable. Plunged into an unfamiliar political firmament, Y...Read the full article.

olusiji  # 2 | 10.02.2009 12:25

Well, permit me to shock you a little. Iwu is just an addition to the problem. He really is not the main problem. Given the current electoral act which gives an incumbent Executive the power to appoint INEC chairman who is expected to neutrally arbitrate and conduct a fair contest between opponents of his benefactor and the man who signed his letter of engagement, nothing can happen to make elections right. Only the reform properly debated and adopted with serious imput from opposition parties will steer us away from armagedon in 2011. Again, Babangida's option A4 worked for Abiola and the rest of Nigeria as only this formula has been acknowledged as successful in a free and fair contest. Finally the number of political parties is a joke. You cannot achieve critical mass of opposition with 50 political parties. The Reform must set stringent criteria for party formation. Only these and the deliberate intention of a Government in power to limit the Police and soldiers to their beat in electoral matters will give us a good election. Without successful conduct of election in 2011, we may be engaged in some form of civil war as angry combatants make the Country ungovernable. By the way, who told you Yar'Adua and Turei will be leaving in 2011?

Ebe  # 3 | 10.02.2009 12:49

Again, Babangida's option A4 worked for Abiola and the rest of Nigeria as only this formula has been acknowledged as successful in a free and fair contest. Finally the number of political parties is a joke. Olusiji, Thanks for your comments, especially about the current electoral act being the original evil and Iwu's misbehavior being ultimately a product of that act. Point taken. But why undermine your own point by promoting Option A4 when the premise of your persuasive argument is that the man/woman superintending the election and his/her loyalty is more important than the electoral system adopted? I actually think you have a point there, so I am not sure that with Iwu or his clone in charge of INEC and with his loyalty firmly fixed on Yar'adua (or his annointed), 2011 will be any better than 2007 even with Option A4. By the way, who told you Yar'Adua and Turei will be leaving in 2011? Na you talk am o!

ariteni  # 4 | 10.02.2009 13:03

The Ruling PDP is a "listening organisation": Chief Ogbulafor over to you. Prof Maurice Iwu has a Constitutional Term. (It is wrong to always see Iwu as the issue). The opposition is a joke! Utomi will not step down for Buhari. Atiku will not step down for Buhari. Babangida will not allow Buhari to rule. "Human Rights" activists argue that Registration of parties is a fundamental right. (which is wrong but the court said so) So, numerous useless Parties are on the Books. Kalu and Atiku are "sleeping" members of PDP. It is turn of Ndigbo to rule but North will not release the mandate. Kingibe, Rimi and Atiku are waiting like cats waiting for the rat but are unable to give Yar'Adua the famous "Abuja Tea". Babangida is consulting to find a way to "salvage" Nigeria. The so-called masses refused to vote for "the People's Advocate" when he "contested"! Famous and successful Nigerians e.g Wole Soyinka would neither stand election nor sponsor candidates. etc etc etc My brother, Ebe, I thank you for your forsight. The problem is more complicated but not insurmountable. In a system that works, nothing prevents a diabetic from ruling. (Baba Reagan used to sleep while govt was being run in his name) Nigeria is forever grateful to the Anti-Obasanjo elements for promoting democracy by the third term devil and substituting Yar Adua to avert a DICTATORSHIP. Nigeria is also grateful to the North for a Masters Degree Holder as President. I agree with you that we need to plan ahead. Since we still run the party system, the ball is in the court of the Ruling Party - the PDP. It will be an audacity of audacities to try foisting Yar Adua on Nigeria in 2011. No comments on your OPTION A4 views.

Gongo-aso  # 5 | 10.02.2009 13:32

The emergence and persistence of Yar Adua is a disaster to Nigeria, Africa and the Black Race. Little wonder Africa is the laughing stock of the world. With a disorganised geographical region arrogantly called "Niger area"= Nigeria, poverty will remain "okay" as few looters continue to thrive n flourish on the staggered collective wealth of a disorientated people. Beyond Yar Adua can only work if it is equal to beyond Nigeria. Odawise, forget it!

isola  # 6 | 10.02.2009 20:16

Thank you Ebe and the villagers who have commented on your piece. I wish to respectfully make the following comments; It is undemocratic and a denial of the right of free association for anyone to establish criteria to establish political parties. This proviso did NOT exist in our country until 1978, a creation of the military. Even in colonial Nigeria it did not. In the first republic there were eighty <80> political parties in Nigeria. Sovereignty belongs to the Nigerian people who can invest it temporarily in a political party if the party wins their vote. Outright grants for political parties ought to be abolished forthwith and that will whittle down the number as many just exist to collect these grants. We can have a provision that any party that does not win X% of total votes cast in an election is not entitled to any grant. The parties concerned will die natural deaths, because it means that Nigerians have spoken. I have serious doubts about whether this presidential system is best for our country. But that is a debate for another day. Part of the problem is what Ebe has already alluded to, investing the holder of the office of the president with all kinds of powers of appointments;EFCC;INEC etc. Look at how Obasanjo brazenly used the police and army to rig election in 2003, 2007, totally disenfranchising the Nigerian people. So for the purpose of INEC,the composition should be throw wide open to the professional class, academics, the bar, all kinds of interest groups and subject to confirmation by the senate. The president should have NO operational control over INEC. Funding for INEC should come from the consolidated revenue of the federation and first line charge. Option A4 seems to be acknowledged as being successful though I prefer secret ballot. A lot depends on what the electoral reform committee headed by former CJ Uwais has recommended too. We are all waiting with bated breath for this document. As Ebe rightly points out, we must do all we can, to do away with the abuses of the past in 2011.

DaBishop  # 7 | 11.02.2009 01:11

Prof Maurice Iwu has a Constitutional Term. (It is wrong to always see Iwu as the issue). The opposition is a joke! Utomi will not step down for Buhari. Atiku will not step down for Buhari. Babangida will not allow Buhari to rule. "Human Rights" activists argue that Registration of parties is a fundamental right. (which is wrong but the court said so) So, numerous useless Parties are on the Books. Kalu and Atiku are "sleeping" members of PDP. It is turn of Ndigbo to rule but North will not release the mandate. Kingibe, Rimi and Atiku are waiting like cats waiting for the rat but are unable to give Yar'Adua the famous "Abuja Tea". Babangida is consulting to find a way to "salvage" Nigeria. The so-called masses refused to vote for "the People's Advocate" when he "contested"! Famous and successful Nigerians e.g Wole Soyinka would neither stand election nor sponsor candidates. etc etc etc Thanks Ebe for the insightful article. Isola's quote above also captured it. The problems fester because we are not willing to engage the system...to be the change we need. IMHO there are 3 parties to the game in politics in Nigeria 1. The Cabal 2. The intelligentia 3. The Poor Masses Of the 3 the cabal is always ruling by itself or through proxies. The inteligentia is the group best trained and fitted to rule, but they are busy fighting tribal wars on the internet, or seeking for crumbs by selling their souls. The critical mass that votes is often bribed, bullied or tricked to vote AGIP (Any Government In Power) because being at the bottom of the ladder, with no resources, they would go for any little promise regarding personal benefits...they are manipulated each time. What the intelligentia need do is to form a party or adopt a coalition of parties that would use the Civil rights/progressive axis for communication, with the policies and structure of the educated (and diaspora connection/since we got the vote) write policies and to sponsor a candidate like Pat Utomi if he repents. Do simple policies and plans like roads, hospitals, schools...not dogun turenchi economics...no poor person understands such...leave that post election... Get a coalition that may have like Fashola and some performing educated persons on board aligned with some radical northerners like Umar, not the stale IBB, RIMI, BUHARI caked manure to recycle their cronies ad infinitum. Diaspora can have a say if they actively begin to plan instead of sit to criticise persons who are far less intelligent but always ruling because they dare throw their hats into the ring. You start small, at the council level, take your local government and show what can be done with a little money and a plan.

Harmonious  # 8 | 12.02.2009 01:41

=ariteni;323878>The Ruling PDP is a "listening organisation": Chief Ogbulafor over to you. Prof Maurice Iwu has a Constitutional Term. (It is wrong to always see Iwu as the issue). The opposition is a joke! Utomi will not step down for Buhari. Atiku will not step down for Buhari. Babangida will not allow Buhari to rule. "Human Rights" activists argue that Registration of parties is a fundamental right. (which is wrong but the court said so) So, numerous useless Parties are on the Books. Kalu and Atiku are "sleeping" members of PDP. It is turn of Ndigbo to rule but North will not release the mandate. Kingibe, Rimi and Atiku are waiting like cats waiting for the rat but are unable to give Yar'Adua the famous "Abuja Tea". Babangida is consulting to find a way to "salvage" Nigeria. The so-called masses refused to vote for "the People's Advocate" when he "contested"! Famous and successful Nigerians e.g Wole Soyinka would neither stand election nor sponsor candidates. etc etc etc My brother, Ebe, I thank you for your forsight. The problem is more complicated but not insurmountable. In a system that works, nothing prevents a diabetic from ruling. (Baba Reagan used to sleep while govt was being run in his name) Nigeria is forever grateful to the Anti-Obasanjo elements for promoting democracy by the third term devil and substituting Yar Adua to avert a DICTATORSHIP. Nigeria is also grateful to the North for a Masters Degree Holder as President. I agree with you that we need to plan ahead. Since we still run the party system, the ball is in the court of the Ruling Party - the PDP. It will be an audacity of audacities to try foisting Yar Adua on Nigeria in 2011. No comments on your OPTION A4 views. On the issue of 3rd term I have a different take. It is fashionable to condemn Obj and blame him for inflicting us with Yar'adua, but if we take some time to reflect and then empathize with him we can imagine what he was going through. Here was a man who left a vibrant and developing country in 1979 and came back to meet a basket case in 1999. He truly must have had some regrets on his successors. Then as 2007 approached he was faced with the fact that if he allowed a genuine free and fair election either IBB or Atiku would have emerged. Put yourself in Obj's shoes and unemotionally empathize with him. To put it in perspective, handing over to either of these two would have been equal to a pastor founding a church and when he is about to retire handing over to a demon because that was who the church members would choose to replace him! As it became obvious as 2007 approached that it was either IBB or Atiku, the man became ever more anxious. I can imagine his anguish. History was about to repeat itself. He had paid off the national debt and saved up $50 billion only for these two with their known proclivities to take over! How many of us can truly doubt what IBB or Atiku would have done with Nigeria if they had had the chance? I believe that it was in this desperation that he searched for someone who could be considered honest and if none could be found then at least the least thieving person will do. Many of those who cry for a free and fair election in Nigeria will be disgusted at who Nigerians will choose as a leader. It will not be an Obama like figure or a man of purpose, it will be a man who knows how to throw money about irrespective of how he made it. Remember that over 70% of us live on less than $1 a day. I ask you my compatriots, can you not remember the terrible decisions we took when we were hungry. That is why in the West they have TV ads that advise people not to shop for food when they are hungry because they will be surprised at what they buy.

chimby  # 9 | 12.02.2009 05:02

On the issue of 3rd term I have a different take. It is fashionable to condemn Obj and blame him for inflicting us with Yar'adua, but if we take some time to reflect and then empathize with him we can imagine what he was going through. Here was a man who left a vibrant and developing country in 1979 and came back to meet a basket case in 1999. He truly must have had some regrets on his successors. Then as 2007 approached he was faced with the fact that if he allowed a genuine free and fair election either IBB or Atiku would have emerged. Put yourself in Obj's shoes and unemotionally empathize with him. To put it in perspective, handing over to either of these two would have been equal to a pastor founding a church and when he is about to retire handing over to a demon because that was who the church members would choose to replace him! As it became obvious as 2007 approached that it was either IBB or Atiku, the man became ever more anxious. I can imagine his anguish. History was about to repeat itself. He had paid off the national debt and saved up $50 billion only for these two with their known proclivities to take over! How many of us can truly doubt what IBB or Atiku would have done with Nigeria if they had had the chance? I believe that it was in this desperation that he searched for someone who could be considered honest and if none could be found then at least the least thieving person will do. Many of those who cry for a free and fair election in Nigeria will be disgusted at who Nigerians will choose as a leader. It will not be an Obama like figure or a man of purpose, it will be a man who knows how to throw money about irrespective of how he made it. Remember that over 70% of us live on less than $1 a day. I ask you my compatriots, can you not remember the terrible decisions we took when we were hungry. That is why in the West they have TV ads that advise people not to shop for food when they are hungry because they will be surprised at what they buy. I Sincerely don't agree with your assertion Harmoniuos. The whole essence of Democracy is the FREEDOM of CHOICE.It doesn't matter if at the end of the day we choose the DEVIL to rule us in as much as we have made that choice as a people, Democracy is said to be at play. I can't bet you that the power brokers in America if given the chance would never have allowed a black man to rule over them. Once that choice of freedom is removed from people then we are no longer practising democarcy. The General killed us all when he foisted his sick stooge on us and we are paying for allowing that to happen. I still believe that the biggest problem we have in this country has got to be the way we got our independence.Given to us on a platter of Gold.That is the sole reason why we can take anything from our leaders and that is why our leaders force down anything on us.