Why the April 2007 Elections might not hold - and what must be done

Mar

2007

By Mobolaji Aluko

Why the April 2007 Elections might not hold - and what must be done for it not to be a fiasco

by Mobolaji E. Aluko, PhD
Burtonsville, MD, USA
Saturday, March 24, 2007

Introduction

I begin this essay with the following instructive excerpt from TheSun newspaper, credited to Prince Afegbua, acting national chairman of the NDP (National Democratic Party):

QUOTE

The law provides for 500-600 voters per polling unit. INEC claimed it registered as much as 20-25,000 persons per registration centre. How does it intend to distribute the figure into the respective polling units when it has no facility to determine that? On election day, people will be roaming the streets, from one mango tree to another in search of where to vote. And in a matter of hours, results will be announced in Iwu's bedroom, indicating a free and fair election with 101% attendance. You know electoral miracles are in large supply in Nigeria and since Professor Iwu is a miracle worker, it will be a good judgement to please his courtiers and their uncelebrated masters, at the expense of the people for whom the elections are meant."

UNQUOTE

Compatriots, the above observation is the MAJOR problem that INEC is currently battling with right now, which is why, just a few weeks before April 14, no voters register has been released despite all the loud depositions of INEC to the contrary. Indeed, some names were pasted all over the country for VERIFICATION of names, but by now - and by law both on March 1 and within 60 days of the General Elections - the voter register should have been published for every one to see, and even CD/DVDs given to each political party.

Without people knowing what polling station is theirs, how do we ensure that people are properly accredited when they go to vote, WITHOUT going "from mango tree to mango tree" ? [Personally, I too was registered under a mango tree - but out of season ! :-)]

With the electronic registration that Iwu and his gang had insisted upon, the intial plan of 1 registration machine per 4 polling units had to be abandoned when there were not enough machines, and many of those that they had broke down. So they were happy to register any and all that came, without respect to what polling station that they would vote in. If the registration had been manual, then a polling station with registration book having the last line as 500 would terminate registration at that point.

Having more than 500 people register at any one polling unit was violation of Electoral Law No. 1.

Now that they have all been registered, where will they ACTUALLY vote? That is what inquiring minds want to know. Will they be able to vote in ANY polling station? Will the electronic validation machines have - on a DVD or flash disk - ALL the names of people in that ward, LOCAL GOVERNMENT, State, or in the whole nation? Or will there be a national database in the clouds somewhere that will have to be electronically accessed? If electronic access is required, what about if NEPA/PHCN strikes?

These are so many more questions than there are answers.

Without these questions answered, these upcoming elections will be a fiasco, no thanks to INEC chairman Maurice Iwu, who, due to his stubbornness, insisted in effect on electronic voter registration WITHOUT considering these other factors. He would have, on top of that, foisted electronic VOTING on us all if people had not INSISTED otherwise.

Rather than consider these logistics, he has spent his time on disqualifications and talking about "mind-sets" and election violence.

What to do?

We are headed for a fiasco unless:

1. .a hurried/iimmediate amendment to the Electoral law is done to permit more than 500 people who may have registered in any polling station or registration center to vote in any polling station of their choice WITHIN their local government.

2. local government databases are compiled as the basis of registration. You should be able to vote in ANY polling station in the local government that you registered at.

3. we insist that without further delay, INEC release the voters register/database that it has RIGHT now. After all, it has given a state-by-state breakdown of registered voters already: how did it get those numbers ?

http://nigerianmuse.com /important_documents/?u=Inec _2007_Information_on_Voters _Registered_by_State.htm

4. no curfews on Election Day. Voters should be free to vote where they can within their local governments.

5. we have the Modified Open Ballot System (MOBS) of the June 12 variety, which enables people to first line up from 7 am to 10 am, and then vote from 10 am to 12 noon. This can be repeated from 1 pm to 4 pm, and voting from 4 pm to 6 pm. In fact, this is the ONLY system that will ameliorate the fiasco of 10,000 registered voters in a polling unit rather than 500 as required. This way, one can direct surplus voters to other polling units, and ensure that all vote within a specified period.

6. voting is extended to two days each. That is April 14/15 and April 21/22 to take care of the voters' crush that might happen in any given polling station.

7. INEC comply strictly with the provisions that all results will be ANNOUNCED on site and DISPLAYED on boards. INEC should go the extra mile of RECORDING each announcement and PHOTOGRAPHING each of

display board. The political parties polling agents will be wise to do the same - such evidence will come in handy later in the event of hanky-panky by Iwu's INEC.

I rest my case for now.

______________________________ ______________________________ ___________________________

THE SUN

NO TO ELECTION!
It is in the interest of Nigeria that this election does not hold —NDP chairman

By VINCENT UKPONG KALU

Saturday, March 24, 2007

Acting National Chairman of the National Democratic Party (NDP), Prince Afegbua, has reiterated the commitment of the party to ensure that the general elections scheduled for next month do not hold. He says it is in the interest of both Nigeria and Nigerians that the elections are put off for the time being to enable the authorities to probably perfect the framework for such elections.

Reacting to questions from Saturday Sun Thursday, Afegbua justified the NDP's decision to drag INEC to court and get the courts to stop the commission from conducting the polls next month, saying it is the least the party can do to safeguard democracy in the country.

In a suit brought before the Federal High Court in the Abuja, NDP is seeking a perpetual injunction restraining the electoral body or its agents from conducting the general elections scheduled from April 14, 2007 until the provisions of section 2(2) of the defendant's guidelines for registration of voters is complied with by the INEC.

The party claims that INEC has never complied by the relevant sections of Electoral Act, 2006 and the 1999 constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria concerning the conduct of general elections.

Defending the actions of his party, Afegbua said they have the rights to defend Nigerians, especially the voters who even though were registered by INEC do not know their voting centres because of the vagaries of the voters registration by INEC.

"We have every cause to defend the rights of Nigerians and particularly the voters who may be registered by INEC but do not know where to vote on election day. The mobile nature of the registration process has its own implication for its transparency. People were detached from their polling stations during registration, hence it will be extremely difficult to distribute them accordingly to their polling units on election day."

In its statement of claims, the NDP avers that, that INEC by the power vested on it shall maintain and update on a continuous basis, a National Register of voters, shall cease not later than 120 days before any election, including General elections schedule to start on 14th April, 2007.

The acting National Chairman of NDP said that the electoral commission did not abide by the provision of this law. According to him, the law stipulates that INEC "should provide an electronic or other copy of the designated registration centres prior to the commencement of the voters registration exercise for purpose of any election including the General elections commencing on the 14th of April,2007."

Against the anomalies by the electoral body in handling and registration of eligible voters for the April polls, Afegbua posits that credible election begins with credible and unambiguous voters registration which should be carried out at designated and known centres. He also notes that irregularity in voters revalidation is the prima facie for electoral fraud "Voters Registration is the number one document for any credible election. The voters' population can only be ascertained from a credible and authenticated Voters Register. It helps in determining the number of ballot papers. It helps political parties in drawing up strategies to access the voters, before and during electioneering campaigns. The absence of a Voters Register, therefore, is a recipe for electoral fraud and rigging.

"In 2003 general elections, there was no Voters Register in place, hence electoral petition relating to over-voting or under-voting could not be substantiated at the tribunal, the reason why Gen. Buhari lost his case at the Supreme Court. If the trend is allowed to continue without arresting it, a time will come when elections will no longer be conducted, but mere selection and anointment of candidates to represent themselves order that the people."

Afegbua also threw challenge to Nigerians who may probably not be comfortable with his party's line of argument to point to "anywhere in the world, where elections are conducted without a Voters Register. Democracy is an inclusive and participatory game. But once the people (voters) are excluded in the process, it no longer retains its election status, but anointment and window dressing."

He further stressed the need for early preparation in a serious issues like elections. He wondered why INEC should choose to register 20-25,000 persons per registration centre when the law provides for 500-600 voters per polling unit. "We have to imbibe the culture of starting a race on time, so that we could fall in line with the tale of the feeble tortoise that defeated the hare in the long run. The delay in commencing the Voters Registration process, whether deliberate or otherwise, has brought home this ant-ridden faggot, hence the lizards must visit the process. Professor Iwu's assurances are lameduck and face-saving, just to give credit to a bad process. Any election conducted anywhere in the world without a register of voters is as good as anointment and selection. It can never stand the test of a true, transparent, free and fair election. Never!never!

"The law provides for 500-600 voters per polling unit. INEC claimed it registered as much as 20-25,000 persons per registration centre. How does it intend to distribute the figure into the respective polling units when it has no facility to determine that? On election day, people will be roaming the streets, from one mango tree to another in search of where to vote. And in a matter of hours, results will be announced in Iwu's bedroom, indicating a free and fair election with 101% attendance. You know electoral miracles are in large supply in Nigeria and since Professor Iwu is a miracle worker, it will be a good judgement to please his courtiers and their uncelebrated masters, at the expense of the people for whom the elections are meant.

We all have to safe democracy by ensuring that voters' rights are protected".

Your Comments

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Robot

# 1 | 24.03.2007 22:46

	...Read the full article.

forshow3 forshow3 is offline

# 2 | 26.03.2007 02:55

	Prof Aluko, the election should not hold because Prof Iwu made up the figure please see below... How can jigawa state have 1.7 million voters when Jigawa state population is less than 2 million.. see why below.. from satellite picture Jigawa state have less than 60,000 houses to be modest really less than 50,000.. but let me add 10,000 more houses.. Land mass does not translate to population... Canada have more land than the USA.. but the USA population is 10 times the population of Canada.. What are the factor that affect population 1. access to water 2 Climate condition 3 jobs. 4 Housing 5. access to food this are just the 5 I can remember for now.. Look at the five... North against south... 1 the south have more access to water than the north... 2 The climatic condition in the south is better than the north. 3 Jobs .. there are more white color jobs in the south than th north 4. Housing , the houses are better because of the quick acceptance of the white man culture. 5. Access to sea port means accept to food and climate condition affect soil and crop grow better in better climate than in area without good climate.. THIS IS A SCIENTIFIC PRINCIPLE , note this is not an hypothesis but a theory.. find out the different between the two... Now.. let us look at the 2006 census figure.. I am an engineer and I have study the satellite picture of Nigeria.. and gone as far as count number of houses in this satellite picture... here are my finding... I am willing to share this picture and count the number of houses per state before the senate. here aer something you need to see.. Please see this picture below, this is the satellite picture of kastina state, This cover more than half of the land size of the presense katsina state, We did count the numbers of houses on this satellite picture, it was less than 9,800 houses , According to the 1991 census figures this area you see on this satellite picture is suppose to have 935,677 people, mr Makama would decleared in the 2006 a population census for this area of kastina state based on the grown rate as 1,444,123 if you doubt the number of houses please zoom in and count the houses yourself, Now let us do the maths involve, to find the population density of this area, is Total population of 1,444,123 divided by the number of houses, 1,444,123 divided 9,800 = 147.064 people per house, Here again is the picture, do you think 147 people live in a house on the average, in kastina state, please remember we did calculate kano city to be 33 people per house on mr makama 2006 census figure. So is mr makama saying that kastina state person per house is more than Kano city and also more than lagos, the census figure most be cancel, I would bring you more picture again, http://wikimapia.org/#y=12593601&x=7315521&z=15&l=0&m=s Jigawa state is it fair that some local govt have less than 30,000 people , while other local govt have 1,000,000 , but collect the same amount from the federal account, Do you know that Jigawa have less than 60,000 houses but makama claim Jigawa is 4.3 or so million, population density of Jigawa state is 4,300,000 divided by 60,000 gives 4,300,000 divide by 60,000 === 71 people per houses on the average, Is that possible, The census needs to be cancel, Now if you use the house per person figure of kano city of 33 people per house to calculate give figures, the total population of jigawa should be about, 60,000 houses x 33== 1,980,000 people in jigawa state, maximum figure. http://wikimapia.org/#y=12360711&x=9734573&z=14&l=0&m=s I dare Mr makama and the senate of the federal republic of Nigeria to take me up on this, So How did Prof Iwu come up with his voter register for Jigawa state, when there are less than 60,000 and not more than 2 million people in the state.

ikechukwu ikechukwu is offline

# 3 | 26.03.2007 08:32

	Unforfunately, infact very unfortunately, there is no free and fair election on the table come April. INEC has deliberately bungled the election. What I have found out from people clamoring for the election is that they, themselves, can not see any concrete measures taken by INEC on these elections to be succesful, what they are banking on now is just sentiment. No tangible or concrete structure on the ground by INEC because it is all a deliberate design. Under this present scenario anybody hoping or thinking he is contesting election, not under PDP, but on another party will be lucky if INEC records that he even voted for himself. The election as it is now can not hold, not because we want it to be so, but because 'the owners of Nigeria' want it so and theyve made everything possible for it to be so. Holding the election is a disservice to Nigeria as a country and Nigerians as a people. there is no way what Iwu is promising us can ever be election, because, abinitio, Iwu has already messed it up./ It is foolhardy for anyone to say there is enough preparation for election to be held in april because ther is none and the person knows it. I challenge anyone with contrary opinion on INEC preparations to come out.

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