Here is why.

THE IMPEACHMENT OPTION

According to Section 146(2) of the 1999 Constitution, in the absence of both the President and Vice-President,  the Senate President (in this case Senator Ken Nnamani) will become president and must arrange for elections within 3 months, after which the winner will hold office for the rest of the  un-expired time of the last holder:

146. (1) The Vice-President shall hold the office of President if the office of President becomes vacant by reason of death or resignation impeachment, permanent incapacity or the removal of the President from office for any other reason in accordance with section 143 of this Constitution.

(2) Where any vacancy occurs in the circumstances mentioned in subsection (1) of this section during a period when the office of Vice-President is also vacant, the President of the Senate shall hold the office of President for a period of not more than three months, during which there shall be an election of a new President, who shall hold office  for the unexpired term of office of the last holder of the office.

Here is what that means: as of today, only President Obasanjo has sent some documents to the Senate and House merely "informing" them about Vice-President Atiku's numerous infractions, but hinting that impeachment proceedings against him might be a wise decision.   One can expect that any day now, Vice-President Atiku, armed with all the documents that he has been revealing publicly, also has the capacity (and presence of mind) to retaliate and place similar "information" before the National Assembly.   

Now, if next week Tuesday (say September 26, the first day of next week's National Assembly meetings), an impeachment notice is given, and proceedings are started against both Obasanjo and Atiku, then it is likely that it will take at least one month to successfully impeach them. That takes us to October 31.   Then starting November 1, 2006 as the new President, Senator Nnamani (after probably choosing House Speaker Bello Masari as new Vice-President) must arrange for elections before February 1, 2007.

Nnamani may want to complicate matters by firing INEC's chairman Prof. Maurice Iwu instantly, and choose a new person entirely who will have to learn the ropes.   If President Nnamani means well – that is, if he does not have a secret agenda, or does not become tempted or "earnestly urged," to extend himself BEYOND May 29, 2007 – he would do well to retain Prof. Iwu. Iwu might then (as usual) confidently declare that yes, he can hold the elections on Saturday, January 20, 2007 .  Hopefully, that will be just enough time to count and announce election results before February 1, assuming there are no major issues.

Now if the newly-elected president begins February 1, 2007 ,  the current holder (Obasanjo)'s term ending May 31, 2007 means that the elected president will be in power for only 4 months !   

Luckily, before those four months are past, we still have the already scheduled state and federal elections April 14 and April 21 – to elect those who will go from 2007 to 2011.   Yet we are not sure that INEC is even quite ready for the presently scheduled presidential election for April 21, 2007 or the run-offs anticipated. How will it then be able run presidential elections in January 2007, and another one in April 2007?

So, dear compatriots, do you see the dilemma that we are in?  Much as we would like to, we cannot afford to impeach both of these gentlemen:  We are most probably stuck with them till 2007!   A strong National Assembly censure of them is in order though, while we just "beg" or frighten them to leave us alone come May 29, 2007 – after also "forcing" them to organize free and fair elections.

THE MILITARY OPTION

Before discussing this anathema, it is appropriate to condole the Military, the nation and family members, friends and associates of the deceased over the tragic air accident over the hills of Benue State which took the lives of ten generals and three others on Sunday, September 17, 2006.  Out of Nigeria's five military divisions (1, 2, 3, 81^st and 82 ^nd) , the lives of two of their General Officers Commanding – Major-General A. Nuhu Bamali of the 2 ^nd Div. and Major-General J.O. Adesunloye of the 81^st Division (both appointed just in March 2006) – were taken so suddenly.   Others who died include Major-General. J.O. Agbola, Major-General.S . O. Otubu, Major-General S. M. Lemu, Major-General. J. T. U. Ahmedu,Major-General P. M. Haruna, Major-General. D. Duniya, Brigadier-General Y. J. Braimah, Brigadier-General M. B. Bawa and Lieutenant-Colonel N. A. Mohammed and the pilot.

One hopes that a full probe will be conducted, and the results released, so that all suspicions of foul play are squelched.

Whatever be the case, the present fiasco at the Presidency should not be an invitation, witting or unwitting, for the Military to return.   Many of us submit that most of our current problems are a result of past military and paramilitary incursions and abysmal misrule, and that it would be a retrograde step to go back to military rule, despite frustrations about the "quasi-military" civilian administration that we now have.   Supporting empirical evidence is that while the military has interrupted civilian rule only twice (in 1966 and in 1979), the military have interrupted THEIR OWN GOVERNMENTS successfully or unsuccessfully at least eight times over the years.   Consequently, their own verdict is fully against their own rule.

2007 ELECTION

Our current frustrations at our leaders particularly at the national level should move us to insist on fresh rulers in 2007 DEVOID of military baggage – that is with full civilian credentials.   We must insist on leaders who are freely and fairly elected, with vision and team leadership skills, and fully prepared to be always accountable, transparent and to act with integrity.