FRIDAY ESSAY:  The Arithmetic Inevitability (Almost) of an Obama Democratic Party Presidential Nomination

By

Mobolaji E. Aluko, PhD

alukome@gmail.com

Burtonsville, MD, USA

February 22, 2008

I like looking at numbers – and in this intriguing Obama-Clinton contest, the numbers don’t look good for Hillary.

First some facts: who will be the Presidential candidate-nominee between these two political gladiators  is the one that has the most number of delegates AT the Democratic Convention in Denver come August 25-28, 2008, not before.  So we are STILL in the realm of speculation here, in the realm of probabilities and possibilities, rather than realities.

But we must not let that fact arrest our speculations.

There are a total 4,049 delegates, out of which 796 – or 19.6% - are so-called Superdelegates, unpledged. The rest (3,273) are divided – and thereby pledged - in a way effectively PROPORTIONAL to the percentage won by the contending candidates.  A winner emerges when his or her number of pledged delegates totals 2,025, or failing that, when the pledged plus unpledged delegates total 2,025.

As of this minute, according to the CNN website http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/, Obama has 1,158 pledged delegates and Clinton 1,016, with 26 for Edwards, giving a total of 2,200 delegates.  The MSNBC website puts the numbers as 1,168 and 1,018 respectively, with 26 also for Edwards, for a total of  2,212 delegates.  Since these two sets of numbers are not too different, for our purpose here, we will use the CNN information.

This means that from the remaining 1,073 delegates that can be pledged, Obama needs 867 delegates (or 81%), while Clinton needs 1,009 (or 94%) if they are to win WITHOUT the help of  superdelegates.

Now if experience in the forty-eight contests reported so far between the two of them is anything at all, then the ONLY person of the two candidates who can come ANYWHERE close to winning 80% in any ONE contest, not to talk of an average of 80% in ALL the remaining contests is Obama, having won 79%, 76%, 75%, 75%, and 74% in Idaho, Hawaii, Alaska, DC and Kansas respectively out of the 25 contests he has won so far.  On the other hand,   Clinton has only been able to muzzle a 70% in one contest  won in Arkansas, the home state of her husband President Clinton, a former governor of Arkansas.

It is UNLIKELY that either of them will get the kinds of percentages that we have just stated, so it is now clear that the Superdelegates WILL indeed play a role – but based more on what they sense that their voting people tell them rather than on what they themselves wish..

So if we add in the 796 Superdelegates to the 1073 delegates left to get a total of 1869 delegatees,  what kinds of percentages are we looking for for Obama and Clinton, going on from here?  They are 48% and 54% respectively, which appear quite achievable by both candidates just by looking at those numbers by themselves – that is Obama needs less than the majority of all the delegates left, while Clinton needs MORE than the majority – and some.

However,  it is VERY interesting to note that in ALL of the 13 contests that Clinton has won so far, she has averaged only 53.5%, while Obama has averaged 62.5% in all the 25 contests that he has won since Iowa.  In fact, in the past eleven contests all of which Obama has won, it has been a 66% average, compared with the 60% of the earlier 14 contests, meaning that he takes in a 6% added “momentum” into the rest of the contest.

So what is my prediction? I believe that at the end of the day, Barack Obama will win on average 54-60% of the rest of the delegate votes, to win the nomination of Presidential Candidate of the Democratic Party of the USA with a delegate count of  2,181 [ equal to 1158 + 0.54(1869) + 0.54(26)] to Clinton’s 1868 for a delegate lead of of 313 – or just 8% - to 2,295 to 1,754. or 13%.

So folks,  Obama wins over Clinton in August in Denver by between 2181-1868,  and 2295 – 1754.

There you have it – cheery news for all you Obama-Cans, Obama-Crats - and us Obam-Africs.

How Obama will do against McCain in November is the subject of another symposium.

DELEGATE RESULTS SO FAR

CNN

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION /2008/candidates/

Barack Obama       | Hillary Clinton

1,319                     | 1,250

Pledged: 1,158            | Pledged: 1,016

Superdelegates: 161   | Superdelegates: 234

States are shown below in two-letter code and percentages won by each candidate is shown below each state.

Obama States won (23 + District of Columbia + Democrats Abroad DA):

DA |HI | WI | MD | DC | VA | ME | LA | WA | NE | AK | UT | ID | MN | KS | CO | ND | MO | IL | DE | CT | AL | GA | SC | IA

65  |76 | 58| 60  | 75 |  64 | 59  |  57 |  68  |  68 |  75 |  57 | 79 | 66 |  74  |  67 | 61  | 49 | 65 | 53 | 51  | 56 | 67 |  55  | 38

Clinton  States won (13):

CA | NM | AZ | NY | AR | MA | NJ | OK | TN | FL | NV | MI | NH

52  | 49  | 51 |  57 |  70  |  56 | 54 | 55  | 54  | 50 |  51 | 55 | 39

MSNBC

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id /21660914/

Obama - 1,168 (pledged delegates only)

Clinton - 1,018 (pledged delegates only)

BBC / ASSOCIATED PRESS

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in _depth/629/629/7229830.stm

Obama - 1,351  (total delegates)

Clinton - 1,262 (total delegates)

Next set of elections :

Tuesday, March 04 (all primaries)

OH| RI | TX | VT

Tuesday, April 22 (primary)

PA |

Tuesday, May 6 (primaries)

IN | NC

Tuesday, May 13 (primary)

WV|

Tuesday, May 20 (primaries)

KY | OR

Sunday, June 1 (caucus)

Puerto Rico

Needed to Win Nomination - 2,025

Robot  # 1 | 22.02.2008 11:31

I like looking at numbers – and in this intriguing Obama-Clinton contest,...Read the full article.

SBI  # 2 | 22.02.2008 20:16

In fact, in the past eleven contests all of which Obama has won, it has been a 66% average, compared with the 60% of the earlier 14 contests, meaning that he takes in a 6% added “momentum” into the rest of the contest. So what is my prediction? I believe that at the end of the day, Barack Obama will win on average 54-60% of the rest of the delegate votes, to win the nomination of Presidential Candidate of the Democratic Party of the USA with a delegate count of 2,181 < equal to 1158 + 0.54(1869) + 0.54(26)> to Clinton’s 1868 for a delegate lead of of 313 – or just 8% - to 2,295 to 1,754. or 13%. So folks, Obama wins over Clinton in August in Denver by between 2181-1868, and 2295 – 1754. There you have it – cheery news for all you Obama-Cans, Obama-Crats - and us Obam-Africs. How Obama will do against McCain in November is the subject of another symposium. Good job, Prof. I think Obama is likely to win by a larger margin than you predict, and the race may be over before August. The guy seems to have become something like a run away train, since his momentum may be increasing at a rte higher than your calculations, whilst Clinton's train seems to be coming to a halt if you judge from her positions according to poll predictions prior to each race. Look at the last 3 races and check the percentage gain Obama has had over Hilary. Looking ahead at Obama Vs McCain (which frankly I don't like to do) I suspect that by the time even 'the trees start to clap' for Obama McCain would be washed away in an almost farcical no-contest. What most people think may be Obama's undoing, negative press digging something up, could just be what would bury McCain even before the first ballots are cast. Anyway, lets see what happens in TX and OH first. Meanwhile, apart from numbers, here's a sample of other factors in the equation: Fort Worth Paper: Secret Service Ordered End to Gun Checks at Obama Rally By E&P Staff Published: February 22, 2008 8:00 AM ET NEW YORK The Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported late Thursday that security details at Barack Obama's rally in Dallas (of all places) on Wednesday "stopped screening people for weapons at the front gates more than an hour before the Democratic presidential candidate took the stage at Reunion Arena. "The order to put down the metal detectors and stop checking purses and laptop bags came as a surprise to several Dallas police officers who said they believed it was a lapse in security," reported the paper's Jack Douglas, Jr. More than 10 days remain until the Texas primary and a key vote for president. "Dallas Deputy Police Chief T.W. Lawrence, head of the Police Department's homeland security and special operations divisions, said the order -- apparently made by the U.S. Secret Service -- was meant to speed up the long lines outside and fill the arena's vacant seats before Obama came on. '"Sure,' said Lawrence, when asked if he was concerned by the great number of people who had gotten into the building without being checked. But, he added, the turnout of more than 17,000 people seemed to be a 'friendly crowd.'" - http://www.nowpublic.com/world/secret-service-ordered-end-gun-checks-obama-rally SBI

Fjord  # 3 | 23.02.2008 00:09

Well, that's not quite. 1) It is possible to "steal" delegates "pledged" in Caucuses. Meaning, Caucus-pledged delegates aren't as bound as those obtained in primaries. (Th situation for Hawaii is unclear, since the Hawaiian Caucuses are modified-primaries) 2) The "superdelegates", being unpledged, have the freedom to swing whereever they do wish. 3) There're still votes to be cast in about 19 states. The probabilities have shrunk greatly that Mrs. Clinton will be the nominee; but there's no inevitability of an Obama nomination. Barack Obama alluded to this in his speech in Texas. Until the nomination is in the bag. .

tomr  # 4 | 23.02.2008 17:15

Please, Mr Aluko, don't post with PhD behind your name... You don't need to enhance your identity in any form. Thank you