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Introduction
The announcement of Nigeria's intention to number among the
top economies in the world by 2020 has most likely been received by the
generality of Nigerians with large yawns. The simple reason is that we have
passed along this route before as members of this august audience would recall
the promises of famous target dates like 2000 and 2010 which have either ended
up in smoke or become interred with the bones of their inspirers and
initiators. Obviously, the proponents of this new line on the sand have a large
credibility gap to fill in the hearts and minds of ordinary Nigerians who seem
sick and tired of being offered yet another pie in the sky if not, in fact, a
pig in poke. There being no pot of gold at the end of a rainbow, the pervading
sense of deja vu among our people would need to be cured if the proposal
on the table is to have any real chance of fulfillment.
I believe that we are all generally agreed that the state of
our infrastructure and various institutions is such that we would soon land at
the precipice of state failure or national collapse except and unless drastic
measures are taken without further delay to arrest the seemingly inexorable
drift towards apocalypse. Indeed I am on record as saying that our country was
already manifesting symptoms of a failing state if it had not actually become a
failed state. However, since we are by nature an overly optimistic people, it
is not surprising that we still believe that not only can we pull out rabbits
from our hats, we can, in fact, also play in the big leagues a mere thirteen
years from now.
Of course, as a well-endowed and exceptionally gifted
people, Nigerians have all it takes to become a successful actor on the global
economic stage. However, we can only discount Achebe's admonition on our
leadership deficit to our peril. Mercifully, leadership is all about being able
to set goals and identify individuals that can help actualize those goals.
Therefore, if the present leadership can envision where it wishes to take the
country within a particular time frame and ensure that round pegs are put in
round holes, perhaps, at the end of the day, Nigeria would finally be able to
realize its potentials. However, it seems to this observer, at least, that a
holistic approach which visualizes Nigeria's predicament as a matrix of the
structural and managerial is apt to facilitate a worthwhile or tentatively
acceptable prognosis of Nigeria's growth and development within the prescribed
time frame.
It is against this background, therefore, that we would
attempt to interrogate the role and place of our institutions in the context of
the much-trumpeted endeavour by the current governing class to position Nigeria
among the leading countries in the world by the year 2020.
The Imperative of Change and Necessity for New Thinking
As we all know, change is immanent in nature and countries
can be evaluated by their capability to predict changes within their
socio-economic and political environments and manage such novel developments
with least harm or injury to their declared goals. The transition of Nigeria
from a monocultural to a diversified and integrated economy has been the
yearning of most Nigerians, at least, from since the era of the "oil
boom." However, it should be stated right away that nothing has been more
earth-shaking in terms of daring to confront some of the distortions of the
Nigerian economy than what we have witnessed in the last few years.
While the jury might still be out on the success of NEEDS -
the lynch-pin of the reform programme of the Obasanjo Presidency - it should be
conceded that it bore the hallmarks of an attempt to steer the nation's economy
towards recovery. The bold initiative of the CBN Governor to shrink the number
of the banks from 89 to 25 in a bid to enhance effectiveness and competitiveness
in the banking sector would seem to have justified the strategic sensing and
imagination of Professor Soludo.
Taking a queue from the prognosis of Goldman Sachs that
Nigeria would most likely join the ranks of Brazil, Russia, India and China as
one of the 20 largest economies in the world by 2025, Professor Soludo and his
confederates have recently elaborated a blueprint aimed at achieving that goal
five years earlier than that target date - the Financial System Strategy or FSS
2020. In fact, it can safely be assumed that the re-denomination of the Naira
announced recently by the CBN Governor but soon after put in abeyance by the
Presidency was part and parcel of the strategy to re-position the Naira in
anticipation of the role it was expected to play pursuant to FSS 2020. What
becomes of the grand scheme to attain the enviable status of one of 20 most
developed economies in the world by 2020 (henceforth denoted as 20-2020)
without what one of the prime movers of the project considers needful is now
simply a matter of conjecture. Besides, the flip-flops in policy would
inevitably have sent dangerous signals to the rest of the world regarding
consistency and coordination of policies at the highest levels of government.
Nevertheless, it must be admitted that great deeds are, more
often than not, preceded by deep thinking and imagination and the sooner this
is appreciated by all concerned, the better the chances of Nigeria putting
behind it the years of miasma, diffidence and self-doubt. It was the American
President Franklin D. Roosevelt who once said that we have nothing to fear than
fear. In much the same vein, we can here recall the motto of the British SAS:
Who dares, wins! A society in transition, such as ours, should not stifle
initiative but give full reign to fresh, innovative thinking in order for the
nation to take the correct steps towards its rendezvous. Indeed we should
encourage "thinking the unthinkable," to borrow the words of Herman
Khan, if that would lead to solutions of the urgent problems of the day. There
really is nothing wrong in thinking big so long as we can attain our dream. As
the motto of my primary school says, "Aim high but be thorough!"
National Institutions and the Nigerian Factor
Part of the unwholesome baggage that we are saddled with as
a people is the so-called "Nigerian factor" which is supposed to
hinder and hamper the optimal functioning of our institutions. Very often, the
Nigerian factor is an alibi for our collective failures and inadequacies so much
so that it is usually built into transaction costs in the Nigerian economy.
However, the rough edges of doing business in Nigeria can be ironed out through
improvement of our various institutions as well as strengthening the legal
framework for various activities in the national economy. Enhancement of the
law enforcement machinery and conscientization of the generality of the
populace on the need to adhere to due process of law in all their actions would
go a long way in removing the image of the ugly Nigerian from the consciousness
of the international community.
Of course, it is necessary to recognize the limits of law as
an instrument of social change. The law is not a cure-all even if it is an
inevitable tool for facilitating human interaction. While we might not go to
the extent of the ancient Chinese thinker, Shu H'siang, to the effect that a
nation was about to perish when it had most laws, it is simply illusory to
exclude law from any attempt to create a new society. As my old teacher, Lon
Fuller was wont to remind us, law is the enterprise of subjecting human conduct
to the governance of rules. Nonetheless, it is important to bear in mind, if
only for heuristic purposes, the issue of whether law was the harbinger of
change or merely a mirror of faits accompli.
It is submitted that it is through an apprehension of both
the structural and managerial dimensions of the crisis facing our society that
we would be in a vantage position to tease out the strategic choices that we
have to make in order to launch Nigeria along the path of recovery,
socio-economic growth and political development. Put differently, we would need
to harness the benefits of the political economy approach in order to be
properly seized of the problems of underdevelopment confronting our dear
country.
Our national institutions are not operating in a vacuum.
They are functioning in a milieu which celebrates social darwinisn. What we
have on our hands is a dog-eat-dog society or a form of buccaneer capitalism
where everyone is for himself while the devil takes the hindermost. This
pre-disposes the functionaries of the various national institutions to cream
off whatever they can while in office, knowing fully well that in a country of
fools, it is folly to be wise. Since tenure of office is generally tenuous and
unappreciated, many who find themselves in positions of leadership and
authority in our institutions see little wisdom in not making hay while the sun
is shining, more so since even if they violate the Eleventh Commandment by
being caught in the act, the creeping plea bargaining possibilities could offer
a viable soft landing.
It should be stated, however, that not all have sinned.
Nigeria still has a crop of devoted and selfless public office-holders who
remain diligent, loyal and honest. If that was not so, we could all have since
given up on Nigeria. It is precisely the possibilities offered by increase in
the numbers of such patriotic men and women that has enabled Nigeria to pin
some hope on a qualitative turnaround in the country's fortunes. Accordingly,
we just must continue to plod along in the face of all odds in the belief and
hope that things can change.
National Institutions and the Re-positioning of
Nigeria
If indeed Nigeria is keen on fulfilling the prediction of
Goldman Sachs five years earlier than the target year of 2025, then a total
overhaul and re-appraisal of nearly all its institutions constitute a conditio
sine qua non. What is required here is just slightly short of a revolution
in both the conception and workings of our various institutions in order to
place Nigeria at par with the advanced economies within a very short time
frame.
It is well-nigh impossible in this presentation to dilate on
all the institutions requiring adjustment for Nigeria to achieve its stated
goal. What, therefore follows is a brief comment on what is considered as some
of the key institutions relative to the task at hand.
(a) Legal Institutions
As stated earlier, law plays a preeminent role in social
ordering. On account of this, a hard and fresh look would need to be taken of
the legal framework for decision-making in the economy for any success to be
chalked up in what is, arguably, the most ambitious project yet in the Nigerian
experience.
The basis of economic activities in Nigeria being located in
contract and property against the backdrop of the Constitution and adjectival
law generally, considerable thought has to be given to streamlining the way and
manner in which law facilitates everyday living in the country. It is
self-evident that law intermediates in all transactions, be they in relation to
land, such as estate planning, mortgages and other secured credit transactions,
shares, bonds, debentures or intellectual property, the import/export trade and
international finance operations. And, this is not to ignore matters of
inter-personal relations such as marriage and divorce or adoption or, indeed,
gender sensitivity and human rights protection generally. The pervasiveness of
law notwithstanding, the investor, whether local or foreign, would like to be
assured of his day in court in case things get awry. Therefore, we would need
to speedily put in place reforms in the judicial system which would convert our
courts from forums for adjourning justice to institutions where litigants can
expect to get fair and expeditious resolution of their disputes. Besides, our
law of evidence would have to incorporate electronically generated evidence
while our criminal law should encompass novel matters of transnational
criminality such as cybercrime. Our law regarding issues of aviation,
electronic banking, telecommunications, sports, entertainment and other novel
or relatively undeveloped topics would need to adopt international best practices
for us to be able to strike a claim for 20-2020.
Perhaps the institution with the severest problem in terms
of compatibility with the desiderata of 20-2020 is the Police. The situation in
the Police and other law enforcement agencies such as the SSS, Customs and
Immigration are sufficiently well-known to bother recounting here. If Nigeria
is unwilling or not prepared to adopt the Iraqi solution of total disbanding
and re-constitution of the security apparatus, then it should, at least, agree
to consider a fundamental rethinking and re-structuring of the Police and
kindred security agencies if we are going to move anywhere near 20-2020.
The foregoing also applies, mutatis mutandis, to
agencies such as the EFCC, ICPC and the Code of Conduct Bureau. The fact of the
situation is that we need to go back to the drawing board on these bodies in
order to empower them logistics-wise and remove possibilities of arbitrariness,
abuse of power and selective enforcement so as to ensure the fulfillment of
their mandates without the unsavoury manifestations of the recent past.
Security is indeed a first charge in any attempt aimed at re-positioning
Nigeria. A situation of general disrespect for law and order is, quite simply,
dysfunctional, inimical and counter-productive to the strategic interests and
needs of a country such as ours at the present point in time.
(b) Banks and other Financial Institutions
The reforms effected in the banking and insurance sectors in
the recent past are, undoubtedly, geared towards re-positioning Nigerian
financial institutions pursuant to the goal of making the country a key player
in the sub-region and beyond in the not-too-distant future. However, it is an
open secret that despite the taunted gains of the consolidation exercise in the
banking sector, Nigeria's largest banks are still trailing behind South African
banks. The fact that most of our banks are coming back into the capital market
to shore up their capital base and give them greater leverage within the
international financial system is an indication of how much ground that our
banks need to cover in order to be reckoned with in the international finance
market.
What has been said about the banks applies equally if not,
in fact, more strongly to our insurance companies whose capital base, until
very recently, rendered them midget players in minor leagues of the
international insurance business, especially in relation to mega projects,
marine insurance and re-insurance. The usually high returns in terms of
invisible income which Nigeria had hitherto lost to foreign underwriters should
encourage the country's insurance companies to continue to expand their capital
base and improve their managerial capacity in order to maximize the economies
of scale and thereby become key players in the global market. Pursuant
thereto, the activities of all the regulatory bodies in the banking and
financial sectors-the Central Bank, Securities and Exchange Commission, Nigeria
Deposit Insurance Commission, National Insurance Commission, National Pension
Commission-would have to be streamlined to enhance the efficiency of the banks
and insurance companies in a highly competitive world.
Furthermore, the verifying agencies, in particular, CBN and
SEC should endeavour to reduce the time lag between subscription for shares and
allotment in order to encourage prospective investors in the banking and
insurance sectors and the economy generally. A country that wishes to be listed
among the world's leading economies has no choice than conform with international
best practices in all facets of its economy, not least, the banking and
insurance sectors which are the hub of any economy. Investors in the capital
market deserve better protection from stockbrokers some of whom have swindled
them almost with impunity. Admittedly, the Central Shares Clearing System has
initiated the SMS-alert scheme and the special account to protect the investing
public. However, with the interest shown in our emerging market by the outside
world, it is necessary to devise novel means to protect investors, whether
local or foreign, from the antics of some of the operators on the Stock
Exchange floor if we really intend to become one of the biggest players in the
international finance market, come 2020. The desire of Nigeria for more direct
foreign investment as an emerging capital market also necessitates continued
support for agencies such as the Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission and
the Corporate Affairs Commission so that the much touted "one stop
centre" for foreign investment could become a catalyst for
attracting investment from the capital exporting countries and Nigerians
in the Diaspora.
To the extent that Nigeria has adopted the free market as
the modus operandi of its economic development, to that extent must it
be ready, willing and able to do away with what Ted Heath once characterized as
"the ugly and unacceptable face of capitalism." This is especially
true of a country such as ours which intends to break loose from its deformed
capitalist state status and transform into one of the world's key capitalist
players within an incredibly short spate of time. Consequently, it can be
stated without equivocation that if we cannot iron out the creases in the
capital market right now, the 20-2020 goal could well become a pipe dream.
(c) Energy Institutions
It is self-evident that without the ability to power the
economy, it is chimerical to envision the location of Nigeria among the world's
best at the target date. If, today, we can only generate about 3000 megawatts
of electricity and are, therefore, unable to guarantee 24 hours power supply at
any place in the country, it goes without saying that it is but a forlorn hope
to arrive at the prescribed destination except and unless drastic measures are
taken to beef up electricity generation, transmission and transmission.
President Umaru Yar'Adua has, in fact, threatened to declare an emergency in
the energy sector but it is clear that the emergency already exists. What is
lacking is the much-needed drastic remedy to a drastic situation.
As far as the energy institutions are concerned - Power
Holding Company of Nigeria, the Nigeria Energy Commission, Nuclear Power
Regulatory Agency, NNPC - all they require are their respective marching
orders, based on a well-thought out, integrated energy policy for the country.
The Freudian slip by an ex-Minister that we can only expect uninterrupted power
supply by 2056 should be recognized for the fluke that it was. If we are really
intent on playing in the big leagues by 2020, the power issue must be
considered the topmost of priorities. There are no two ways about it. If we
fail in this sector, we can as well bid goodbye to any aspirations toward 2020.
(d) Educational Institutions
One of Nigeria's worst kept secrets is the deterioration in
the quality and standards of its educational institutions, from kindergarten
right up to the tertiary level. Nigerians are yet to get out of the shock that
none of our universities was listed among the world's best 6000 universities in
a recent ranking. Even among the first 100 universities in Africa, it was
unflattering to learn that the leading Nigerian university could only manage
the 44th position.
Yet, without massive investment in human capital
development, all hope and desire to be listed in the ranks of the top economies
of the world by 2020 can only be mere wishful thinking. The production of the
requisite high-level manpower to drive the engine of the Nigerian economy is
mainly a task entrusted to the tertiary institutions. The examples of India and
Singapore are there for all to see. To produce on a massive scale the necessary
manpower to actualize the dreams and goals of Nigeria for the next decade and a
half, there should be a heavy infusion of funds to rehabilitate and refurbish the
facilities of the country's educational institutions in order to bring them at
par with those of the industrialized world. The current hemorrhage among high
caliber staff, otherwise known as the "brain drain," coupled with the
exodus of our young intending students to foreign institutions constitutes a
massive vote of no confidence on the higher education available within the
country. As President Yar'Adua recently observed, that Nigeria has had to rely
on the expertise of Nigerians in the Diaspora is a telling indictment on human
capital development in the country.
Accordingly, Nigeria has to provide the attractions that
some members of our intelligentsia are seeking elsewhere in the form of
comfortable provisions and requisite ambience for high quality academic
activities. In return, our higher educational institutions would need to bring
their curricula up to the level of the 21st century and offer competitive
pedagogy and comparable research capability as well as a continuing commitment
to public and community service. Furthermore, greater emphasis would need to be
laid on science and technology, especially information and communication
technology in order to speedily bridge the gap between Nigeria and the
industrialized world.
Summary
The efforts of all those who decided to pick up the gauntlet
thrown by Goldman Sachs deserve applause. If some countries had not set
seemingly impossible goals such as landing a man on the moon or moving from the
third to the first world within a particular time frame and succeeded in
achieving them, others would not have dared to dream dreams which look, at
first glance, somewhat utopian. It is in this context, perhaps, that Nigeria's
present vision needs to be understood.
For the thrust towards 20-2020 to bear fruit, however,
Nigeria would have to embrace new thinking, especially in relation to its
institutions and those charged with managing and operating them. Legal
institutions, banks and other financial institutions, institutions of the
energy sector and educational institutions are some of the institutions which
should constitute the core of institutions that require re-tooling in order to
nudge Nigeria along the path of actualizing the 20-2020 objective.
If the country succeeds in this endeavour, Nigeria would
have broken the jinx of failed ambitions and unfulfilled promises. As the most
populous country in Africa, endowed with tremendous natural and mineral
resources, Nigeria is better placed than most countries to realize its goals.
All that is needed is the political will and massive support of a doubting
population. The fact that Nigeria is way behind in the attainment of the
Millennium Development Goals is already a clog in our self-confidence and
generally can-do mentality. Nevertheless, the 20-2020 agenda should, therefore
be another test and opportunity for the Nigerian governing class to
convince an incredulous population that it indeed possesses the wherewithal to
fulfil the nation's destiny.
* Paper presented at the 13th Annual
Nigerian Economic Summit (NES#13), held at Transcorp Hilton Hotel, Abuja,
September 5-7, 2007.
** Professor and Head, Department of
Jurisprudence and International Law, University of Lagos, quondam
Vice-Chancellor, University of Ado-Ekiti.
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Posted by Robot| 14.09.2007 19:58