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MID-WEEK ESSAY: Yar'Adua One
Year Later -Impaired by Imposition, Ill-Preparedness, Illegitimacy and
Ill-Health
By Mobolaji E. Aluko, PhD
alukome@gmail.com
Burtonsville, MD, USA
Introduction
Exactly a year ago today, Umar Musa
Yar'Adua (UMYA) was inaugurated in Abuja as the third Executive President of
Nigeria. His immediate predecessor was civilian Chief Olusegun Obasanjo (May
29, 1999 – May 29, 2007; two terms).who, as a departing military General had
himself installed civilian Alhaji Shehu Shagari (October 1, 1979 – December 31,
1983.) I have purposely made the link between Shagari, Obasanjo and
Yar'Adua because it appears to me that Yar'Adua is suffering from many of the
same symptoms of imposition, ill-preparedness and illegitimacy that Shagari
never could recover from, but which Yar'Adua is now compounding with his own
problems of ill-health.
My assessment of his first year in
office is poor. I would give him a D if grading him.
Let me explain.
Imposition
Until May 2007 when the Third Term
Agenda of President Obasanjo collapsed, it is arguable if anybody in his ruling
PDP could sincerely and openly prepare to take over from him without constantly
looking over his shoulder. The only person who made such a move – first
in 2002/2003 and then again in 2006/2007 – was Vice-President Alhaji Abubakar
Atiku.
We all know what happened to him.
With the collapse of TTA, Obasanjo
had to cast around very quickly for a successor, with at least five
characteristics in mind: (i) he had to be a Northerner, to fulfill
the unofficial rotational motif of the office of the Presidency; (ii) he
had to have some executive experience, meaning that he had to be a current or
former governor, military or civilian; (iii) he had to be relatively clean from
EFCC probings, because Obasanjo had used the EFCC to intimidate many
self-chosen would-be successors, and had therefore limited his own options,
otherwise he would be accused of open hypocrisy; (iv) he had to be personally
loyal enough to Obasanjo to pledge to follow some or all of his programs (the
continuity argument) and (v) he had to protect him (Obasanjo) from the numerous
enemies he made along the way, and the many accusations of
financial and moral corruption that had been swarming around him throughout his
own tenure.
It was only when he was announced
that most of us knew it – even the keenest Nigeria watchers was taken by
surprise – but the ONLY person who fit this bill was Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, then
little-known governor of Northern state of Katsina, and conveniently the
brother of Obasanjo's soldier-soul-mate, the late Shehu Musa Yar'Adua, fatal
victim of Abacha's Gulag..
Knowing that the rather
little-known and in fact colorless Yar'Adua could not plead his own case in a
free-and-fair contest, Obasanjo made it a do-or-die proposition to impose
Yar'Adua, first on the ruling PDP party – stepping on many ambitious
political bodies in the process – and then went on to hector the whole country
as he held Yar'Adua's hands up and substituted his own voice everywhere in the
campaign hustings. Obasanjo could not have campaigned harder if he himself were
on the ticket. Applying the intimidatory antics of Ribadu's EFCC (on
presidential candidates like Vice-President Abubakar Atiku and wannabes like
Rivers State Governor Peter Odili, etc.), the compliant INEC machinery under
Prof. Maurice Iwu, and the police complicity of IG Sunday Ehindero's NPF
completed the equation to "deliver" Yar'Adua in the worst flawed elections
ever in Nigeria's history in April 2007.
Yar'Adua's imposition therefore
created enemies (of his own and his godfather Obasanjo) and lukewarm supporters
both within and without his party, with its attendant consequences.
I believe that in this his first
year, he has had to fight some of those consequences of those who would
naturally not wish him to succeed.
Ill-Preparedness
One of Shagari's limitations was
that he had indicated before he became President in 1979 that his ambition in
life was only limited to becoming a Senator before he was reluctantly convinced
to take on the arduous task of President.. A similar admission has been
credited to Yar'Adua, who had hoped to return quietly to teaching Analytical
Chemistry at a Northern university after his term as governor of Katsina was
over in 2007 – before Aremu Obasanjo set his eyes on him.
To go from Governor of Katsina to
President of Nigeria is a big leap – and it has shown in his first year. We
understand for example that Yar'Adua attended only about half of the several
Council of State meetings convened under the eight-year rule of Obasanjo.
Yar'Adua's travel within Nigeria itself before he started campaigning is
reported to have been limited – I am yet to confirm for example that he had
NEVER visited Port Harcourt BEFORE he campaigned in that critical Niger-Delta
city. Certainly, he had NEVER visited the United States before, and was
overwhelmed when he visited George Bush in Washington DC during his first year
– and incredibly told his host so, to the horror of some of us Nigerian
citizens. His many (and possibly only) visits abroad were to
Germany – to take care of his health. Clearly, he did not have a wide
network of political and administrative contacts within Nigeria – or outside
the Northern Nigerian axis for that matter - to draw upon when he became
president. This has shown in the kind of non-vibrant ministers which he has
surrounded himself with, with hints of accusations of
"Northernization" of key positions. One doubts whether he ever had
any serious conversation with his Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan (and briefly
colleague from the small but oil-rich state of Bayelsa) before they become
shackled together in the Presidency. Consequently, his hope that
Goodluck's Niger-Delta connections would "deliver" the peace of that
volatile region was clearly misconceived.
Programmatically, Yar'Adua's
ill-preparedness means that he has had to adopt hook-line-and-sinker the
top-down Vision 2020 program of his predecessor Obasanjo, but distilled rather
quickly into his own seven-point agenda of (i). Power and Energy (ii)
Food Security and Agriculture; (iii) Wealth Creation and Employment (iv) Mass
Transportation (v) Land Reform (vi) Security and (vi) Qualitative and
Functional Education and two special interest issues (i) Niger Delta and
(ii) Disadvantaged Groups.
It is on these programs that his
first year and subsequent years must ultimately be judged.
In fairness, a number of the more
wrong-headed and dubious policies and actions of Obasanjo have been reversed by
the Yar'Adua administration, but some of those reversals themselves have since
been reversed. As a result, one is not really keen to keep a catalog of
those reversals. More importantly, very few positive initiatives have
been implemented – except for the comprehensive Gas Policy enunciated under his
watch – which can be a result of his ill-preparedness.
Just as we had Obasanjo's mantra of
"Dividends of Democracy", Yar'Adua administration's most abiding
mantra in this first year has been his emphasis on "Rule of
Law and Due Process". He even admitted this as his most visible
achievement in a recent interview to Financial Times. Clearly, this
particular mantra was not even enunciated as one of his seven-point agenda, and
one can only therefore consider it an afterthought, some kind of back-handed
repudiation of the legacy of his immediate predecessor. Yet
"Rule of Law" is a neutral term – even dictators and autocrats talk
of "Rule of Law" – their own law . One should talk more about
"Enforceable and Enforced Rule of Good Law".
That mantra of Rule of Law is
already being violated in the breach. For example, there are
serious ongoing interferences with the EFCC by the Yar'Adua
administration (after attempts to cage Ibori and Iyabo Obasanjo) - Nuhu Ribadu
has been stepped aside for Ibrahim Lamorde, who has now also been replaced by
Mrs. Farida Waziri all within the year. There have been attempts by the
letter-writing Attorney-General Aondoakaa to unfetter favored persons (for
example Ibori, Etete, etc.) from legal claws both domestic and foreign.
There is even talk of accusations of violating the recently-passed 2008
budget with calls already for Yar'Adua's impeachment More annoyingly,
the gubernatorial election re-runs under Yar'Adua's presidency – which are
STILL under INEC Iwu's administration – have been as bad if not worse than that
of Obasanjo's, with Yar'Adua even joining in in some gubernatorial
campaigns. No surprise: every one of the PDP governors that were kicked
out by the Election tribunals have been returned after the new elections – so
what else is new?
Illegitimacy
Imposition on his party and concern
about not being able to overcome the limitations of ill-preparedness ultimately
led to a seriously flawed electoral process that resulted in an illegitimate
outcome of theApril 2007 presidential elections, under INEC and refereed
by Maurice Iwu. Whether Yar'Adua would have won in a free-and-fair
contest over Abubakar Atiku and Muhammadu Buhari is beside the point.
However the extent that the Obasanjo administration went to exclude Atiku
from contesting the presidency – with the Supreme Court having to rule for his
inclusion only five days to the elections – and the serious logistical nightmare
that attended the elections themselves (lack of voters' register; lack of
serial numbers in the ballot papers; missing, late or flawed ballot papers,
violence, etc.) de-legitimized the elections so much that both domestic and
international observers termed them LESS than Nigerian standards, not to talk
of African or international ones.
Yet a Presidential Appeals Court
which heard the complaints of Atiku and Buhari incredibly saw no evil and heard
no evil, and ruled unanimously in Yar'Adua's favor, with nary a complaint
against INEC. Yar'Adua thereby lost an opportunity to even get a veneer
of legitimacy and some breathing room. One believes that Atiku and Buhari
might have ended their complaints earlier under different circumstances – but
they are now seeking vindication at the Supreme Court, which means that a sword
of Damocles still hangs over Yar'Adua's head one year after inauguration.
That burden of illegitimacy in this
first year cannot be completely comforting, both to those domestic or foreign
who might sincerely wish to work in or with his administration on some
long-term basis.
Ill-Health
One thing that one could never
fault Obasanjo on was that he was a vigorous man – maybe too vigorous in some
respects – but he could work from morning to night on Nigerian and other
issues, and did not let any medical conditions slow him down. To be a
president of any country, least of all Nigeria, has to be a twenty-three-hour
business. Obasanjo burnt his candles on both ends by all accounts, even
if the outcomes of all his eight-year efforts did not bear him out due to his
limitations and that of the political appointees around him, some of who we now
know were thieving left, right and center, while preaching an anti-corruption
mantra.
Yar'Adua's Churg-Strauss Syndrome
(CSS) disease - a rare disease that features inflammation of blood vessels
(also referred to as angiitis) in the lungs, skin, nerves, and abdomen -
is not terminal, but our man in Abuja is a chronically ill man, and has been
such since at least 1986, when according to his own admission, he has been
constantly under German doctors' watch.
Clearly, he cannot work till
midnight or through the night as Obasanjo is famed to be able to do. In
fact, rumor has it that by 6 pm to 8 pm, maybe earlier, he is quietly resting,
no visitors allowed thank you but his voluble wife Turai and a few
others.. What time he usually wakes up, I do not know, but maybe
spokesperson Segun Adeniyi can inform us accordingly.
Moving on…
Not only do the consequences of
that illness contrast sharply with the time effort put in by Obasanjo – and is
nowhere comparable to the chain-smoking habits of Alhaji Shagari - but it leads
to all kinds of daily speculations about what would/could happen to the geopolitical
calculations surrounding the presidency if he suddenly passed away. It could
have figured into the selection of the relatively tame and ineffectual
Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan, and will certainly be responsible for the
number of Northerners waiting in the wings in case something untoward suddenly
happens to Yar'Adua.
Constitutionally, Goodluck Jonathan
should take over from Yar'Adua in that eventuality. Politically, that may
be a short-lived arrangement in which he (Jonathan) makes way for an arranged
Northern successor - initially appointed by him as Vice-President and quickly
approved by the National Assembly - and then quickly returns once more as
Vice-President.
All these are of course Byzantine
speculations – but there is an inherent instability in governance when every
late wake-up by the President, a cough, a slip, a headache or (malaria)
fever leads to a potential medical crisis as recently witnessed when Yar'Adua
had to be flown abroad summarily, and more so when did not return when he was
expected to.
His first year in office has had
its own share of these medical furloughs and political imaginings and
machinations.
Any Good News?
There is. Yar'Adua appears to be a decent and simple
man not given to loudness and excessive pomp and pageantry of office. He
appears comfortable in his own skin and does not pinch himself over his
attainment of high office. Those characteristics also seemed to have
rubbed off on the vast majority of his political appointees, leading to a commendable
reduction in the temperature of governance compared with the Obasanjo
era. However, the voluble and peregrinating First Lady Turai (not an
appointee) has filled in loudly in many respects. The competence of his
Secretary to the Federal Government Baba Gana Kingibe and Media Spokesperson
Segun Adeniyi is notable, even though that list is rather too short.
Yar'Adua also has shown to have a political conscience in
that he quickly acknowledged the flawed nature of the elections that ushered
him in, whereupon he set up an Electoral Reform Committee under former Chief
Justice Uwais. His attempt at forming a Unity Government was largely rebuffed,
but at least he tried to temper the effects of his imposition and illegitimacy.
Finally, in probably mitigating his ill-preparedness, he has
assumed a very deliberative style of planning which has been criticized as
being too ponderous and tentative, leading to a graduation of Obasanjo's
moniker of simply "Baba" to ones of Yar'Adua being "Baba Go-Slow"
or even "Baba Full Stop."
Patience appears required therefore to see how his planning
pans out.
The Way Forward
I have claimed above that the
combination of ill-health, imposition, illegitimacy, and ill-preparedness have
all impaired Yar'Adua's performance in this his first year.
So where do we go from here ?
If our lot under a particular leader has not improved since the past year -
violating Reagan's universal test for commendable leadership - and might have
actually worsened in several areas, what prospect do we have for the future?
One can only continue to pray for
Yar'Adua's health and trust that he will continue to manage his chronic illness
both in and out of the country – hopefully more in than out since most
Nigerians need improved health care themselves and cannot travel abroad for
malaria treatment. Next, with respect to imposition, what is done is done, but
with Obasanjo still hovering over the PDP as he holds on to the Chairmanship of
the Board of Trustees, the odor of that imposition will continue to follow
Yar'Adua around. Finally, his illegitimacy might be ameliorated
once and for all if his election were ultimately annulled by the Supreme Court,
and then he ran again successfully on his own steam - or if he is left in
place, then the excessively biased blind rulings of the Appeal Court were
corrected and INEC given a serious red card.
But more important than all the
above, from here on, it is how he makes up for his lack of preparedness
and how he impacts on his seven-point agenda and two special issues that he
will be judged. Under no circumstances should this lack of preparedness be
masked under the euphemism of deliberate and purposeful planning as
presidential spokesperson Segun Adeniyi has done in his own recent one-year
assessment of his boss's record.
With respect to his seven-point
agenda, first, Yar'Adua administration's gas-based Energy/Electric Power policy
must be linked to the Niger-Delta crisis; we await emergency declaration in
both sectors. The present rumored total of 1000 MW power generation for a
nation of 140 million people is atrocious and simply unacceptable. Secondly,
despite the fact the world market per-barrel oil price is more than twice
the $59 that our latest 2008 budget is based on– and there is yet no joy in the
country – shows the folly of having a mono-cultural economy based on oil.
Hence both a value-added manufacturing sector, coupled with a inward-looking
agricultural policy – not one that is focused on importing billions of dollars
of rice from abroad – are paramount, ones that provide both food security and
employment.. Thirdly, a truly bold reformation and restructuring of the
Nigerian Police Force based on decentralization and community policing – and
moving away from the traditional fears of a state police - to improve
local security to life, limb and property must be embarked upon without
delay. Finally, mass employment will be further aided by embarking upon
mass transportation infrastructure development – not just roads, but rail and
waterways as well.
Epilogue
The purpose of any people-centered
governance is to improve the health, wealth, education, security, general
well-being and dignity of citizens. You can plan all you want, but if
none of these areas is impacted both in the short run and long run, no amount
of patience can be urged. That is Yar'Adua's challenge – or of any body
who might succeed him.
The long-suffering Nigerian people
are waiting.
May May 29, 2009 be a better day
than May 29, 2008. [Amen.]
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Authors 
Posted by Robot| 31.05.2008 20:28