I asked the pertinent question in my write-up – Why is the President Desperate? I had expected the elders in the village will help me resolve this puzzle. In it I expressed my dismay on how out of desperation the President has rubbished himself. I analyzed perhaps why it was an unnecessary endeavor; on how it was futile. I expected answers, but I got none. I waited for Auspicious, Dockwoy, Tanibaba and Sabella to give me their insight- all I got was mum. I patiently expected the resident analysts and political egg heads in ILN, DW, Excuzzme, Oghre etc to come in and tell me what I didn’t know; but I waited in vain. Three weeks later- no clue, no answer – why is the president desperate? In the absence of any answers, I have decided to embark on a lone search for an answer.

Option A-4

What I call option A-4 is the four ways Obasanjo could stop Atiku. Indeed, these range of possibilities come with their gains as well as their pains. Take for instance, the claim by many that Obasanjo’s act of trying to disqualify candidates is equivalent’s to Abacha’s. That claim I think is not only spurious but farfetched. Because in all sincerity, Abacha has no time to disqualify any strong foe- all he does is to kill them. He simply sends Sergeant Rogers to visit you and you are dispatched efficiently to mother earth. But OBJ have not chosen this option i.e. Kill Atiku. The second method is Eliminate Atiku- this is IBB style of elimination. It is done first by trying to bribe you, then intimidating you and finally putting you on a Jet and exploding it in mid-air. You get an IBB style mourning for you and even national honors for your effort at crossing this bastard. OBJ have refused to pursue this method on Atiku- he had the opportunity but he did not.

The third option, and which curiously OBJ has not pursued because he is very efficient at it and actually have a track record in it, is rigging out Atiku. Why would OBJ want to go through all the hassles of court judgments and pronouncements when he could simply call his lap dog Iwu to his office, hand him the official results in January to be announced in April. Curiously, OBJ have chosen to do this the hard way i.e. Disqualify Atiku. Why Disqualify Atiku when you can kill him, eliminate him or rig him out?

Why the Disqualification option?

Simply put, Atiku running makes it more likely Buhari will win in the first round, or might even sweep it. Recent opinion polls, which OBJ by virtue of his top secret security reports must be well aware of, indicates Buhari is by far the front runner for the next election. A Guardian Opinion Poll said and I quote;

“The survey reveals the Presidential candidate of the All Nigeria People's Party, Alhaji Muhammadu Buhari as the citizens' most preferred Presidential candidate, having recorded lead preference in 13 states. These are: Sokoto, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Gombe, Kano, Kebbi, Nasarawa, Niger, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara and FCT Abuja. River, Edo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Kogi, and Kwara. Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Action Congress came third in the preference ratings as he led other candidates in nine states Anambra, Adamawa, Delta, Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Oyo states” Source- The Guardian (April 2, 2007)

If you believe this poll (which agrees with quite a few others), what it means is that the election as I have persistently predicted might not be decided in the first round, and could head to a bloody second round where Atiku might not be the king but become the kingmaker. Above all, Atiku on the ballot means PDP will lose in a lot more states than expected and might in fact mean the beginning of the end of OBJ Inc.

As the State stands...how the election might pare out

Couple of realities makes this election a different dimension set apart from the 4-19 sham of 2003. In all sincerity, PDP cannot achieve the same level of dominance in the polity that she did in 2003 for the following reasons:

1. A House divided against itself cannot stand. If you think all is well within PDP then you must be joking. Many Governors are just dancing to the tunes of OBJ because they fear Ribadu. To make sure they are EFCC immune post May 29, then they must betray Obasanjo without giving him heads-up (see 3)
   

2. PDP of 2003 is not PDP of 2007. AC is a potent enemy with quite a few riggers and real threats against PDP’s ambition in 2007.
   

3. Very few incumbents are running again. Obasanjo has no rigging machine, the governors does. If they don’t run, or have a stake in winning they won’t use it.
   

4. PDP has no real candidates in many states including Imo, Rivers and Oyo. Unpopular candidates were also imposed in Delta, Ekiti and Anambra states.
   

5. PDP is a below par performer. Any user of the Ondo-Ore road within the next 2 weeks is unlikely to vote for PDP imaginary achievement of debt relief etc. No light, more expensive gasoline and re-occurring fuel scarcity is what Nigerians got after eight years. Good luck to the optimists as Halima’s Article shows.
   

What I generally expect is that the Vice President is only holding out for this weekend to give AC governorship aspirants a good showing; after the gubernatorial polls is over and it becomes clear that he might not be on the ballot I expect him to talk to Buhari, get a good deal and ask his supporters to vote accordingly. Then the real game will begin. OBJ might regret his disqualification of Atiku in the unfolding scenario.

Clarification of My Position on Atiku

Couple of well meaning readers have written me to clarify my position on Atiku. While I thought my views are very clear on this man and what he represents, I am presenting their questions and my retorts in bulleted points to prevent misinterpretation in the future.

      .  Is Atiku Corrupt? Absolutely – how else can you explain a customs agent turn multi-billionaire with no visible path to wealth?

1. Should INEC/FG disqualify Atiku? No. By virtue of his candidacy, Atiku will strengthen democracy in Nigeria, prevent our slide to one-party state under PDP and provide a counter-balance to PDP rigging machine. In the absence of a solid indictment against him, he should be allowed to run.
   

2. What are the alternatives to stopping the likes of Atiku? Rather than trying to prevent Atiku from running, INEC should concentrate on giving Nigeria a free and fair election (refer to 4). Nigerians are smart enough to choose clean and able candidates: we are not guinea pigs in Obasanjo Farms Nigeria.
   

3. Why no solid indictment against Atiku yet? The only reason OBJ is yet to come up with damning evidence of corruption against Atiku is not because they don't exist, but because he will be hurt too- they are birds of same feather that flocked, dealt, stole and killed together.
   

4. Can Atiku win? Absolutely Not! In a free and fair election, Atiku’s candidacy is DOA- Dead on Arrival. In fact, I called it sheer delusional! Atiku stands no chance of occupying Aso Rock Villa, but he is a possible kingmaker!
   

Nothing beats Nigerian politics in level of drama and excitement. Nigeria we hail thee. 

Robot  Villager

# 1 I asked the pertinent question in my write-up – ...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 12.04.2007 11:36

ikechiji  Villager

# 2 Excellent and well-balanced write-up. The only part you are missing out on is OBJ is trying to protect his post May 29 trial for corruption. We already know about MOFAS, Transcorp, Otta Farms, etc. However, there is more hidden in the closet and "Andy" Uba holds the key. OBJ and co will eventually have to explain to the nation what they have done with the "Ministry" of Petroleum Resources for eight years. In terms of OBJ's strategy, I think that they still want to present "credible" election results to Western observers. The rigging is thus done ahead of time instead of during the actual elections. Giving the nation two days of "holidays" to prepare for State elections on a one-day notice. We might as well take the whole of next week off for the presidential elections and not have any of the courts sit that could interfer with our pre-election rigging plans. Odego Posted by ikechiji| 12.04.2007 11:58

Oghre  Villager

# 3 Countdown: Why the President Is Desperate? But is he thou? Well, if you term a rigorous fight to instil some kind of discipline in Nigerian politics desperation, then perhaps the president is what you say he is. Thanks to this president Nigeria may very well have an already-rich Nigerian graduate with better credentials for accountability and good governance for president! And a damn sight better than the rest of the pack!!! Ah! but the president is desperate because he wants to remove a known criminal in the person of Atiku from the presidency of Nigeria, I can tell you that if Atiku is not himself more desperate for his prize-moneyed trophy he will appeal to the Nigeria population to help with his predicament. Ah! But he can’t, because he has stolen from them and will continue to do so for as long as he has access to public funds. The way Atiku was presented here it will seem we are talking of some God fearing prudent and incorruptible messiah! The first Nigerian sitting vice president to be investigated by the FBI and searched as part of a criminal investigation, why not make him president while that investigation is still ongoing, perhaps he will have his immunity removed and man handled on one his presidential trips to the UN in New York! Please pick you candidates when you are not day dreaming; cheerleading for nincompoops masqueraded as arch rivals defeats the purpose of dutifully finding a credible candidate for elections. Looking at the list of candidates it is not hard work to see that the likes of Buhari and Atiku are nothing more than glory hunting thieves out to secure some leverage on a section of society while helping to produce more poverty and Islamic terrorism brought on by a thirst to be the richest Nigerian and the introduction of barbaric Sharia law in a secular society. Well, it should be welcome news that OBJ did not go as far as “kill him, eliminate him or rig him out” but instead chose to rig him out like he did Buhari. This is a welcome development that Nigeria has a president who does not consider extra judicial killing of opponents. It is another story to imagine what Atiku would do if he were in a position to eliminate obstacles to his desperate bid for the Nigerian treasury! Instead of man who chooses not to do these heinous things when he it is his rightful duty to do so, we should then pick from the murdering lot of Buhari, IBB and Atiku! Write with caution and be careful what you wish for my good friend, use your intellect to be more critical, and in critiquing be just thorough and objective; writing because you dislike this president should not stop you balancing your piece with positives. With the state of Nigerian politics it is not uncommon to use even illegal tactics to ensure some civility in the polity, OBJ may not have all the answers but surely he wants to leave some kind of legacy (that may not be wholly tidy) that will kick-start the real nascent democracy. Like the saying goes “Better the devil you know than the devil you don't know” When I think of Obasanjo I think of Odi, Zaki Biam, Transcop, PTF, Presidential Library… but then I also think about the Paris club, Nigeria’s paid debt, The railway project, Atiku not allowed to finish us off, Nigeria’s telecoms boom, Our foreign reserve and the start of a new tiger economy. Posted by Oghre| 12.04.2007 13:10

Temisan  Villager

# 4 Doh, I want to wish my fellow villagers a very happy "Sh*t on Atiku/AC" day(s)! (i.e. April 12th and 13th). :) Public holidays as a partisan tool? What next? Naija never ceases to amaze me. The PDP administration has continually made a travesty of the constitutional process (e.g. declaring PDP decampee seats vacant). Yes, it is PDP's perogative as incumbents to use state institutions against opponents, but this (2 day holiday) is absolutely ludicrous. It would be great to see the Nigerian polity evolve once those charlatans advising Baba Iyabo have been evicted from Aso Rock. Hopefully, this nonsense doesn’t incite another “Damisa Exercise” (à la January 15th 1966) Mr. Temisan West (The Deltabian) Posted by Temisan| 12.04.2007 13:19

akuluouno  Villager

# 5 He is desperate because of Atiku. That was why the impromptu Atiku holidays were declared. Can Ayiku win? Yes in a free and fair elections. Our father is behaving like the proverbial bird that perched on the end of a reed who is responsible for the reggae he is dancing to . :smile: Posted by akuluouno| 12.04.2007 13:39

busanga  Villager

# 6 Hear the Voice of Desperation as reported in Punch today: PDP should concede some states to opposition – Obasanjo Obasanjo said, “The chairman wants victory for us in all the 36 states of the country. I will not argue with my chairman. But if we can leave a few for the opposition so that we can be a truly democratic country, I will not object to that. We can leave just a few for them. The President said when he informed the governors about this decision, they all rejected to volunteer their states. “I told them that whoever threatened fire did not know what fire is. Those who know what fire is will not tell you there will be fire because when there is fire, it is difficult to know who it will burn. Fire does not know and respect who set it. Earlier, the PDP National Chairman, Dr. Ahmadu Ali, expressed confidence that the party would “capture all the states of the federation.” He added, ”As a party in power, no one can intimidate the PDP. The prerogative for violence is in the hands of the government and the taxpayer is paying for it. Anybody who tries it will regret it for the rest of his life.” __ @ bold..and this is the type of government Oghre think you all deserve! We do have a long way to go.:( Posted by busanga| 12.04.2007 13:50

tanibaba  Villager

# 7 I want to begin by thanking you for your compliments. The truth is that i dont want to be dragged into OBJ/ATIKU war hence my refusal to voice my opinion. The war is not for me and so it is better to standby in an UNFOLDING drama. So many people who rushed to unguarded and uninformed conclusions on the war have themselves to blame already. As for this article. Is Mr. President desperate? He doesnt look like someone who is desperate. On the contrary he looks like someone who knows Nigerians very well and what they will do with a LAMEDUCK president. So even with a few hours to the start of elections, he is still an ACTIVE and RELEVANT FACTOR. He kept us busy to the extent that no part of his last four years can he be referred to as a lame duck president. That is my reading of the situation. Once again thanks :biggrin: taslim Posted by tanibaba| 12.04.2007 13:57

ozoodoo  Villager

# 8 =Oghre;167860>Countdown: Why the President Is Desperate? But is he thou? Well, if you term a rigorous fight to instil some kind of discipline in Nigerian politics desperation, then perhaps the president is what you say he is. Thanks to this president Nigeria may very well have an already-rich Nigerian graduate with better credentials for accountability and good governance for president! And a damn sight better than the rest of the pack!!! Ah! but the president is desperate because he wants to remove a known criminal in the person of Atiku from the presidency of Nigeria, I can tell you that if Atiku is not himself more desperate for his prize-moneyed trophy he will appeal to the Nigeria population to help with his predicament. Ah! But he can’t, because he has stolen from them and will continue to do so for as long as he has access to public funds. The way Atiku was presented here it will seem we are talking of some God fearing prudent and incorruptible messiah! The first Nigerian sitting vice president to be investigated by the FBI and searched as part of a criminal investigation, why not make him president while that investigation is still ongoing, perhaps he will have his immunity removed and man handled on one his presidential trips to the UN in New York! Please pick you candidates when you are not day dreaming; cheerleading for nincompoops masqueraded as arch rivals defeats the purpose of dutifully finding a credible candidate for elections. Looking at the list of candidates it is not hard work to see that the likes of Buhari and Atiku are nothing more than glory hunting thieves out to secure some leverage on a section of society while helping to produce more poverty and Islamic terrorism brought on by a thirst to be the richest Nigerian and the introduction of barbaric Sharia law in a secular society. Well, it should be welcome news that OBJ did not go as far as “kill him, eliminate him or rig him out” but instead chose to rig him out like he did Buhari. This is a welcome development that Nigeria has a president who does not consider extra judicial killing of opponents. It is another story to imagine what Atiku would do if he were in a position to eliminate obstacles to his desperate bid for the Nigerian treasury! Instead of man who chooses not to do these heinous things when he it is his rightful duty to do so, we should then pick from the murdering lot of Buhari, IBB and Atiku! Write with caution and be careful what you wish for my good friend, use your intellect to be more critical, and in critiquing be just thorough and objective; writing because you dislike this president should not stop you balancing your piece with positives. With the state of Nigerian politics it is not uncommon to use even illegal tactics to ensure some civility in the polity, OBJ may not have all the answers but surely he wants to leave some kind of legacy (that may not be wholly tidy) that will kick-start the real nascent democracy. Like the saying goes “Better the devil you know than the devil you don't know” When I think of Obasanjo I think of Odi, Zaki Biam, Transcop, PTF, Presidential Library… but then I also think about the Paris club, Nigeria’s paid debt, The railway project, Atiku not allowed to finish us off, Nigeria’s telecoms boom, Our foreign reserve and the start of a new tiger economy. When some of us criticise Obasanjo it is not as if we are not aware of his positive achievements as a president. I am proud to say that during the "third term" saga I was everywhere shouting at rooftops in his favour because he had led us away from the road to perdition that we were heading prior to 1999 and was gradually moving us in the right direction. My position then was based on what I knew about his government, some of which are listed in the long long post above and in yours. But the moment I lost it was when I started seeing the acts of lawlessness being condoned and fed from Aso Rock. Rule of law is like the engine of a vehicle. It gives a prospective investor in our economy the assurance that the law will be there to protect him should anyone attempt to defraud him. It gives the common man the assurance that the law will be there to protect him should the "big man" attempts to oppress him. It places the public office holder on notice that he is a servant and not a god and as such would be called to account based on the rule of law should he dip his hands into our public till. It would have ensured that those shouldered with the responsiblity of selling our commonweath under the privatisation programme acts with fairness in the interest of Nigerians as a whole and not in the sole interest of the president and his cronies knowing that their actions would be subject to the rule of law. I can go on and on regarding the benefits of rule of law. I lost my respect for him as a president when he started thumbing his nose at court judgements, when they started all these "we are in power" stuff by crudely and illegally impeaching some governors (some of whom indeed deserve to be impeached). No matter how well you keep the seat of a car clean and no matter how well you paint the car in beautiful colours, if the working condition of the engine is compromised the car would be just a glorified toy. Posted by ozoodoo| 12.04.2007 14:24

villagembr  Villager

# 9 Your view is well articulated and sound. OBJ is desperate beacuse of the love for himself rather than the country that he was purportedly ready to die for. So by your question you are beating a dead horse. If you see your enemy trying to lay sledge on your empire, you think you would fold your arms and simply watch him/her wreck havoc on you. He is on the right direction and humanly to be desperate. Nigeria yesterday is not Nigeria today and will NEVER be Nigeria tomorrow. If for no other reason, the effect of globalization is re-shaping Nigeria society. The question OBJ should throw open is "Who will protect me after May 29?" One might come to his aid after the election considering his age. That is the simple translation of his desperation. INEC chairman should remember that OBJ will not be there after May 29 even if his stooges win in the selection, oh, election process. OBJ, could you give us a break and don't get involved so much at this point. Just cast your vote and let go. Posted by villagembr| 12.04.2007 14:26

Tony  Villager

# 10 =tanibaba;167871>I want to begin by thanking you for your compliments. The truth is that i dont want to be dragged into OBJ/ATIKU war hence my refusal to voice my opinion. The war is not for me and so it is better to standby in an UNFOLDING drama. So many people who rushed to unguarded and uninformed conclusions on the war have themselves to blame already. As for this article. Is Mr. President desperate? He doesnt look like someone who is desperate. On the contrary he looks like someone who knows Nigerians very well and what they will do with a LAMEDUCK president. So even with a few hours to the start of elections, he is still an ACTIVE and RELEVANT FACTOR. He kept us busy to the extent that no part of his last four years can he be referred to as a lame duck president. That is my reading of the situation. Once again thanks :biggrin: taslim @Tanibaba: my greatest regret in life is that i am forced to share the same country with ******* like yourself. With the way you reason, and your level of bias, little wonder Nigeria has remained a rotten backward jungle, where human corpses still litter the streets. The fact that all the illegalities and witch hunting being committed by a satanic president boils down to not being a lame duck in your reasoning ,exposes how *********** you are. Posted by Tony| 12.04.2007 15:41

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