20 Feb 2009 |
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Faith without reason: How we deceive ourselves By Levi Obijiofor IT is perhaps only in Nigeria that political leaders like to delude themselves that the current global economic crisis won't affect our economy and our lives. Nigeria must be something of a super nation - only paranormal nations can claim immunity from the contractionary effects of the present economic disaster. While many countries are rolling out billion dollars worth of stimulus packages to revive their ailing economies, Nigerian leaders continue to do business as usual. Since the global economy started its free fall, a popular phrase has been invented to serve as our own antidote to the economic malaise. That phrase says "It shall be well with the Nigerian economy". But no one would give you fool-proof reasons why we should be optimistic or why Nigeria has received special vaccination against this economic virus. It is this misleading feeling of self-satisfaction, propelled by an overdose of faith without reason, the assumption that we are special in the eyes of God, that our political leaders have used to rationalise their failures and why we should give them more time to solve national and international problems. The more desperate the world economy gets, the more pompous our political leaders appear about the ability of the Nigerian economy to withstand worldwide economic ills. In all their argument, you will not find any clear policy framework or physical structures to serve as the nation's buffer against the global economic crisis. The assumption that the global economic recession will not have any adverse impact on Nigeria is misleading. There is absolutely no basis for such optimism. The fact that economically strong nations are sweltering under the current worldwide economic slump is indicative of how serious the impact would be on economically fragile nations such as Nigeria. Long before the onset of the present crisis, the fundamentals of the Nigerian economy had been compromised by official corruption, absurd planning and policy rigmarole by politicians and bureaucrats who have no idea about the right direction for the economy. Our status as a nation of pastors and churches will not save us from this economic disaster. We need more than prayers. We need more than political expressions of optimism to withstand the impact of the present economic crisis. What economic miracles do we expect to save us? Before the worldwide economic disaster, the nation couldn't even provide employment for millions of graduates of our universities. Now that the world is feeling the pinch of the economic decline, how are we going to overcome our problems? What practical programmes and policies are in place to cushion the inflationary pressures on ordinary people? Last month I observed how quickly the prices of goods could get out of hand in a rural Nigerian community. In just two days in the third week of January 2009, the price of a bag of cement had jumped from N1550 to N1950. At one point, the price hit the psychologically important N2000 mark before it retreated to N1800. The price of a bag of cement remains at N1800 today. The explanation given by cement merchants in the community was that the value of the naira had fallen and they needed to adjust their prices to reflect the exchange rate of the naira. The argument could be dismissed because the brand of cement in question was manufactured locally. Still, the huge jump in the price of a bag of cement was instructive and disturbing. Three days ago, The Guardian reported a news story entitled: "Meltdown won't affect telecoms sector, says global forum". Why is the Nigerian situation so different from the rest of the world? The introductory paragraph of the story stated: "Major players in the telecommunications industry across the globe yesterday appraised the current economic crunch and asserted that the sector was not in any way threatened by the economic recession... They said their position was informed by the critical role the industry plays in the global economy." This is another colourful argument. There are many industries that play critical roles in the world but they have been weighed down by the current economic conditions. Sometimes we need to spice our optimism with a bit of pragmatism. In yet another news story headlined "Vision 2020: FG targets 70-year life expectancy" (Punch, Tuesday, 17 February 2009), we were informed that "In just 11 years from now, Nigerians will enjoy a 70-year life expectancy rate and per capita income of not less than $4,000, if the Federal Government realises its Vision 2020 plan... The vision seeks to place Nigeria among the top 20 global economies by 2020." Blessed are the hopeful for they shall continue to live in their dreamland. Someone once wrote that hope has become the chief breakfast cereal of many Nigerians. That is true. This is another example of how national programmes are designed and marketed on the basis of hope and political enthusiasm. Without impressive evidence of economic progress, political leaders expect Nigerians to achieve in 11 years a higher standard of living and life expectancy than is currently the case, an achievement that would surpass the performance of other countries where people enjoy much higher standard of living and life expectancy. Sometimes you get the impression that political leaders just write down their dreams on paper and then struggle in a deceptive manner to transform those dreams into official programmes without any realistic assessment. Of course, dreams are free. But it is disingenuous for political leaders to raise everyone's aspirations based on fleeting and non-existing facts. The price of crude oil, Nigeria's main foreign exchange earner, has plunged in the world market. The Nigerian naira has fallen and continues to fall. Perhaps we should rename our unit of currency - the naira - to become "hope". If we believe the Central Bank Governor, Chukwuma Soludo, the current slide in the exchange rate of the naira is deliberate. It is designed to protect the nation's fragile economy. Confronted with these dreadful scenarios, we are told we are a unique people with unique survival instincts. Do we have to die before we live? Nigerian political leaders are a special breed. They don't live in our own world. They cannot see what we see. They don't experience the kind of hardships we experience. They don't shop in the same market as we do. They don't believe that prices of consumer goods have soared beyond the reach of ordinary people, no thanks to the current economic situation. But they like to talk aimlessly and mischievously about how we have weathered the economic recession fairly well. Only ordinary people in rural and urban areas are in the best position to affirm how seriously the recession has affected them. Claims that Nigeria has been shielded from the global economic recession remain unqualified and without verifiable evidence. While other countries are busy trying to stabilise their economies through clearly articulated fiscal policies and economic revival incentives, Nigerian leaders are hoping that some kind of miracle would salvage our battered economy. On what grounds should we be hopeful? They say it's all about the legendary Nigerian character, our resilient nature, the idea that we can resist the uncertainties of life. They say we have the capacity to cope with disasters that threaten our existence because we have been toughened by hard times in the past. It is on these flimsy excuses that our leaders believe that whenever a calamity of any magnitude strikes, we can survive it while the rest of the world gropes for escape doors. We are a proud nation. There are many things about Nigeria that bring us joy. There are also many things about Nigeria that tarnish our image as a people and soil our reputation as a country. We might be a nation of inventors in terms of ideas but we tend to place too much emphasis on hope. We might have been toughened by difficult times in the past, but this current economic recession poses a major threat to our survival. It cannot be solved by hope or political indolence.
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