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The recent kidnapping of the 3 year old Briton, Margaret Hill in Port-Harcourt by the Niger-Delta militants brings to the fore the argument long canvassed that once an insurgency begins it assumes a life of its owns, takes different dimensions, and becomes difficult to stop. As things are presently, it is difficult to see any immediate end to the new dimensions now being employed by the militants. Nigerians will have no choice but to live with such scenarios of strife, kidnappings and conflict for a long time to come.
However the blame for the insurgency and attendant mutating dimensions rest squarely on the doorsteps of the government, whose lack of diplomacy and repressive colonialist methods over the years nurtured and sustained the militants. The fact that there are many ethnic militias and separatist groups in Nigeria is proof that there are many grievances and injustices in the system which needs to be addressed, but the federal government rather than engage the ethnic militia groups in constructive dialogue characteristically chose the strong arm methods of a sometimes very bloody clampdown on such groups.
If history can be our guide, such methods have never succeeded anywhere in the world in the resolution of conflicts. Thus the militias in Nigeria have not surprisingly continued to thrive in spite of long years of repression, and the multiplier effects of such failed federal government policies is the widening scale and scope of subversive militant activities we witness to date.
The genesis of the conflict can be traced back more than 20 years since the Niger-Deltans have been complaining of the wanton exploitation of their resources and destruction of their environment in various peaceful ways, but each time the federal government responded with brute force, and increased militarization of the area. The issues remained unresolved and metamorphosed into various stages including the highly internationalised protests by Ken Saro Wiwa which eventually saw to his internationally condemned hanging by a federal government that was more interested in silencing all dissent, than in resolving them. The crises have outlived many regimes and remains increasingly a thorn in the flesh of the government whose failure to resolve the crisis earlier has created a hydra headed monster.
Even as I write, the federal government continues to make the same mistakes with other ethnic militias particularly the Igbo who have for so long, through non-violent advocacy groups like the MASSOB continued to highlight and complain of various injustices, and marginalization which they have been victims of since the end of the unfortunate Biafra-Nigeria war. The response as usual has been predictable. Rather than address the issues thrown up through dialogue in an honest brotherly fashion, the federal government has staged a bloody clampdown on a non-violent group protesting legitimate grievances.
In spite of the clampdown MASSOB has also continued to thrive. But therein lies the danger. Though the federal government probably continues to dangerously underestimate the Igbo struggle the same way they had hitherto underestimated the Niger-Delta struggle, but if history and indeed the Niger-Delta conflict closer home can once again be our guide, that would be purely at their own peril, as the Igbo struggle could sooner or later be high jacked by extremists, and the risk of an insurgency will increasingly become possible as the many grievances and injustices remain unresolved.
The greater danger of course lies in the fact that once such insurgencies begin, it will sooner assume a life of its own, mutate into different dimensions, and typically become protracted. Depending on the ultimate political goals of the militants, it must not be overlooked or underestimated that such insurgencies can easily lead to disintegration through the intervention of the United Nations in line with present day political realities which has recently played out in places like East Timor, Montenegro, former Yugoslavia etc where the United nations organized independence referendums and Southern Sudan where an agreed independence referendum soon to be held was part of the brokered peace agreement.
It behoves on the federal government to learn from the present intractable quagmire in the Niger-Delta and move to nip a possible proliferation of conflicts in the bud by rapidly releasing all militants currently behind bars and hosting a brotherly dialogue in view of resolving all legitimate complaints of injustices. It doesn’t take much to make car bombs, truck bombs or improvised explosive devices (IEDS) these days. Indeed bomb making information is widely available on the internet. Any faceless fragmented group so determined can cause maximum damage and make the nation ungovernable. These are the stark realities of our times. The federal government must avoid the mistakes of the past.
Dialogue has unbelievably proven to be a viable means stronger than the most sophisticated weapons of war. It has won wars and resolved conflicts which weapons could not win. If there is any hope that Nigeria can know some peace and internal harmony, it can only be achieved through dialogue and not force of arms. The federal government must face the glaring realities and be humble enough to climb down from it’s high horse, sit down as a necessity sooner rather than later with Ethnic militia groups like the MEND, MASSOB, OPC etc in a peace conference or talk shop to find lasting solutions to the related political, structural, social and economic crisis bedevilling the nation. Those of them like myself who have attempted to look ahead and appreciate the clear and present dangers, can only warn on the foreseeable and predictable scenarios of increasing strife, but the choice and ball between conflict and peace rests ultimately in the federal government’s court.
Comrade Lawrence Chinedu Nwobu
Email:lawrencenwobu@yahoo.com
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Posted by Robot| 13.07.2007 07:46