The Nigerian Village Square - US Govt. polling puts Buhari ahead in presidential race

US Govt. polling puts Buhari ahead in presidential race

Written by Empowered Newswire, a US-based Nigerian news agency

Thursday, 22 March 2007

Our Correspondent

A United State government-sponsored opinion survey conducted in Nigeria has declared ANPP's presidential candidate Mohamodu Buhari as the leading presidential candidate, Empowered Newswire reports.

A copy of the US govt Survey was released to Empowered Newswire, a US-based Nigerian news agency, yesterday showing that the report is marked as "sensitive but unclassified," and released March 19, 2007, by the US State Department's Office of Research in Washington, DC.

According to it, after comparing the ratings of the three main presidential candidates, based on what the Nigerians polled had to say "overall, nearly four-in-ten predict Buhari to win, while three-in-ten predict a Yaradua victory."

But it was not all positive for the former military head of state as the polls warned that the ANPP/Buhari's campaign has been limited to the North

While the POP rated Atiku's chances overall behind Buhari and Yaradua, it noted clearly that "Atiku supporters could determine outcome of election"

The US government polling was conducted between January 17 and 27, using what the report called "a reputable Nigerian research firm" and carrying out "face-to-face interviews" with 2500 adults Nigerians in Lagos, Rivers, Kano and Enugu states, and the Federal Capital Territory in Abuja.

Empowered Newswire reports that a senior US State Department official who spoke on condition of anonymity, explained yesterday why the US government conducts such opinion analysis. According to him it is "to understand a little-bit better the views of the people." The official said the survey is a tool useful for government uses and also business interests and it is part of the US State Department's objective "to understand the world."

The official said it is not only in Nigeria that such polling has been conducted, but such analysis are done "with some frequency around the world." But it is not clear whether such an analysis was conducted also in 2003, although it is known that the 2007 elections are taken as more important because it is the election that will see a transfer of power from a civilian leader to another at the national level, and it is happening for the first time in Nigeria, all things equal.

However the official says while the US does this more regularly in some countries, there are also countries where it is done just once.

The report of the polling stated that :"Polling data from late January in key Nigerian states indicates that although most Nigerian newspapers continue to refer to the ruling party candidate (PDP/Yar’adua) as the front runner, the opposition ANPP/ Buhari ticket may be more popular."

Nonetheless it was noted that it currently looks "doubtful that Buhari, whose support is mainly in the North, can pick up enough votes in the South to meet the electoral requirements for victory," which is the highest number of votes and also 25% of the ballot cast in 24 states of the federation.

The US public opinion poll asked the 2500 respondents "what presidential party they would be voting for," and 37 percent of Nigerians polled in key states name Muhammadu Buhari’s All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), while 29 percent name the governing Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and 15 percent Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s Action Congress (AC)."

This polling confirms the analysis of the federal government delegations to the US in the last few weeks that ANPP's Buhari is the main threat to its PDP candidate.

But the POP report also showed that support for each party splits along regional lines. It said that "three-quarters of those in Kano and a plurality in Abuja intend to vote for the ANPP.
Meanwhile, the south is a contest between the PDP and the AC: the
PDP currently holds the lead in Enugu and Rivers, whereas the AC is
slightly more popular in Lagos."

In addition the US State Department POP added that "Nigerians’ party preferences shape who they expect will win the presidency. Overall, nearly four-in-ten predict Buhari to win, while three-in-ten predict a Yaradua victory. "

Vice President Atiku Abubakar's fortunes, according to the US POP are being affected by his struggles with the sitting federal government. Said the POP report "Nigerians are less confident in Atiku’s success, perhaps due to the numerous obstacles his campaign is facing; indeed, it is not clear that
his name will even be on the ballot."

According to the table provided with the report while 37% or almost 4 in every 10 Nigerian see Buhari as the next president, 29% see Yaradua and 12% see Atiku as the next president. 4% see Kalu and 1% see Ojukwu as the next president.

Furthermore, the POP stated that "regionally, views correspond to patterns of party support, with many
more in the North anticipating a victory by the ANPP’s Buhari."

Using character traits to measure the presidential candidates, again ANPP's Buhari’s appeal is dominant. Said the POP report "Nigerian perceptions of candidates’ character traits may help
explain support for candidates. Of all the candidates, Buhari is most frequently associated with integrity,
leadership, accountability, honesty and transparency."The report added that "Nigerians are more skeptical about these qualities in Atiku and Yaradua."

The POP highlighted the possibility of Vice President Atiku's supporters playing the decider role in the presidential election, when it reported that the VP's supporters "could determine outcome of election."

This is because, as the POP observed, " Nigerian election law requires the winner to
obtain the highest number of votes and win at least 25% of the ballots cast in two-thirds (24) of the thirty-six
states. Currently, Buhari holds an overall lead, yet he has little southern support. If Atiku is unable to get his
name on the ballot, AC supporters, most of whom are in the South, could help Buhari meet the electoral
threshold required for victory."

In case Atiku is not on the ballot, the US government POP noted that "an analysis comparing AC/Atiku supporters’ views of both Buhari and Yaradua sheds light on which candidate they may support. Those in the South view Yaradua more favorably on most aspects, while those in the North lean towards Buhari."

Said the report : "Thus, while Buhari may pick up some votes from Atiku supporters, the data suggests that those in the South, where he needs the most support, tend to look more favorably upon Yaradua."

However, the POP also reported that ANPP's Buhari’s campaign limited to North.

Said the report: "Buhari’s limited reach with his ANPP campaign is one additional indicator of
his struggle to gain a foothold in the South. Although 72 percent of Nigerians
mention that they have come in contact with campaign activities, those in the
South indicate little exposure to the ANPP"

Commenting on the voters registration, the POP found that the voters registration "although delayed, was
successful. Although there was considerable criticism of the registration process, eight-in-ten report being
registered to vote."

SEE BELOW HOW THE POP WAS CONDUCTED

APPENDIX A. HOW THE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED
Poll results are from a January 17- January 27, 2007 public opinion survey conducted by a reputable
Nigerian research firm. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 2500 adult Nigerians (aged 18-60) in
five key states: Lagos, Enugu, Abuja, Kano, and Rivers. These were intended to be representative of five of
Nigeria’s six regions, with only the North East left unrepresented. Sixty percent of the interviews were
conducted in urban locations and forty percent were conducted in rural areas.
As a guideline for interpretation, in 19 cases out of 20, results based on random samples of this size will
differ by no more than about 3 percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained by
polling all residents in the target areas. The margin of error for differences between regional and
demographic subgroups is larger. In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting a
survey of public opinion may introduce other sources of error into the results

Robot Robot is offline
Villager


	# 1 The US public opinion pollasked the 2500 respondents "what presidential party they wou...Read the full article. Posted by Robot\| 22.03.2007 12:12

omobaba omobaba is offline
Villager


	# 2 Fake!! As fake as a 60 Naira note. There is no "US State Department's Office of Research in Washington, DC." STOP REPORTING FAKE NEWS. Its 2007 for god's sake Posted by omobaba\| 22.03.2007 14:27

chubrock chubrock is offline
Villager


	# 3 "omobaba Villager Re: US Govt. polling puts Buhari ahead in presidential race -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fake!! As fake as a 60 Naira note. There is no "US State Department's Office of Research in Washington, DC." STOP REPORTING FAKE NEWS. Its 2007 for god's sake " omobaba, keep burying your head in the sand. Opinions on NVS does not necessarily reflect what is on ground in naija. I will tend to believe it because it says he is most popular among the masses in the north. Yaradua and Buhari are one and same, forget what u hear. So who are you going to vote? Chris okotie? lmao Posted by chubrock\| 22.03.2007 18:15

olusola olusola is offline
Villager


	# 4 Am sure Yar Adua is on his way to the presidency.Nigerians should prepare their minds for his presidency rather than bother about what some guys are saying,whether they live in Washington or Afghanistan. No party can defeat the PDP in the present political arrangement. I know they will talk about rigging, but ANPP and Buhari need to tell us how many states they have campaigned across the country. The worst scenario will be for Atiku to team up with Buhari. I don't even believe that can work because it will just be a repetition of what happened in the south-west in 2003 when the AD governors supported PDP for the presidency and they were consequently swept out of power in 5 states. Today, AD is dead. So,PDP is once again on it's way to the presidency for another 8 years! Posted by olusola\| 22.03.2007 18:35

Forshow Forshow is offline
Villager


	# 5 It look like some of you do not get the story that NVS has already become a 419 website.. Empowered Newswire have no website.. It may not even exist.. Another story from the house of 419er.. the same onwer of elendu, sahara reporter is also Empowered Newswire .. what we call 419.... I would update you on the poll is i have time.. Posted by Forshow\| 22.03.2007 19:16

Auspicious Auspicious is offline
Villager


	# 6 Hi Olusola! ENOUGH of this already! Stop making out as if the Peoples Democratic Party is some party of messiahs jare. You talk as if the party has done anything special for Nigeria in the last 8 years in power; hello?!? Where have you been all these while? Which party forced Peter Ayo Fayose on the people of Ekiti State? (PDP!) Who came to town and held up Fayose's hand, saying this was "the Son in whom he is well pleased"? (Your Fada of Modan Naijeriya!). Which party is trying to do the same thing as above again in Anambra (PDP!). And who is the "Son" this time? (Andy Uba, the money launderer, the fake PhD holder, the one who never finished college but claimed to have, the brother of a local kidnapper etc etc)! Which party presided over a government under whose watch, the state of infrastructure like electricity and road network have deteriorated in the last eight years? (The nausceaous PDP!). And which party has witnessed the worst infightings that led to killings of several of its chieftains? (The Corrupt Mammoth called the PDP!). Which party has a history of ignoring court orders or arm-twisting her political office holders to ignore our statutes for indiscriminate party rulings (The lawless PDP!). Which party crushes out the ambition of charismatic, performing, new-age leaders like Donald Duke et al for the emergence of a reluctant, tired and un-inspiring Yar'Adua? (The PDP!) {Even former dictator Buhari shows better passion for his cause!}. Which party bequeathed on to the citizens of Plateau, that dog-eater of a bail-jumper masqurading as a local Gomina called Joshua? (The useless PDP!). Which party dashed the good people of Bayelsa that greedy lout called Diepreye Alamieyeshigha? (Your PDP ni ke!). Which party forced down the throats of the "God's Own State" of Ndi-Anambra, through massively rigged elections, the person of Chris Ngige? Which party recognizes a confirmed kidnapper and election rigger as its member? (Of course, the PDP!) Which party, against all democratic principles, has retained as a member of the Nigerian Senate, a man (Ugochukwu Uba) who an Election Tribunal has ruled that he rigged his way into office despite the fact that the Tribunal awarded judgement in favor of his opponent? (Your overglorified PDP!). Which party can we hold responsible for the general lack of progress, lawlessness, insecurity, lack of accountability, executive arm-twisting, trechery etc, by virtue of the reach of its tentatcles into elected offices across Nigeria (Your fake FeeDeeFee!!!!) SO, IN LIGHT OF THE ABOVE AND MORE, you are hereby admonished to desist from insulting the sensibilities of your audience by praising PDP and rubbing it in our faces that they will come to rule us for another eight years! If na send dem send you, Olusola, tell dem say, we no buy am po ya message! If dem still no wan gree say we nor buy ya message, tell dem say we nor dey haus! Nonsesense and ingridients! Auspicious. Posted by Auspicious\| 22.03.2007 19:19

Auspicious Auspicious is offline
Villager


	# 7 =Forshow;163096>It look like some of you do not get the story that NVS has already become a 419 website.. Empowered Newswire have no website.. It may not even exist.. Another story from the house of 419er.. the same onwer of elendu, sahara reporter is also Empowered Newswire .. what we call 419.... I would update you on the poll is i have time.. AND what in hell are doing in the NVS House of 419, Forshow? Why don't you just get out of here if you think this medium "has become a 419 website"? Why do you keep coming back? What do you want? Oh wait, you want 419 services? 419 stories? A 419 mouthpiece or medium through which you can sell services as www.NigeriaONE.com? What, for goodness sake, would you want on a 419 website if you weren't a fraudster yourself? Next we will hear you talk about is your Christianly Born-Again reharsh; yet you engage in unwholesome smear of other people's good work without bothering to prove your allegations. Ewu Born Again! Auspicious. Posted by Auspicious\| 22.03.2007 19:36

olusola olusola is offline
Villager


	# 8 Auspy, Tell me which of these leading opposition parties is better than the PDP today. Also, I will like to know which of the leading opposition candidates is better than the PDP candidate. If you are talking about lack of internal democracy in PDP, what forced Tokunbo Afikuyomi, Jimi Agbaje and many other governorship candidates in Lagos out of the AC? You can also explain the circumstances that led Na Aba out of the AC governorship primaries. Were Aba Ibrahim and Sanni Yerima not forced out of the ANPP presidential primaries to make way for Buhari? How did Ume Ezeoke emerge as the ANPP VP candidate? Remember what happened in 2003 at the ANPP convention where some southern candidtates were duped to make way for Buhari. So,none of the leading opposition parties is better than PDP,even though PDP might not be a democratic party. Posted by olusola\| 22.03.2007 19:49

olusola olusola is offline
Villager


	# 9 Auspy, Just tell me if AC and ANPP leaders are more democratic and better than PDP leaders. You may argue that these are not the only parties in Nigeria,but unfortunately, they are the leading opposition members. Am not a PDP man, but just tell me which of the opposition parties is a credible alternative to PDP today. Am just being realistic. If you will be honest with yourself, you will surely know that no party stands the chance of defeating the PDP in this current arrangement. You may not want to hear it,but that's the truth. And if you think otherwise,we shall see in the next one month. Posted by olusola\| 22.03.2007 20:13

Auspicious Auspicious is offline
Villager


	# 10 The Bottomline, Mr. Olusola, is this: THE Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) has had EIGHT SOLID YEARS of leadership across the lenght and breadth of Nigeria since 2003, when it "captured" most of the leadership positions in the country. It has little or nothing to show, as far as development and progress goes, in spite of its dominance both in the executive and legislative offices across the land. As a matter of fact, things have worsened in many regards - especially the most critical ones that have a direct bearing on the life of the people most: electricity, road transport and energy. That is the crux (or koko) of the matter, my friend. You don't go about praising a failed party like that. You and your friends should be begging Nigerians and apologizing for your failure to deliver, instead of boasting about how you're gonna come capture power again for the next eight years. (Arrgh!) Anything can happen between now and May 29, so don't go doing Haruna around the Village:D. And please, take my whole comments into context when responding next time; what I said is not merely limited to parties and their internal problems, but the failure of the ruling party after eight years of dominance - amongst many other points. Auspicious. Posted by Auspicious\| 22.03.2007 20:26

The conversation continues in our forum. Click here to read all comments

Last Updated ( Thursday, 24 April 2008 )

< Prev		Next >

[ Back ]