Anambra State Governorship Election: An Opinion Poll

Holler Africa!
Opinion Research

We are happy to present the results of our first opinion poll for the February 6, 2010 gubernatorial elections in Anambra state. The survey was based on 9000 likely voters in the state, and was conducted on December 23-26, 2009 by a combination of telephone calls and direct interviews cutting across different social classes and encompassing respondents from the 21 local government areas of Anambra State living at Awka, Nnewi, Onitsha, Aguata, Ogbaru, Anambra East and Ihiala.

Focus was on the seven candidates we consider the leading contenders in the election. These candidates are: (Peter Obi (APGA); (Dr Chris Ngige, AC), (Prof Chukwuma Soludo, PDP), Andy Uba (Labour), (Mrs Uche Ekwunife, PPA); (Chief Okey Nwosu, ADC, and (Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu, HDP).

The total support for candidates outside the above seven is extremely small. We have used ‘Others' to capture this support in relevant instances

The "Undecided" are those who said they had not made up their minds on which candidate to support. The percentage of this group is again very small, confirming beliefs that people from the state tend to hold and express strong opinions.

The poll was conducted in collaboration with the independent, not-for-profit group, "Dozie Anambra Professionals".

Sincerely

Jideofor Adibe, PhD, LLM
CEO, Holler Africa!
Publisher, Adonis & Abbey Publishers Ltd.

Holler Africa! (www.hollerafrica.com)

Opinion Research

Interviews with 9000 likely voters in the February 6, 2010, gubernatorial elections in Anambra state conducted on December 23-26 2009 by a combination of telephone calls and direct interviews. Focus was on the seven candidates we consider the leading contenders in the election. These candidates are: (Peter Obi (APGA); (Dr Chris Ngige, AC) (Prof Chukwuma Soludo, PDP), Andy Uba (Labour), (Mrs Uche Ekwunife, PPA); (Chief Okey Nwosu, ADC, and (Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu, HDP). Respondents who express support for candidates outside these seven are lumped together under the category of ‘Others'.

The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

_______________________________________________________________

1) Do you think the election will be free and fair?

Explain….

Yes, it will be free and fair 59.5%

No, it won't 41.5%

Most of the respondents who thought the election would be free and fair mentioned the following: (i) that Professor Maurice Iwu would want to use it as an opportunity to redeem himself following the controversy that dogged the 2007 elections. (ii) that the INEC chairman would want to use it to make a case for his re-appointment (iii) that all eyes will be on Anambra state and for this reason, there will be a lot of pressure from both within and outside the country for INEC to get it right.

Most of those who thought the election will not be free mentioned: (i) that no state in Nigeria, in particular Anambra state, has a history of ‘free and ‘fair elections'; (ii) that the candidates in the election have big egos and deep pockets and will never concede defeat even when it is clear that they lost, (iii) that Professor Maurice Iwu will try to rig the election in favour of Andy Uba, who, they claimed influenced the appointment of the INEC chairman to his position.

_________________________________________________________________alt

2) If the elections were held tomorrow, which of the candidates will you vote for?

Explain…

Professor Chukwuma Soludo (PDP) 38%

Dr Chris Ngige (AC) 21%

Peter Obi (APGA) 19%

Andy Uba (Labour) 9%

Mrs Uche Ekwunife (PPA) 6%

Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu (HDC) 4%

Chief Okey Nwosu (ADC) 2%

Others 1%

For the above question, it is instructive to note that three of the seven candidates – Professor Soludo, Dr Ngige and Mr Obi – accounted for 72 percent of the total votes, suggesting that if the election were held today, it would be a three- horse race between the three candidates. However strategic alliances between the other ‘minor' candidates, or between any two of the leading three candidates, could change the dynamics of the contest. In the absence of such an alliance, were the elections to be held today, Professor Chukwuma Soludo would emerge as the new Governor of the state, according to the poll.

Most of the respondents who chose Professor Soludo mentioned: (i) his ‘intimidating' resume, achievements as CBN Governor, and vision for the state (ii) dissatisfaction with Governor Peter Obi, especially in the areas of crime, kidnapping and job creation (iii) that Anambra is a ‘PDP state' and PDP is determined to win the state, (iv) that defectors from the party such as Andy Uba, Mrs Uche Ekwunife and Nicholas Ekwunife, will find it difficult to attract open support from PDP party faithfuls such as Members of the House of Assembly for fear of sanction by the Party's National Working committee.

Those who favoured Dr Ngige mentioned the following: (i) that he was the first truly achieving Governor the state produced and accomplished more than the incumbent Governor with less than one-third of the funds at the disposal of Governor Obi (ii) that he is a ‘grassroots' man and really knows how the state should be moved forward.

Those who favoured Governor Peter Obi mentioned: (i) that he has done well and built more roads than Dr Chris Ngige (ii) that he is prudent with the state's resources and has saved the state money when other states are facing financial crisis (iii) that he appears to be a decent person.

Those who chose Mrs Uche Ekwunife mentioned: (i) that a woman ruling the state could help to lower Anambra's ever high political temperature (ii) that she is young and a grassroots person (iii) that PPA is the biggest Igbo party and should be made to win in all the Igbo states.

Most of those who chose Andy Uba mentioned that (i) he is so rich that he will not need to steal the state's money (ii) that he has contacts all over the country and could help to attract investments to the state.

3) Which candidate will be the most conservative in managing the state's resources?

Explain…

Peter Obi (APGA) 21%

Professor Chukwuma Soludo (PDP) 20%

Dr Chris Ngige (AC) 20%

Chief Okey Nwosu (ADC) 14%

Mrs Uche Ekwunife (PPA) 11%

Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu (HDC) 7%

Andy Uba (Labour) 6%

Others 1%

Most of those who chose Peter Obi or Dr Ngige pointed to (i) their records in prudently managing the state's finances.

Those who chose Professor Soludo argued that (i) though he is likely to spend more than other candidates because of costs associated with his ambitious programme of transformational change, (including his promise to give Anambra state the African- Dubai- Taiwan image and create hundreds of thousands of jobs), he is also likely to boost the state's revenues by using his national and international contacts to attract investments and other opportunities for the state.

Those who chose Ralph Okey Nwosu point to (i) his pedigree as a grass-to-grace businessman.

Those who chose Mrs Uche Ekwunife say that (i) women are traditionally good savers and resource managers.

________________________________________________________________

4) Which candidate is most likely to bring transformational changes and new opportunities to Anambra state?

Explain…

Professor Chukwuma Soludo (PDP) 35%

Dr Chris Ngige (AC) 24%

Peter Obi (APGA) 20%

Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu (HDC) 8%

Mrs Uche Ekwunife (PPA) 6%

Chief Okey Nwosu (ADC) 4%

Andy Uba (Labour) 3%

Most of those who chose Soludo mentioned: (i) his national and international contacts (ii) his transformation of the banking industry (iii) his global visions, (iv) his intelligence

Most of those who chose Dr Ngige mentioned: (i) his track record in office and (ii) that he is unlikely to be distracted again by ‘political godfathers'.

Most of those who chose Peter Obi mentioned: (i) his record in office and (ii) his being frugal with the state's resources

5) Which candidate is most likely to change the perception of the state for the better in terms of fighting crime, kidnapping and ‘godfatherism'

Explain….

Professor Chukwuma Soludo (PDP) 34%

Andy Uba (Labour) 21%

Dr Chris Ngige (AC) 19 %

Peter Obi (APGA) 16%

Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu (HDC) 4%

Chief Okey Nwosu (ADC) 3%

Mrs Uche Ekwunife (PPA) 2%

Others 1%

Most of those who chose Professor Soludo mentioned: (i) his courage, as demonstrated in the bank consolidation exercise, and (ii) the unlikelihood that he will be intimidated by the ‘godfathers'.Most of those who chose Andy Uba mention: (i) that he is so rich and knows how to fight from behind the scene that other godfathers will think twice before picking a fight with him; (ii) that he is likely to know how to use ‘unorthodox' methods to fight crime and kidnapping.

Most of those who chose Peter Obi mentioned that (i) he fought the godfathers to a standstill (ii) that he is beginning to win the war against kidnapping and armed robbery

Most of those who chose Ngige mentioned that (i) he fought the ‘godfathers' to a standstill when Obasanjo who was allegedly supporting them was in power, and will now find it easier to defeat them.

6) Who has the track record of performance, the experience, the skill sets and the vision to rapidly transform Anambra state and create massive job opportunities?

Explain…

Professor Chukwuma Soludo (PDP) 38%

Dr Chris Ngige (AC) 20%

Peter Obi (APGA) 15%

Andy Uba (LP) 8%

Chief Okey Nwosu (ADC) 7%

Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu (HDC) 5%

Uche Ekwunife (PPA) 5%

Others 2%

Most of those who chose Professor Soludo refer to (i) his impressive qualifications and exceptional performance in academics (ii) his record in public sector service, especially in the banking sector, where they say he transformed Nigerian banks to be among the strongest and fastest growing institutions in the world; (iv) his turning Nigerian banks into global multinational banks, which resulted in the doubling of the jobs created in banking and allied sectors such as insurance, mortgage and pensions.

Respondents who chose Dr Ngige mentioned that (i) that even though he had to contend with challenges from godfathers and a hostile federal government, he built, on a scale never seen before, basic infrastructure in Anambra state especially roads, that (ii) he is likely to broaden his area of focus if given another chance.

Most of those who chose Peter Obi argue that (i) another four years will allow him to accelerate development in the state and complete some of the projects he has initiated, that (ii) he will implement the Anambra state Master Plan in his second term in office, which will give the state a massive face-lift.

Most of the respondents who chose Andy Uba argue that (i) Andy Uba has worked in the heart of government in Abuja and knows how to identify competent hands that will help him transform the state, (ii) that he is a ‘quiet operator' who knows how to get things done without "blowing too much grammar".

Most of those who chose Ralph Okey Nwosu mention (i) his experience as a respected and honest businessman (ii) his experience in helping to build APGA into a respected political party.

__________________________________________________________________________

7) What do you consider the most important challenges that will face the new Governor of the state after the elections?

Kidnapping 30%

Unemployment 25%

Armed Robbery 20%

Constant power failure 10%

Lack of business opportunities 8%

Dirty, unplanned and unattractive cities 6%

Others 1%

_____________________________________________________________

The poll was conducted among residents of Awka, Nnewi, Onitsha, Aguata, Ogbaru, Anambra East and Ihiala. The sample is selected at random with some controls to ensure that selected respondents are as representative as possible of the various strata (age, social class, gender, etcetera in each area. The survey was conducted in collaboration with the not-for-profit group, "Dozie Anambra Professionals".



1 2 3
Re: Anambra State Governorship Election: An Opinion Poll
Ozion ozumba posted on 01-04-2010, 08:25:49 AM
What a Joker.Can't these paid hands come up with something better. Agenda setting is as old as PR, what comes next ?
Re: Anambra State Governorship Election: An Opinion Poll
Enyi posted on 01-04-2010, 08:39:51 AM
Interesting, but then who truly believes these results? It is amazing that majority of the participants believe the election will be free and fair. My advice to all parties, except PDP, is that they should not be deceived. They must remain vigilant and constantly fine tune a strategy that will ensure that every vote counts.
The only poll that actually matters will be done on February 6, 2010 and until then it is prudent to remember that eternal vigilance is the price of freedom.
Re: Anambra State Governorship Election: An Opinion Poll
Freedom posted on 01-04-2010, 11:16:39 AM
QUOTE:
...If the elections were held tomorrow, which of the candidates will you vote for?

ExplainÂ…

Professor Chukwuma Soludo (PDP) 38%
Dr Chris Ngige (AC) 21%
Peter Obi (APGA) 19%
Andy Uba (Labour) 9%
Mrs Uche Ekwunife (PPA) 6%
Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu (HDC) 4%
Chief Okey Nwosu (ADC) 2%
Others 1%

For the above question, it is instructive to note that three of the seven candidates – Professor Soludo, Dr Ngige and Mr Obi – accounted for 72 percent of the total votes, suggesting that if the election were held today, it would be a three- horse race between the three candidates
.


Why should one believe a poll where the pollsters can't carry out simple arithmetics - the bolded nos can be an indication of the way the results of the polls where arrived at - where the supposedly top 3 of their 7 cadidates added up to 78% and not 72% as stated, if one goes by the poll.
As aside, hope the pollsters also allowed for those that will sell their votes to the highest bidder when the time comes, if indeed their votes will count (not that one can blame the poor electorates!).

If one must comment on this Anambra Election, one cannot discount the shamed 'Andy' Uba as long as Iwu is in place at INEC. Whereas Soludo and his PDP cohorts will carry out their rigging before the 'results' get to INEC HQ for announcement to the public, 'Andy' and its Labour party hold sway where the results will be announed - INEC itself where the 'results' would have been written. This is akin to the proverbial two elephants fighting on the grass, i wonder what/who suffers...
Re: Anambra State Governorship Election: An Opinion Poll
Pcjadibe posted on 01-04-2010, 11:23:28 AM
Gentlemen and ladies (if any). Tnx for contributing to the discussions.

My name is Jideofor Adibe. My company is behind the poll. I do not begrudge anyone the right to differ, but let's have a discussion to advance the process.

In 2003, when I started a publishing company, Adonis & Abbey Publishers (www.adonis-abbey.com), we received the sort of crticisms our modest polling effort appear to be getting here. We were told it was a reserve of certain races. I humbly disagreed. When we said we would publish academic books, we were told it was impossible and reminded of all the obstacles: Where is the money? Academics are too difficult to control etc
Today, seven years down the line, we havent exactly become the equivalent of Microsoft in the industry, but we are still around and I believe we are taken quite serious. We have also been publishing journals since 200 without missing deadlines (many of these journals are peer-reviewed and they hardly miss deadlines. At the risk of sounding immodest, I do not know of any African publisher that has tried it.

With this little antecedent, if you believe I was paid for this, you will be entitled to your opinion. I have worked with the National Opinion Poll (NOP) in the UK and believe I have the skillsets to try such in my home state-despite the logistic problems.

Holler Africa has been around since 2005. I regularly receive emails from AC (especially from Rivers and Anambra state), thanking me for "my support". I recently wrote an article supporting the award oif a doctorate to Andy Uba and was accused of being an Uba hireling, which sounded rather interesting to me, because apart from his politics, he appears likeable. Now I am supposed to be a paid PDP agent. There is no bitterness in such allegation because by publishing this we are subjecting our findings and ideas to the haggling of the marketplace of ideas.

Our modest effort, which I will be the first to admit, is not an exact science and not fool proof (exit polls will give a better picture of voters' behaviour), is our modest contribution to the political process in my home state. If it helps to stimulate debate - for good or bad, then part of the aim is fulfilled.

Happy New Year to all

Jideofor
Re: Anambra State Governorship Election: An Opinion Poll
Wolvrine posted on 01-04-2010, 11:25:07 AM
I think the results of this poll would've been more credible and the poll itself would have benefit from more transparency if it had been conducted openly. Why telephone interviews and discussions with an unidentifiable group? We have only your word for it that they were in fact Igbos, or that the exercise was indeed conducted.

However, I wouldn't dismiss the polls as 'rubbish' - quite a number of Igbos I've chatted with favour Soludo in particular. Although I AM surprised that a majority anywhere in 9ja would expect a free and fair election. We hope and pray.
Anambra State Governorship Election: An Opinion Poll
Holler Africa in collaboration with Dozie Anambra Professionals posted on 01-04-2010, 13:09:06 PM

Holler Africa!

Opinion Research


We are happy to present the results of our first opinion poll for the February 6, 2010 gubernatorial elections in Anambra state. The survey was based on 9000 likely voters in the state, and was conducted on December 23-26, 2009 by a combination of telephone calls and direct interviews cutting across different social classes and encompassing respondents from the 21 local government areas of Anambra State living at Awka, Nnewi, Onitsha, Aguata, Ogbaru, Anambra East and Ihiala.


Focus was on the seven candidates we consider the leading contenders in the election. These candidates are: (Peter Obi (APGA); (Dr Chris Ngige, AC), (Prof Chukwuma Soludo, PDP), Andy Uba (Labour), (Mrs Uche Ekwunife, PPA); (Chief Okey Nwosu, ADC, and (Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu, HDP).


The total support for candidates outside the above seven is extremely small. We have used ‘Others' to capture this support in relevant instances


The "Undecided" are those who said they had not made up their minds on which candidate to support. The percentage of this group is again very small, confirming beliefs that people from the state tend to hold and express strong opinions.


The poll was conducted in collaboration with the independent, not-for-profit group, "Dozie Anambra Professionals".


Sincerely


Jideofor Adibe, PhD, LLM

CEO, Holler Africa!

Publisher, Adonis & Abbey Publishers Ltd.


Holler Africa! (www.hollerafrica.com)


Opinion Research


Interviews with 9000 likely voters in the February 6, 2010, gubernatorial elections in Anambra state conducted on December 23-26 2009 by a combination of telephone calls and direct interviews. Focus was on the seven candidates we consider the leading contenders in the election. These candidates are: (Peter Obi (APGA); (Dr Chris Ngige, AC) (Prof Chukwuma Soludo, PDP), Andy Uba (Labour), (Mrs Uche Ekwunife, PPA); (Chief Okey Nwosu, ADC, and (Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu, HDP). Respondents who express support for candidates outside these seven are lumped together under the category of ‘Others'.


The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points.


_______________________________________________________________


1) Do you think the election will be free and fair?


ExplainÂ….


Yes, it will be free and fair 59.5%


No, it won't 41.5%


Most of the respondents who thought the election would be free and fair mentioned the following: (i) that Professor Maurice Iwu would want to use it as an opportunity to redeem himself following the controversy that dogged the 2007 elections. (ii) that the INEC chairman would want to use it to make a case for his re-appointment (iii) that all eyes will be on Anambra state and for this reason, there will be a lot of pressure from both within and outside the country for INEC to get it right.


Most of those who thought the election will not be free mentioned: (i) that no state in Nigeria, in particular Anambra state, has a history of ‘free and ‘fair elections'; (ii) that the candidates in the election have big egos and deep pockets and will never concede defeat even when it is clear that they lost, (iii) that Professor Maurice Iwu will try to rig the election in favour of Andy Uba, who, they claimed influenced the appointment of the INEC chairman to his position.


_________________________________________________________________alt


2) If the elections were held tomorrow, which of the candidates will you vote for?


ExplainÂ…


Professor Chukwuma Soludo (PDP) 38%


Dr Chris Ngige (AC) 21%


Peter Obi (APGA) 19%


Andy Uba (Labour) 9%


Mrs Uche Ekwunife (PPA) 6%


Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu (HDC) 4%


Chief Okey Nwosu (ADC) 2%


Others 1%


For the above question, it is instructive to note that three of the seven candidates – Professor Soludo, Dr Ngige and Mr Obi – accounted for 72 percent of the total votes, suggesting that if the election were held today, it would be a three- horse race between the three candidates. However strategic alliances between the other ‘minor' candidates, or between any two of the leading three candidates, could change the dynamics of the contest. In the absence of such an alliance, were the elections to be held today, Professor Chukwuma Soludo would emerge as the new Governor of the state, according to the poll.


Most of the respondents who chose Professor Soludo mentioned: (i) his ‘intimidating' resume, achievements as CBN Governor, and vision for the state (ii) dissatisfaction with Governor Peter Obi, especially in the areas of crime, kidnapping and job creation (iii) that Anambra is a ‘PDP state' and PDP is determined to win the state, (iv) that defectors from the party such as Andy Uba, Mrs Uche Ekwunife and Nicholas Ekwunife, will find it difficult to attract open support from PDP party faithfuls such as Members of the House of Assembly for fear of sanction by the Party's National Working committee.


Those who favoured Dr Ngige mentioned the following: (i) that he was the first truly achieving Governor the state produced and accomplished more than the incumbent Governor with less than one-third of the funds at the disposal of Governor Obi (ii) that he is a ‘grassroots' man and really knows how the state should be moved forward.


Those who favoured Governor Peter Obi mentioned: (i) that he has done well and built more roads than Dr Chris Ngige (ii) that he is prudent with the state's resources and has saved the state money when other states are facing financial crisis (iii) that he appears to be a decent person.


Those who chose Mrs Uche Ekwunife mentioned: (i) that a woman ruling the state could help to lower Anambra's ever high political temperature (ii) that she is young and a grassroots person (iii) that PPA is the biggest Igbo party and should be made to win in all the Igbo states.


Most of those who chose Andy Uba mentioned that (i) he is so rich that he will not need to steal the state's money (ii) that he has contacts all over the country and could help to attract investments to the state.


3) Which candidate will be the most conservative in managing the state's resources?


ExplainÂ…


Peter Obi (APGA) 21%


Professor Chukwuma Soludo (PDP) 20%


Dr Chris Ngige (AC) 20%


Chief Okey Nwosu (ADC) 14%


Mrs Uche Ekwunife (PPA) 11%


Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu (HDC) 7%


Andy Uba (Labour) 6%


Others 1%


Most of those who chose Peter Obi or Dr Ngige pointed to (i) their records in prudently managing the state's finances.


Those who chose Professor Soludo argued that (i) though he is likely to spend more than other candidates because of costs associated with his ambitious programme of transformational change, (including his promise to give Anambra state the African- Dubai- Taiwan image and create hundreds of thousands of jobs), he is also likely to boost the state's revenues by using his national and international contacts to attract investments and other opportunities for the state.


Those who chose Ralph Okey Nwosu point to (i) his pedigree as a grass-to-grace businessman.


Those who chose Mrs Uche Ekwunife say that (i) women are traditionally good savers and resource managers.


________________________________________________________________


4) Which candidate is most likely to bring transformational changes and new opportunities to Anambra state?


ExplainÂ…


Professor Chukwuma Soludo (PDP) 35%


Dr Chris Ngige (AC) 24%


Peter Obi (APGA) 20%


Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu (HDC) 8%


Mrs Uche Ekwunife (PPA) 6%


Chief Okey Nwosu (ADC) 4%


Andy Uba (Labour) 3%


Most of those who chose Soludo mentioned: (i) his national and international contacts (ii) his transformation of the banking industry (iii) his global visions, (iv) his intelligence


Most of those who chose Dr Ngige mentioned: (i) his track record in office and (ii) that he is unlikely to be distracted again by ‘political godfathers'.


Most of those who chose Peter Obi mentioned: (i) his record in office and (ii) his being frugal with the state's resources


5) Which candidate is most likely to change the perception of the state for the better in terms of fighting crime, kidnapping and ‘godfatherism'


ExplainÂ….


Professor Chukwuma Soludo (PDP) 34%


Andy Uba (Labour) 21%


Dr Chris Ngige (AC) 19 %


Peter Obi (APGA) 16%


Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu (HDC) 4%


Chief Okey Nwosu (ADC) 3%


Mrs Uche Ekwunife (PPA) 2%


Others 1%


Most of those who chose Professor Soludo mentioned: (i) his courage, as demonstrated in the bank consolidation exercise, and (ii) the unlikelihood that he will be intimidated by the ‘godfathers'.Most of those who chose Andy Uba mention: (i) that he is so rich and knows how to fight from behind the scene that other godfathers will think twice before picking a fight with him; (ii) that he is likely to know how to use ‘unorthodox' methods to fight crime and kidnapping.


Most of those who chose Peter Obi mentioned that (i) he fought the godfathers to a standstill (ii) that he is beginning to win the war against kidnapping and armed robbery


Most of those who chose Ngige mentioned that (i) he fought the ‘godfathers' to a standstill when Obasanjo who was allegedly supporting them was in power, and will now find it easier to defeat them.


6) Who has the track record of performance, the experience, the skill sets and the vision to rapidly transform Anambra state and create massive job opportunities?


ExplainÂ…


Professor Chukwuma Soludo (PDP) 38%


Dr Chris Ngige (AC) 20%


Peter Obi (APGA) 15%


Andy Uba (LP) 8%


Chief Okey Nwosu (ADC) 7%


Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu (HDC) 5%


Uche Ekwunife (PPA) 5%


Others 2%


Most of those who chose Professor Soludo refer to (i) his impressive qualifications and exceptional performance in academics (ii) his record in public sector service, especially in the banking sector, where they say he transformed Nigerian banks to be among the strongest and fastest growing institutions in the world; (iv) his turning Nigerian banks into global multinational banks, which resulted in the doubling of the jobs created in banking and allied sectors such as insurance, mortgage and pensions.


Respondents who chose Dr Ngige mentioned that (i) that even though he had to contend with challenges from godfathers and a hostile federal government, he built, on a scale never seen before, basic infrastructure in Anambra state especially roads, that (ii) he is likely to broaden his area of focus if given another chance.


Most of those who chose Peter Obi argue that (i) another four years will allow him to accelerate development in the state and complete some of the projects he has initiated, that (ii) he will implement the Anambra state Master Plan in his second term in office, which will give the state a massive face-lift.


Most of the respondents who chose Andy Uba argue that (i) Andy Uba has worked in the heart of government in Abuja and knows how to identify competent hands that will help him transform the state, (ii) that he is a ‘quiet operator' who knows how to get things done without "blowing too much grammar".


Most of those who chose Ralph Okey Nwosu mention (i) his experience as a respected and honest businessman (ii) his experience in helping to build APGA into a respected political party.


__________________________________________________________________________


7) What do you consider the most important challenges that will face the new Governor of the state after the elections?


Kidnapping 30%


Unemployment 25%


Armed Robbery 20%


Constant power failure 10%


Lack of business opportunities 8%


Dirty, unplanned and unattractive cities 6%


Others 1%



_____________________________________________________________


The poll was conducted among residents of Awka, Nnewi, Onitsha, Aguata, Ogbaru, Anambra East and Ihiala. The sample is selected at random with some controls to ensure that selected respondents are as representative as possible of the various strata (age, social class, gender, etcetera in each area. The survey was conducted in collaboration with the not-for-profit group, "Dozie Anambra Professionals".



..Read the full article
Re: Anambra State Governorship Election: An Opinion Poll
YUAN posted on 01-04-2010, 13:09:06 PM

Holler Africa!

Opinion Research


We are happy to present the results of our first opinion poll for the February 6, 2010 gubernatorial elections in Anambra state. The survey was based on 9000 likely voters in the state, and was conducted on December 23-26, 2009 by a combination of telephone calls and direct interviews cutting across different social classes and encompassing respondents from the 21 local government areas of Anambra State living at Awka, Nnewi, Onitsha, Aguata, Ogbaru, Anambra East and Ihiala.


Focus was on the seven candidates we consider the leading contenders in the election. These candidates are: (Peter Obi (APGA); (Dr Chris Ngige, AC), (Prof Chukwuma Soludo, PDP), Andy Uba (Labour), (Mrs Uche Ekwunife, PPA); (Chief Okey Nwosu, ADC, and (Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu, HDP).


The total support for candidates outside the above seven is extremely small. We have used ‘Others' to capture this support in relevant instances


The "Undecided" are those who said they had not made up their minds on which candidate to support. The percentage of this group is again very small, confirming beliefs that people from the state tend to hold and express strong opinions.


The poll was conducted in collaboration with the independent, not-for-profit group, "Dozie Anambra Professionals".


Sincerely


Jideofor Adibe, PhD, LLM

CEO, Holler Africa!

Publisher, Adonis & Abbey Publishers Ltd.


Holler Africa! (www.hollerafrica.com)


Opinion Research


Interviews with 9000 likely voters in the February 6, 2010, gubernatorial elections in Anambra state conducted on December 23-26 2009 by a combination of telephone calls and direct interviews. Focus was on the seven candidates we consider the leading contenders in the election. These candidates are: (Peter Obi (APGA); (Dr Chris Ngige, AC) (Prof Chukwuma Soludo, PDP), Andy Uba (Labour), (Mrs Uche Ekwunife, PPA); (Chief Okey Nwosu, ADC, and (Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu, HDP). Respondents who express support for candidates outside these seven are lumped together under the category of ‘Others'.


The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points.


_______________________________________________________________


1) Do you think the election will be free and fair?


ExplainÂ….


Yes, it will be free and fair 59.5%


No, it won't 41.5%


Most of the respondents who thought the election would be free and fair mentioned the following: (i) that Professor Maurice Iwu would want to use it as an opportunity to redeem himself following the controversy that dogged the 2007 elections. (ii) that the INEC chairman would want to use it to make a case for his re-appointment (iii) that all eyes will be on Anambra state and for this reason, there will be a lot of pressure from both within and outside the country for INEC to get it right.


Most of those who thought the election will not be free mentioned: (i) that no state in Nigeria, in particular Anambra state, has a history of ‘free and ‘fair elections'; (ii) that the candidates in the election have big egos and deep pockets and will never concede defeat even when it is clear that they lost, (iii) that Professor Maurice Iwu will try to rig the election in favour of Andy Uba, who, they claimed influenced the appointment of the INEC chairman to his position.


_________________________________________________________________alt


2) If the elections were held tomorrow, which of the candidates will you vote for?


ExplainÂ…


Professor Chukwuma Soludo (PDP) 38%


Dr Chris Ngige (AC) 21%


Peter Obi (APGA) 19%


Andy Uba (Labour) 9%


Mrs Uche Ekwunife (PPA) 6%


Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu (HDC) 4%


Chief Okey Nwosu (ADC) 2%


Others 1%


For the above question, it is instructive to note that three of the seven candidates – Professor Soludo, Dr Ngige and Mr Obi – accounted for 72 percent of the total votes, suggesting that if the election were held today, it would be a three- horse race between the three candidates. However strategic alliances between the other ‘minor' candidates, or between any two of the leading three candidates, could change the dynamics of the contest. In the absence of such an alliance, were the elections to be held today, Professor Chukwuma Soludo would emerge as the new Governor of the state, according to the poll.


Most of the respondents who chose Professor Soludo mentioned: (i) his ‘intimidating' resume, achievements as CBN Governor, and vision for the state (ii) dissatisfaction with Governor Peter Obi, especially in the areas of crime, kidnapping and job creation (iii) that Anambra is a ‘PDP state' and PDP is determined to win the state, (iv) that defectors from the party such as Andy Uba, Mrs Uche Ekwunife and Nicholas Ekwunife, will find it difficult to attract open support from PDP party faithfuls such as Members of the House of Assembly for fear of sanction by the Party's National Working committee.


Those who favoured Dr Ngige mentioned the following: (i) that he was the first truly achieving Governor the state produced and accomplished more than the incumbent Governor with less than one-third of the funds at the disposal of Governor Obi (ii) that he is a ‘grassroots' man and really knows how the state should be moved forward.


Those who favoured Governor Peter Obi mentioned: (i) that he has done well and built more roads than Dr Chris Ngige (ii) that he is prudent with the state's resources and has saved the state money when other states are facing financial crisis (iii) that he appears to be a decent person.


Those who chose Mrs Uche Ekwunife mentioned: (i) that a woman ruling the state could help to lower Anambra's ever high political temperature (ii) that she is young and a grassroots person (iii) that PPA is the biggest Igbo party and should be made to win in all the Igbo states.


Most of those who chose Andy Uba mentioned that (i) he is so rich that he will not need to steal the state's money (ii) that he has contacts all over the country and could help to attract investments to the state.


3) Which candidate will be the most conservative in managing the state's resources?


ExplainÂ…


Peter Obi (APGA) 21%


Professor Chukwuma Soludo (PDP) 20%


Dr Chris Ngige (AC) 20%


Chief Okey Nwosu (ADC) 14%


Mrs Uche Ekwunife (PPA) 11%


Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu (HDC) 7%


Andy Uba (Labour) 6%


Others 1%


Most of those who chose Peter Obi or Dr Ngige pointed to (i) their records in prudently managing the state's finances.


Those who chose Professor Soludo argued that (i) though he is likely to spend more than other candidates because of costs associated with his ambitious programme of transformational change, (including his promise to give Anambra state the African- Dubai- Taiwan image and create hundreds of thousands of jobs), he is also likely to boost the state's revenues by using his national and international contacts to attract investments and other opportunities for the state.


Those who chose Ralph Okey Nwosu point to (i) his pedigree as a grass-to-grace businessman.


Those who chose Mrs Uche Ekwunife say that (i) women are traditionally good savers and resource managers.


________________________________________________________________


4) Which candidate is most likely to bring transformational changes and new opportunities to Anambra state?


ExplainÂ…


Professor Chukwuma Soludo (PDP) 35%


Dr Chris Ngige (AC) 24%


Peter Obi (APGA) 20%


Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu (HDC) 8%


Mrs Uche Ekwunife (PPA) 6%


Chief Okey Nwosu (ADC) 4%


Andy Uba (Labour) 3%


Most of those who chose Soludo mentioned: (i) his national and international contacts (ii) his transformation of the banking industry (iii) his global visions, (iv) his intelligence


Most of those who chose Dr Ngige mentioned: (i) his track record in office and (ii) that he is unlikely to be distracted again by ‘political godfathers'.


Most of those who chose Peter Obi mentioned: (i) his record in office and (ii) his being frugal with the state's resources


5) Which candidate is most likely to change the perception of the state for the better in terms of fighting crime, kidnapping and ‘godfatherism'


ExplainÂ….


Professor Chukwuma Soludo (PDP) 34%


Andy Uba (Labour) 21%


Dr Chris Ngige (AC) 19 %


Peter Obi (APGA) 16%


Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu (HDC) 4%


Chief Okey Nwosu (ADC) 3%


Mrs Uche Ekwunife (PPA) 2%


Others 1%


Most of those who chose Professor Soludo mentioned: (i) his courage, as demonstrated in the bank consolidation exercise, and (ii) the unlikelihood that he will be intimidated by the ‘godfathers'.Most of those who chose Andy Uba mention: (i) that he is so rich and knows how to fight from behind the scene that other godfathers will think twice before picking a fight with him; (ii) that he is likely to know how to use ‘unorthodox' methods to fight crime and kidnapping.


Most of those who chose Peter Obi mentioned that (i) he fought the godfathers to a standstill (ii) that he is beginning to win the war against kidnapping and armed robbery


Most of those who chose Ngige mentioned that (i) he fought the ‘godfathers' to a standstill when Obasanjo who was allegedly supporting them was in power, and will now find it easier to defeat them.


6) Who has the track record of performance, the experience, the skill sets and the vision to rapidly transform Anambra state and create massive job opportunities?


ExplainÂ…


Professor Chukwuma Soludo (PDP) 38%


Dr Chris Ngige (AC) 20%


Peter Obi (APGA) 15%


Andy Uba (LP) 8%


Chief Okey Nwosu (ADC) 7%


Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu (HDC) 5%


Uche Ekwunife (PPA) 5%


Others 2%


Most of those who chose Professor Soludo refer to (i) his impressive qualifications and exceptional performance in academics (ii) his record in public sector service, especially in the banking sector, where they say he transformed Nigerian banks to be among the strongest and fastest growing institutions in the world; (iv) his turning Nigerian banks into global multinational banks, which resulted in the doubling of the jobs created in banking and allied sectors such as insurance, mortgage and pensions.


Respondents who chose Dr Ngige mentioned that (i) that even though he had to contend with challenges from godfathers and a hostile federal government, he built, on a scale never seen before, basic infrastructure in Anambra state especially roads, that (ii) he is likely to broaden his area of focus if given another chance.


Most of those who chose Peter Obi argue that (i) another four years will allow him to accelerate development in the state and complete some of the projects he has initiated, that (ii) he will implement the Anambra state Master Plan in his second term in office, which will give the state a massive face-lift.


Most of the respondents who chose Andy Uba argue that (i) Andy Uba has worked in the heart of government in Abuja and knows how to identify competent hands that will help him transform the state, (ii) that he is a ‘quiet operator' who knows how to get things done without "blowing too much grammar".


Most of those who chose Ralph Okey Nwosu mention (i) his experience as a respected and honest businessman (ii) his experience in helping to build APGA into a respected political party.


__________________________________________________________________________


7) What do you consider the most important challenges that will face the new Governor of the state after the elections?


Kidnapping 30%


Unemployment 25%


Armed Robbery 20%


Constant power failure 10%


Lack of business opportunities 8%


Dirty, unplanned and unattractive cities 6%


Others 1%



_____________________________________________________________


The poll was conducted among residents of Awka, Nnewi, Onitsha, Aguata, Ogbaru, Anambra East and Ihiala. The sample is selected at random with some controls to ensure that selected respondents are as representative as possible of the various strata (age, social class, gender, etcetera in each area. The survey was conducted in collaboration with the not-for-profit group, "Dozie Anambra Professionals".



..Read the full article
Re: Anambra State Governorship Election: An Opinion Poll
Uncle Sam posted on 01-04-2010, 18:13:10 PM
This was a professionally well done poll. However, I recommend that you ask less questions in future endeavors. Question 2 should have been it.

In a lawless and insane society, like Nigeria, albeit Anambra State, any attempt to predict sanity through polls will sometimes be seen as rubbish but we have to start somewhere.

From the benchmarks you used to achieve these results, it is clear you did a clean job. Well done.

I wish, more newspapers will do more polls at times of elections. We will then know such publishing houses that are sellouts -at least in a free and fair elections.


I am very impressed.
Re: Anambra State Governorship Election: An Opinion Poll
Emeka008 posted on 01-04-2010, 22:58:48 PM
The write up might appear impressive but the poll is so unscientific.

Basic issues that matter were completely ignored.
Some contributors already pointed out that voters and their votes don't count in Nigeria's elections ; and even if this poll was properly conducted, it still would be meaningless if voters don't decide elections in Nigeria.

For the sake of argument, let's say voters matter in Anambara state. But the pollsters in this survey do not define who they think are 'likely voters'.
They make no mention of the electoral register; if they had sight of it or if their poll participants are 'likely voters' because they are properly registered to vote.

Why should a pollster chose to rely so heavily on mobile phones in a country where mobile phones are not tied to any demographic details like age or addresses?

In many ways, this poll is hopelessly flawed. What is the size of the electoral register? Why did you have to interview as many as 9000 respondents for a very small state like Anambara? How did you choose who to interview? There are just too many flaws in this poll that it is not worth reporting it let alone take it that seriously.
Re: Anambra State Governorship Election: An Opinion Poll
Uncle Sam posted on 01-04-2010, 23:34:23 PM
QUOTE:
The write up might appear impressive but the poll is so unscientific.

Basic issues that matter were completely ignored.
Some contributors already pointed out that voters and their votes don't count in Nigeria's elections ; and even if this poll was properly conducted, it still would be meaningless if voters don't decide elections in Nigeria.

For the sake of argument, let's say voters matter in Anambara state. But the pollsters in this survey do not define who they think are 'likely voters'.
They make no mention of the electoral register; if they had sight of it or if their poll participants are 'likely voters' because they are properly registered to vote.

Why should a pollster chose to rely so heavily on mobile phones in a country where mobile phones are not tied to any demographic details like age or addresses?

In many ways, this poll is hopelessly flawed. What is the size of the electoral register? Why did you have to interview as many as 9000 respondents for a very small state like Anambara? How did you choose who to interview? There are just too many flaws in this poll that it is not worth reporting it let alone take it that seriously.


Do you really understand what polling rules are let alone know how it is done? Did you read the Author's article in full? By your comments and many others like yours, it would have been better if you made no comments.
1 2 3
Please register before you can make new comment