My prophecy for 2011


          Idang Alibi 

I had cause to say last week in this column in a piece entitled Let us brace up for eight years of Yar'Adua that unless an act of fate happens, nothing on earth will stop President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua and the PDP from coasting home to comprehensive victory in the 2011 general elections. I said that there is nothing on ground now and I wish to reiterate here that there is no indication whatsoever that in the next two years, something monumental will happen on the political scene to shake the dominance of the PDP.

If anything, the fortunes of that formidable party will further improve with more governors, chairmen of local government councils, councilors and states and national legislators decamping from other parties and swelling its ranks and sharpening its wining edge and ways.

For example, given the very effusive praises that Edo and Ondo states' governors Adams Oshiombhole and Olusegun Mimiko heaped on President Yar'Adua for obeying his rule of law mantra and ÔÇśallowing' the judiciary to declare them as governors, I will not be surprised in the least if in the next few days they too join the bandwagon of decamping to the PDP.

This week, I wish to say here that unless an act of fate happens to prevent elections from being held in 2011, we are going to witness a very interesting manifestation of this our very amazing ÔÇśhome-grown democracy'. The PDP is going to teach the world what I call ÔÇśTrue African democracy'. After all, the PDP is the largest political party in Africa and probably the third largest party in the world after the Communist party in China and the Congress Party in India and so it must have some bag of tricks to teach some people a thing or two.

"Mr. Idang Alibi, please spare us all this preamble and go straight to your prophecy. We are all waiting for it. What does your crystal say about elections in Nigeria in the make or mar year of 2011?" I can hear some one ask.

Let me make a confession. Although I am prophet, I am not specifically called to the office of political prophecy but having been a keen student of Nigerian politics for over two and a half decades now, I can see clearly what will happen in 2011.

A foretaste of what will happen in 2011 was given last week in a very significant news story which ought to have been put on the front page but which one apparently mentally fatigued editor inexplicably buried in the inside page. And what was the news item? To settle what is obviously an embarrassing Executive Siblings wrangling between Kwara Governor Bukola Saraki and his dear sister Senator Gbemisola Saraki who is angling to succeed her brother whose tenure will end in 2011, the Kwara State strongman, kingmaker and determiner and decider and settler of political events, Chief (Dr.) Olusola Saraki, the Oloye himself, told the nation that this week he will announce who the governor of Kwara State for 2011 will be.

My prophecy therefore is that the year 2011 in Nigeria will be a year of Great Announcement. Those who wish to hold elective offices will no longer be selected, appointed or allotted or zoned an office as has been much of the practice but will now be ÔÇśannounced' by godfathers and political fixers so as not to waste anybody's time, energy and money. This will be so wise and considerate of our leaders.

One smart and patriotic man, most certainly from the PDP, is going to come out with the idea that in view of the global economic recession and the insurgency in the Niger Delta region that have adversely affected Nigeria's economic fortunes, it will not make much sense to continue to spend billions of scarce Naira for elections. He will say that since the beginning of this home grown democracy in 1999, the country must have spent close to 100 billion Naira on elections that have neither been adjudged free nor fair nor credible by any one, native or foreign, so why should any one even bother about holding more elections which will not be hailed as meeting the standards of elections in other countries?

He will say also that since the beginning of this Fourth Republic to date Nigeria has lost about 20 billion Naira worth of property to election-related violence. Over 10, 000 lives must have been lost and over 20,000 persons must be suffering permanent deformities as a result of election violence. What is the sense in continuing with elections when the cost in material and human terms is so high?

He will also argue that since Nigerians have shown in a very overwhelming manner that they feel very safe to entrust their destiny in the hands of the big umbrella, the PDP, in preference to other 53 parties, as shown clearly in the fact that the PDP is in effective control of 30 of the 36 states of the federation, there is no great need to go to the pools to indicate any further preference. The people have already spoken that it is PDP they want and there is not much sense in the party pretending that other parties should participate in the process of electing, sorry selecting, officials. The Central Working Committee of the party will therefore summon an extraordinary meeting in which the INEC chairman and other carefully selected ÔÇśstakeholders' will agree on a list of all men and women who should fill positions right from the presidency to the councilor in the ward. INEC chair Maurice Iwu will be mandated to just announce the names of those arrived at through that consensus-building stakeholders' meeting.

Some one will volunteer the opinion that it will be important for the PDP to give the impression that democracy is alive and thriving in Nigeria so it will be tactical for the PDP to concede Lagos and Ekiti to the AC; Anambra to the APGA; Abia to the PPA and Kano and Yobe to the ANPP. This gentleman will be shouted down. In order not for him to be marked down as an anti-party agent and denied the largesse of the party, this gentleman will quickly plead that he was merely trying to pull the legs of others. Every one will express relief at his volte-face and continue with the serious business of sharing and announcing offices on hand.

I prophesy that come the very important year 2011, one north east governor will announce his wife as his successor; his octogenarian father as secretary to her government and his son as the mother's commissioner for finance in a novel form of constitutional nepotism.

I can see clearly on my crystal ball I therefore make bold to further announce that one departing governor from the north central zone of the country will announce his son in- law as his successor. When a hue and cry arises about this he is going to wonder whether his son in-law, an adult and a bonafide citizen of the state should not be governor on account of his marriage to his daughter. When did being a son-in law to a departing governor become a hindrance to the ambition of any one? He will ask in righteous indignation.

I am not boasting. But with the deep political insight I have let me further prophesy with every authority at my command that in 2011, a PDP big wig who lives in Abuja but teleguides everything in his local government area in a south-south state, is going to make his crooked but loyal cook the chairman of his local government area. This is to ensure uninterrupted supply of his favourite wine Moet and to also guarantee the endless supply of a bevy of the most delectable ÔÇśsweet sixteens' who will massage away the pains of his old age. The cook is from another state of the region so people are going to engage in loud murmuring and grumbling about the decision of this political godfather which will surely deny a son of the soil the opportunity to occupy this most strategic position. The man will call the political ÔÇśstakeholders' in the local government to try to convince them (of course with wads of mint-fresh Naira notes) that he has brought a stranger from another place to govern their LGA to portray his people as a liberal and accommodating people. The people will applaud him as a living legend endowed with enormous political sagacity and resolve among themselves to learn to live with the crooked chairman. This is because Nigerians rarely protest anything no matter how outrageous and unprincipled the act may be. They only know how to applaud everything done by their ÔÇśleaders'.

I have said it that the year 2011 will be a year of great announcement. And the nation will have very many shocking announcements. In one place, a prostitute will be announced as representative of the people in one important position. In another, it will be a notorious armed robber who will tell everybody that he has turned a new leaf. All of these and many more inanities will happen. Let us be prepared to accept them. After all it is in our character to accept anything, just anything done by pour leaders to ÔÇśmove the nation forward'. 2011 will be a year of announcement. Personally, I am dying of waiting to see what will happen in that great year.


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Re: My Prophecy For 2011
LoveNigeria posted on 08-11-2009, 14:18:28 PM
.......This week, I wish to say here that unless an act of fate happens to prevent elections from being held in 2011, we are going to witness a very interesting manifestation of this our very amazing ┬Ĺhome-grown democracy'....[URL=]Read the full article.[/URL]

Actually it may not be an act of faith !

I read that Yaradua is headed to Saudi Arabia for treatment again. I kept "seeing" General or Colonel Oriburuku reading a speech that starts with "fellow Nigerian" while Yaradua rots away on a hospital bed in Saudi Arabia. I dismissed it -maybe my mind playing tricks on me.

On further thought I realized that the North will find it hard to sidestep Jonathan given the current political climate in Nigeria -if Yaradua were to die.

A preemptive coup seem the only way the North can hang on to power. The Northern oligarch may not want to take the risk of doing nothing while Yaradua rots away in Saudi Arabia. These people are very calculating we should remember Abacha and Abiola's death all within days.

Of course these could all be wrong -we'll see.
MrOneNaija posted on 08-11-2009, 18:23:32 PM

As if to further underline their posturing antics of hypocrisy or outright duplicity, Nigeria's self-acclaimed human rights/pro-democracy high priests in the likes of Wole Soyinka and his foot-soldiers were quick to harp on the denunciatory aspect of President Obama's Accra address regarding especially the misgovernance of sub-Saharan Africa's insane and corrupt tin gods calling themselves leaders. Relatively very little thought was spared by our democracy pretenders as to the essential fact that the Obama speech did significantly devote much of its focus to the imperative of home-grown qualitative change in Nigeria and elsewhere on the African continent away from the untenable status quo.

At a philosophical level of significance, Obama's indictment of the various local tyrants, their agents as well as their eminence grise must be seen as bearing a secondary consideration compared to his emphasis on the nonchalant, laissez-faire comportment of the people vis-a-vis tyranny which has been the greatest incentive for the kind of barbaric and medieval impunity Nigeria and Africa in general have witnessed since their independence from alien colonialists.

Nigeria's self-styled human rights/pro-democracy advocates are an interesting lot. When it suits them, they conjure up all sorts of syrupy alibis to justify their inaction as well as complicity and support regarding crooked rulers. A favorite alibi during the ghastly tyranny of the grotesque dictator called Obasanjo who ruled between 1999 and 2007 was that criticizing the immoral and criminal ways of the ex-tyrant would risk undermining his regime and thereby helping invite a coup d'├ętat! And so, when the opposition hinted on the idea of a masses-based public demonstration to drive home the people's repudiation of the 419 "elections" of 2003, pro-democracy lights led by Soyinka and those voices in the established media in particular that share ideological kinship with the man thought it was a bad idea! For instance, the then NLC boss and current governor of Edo, Adams Oshiomhole, even went as far as threatening physical violence against those who had the temerity to publicly challenge the Obasanjo/PDP electoral heist of 2003.

Such brazen abdication on the part of soi-disant pro-democracy militants has in no small measure helped embolden the gandsterism by the hedonists and parasites operating under the canopy of the anti-social outfit called the PDP.

2011 will not be different from 2003 and 2007 as long as the PDP continues to be comforted by the troubling inconsistencies of those who have opted for histrionics and duplicity (instead of proactive and purposeful measures ) which have tended to find ventilation at the altar of a dizzying and dubious rhetorical flourish.

P.S. For a more detailed analysis of what I believe the pro-democracy community can do in order to get rid of the PDP yoke and thus help the establishment of a truly democratic structure in Nigeria, please read Aonduna Tondu's seminal article entitled "Ekwueme: The Abdication of Nigeria's Democrats". The commentary in question can be accessed on this website.
Re: My Prophecy For 2011
Tony Ishiekwene posted on 08-12-2009, 12:25:14 PM
The writer is right in his rvelation of what will happen in 2011. Not that it will be significantly different from what happened in 2007. The same announcent was done using Prof Iwu. Neither Umaru Yar'Adua nor the 26 PDP state governors, including Saraki, Sullivan Chime, Uduaghan, Alao Akala, Gbenga Daniel, Timipri Silva, Ameachi (or the impostor whose selection in Rivers was cancelled by the Supreme court!). Non of them won any election.

It was all selection by PDP who pretend and tell you they are the largest party in Africa, but woefully scared by the thoughts of a free and fair election, even in the smallest ward in Nigeria. Yes so many people run there because of the gravy train- Those carpetbaggers "leaving" their parties for the PDP are only going there because of greed and survival. The PDP controls all the machinery of election rigging and "money making" in a society where earling a living through other means have been made very difficult.

Yes perhaps the difference between 2007 and 2011 may be the better option of saving us from budgeting billions of Naira for elections that will never hold. The ballot papers for 2007 presidential election which produce Yar'Adua are still in the bins of South Africa, yet a president was announced without the votes. What a country!
Re: My Prophecy For 2011
VOR posted on 08-13-2009, 23:13:55 PM
Your prediction though scary may turn out true if Nigerians continue their siddon look attitude.

I weep for the country and coming generations!
Re: My Prophecy For 2011
Dapxin [RIP] posted on 08-14-2009, 00:51:56 AM
how can you predict a future, so already painted out in colors everyone sees ?

Okiro . sorry Onovo is already at dem Mark's House, asking for the laws to be changed so he could shoot at election boots........what more proof are we looking for.

2011? we are just basically doomed.
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