Consider this scenario, the Northern Emirs feeling short-changed by the inferior number of Muslims nominated for the “National political reforms conference“ call for a jihad. The jihad starts in earnest in  Northern cities, 20, 000 people are slaughtered within one week, jihad spreads to the South in the form of reprisals against Northerners. Northern  Muslims in the Armed forces join jihad, disobeying orders from senior Southern officers, killings and assassinations spreads in the barracks, Southern officers and other ranks based in the North flee to the South, Northern officers and ranks located in the South flee to the North. The president and commander in chief of the Armed forces loses control and goes into hiding, number of dead increases to 100 000.

Southern chiefs, traditional rulers, military officers, and politicians holds emergency meetings, declares secession on a pre- 1914 arrangement to be known as "Union of Southern Nigeria". New nation  to be on an interim basis, pending the convocation of a sovereign national conference, in which the Southern nationalities are to choose, if and how they want to co-exist in the Union. The middle belt's traditional rulers, chiefs, military  officers, and politicians holds emergency  meetings, also declares secession, but leaves open the possibility of joining the South. Western leaders backs Southern Nigeria, against what they saw as a fundamentalist and Al-Qaeda infested North. The core North landlocked and lacking funds is defeated. Nigeria is effectively dismembered. This scenario may seem somewhat extreme, but like it or not, it remains one of the most likely possibilities through which Nigeria could break up. As we search for an equitable, humane, and just Nigeria, permit  me to focus on the North, in this wholesome exercise.

The irony of Nigeria  is that the Core North, which is in the forefront of the campaign for the continued existence of a united Nigeria, are  ironically the same people that are carrying out policies and programmes, individually and collectively that are most likely to trigger the disintegration of Nigeria. It increasingly seems that the North wants Nigeria, but only on it's own terms and advantages. Let’s examine  the  facts. Since the independence of Nigeria, the North has monopolised leadership and until  recently refused the entrance of a non-Northerner to the throne. The North has consistently opposed the idea of an unfettered  sovereign national conference, that may put to rest all the issues that militate against our polygamous marriage of many ethnics. Having  at  last accepted a compromised  National political reforms conference initiated by the recalcitrant president Olusegun Obasanjo administration, they have gone ahead to oppose every  progressive proposal put forward in the conference, namely rotational presidency, constitutional  recognition of the six geo-political  zones, resource control, 6  year single term for elected presidents, banning of ex-military officers, electronic voting amongst others. The idea of rotational presidency was mooted  to give every section of Nigeria a sense of belonging, it  is  noteworthy  that  the late General  Sanni  Abacha's  1995 draft constitution had proposed 5 year single term for elected presidents, and  zoning of the presidency among the six  zones,  together with a 30 year transition to true nationhood, by  which time all the zones would have produced the president.

The idea was also to end  the acrimony, assassinations, and  rigging  that goes with re-election of incumbents in Nigeria. Lofty  as this ideas are, not  too surprisingly the North has opposed it in the  reforms jaw-jaw, their argument is, "why now that it is the  turn of the North to produce the next president"?. Shouldn’t the peace and unity of Nigeria  be the overriding interest of  all  well  meaning Nigerians?  In opposing  the six zones,  the North demonstrated a naked  desire to maintain  the lopsided status quo, in which there is neither equity, nor  justice. In opposing  the  proposed  ban on  former military dictators seeking the presidency, the  North once again argued  that  most of the officers affected are from the North, what this means in effect is that it doesn’t matter if Nigeria is going to be better for it, insofar as the majority of officers affected are Northerners it mustn’t happen.

Arguably resource control has been the most contentious issue, and has attracted the most opprobrium from the North. The North is no doubt bent on frustrating any move  to  adopt resource control as a policy measure, largely because of easy-lazy money coming from crude oil sales, even though it has become widely acknowledged  that our self imposed poverty is as a result of over dependence on crude oil. Electronic voting system widely used in India, and whose proposal was to curtail the rigging of elections, was  also opposed by the North, which suggests in clear terms that the North benefits, or plans to benefit from the rigging of elections. In conclusion, it is noteworthy that the National political reforms conference was initiated to address most or all of the issues militating against the unity of our stillborn  nation.

 Most of the proposals highlighted above has been widely identified and acknowledged as the bane of conflicts in this vastly unjust nation, which if not addressed threatens to break-up the already fragile nation. One now wonders why the North is bent on maintaining a highly lopsided, and potentially explosive status quo. if their mission for coming to the reforms conference is to be uncompromising and to steadfastly seek to maintain the status quo, they should have stayed away. It is contrary to the reasons, ideologies, and purpose for which the talk shop was initiated. The talk shop was clearly initiated to re-arrange, restructure, and  reconstruct, a mortally fragile Nigeria, and of course none of these can be achieved with ought compromise.

Witness the North's opposition to the national identity cards, and their insistence that the upcoming national population  census should be with ought ethnicity and religion. The vastly corrupt, unjust and dysfunctional Nigerian wasteland we have today is largely the making of the North. To want to maintain this painfully unjust system is indirectly a call for Nigeria's break-up. With ought, equity, justice and fairplay, Nigeria cannot be sustained. It may take some time but crash it must. The scenario drawn up in the beginning of this article, and others like it are increasingly possible, except Nigerians, and  the North in particular learn to compromise.I dare say  Nigeria's  break-up, is on the doorsteps of the North.


Chinedu  Nwobu
Dundalk  county Louth
Republic  of Ireland

Robot  Villager

# 1 The irony of Nigeria is that the Core North, which is in the forefront of the campaign for the continued existence of a united Nigeria, are ironically the same people that are carrying out policies and programmes, individually and collectively that are most likely to trigger the disinteg...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 11.12.2005 18:48

emj  Villager

# 2 The nigeria we have has to be taken from the hands that will not allow it to prosper. It is cowardly to let go of what u own just because of some dry spots. It is those who cannot adjust that have problem, and of course will have to flee with their tail between their legs if they still have any. Posted by emj| 11.12.2005 19:29

Unregistered

# 3 The North has already ate their cake and had it. Nigeria stands on a tripod of North, East and West. When it comes to rotating the Presidency, here comes the parasitic North claiming it must be between North and South. If the oil dries tomorrow, the North will abandon the rest of Nigeria. Posted by Unregistered| 11.12.2005 21:05

Unregistered

# 4 This is ignorant racism parading as informed commentary. In one breadth you talk about a north as if it were monolithic, in the next you talk about a core north all without definition. You talk about a tripodal Nigeria of north, east and west but go ahead to talk about a south. So which one is core north or core west or core east? You talk about western and eastern axis as if there is homogenuity there. Is the niger delta and midwest part of your east or west? Do they all speak with one voice? The agreement on power shift was made in 1998 and it is no use arguing about the merits or demerits of it now when one side has had their own share of the bargain. It is dishonourable to enter into an agreement and start to revise it after one side has had the benefit. This more than anything else will cause disintegration. When you wanted power shift you were happy to agree to anything. Now it is time to hand it back you are there dissembling. Why isn't anyone suprised at the disreputable behaviour emanating from a part of the country? Posted by Unregistered| 11.12.2005 21:35

Mark Lar  Villager

# 5 It is quite a shame and disgraceful that the last writer has chosen to take that point of view. From all indications, he seems one of the handful that will benefit in a return to the status quo i.e. the return of power to the Caliphate. What he does not seem to understand is that the Middlebelt is no longer their "go fetch erand boys"; and that we have now joined all the progressives of this great country. That we will no longer be used in their ruination of this great nation. 2007 is just around the corner, sit tight and wait for us to hand back power to your Umaru Dikkos of this world and the "Born to Rule" mob. Ga filli, ga doki, mallam. Posted by Mark Lar| 12.12.2005 07:46

Mark Lar  Villager

# 6 North would keep power indefinitely – Abdullahi By John Adi Reporter, Kaduna The Former Presidential Adviser on Food and Security, Professor Ango Abdullahi, has said that the North would keep power indefinitely if the one-man, one-vote rule is applied strictly to the electoral process. He said this is because the North has all the political advantages both in terms of numbers, which he described as the backbone of politics, and the politicians whose political drive is insurmountable. Posted by Mark Lar| 12.12.2005 14:02

Unregistered

# 7 The North is only numerically superior because in all census counts they include goats, donkeys and cows. Posted by Unregistered| 12.12.2005 14:40

Unregistered

# 8 Which middle belt does Mark Lar speak for? The man speaks for himself. What progressives is he joining up with and where are they? In moribund PRONACO or where? If he is indeed a progressive, why does he support subterfuge? Why support dishonourable behaviour? If Nigerian political leaders abide by agreements they have freely entered into, Nigeria will be the better for it. In case Mark Lar has not noticed, the northern governor's, northern reps and northern senators and northern speakers fora are constituted by representatives of the 19 northern states. Like Mark Lar, Prof. Ango Abdullahi is entitled to his views but he speaks for himself alone being unelected and without the means to actualise his claims. The comment about Umaru Dikko is disingenious. Is he the only one who made money during Shagari's time? What about Akinloye and Akinjide to name a few? Did they not make money? What about Abiola? Was he not compensated financially for his disappointment? No one is born to rule Nigeria and only an ignoramus will make such a claim. This is a serious platform for debate. Let us not discredit it the way our country has been debased by spurious and uninformed comment. If there is stability in Nigeria we all benefit so why personalise issues? Silence of course is the best answer for the other commentator who has taken leave of his senses and is consumed with thoughts of his christmas goat and cow meat. Ewu goats, donkeys and cows. Posted by Unregistered| 12.12.2005 15:23

ATTAH

# 9 Oga unregistered Northerner, i am from the middle belt and i know that most middle belters dont want to have anything to do with the barbaric and fraudulent caliphate North.Dont be deceived by the middle belt Governors who are clearly playing politics.Have you forgotten that Major Gideon Orkar who attempted to kick the caliphate North out of Nigeria is a middle belter? there are many more Gideon Orkars waiting in the wings.Sooner or later you guys will be thrown out of a progressive Nigeria,because Nigeria can never know progress with the caliphate North. Posted by ATTAH| 12.12.2005 17:43

Palamedes  Villager

# 10 The North has opposed the idea of … national conference; the north opposes the six zones; the north opposes the ban on former military dictators; the north opposes resource control; the north’s opposition to the national identity cards,. I detest this unwarranted block accusation. It is cowardice and tactically wrong: to depict all northerners as reactionary when you should be taking the arguments to the persons who need persuading. Even the Israelis and Palestinians were able to reach agreement on issues, seemingly impossible. Nigeria cannot be sustained. It may take some time but crash it must. Typical Nigeria style of argument: Nigerians always want to be right, and given our impatience and crude or lack or persuasive skills, we resort to crude tactics. We have seen examples of the Nigerian style of argument again and again on this website, that is to say: name calling, boastfulness, threats of succession and war, muddled thinking, and sometimes plain gibberish . Of course, there are exceptions but we are in the minority. You win an argument by persuasion and not by threat of violence. On the subject of zoning, I am totally against it, and it is nauseating to see some Nigerians on AIT referring to themselves as “Citizens of the South-South” What a load of rubbish. The idea of rotational presidency was mooted to give every section of Nigeria a sense of belonging, This is all about sharing chop chop, isn’t . Does it matter where the president comes from as long as he or she is a Nigerian and is up to the job? Would you recommend rotating administration in our hospitals, armed forces, business organizations, universities and even our national team? Of course not; why then do we need rotational presidency if what we seek is an efficient and effective administration. It seems we also suffer from amnesia: we started with 3 regions and then 12 states and then glorified villages turned into states. Is zoning not another name for regions? Further, why do we need another layer (i.e. zone) of government? We have three layers of governments and that should be final. Enough of resource consumption and lets talk about wealth creation . One now wonders why the North is bent on maintaining a highly lopsided, and potentially explosive status quo. . One wonders why you keep portraying all northerners as reactionary. They are not one monolithic group but fellow Nigerians with families, friends, sensitivity, and desire to improve their lives – just like you. Yeah go on and call me names as usual - as if I am care. Posted by Palamedes| 12.12.2005 19:43

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