23 Jun 2009 |
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Colonisation 2.0: Enter the Dragon Victor Adigun Two South African banks: FirstRand and Nedbank, are eyeing Nigeria’s financial sector. Opportunities, to enter the erstwhile turf of European and American banks, are rife. Due to the global economic rout, these western banks had to rapidly reverse to restore confidence to their restive home markets. To boot, Nigeria’s homemade crisis: margin loans collateralised with shares to buy more shares, has savaged the Nigerian stock market. The share price of Nigerian banks are now at a delectable low – merging with or acquiring a Nigerian bank never looked so good. Under the strain of impaired loans it will be foolhardy for some banks not to seek a White Knight. Meanwhile, China’s state and privately owned companies are trawling Africa, on the prowl for assets. SINOPEC, a state-owned Chinese oil group, has shown interest in Addax, Nigeria’s largest independent oil producer. Mr Jiang Jianqing, chairman Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC is the world’s largest bank) arrived in Nigeria on 16th June. Within two days he’s been made an offer he can’t refuse. On June 18th, Alhaji Tanimu Yakubu, chief economic adviser to President Yar’Adua, has asked ICBC to practically fund Nigeria’s $500 million sovereign bond. With friends like these who needs the US or EU? Thus, President Obama won’t be missed when he skips over Nigeria to visit Ghana next month. Not to worry, Luis Zapatero, Spain’s Prime Minister, billed to visit Nigeria is an able, though some Nigerians will say second rate, substitute. The EU, as a group or individual countries, doesn’t want to be left out. They’re signing MoUs (not the sort the Governors Forum claim to have signed with Harvard) on energy, trade etc. At this pace one would think MoUs were getting out of fashion. Back in Abuja, ICBC was lured by “an excellent opportunity to endear itself to Nigeria as it sought opportunities in Africa”. The government is dangling juicy carrots at China. The possibility of a “sovereign guarantee for any finance that might be required by Chinese companies” That is, Chinese companies need not participate in any open and competitive bid. Just mention the contract and it’s yours. In economics that is known as signalling, desperation in popular parlance. Therefore China need not bother with business plans, due diligence and environmental impact assessments; the economic adviser did that already, and offered it all on a platter of gold at that. It seems the Nigeria has forgotten, and forgiven, China for reneging on the soft loan earlier promised to fund Nigeria’s rails. Once the hail storm of global recession began, the Chinese asked Nigeria to get the loan at a commercial rate (from a Chinese bank of course). Meanwhile China walked away with a pocket full of dollars for not keeping to the contract terms. Never mind, it was an agreement entered by the previous administration. The day before, government announced that it will spend $76.2 million on 25 diesel locomotives to revive the defunct railway sector. According to Alhaji Ibrahim Bio, the minister for transportation (why wasn’t invited to the meeting with the chairman of ICBC?) previous attempts to perk up our rail system failed. “The Chinese ones bought by the administration of Gen Sani Abacha were 50, none of them today is on our rail track they are all bad”. If a sovereign guarantee to the Chinese was the aperitif, 35,000 hectares of arable land and strategic raw materials were the main course – Nigeria’s contribution to guarantee China’s energy and food security. “Due to the current global financial crisis” ICBC must not resist “an excellent opportunity to replace them” ie, splurge some capital by way of credit lines to Nigerian banks as western banks have all but shut their pumps. To buttress the point ICBC was informed of several projects that Chinese entities alongside Nigerian counterparts “can collaborate on in meeting the strategic needs of the country in infrastructure”. “Land Grabbing” by Foreign Investors in Developing Countries Risks and Opportunities by IFR A fine exchange: let’s swap our strategic needs for “strategic raw materials” which China needs. Irrespective of the alarm raised by the Federal Executive Council (FEC) on June 17th “that Nigeria might not be able to meet its food needs in the event of an emergency”. Alhaji Yakubu, as the President’s ears and eyes on economic matters, cannot be oblivious of this. Just in case, here’s a reminder: 70% of Nigerians are engaged in agriculture, mostly small-scale subsistence farming; for every one million Nigerians there are 1,295km of roads and 85% of them are unpaved and there are 23km of railroads for every one million Nigerians. These figures are abysmal relative to the average for low-income countries. Surely for $500 million, the sacrifice is worth it. Besides, inflation dropped to 13% this month and giving farmlands to China won’t disrupt efforts to tame inflation. (While the reform of Land Use Act sits pretty at the National Assembly, the Chinese, not Nigerians, get the right of first refusal over Nigerian assets). More so the crops planted on these farms will neither end up in Nigerian markets nor the tables of Nigerian families. Then again, there’s due process, as the President’s man on economic matters we can assume the deal is already signed, sealed and delivered. All this smacks of neo-colonialism: raw materials for cash. We needn’t ask Mr. Jianqing how Nigeria can foster alliances in order to replicate China’s economic miracle. Growing at 10% for ten years is beyond Nigeria. Meanwhile, South Africa and Ghana are consulting Lagos State on how to replicate the BRT system in their respective countries. China, eager to etch its footprints on the globe, recently joined its Bric (Brazil, Russia, India and China) peers for a meeting in Yekaterinburg, Russia. Shanghai, its business capital, has been mandated to become a global financial hub by 2020. The city is undergoing a construction bout in preparation for Expo 2010, “an event set to rival the 19th century fairs in London, Paris and Chicago”. Furthermore, foreign firms do business in China on China’s terms. Things are done at China’s pace – excruciatingly slow to foreign investors, yet they remain. No one dictates what China’s rate of modernisation should be; after all it’s the world’s largest country and the third largest economy with a better promise of growth post-global downturn. China has thus adopted a sagely cautious approach, particularly after developed economies plunged into recession, to doing business. It lumbers forward, groping not leaping, but never backwards. Nigerians can’t be deceived. Claims that our country is blessed with natural resources don’t mean they are up for plundering by the least bidder. Neither will we accept that we haven’t any inkling about what to with these resources. Thank God for Gov. Fashola and his team. Every geographic inch, nook and cranny of Lagos is being captured digitally. This will make the process of getting certificates of occupancy easier and improve the planning and construction of physical infrastructure, among other things. Lest we forget, Lagos is funding its mega-city project from locally sourced funds: taxes. The bonds raised earlier this year, were over-subscribed – unless proven otherwise, no Chinese bank bought these bonds (except of course Stanbic IBTC which ICBC has stakes in). Julius Berger, mobilised by part of the proceeds of the Lagos State bond offer, has begun doubling the Badagry-Cotonou expressway. African Finance Corporation (AFC) and Main One, an indigenous company, saw, snapped up and signed a $240 million locally funded deal. Main One plans to connect the whole of West Africa via fibre optic cables. Now that’s ingenious. Using what you have: geogra
phy, to get what you want: a cash-spewing, job-generating venture. Badagry, in a couple of years, will be throbbing with economic vitality. Investments in IT, cross-border trade and tourism will become overly attractive. Economic gains from Nigeria’s colonial and slave trade history will benefit local and foreign tou rists. Kindly note that in above-mentioned Lagos State investments, no Chinese company has been mentioned and the amount invested makes $500 million look paltry. So if the best Nigeria’s economic adviser can do is sell our asset
s for a piffling, we insist that he resign and for posterity sake please do not take up a teaching position – economics already has a bad name. Victor Adigun, a concerned Nigerian
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