Written by Ola Onikoyi jr, London, Uk.

‘‘There is no doubt; Nigeria is currently at the brink of economic collapse, in a state of political throes, a sizzling disaster mode and a continuous downward spiral, as it disintegrates from the global economy and the citizens grief from severe hardship , we will never forget one of the greatest failures of leadership in the 21^st century.’’ Ola Onikoyi Jr.

In this globalized 21^st century, nations, countries, regions and economies around the world are becoming inextricably interconnected, unionised and aligned by forging transatlantic partnerships, mutual-cooperation and international synergies based on performance, deliverables and real inputs of each partners.

This has been further triggered by various forces like, population growth which will see the present global population of 6.5 billion people soar to over 8.5 billion in 25 years, advancement in technology, which is shrinking the world of commerce, promoting globalisation and synchronising markets, rapid depletion of essential resources which is making important commodities hard to get for some regions of the world, climate change, which is distorting growing seasons and reducing production yields, And heightened environmental uncertainty amongst many, which requires governments, companies, institutions, states and in-fact counties to increasingly have a strategic plan and build long term goals and partnerships to confront the asymmetric problems of our time which cannot be singularly addressed.

In the advanced economies and emerging markets of Europe, Asia and America, Oil, Gas, Agriculture, and Mining are the most intrinsic enablers of their functioning economies, The jugular of their industrial puissance and the basis of all their economic prosperity, fortunately, the major proportion of those oil and gas, Gold and diamonds, pearl and ornament’s, almond and nuts, hides and skin including plants and cures are residual in Africa and even more specifically now Nigeria.

But even most alarming sadly to a remarkable depth, apart our leader’s incompetence to provide the most basic needs of life through quality governance,--- is the continuous deterioration and growing disaster led status of the Nigerian economy which is now rapidly making it an irrelevant state in the comity of nations around the world.

Even before the advent of the 2009 global economic crisis on whose existence our leaders have attributed their arrant underperformance, inept and gross incompetence, Nigeria have been feeling a pinch in its shoes through various ways.

(1) Though oil production which fell steeply in 2008, from 2.4 million barrels per day to less than 1 million barrels due to disruption in the Niger Delta, causing Nigeria to loose over $ 126 million per day=over $3 billion per month, at the same period emerging economies like china, Germany, USA and Europe imported the highest amount ever recorded in history of palm oil and cassava mainly as feedstock’s for production of alternative sources of fuel like ethanol and bio diesel to ease the effects of the high oil prices, but Nigeria as the no 1 producer of cassava with 36 million tons produced per year never performed any better in the exports of cassava to the international market or enjoyed any increase in the sale palm oil.

The United States of America who imports over half of Nigeria’s oil have also launched a proactive drive to diversify its oil consumption away from fossil fuel of Nigeria to cleaner, greener and alternative sources of energy like hydrogen fuels and bio-fuels and by 2020, despite its growing demand for energy, the US determines to reduce its fuel import by over half, this will have a tremendous impact on Nigeria who depends fully on trade receipts from oil exports. At the same time, it has been proven that Nigeria’s proven oil reserve of 35 billion barrels is dwindling and will finish in 35-40 years, (You do the math- if we have 35 billion barrels and we export 2.4 million barrels each day, then 2.4 million barrels x 360 days in one year= 864 million barrels per year x 40 years = 34.5 billion barrels, Chikena)

(2) Cocoa exports have also continued to nosedive in the past years as a result of more intensified competition from the progressive states of Ghana and Ivory Coast, who produce better quality, offer competitive prices and process world standard cocoa compared to Nigeria’s low quality cocoa. As at 2006, Nigeria occupied the position of the 4^th largest producer and exporter of cocoa in the world. From a 1^st position in the 1980’s, But since 2009, the position has dropped to the sixth largest, a position that still may not be sustained.

(3) Although, One of the major effects of the global economic crisis on many economies around the world have been more evident in the decline of both capital and stock market, but only very few economies around the have felt a pinch of decline in their capital market as a result of the global economic crisis before September 2009. In Nigeria the Nigerian stock index (NSE) began to see a decline in its over 45 year history as a result partly although because of the global financial crisis but most reasons were due to economic problems such as regulatory inconsistencies, growing political risks, declining state of security and investors falling confidence amongst other.

(4) Nigeria’s oversea’s remittance flow which is second to oil receipts have also began to decline as a result of return migration of Nigerian’s abroad to their country, largely because of the increasingly tight work place regime in Europe and America and a thriving banking sector back-home serving as a cynosure of attraction to diasporas.

The fact and truth of the Nigerian matter is that, it has reached its peak performance in 2008 led by the strong earning from oil, past Anti corruption drive and tough financial reforms. Now growth cannot be sustained, because revenues are not consistent, leadership is nothing to write home about, economic management is handled immaturely, exports cannot be maintained, stock market is declining, oil price is falling, security is deteriorating, and poverty is becoming rife while life is becoming increasingly difficult by day.

Since 2006 through mid 2008, the Nigerian economy have recorded an improved  growth of about 6-6.5%, but in 2009, The Afdb barely projects a growth of 4% for 2009, while a gloomy future is projected because of declining oil exports and oil price including a continuous decline in investment inflow.

Unfortunately, for an economy with a growth rate of 6.5% having over 70% of its population impoverished, growth of 4% will surely promote heightened economic disaster, it will be a time when more intense poverty, chaos, anarchy, hunger, increased crime wave and political unrest will thrive. Sadly, the outcome may provoke yet another attempt at coup d’tat possibly by young military officers. A take over that could destabilize the country, dissipate past democratic efforts and cause open warfare and political crisis.

This could result in a failed Nigerian state as predicted by the US National Intelligence Council in 2005, who predicts that Nigeria may become "outright collapse as a nation-state within the next 15 years. It is predicted that if Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the West African region. ‘‘If millions were to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the surrounding countries, up to and including Ghana would be destabilised. Further, a failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years - if ever - and not without massive international assistance.”

As nation states around the world gradually becomes interconnected enjoying the growing forces of globalisation, Nigeria is also enjoying the other-side of globalisation as the headquarter of corruption, the great power house of chaos, the world engine of poverty and the great place of sufferness,  As it gradually becomes unable to compete with smaller African states, it is gradually becoming disintegrated, as it disintegrates; its importance is increasingly becoming irrelevant to other nations, oil is becoming a cause, the supply chain of agriculture cannot be complete, because there is no infrastructure to enable logistics that facilitates excellence, corruption is rife, hunger, poverty, disease and so on are the order of the day, common needs of life, water, food, power and employment are denied.

On that day of reckoning, God forbid, when the military come back to the reigns of power, we will see the shame of leadership, the incompetence management, the mediocrity of yarad’uaism, God forbid, on that day, I will cry and remember the fight of our fore-fathers who have fought for peace, freedom and a free Nigerian state.

Robot  # 1 | 13.06.2009 11:16

Written by Ola Onikoyi jr, London, Uk. ‘‘There is no doubt; Nigeria is currently at the brink of economic collapse, in a state of political throes, a sizzling disaster mode and a continuous downward spiral, as it disintegrates from the global economy and the citizens grief from severe hardship , we will never forget one of the greatest failures of leadership in the 21stcentury.’’ Ola Onikoyi Jr. In this globalized 21st century, nations, countries, regions and economies around the world are becoming inextricably interconnected, unionised and aligned by forging transatlantic partnerships, mutual-cooperation and international synergies based on performance, deliverables and real inputs of each partners. This has been further triggered by various forces like, population growth which will see the present global population of 6.5 billion people soar to over 8.5 billion in 25 years, advancement in technology, which is shr...Read the full article.