A lot has being philosophized in the run-up to the elections, on what shape Nigeria may take in the post-election era. The crystal ball was rolled over and over again and many commentators agreed on just one point: The future is not rosy. But the speed, at which this obvious drift and free fall down the bottomless pit and the sheer imagination of how intensive this may be unleashed, is beginning to scare the hell out of even the most dire of pessimists. It is one thing to foresee. It is wholly another to be faced with the reality. Where is Nigeria heading and where are all the redeemers gone?

Irrespective of attacks and abuses that were mutually exchanged by observers and commentators in the badly charged atmosphere ahead of April 14^th 2007, in which polarization was not only accepted as the norm, but also in which many paid political activists and party loyalists intermingled with authentic observers, thus rendering it difficult to differentiate the real from the fake, tensions now seem to by dying down slowly. A new sense of calm seems to be dawning. But true to it, it doesn’t take long to see beyond the façade. It strongly feels like the calm before the storm.

At center stage are just two personalities, who fought their battle in the public arena of private interest, in which the interest of the nation has been fully relegated to the background.

As I have consistently opined and will continue to say, the Presidency of General Olusegun Obasanjo has done Nigeria enormous credit in revamping the financial and economic stature of the country. General Olusegun Obasanjo has led a government with a very clear idea on how to solve the problems of the country but lacked the forceful competence to see through with the implementation of the simplest formula. A team of competent technocrats confronted the most difficult problems nations could ever have in these modern days of cold capitalist interest lost in globalization and mastered them with confidence and enviable skills.

What will now destroy President Obasanjo’s legacy of these positive technocratic achievements is not his failure to fix social infrastructure or improve the daily life of the common man as many may think. Definitely no! Even though these failures should not be trivialized because they should have been the easiest problems to solve, it should also be highlighted that they form the cornerstone of the irrelevance of party political programs in Nigeria today. Even the most unimaginative of party founders these days requires just one political program: “Electricity, Water and Roads”.

The President’s nemesis has a name: Abubakar Atiku. Either by virtue of being surrounded by incompetent advisers or sheer miscalculation, the entire dispute with the rebellious Vice President has now unleashed a chain of deadly reactions on the nation that neither of the two men will stand to gain from.

The inadequacy of the constitution was first unearthed through the rebellion of the Vice President. A novelty in universal suffrage that no country has ever witnessed.

Courts took to obvious partisan politics and guidance by public sentiments in passing judgments and the helpless President seeing the integrity of his power being audaciously decimated obviously rested his final hopes on bringing his party back to power in a do-or-die fashion.

So far so good! When do-or-die however, begins to translate into wanton killings in the name of votes, the question will become inevitable, whose interest is being served in a game of collective lies. Soldiers were deployed in hotspots ahead of gubernatorial elections. Yet ballot boxes were robbed and apparently replaced. People were killed and maimed to secure the victory of private individuals. Faced with the reality that election rigging and attempts at same are all attendant characters of Nigerianism in electoral charades, no one will be fooled into believing that they are confined to the ruling party alone.

Unfortunately however, the government of the day bears ultimate responsibility for security and safety in elections. The pertinent question must be addressed, where soldiers were deployed, how ballot boxes could be stolen with impunity and nothing is being done till the present moment, to launch investigations to address the situation. On the contrary, results are being declared in constituencies, where crimes characterized electioneering. What is all this game about and where are we heading?

As if Nigerians have not been sufficiently subjected to the burden and pains of routine crime wave in everyday life, special election-time-crime seems to be turning into another casual way of life as well!

Without wishing to question the integrity of the ruling party and its followership, I am nonetheless prone to airing my unease at the strength of the party’s victory in so many states fully against the trend of outright public hatred of the ruling party. How on earth, can I be assured that victory in Adedibu’s Oyo state was free and fair?

Victory that has become an inevitable do-or-die outcome for the ruling party in the desperate bid to checkmate a self-centered Vice President that is hell bent on fostering his personal interests in the unmistakable spirit of a novice to the prerequisites of a successful democratic practice.

Will someone summon courage and ask Atiku Abubakar where he will finally stand if he ends up winning all the court battles of this world and the nation ends up in perils.

Agreed that there was no way the ball could have been stopped by Atiku once it was set rolling, the Vice President should bear in mind that the successes he has achieved so far have been the exposure of the inadequacies of our constitution. Democracy can never grow in Nigeria until the removal of a rebellious Vice President is finally addressed in the Nigerian Constitution without decimating the President’s powers no matter who that President is. Democracy will definitely have a problem growing if an Independent National Electoral Commission – fully independent of the publicly hated General Obasanjo and Prof. Iwu – is not allowed the power to disqualify candidates without resort to the judiciary. Democracy can never grow in Nigeria as long as disgruntled party members are not granted the constitutional rights to contest as independents.

Many of these facts are the collateral aftermath of Atiku’s battle with the President. The largely advanced argument that Atiku was oppressed and merely fought for his right cannot but be dismissed with contempt. A member of any government that served for seven years, who comes to the ultimate realization that he does not belong in the team amid malicious marginalization, has no choice in every democracy that I know, but to quit the administration.

Let us forget for once that unverified claims contend that Atiku was to represent specific interests in a remote-controlled Obasanjo’s Presidency. Let us forget the unverified claims of horse-trading that was said to have brought Obasanjo to power through the help of General Babaginda and Atiku with all the clandestine agreements reached and Atiku’s hopes for a different role than the one he finally got. In the course of grieves and disappointments, Atiku as the clean crusader did not quit the regime to fight the corruption and disrespect for the rule of law which he had helped nurture over seven years. No. His desire to have it both ways by remaining Vice President and belonging to another party underscores the urgency of a constitutional amendment.

Now the Supreme Court has not so surprisingly ruled to strip the Independent National Electoral Commission of its right to disqualify unqualified candidates just a few days to the Presidential elections. Candidates cheated out of election victory are understandably, fueling unrest. Presidential candidates are seeking a viable strategy to wrest power from the ruling party, which they will apparently be unable to outdo in election rigging. The President’s camp will be watching quietly with strategy plans behind closed doors. Strategy that will definitely not seek to advance lovemaking with opposition candidates.

The writing on the wall is clear. If General Buhari is hell bent on becoming President like Abubakar Atiku at all cost, the opposition will never find a consensus candidate and that will spell their ultimate destruction. This cannot be disguised by even an overt call for the postponement of the Presidential elections in the aftermath of their own deadlocked negotiations. The expected rejection of this call by the ruling party will not but further exacerbate an already tense situation. Should the opposition however, choose to unleash its own reactionary potential in frustration, the answer will be bloodshed within the next few days after April 21^st, 2007.

Many Nigerians are however basking in the illusion that Nigeria has passed the stage of a military coup d’etat.

Agreed that what we badly need today is not a coup d’etat but a fundamental revolution to cleanse the system per se, the question persists however “who will lead the way?” Revolutions are borne of spontaneity in the midst of miniature organizations and petty ringleaders. While petty ringleaders these days tend to focus more on what they can reap off the political establishments on the short-run to support their livelihood, the overriding interest of the nation is pushed down the priority scale.

If the President does not eventually get fed up with the situation at one point in time and give the military the green light to intervene, the sleeky and unpredictable Babanginda effect may take the day. Alternatively, a junior revolution may become the impending risk in the spirit of Jerry Rawlings.

The only credible alternative that however sounds far more realistic in the face of current developments may be a dramatic resolution of the Atiku problem either through his ultimate arrest with massive unrest in its aftermath or the voluntary and timely exit of Atiku from the scene thus laying the groundwork for a new start. If tensions finally calm down with a great deal of foreign intervention, working out a credible and face-saving formula for Atiku and Obasanjo, a good government over four years with good roads, power and water supply, may wipe off all these upheavals from public memory. But the scars will remain and mopping-up operation on the constitution may begin in earnest. I fear a scenario where many judges will be sacrificed on the long run to match the ideology of the prevailing party. Quietly and away from the limelight. The name may be honorable retirement.

Democracy will ultimately grow if this realistic scenario prevails. This does not mean however, that democracy will not grow in the event of a disciplined military intervention.

Such an intervention that may spell a welcome intermezzo from the current confusion and threat of Armageddon may help the reorganization of the democratic process if kept short with a great deal of political discipline.

Robot  Villager

# 1 A lot has being philosophized in the run-up to the elections, on what shape Nigeria may take in t...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 18.04.2007 04:54

ithinkbetter  Villager

# 2 This does not mean however, that democracy will not grow in the event of a disciplined military intervention. frisky: the quote na him spoil your wonderful thoughts...abeg tell us how we go execute the quote...:confused1:confused1:confused1 Posted by ithinkbetter| 18.04.2007 07:20

Frisky Larr  Villager

# 3 Many of us in the NVS are basking on the illusion that a military coup will definitely throw us back. I disagree with that. A good military coup may help Nigeria a great deal. We have only been too unfortunate to have had bad soldier rulers in the past. I will not advocate and am not advocating a coup but the reality right now has taken us close to one. What I did was merely looking reality in the eyes! I do not know if any coup can take us farther back than we presently are. Posted by Frisky Larr| 18.04.2007 08:50

omo naija  Villager

# 4 =Frisky Larr;169393>Many of us in the NVS are basking on the illusion that a military coup will definitely throw us back. I disagree with that. A good military coup may help Nigeria a great deal. We have only been too unfortunate to have had bad soldier rulers in the past. I will not advocate and am not advocating a coup but the reality right now has taken us close to one. What I did was merely looking reality in the eyes! I do not know if any coup can take us farther back than we presently are. You don start again, you mean forty years of corrupt dictatorial military rule is not enough for you. God forbid; we will never be subjected to military rule again, that era has passed. Maybe you you were not in Nigeria during those era, Sanni Abacha has put paid to any talk of military rule, he show us how not to be a military ruler. While i agree with some of the points you raised in your article; you still don't get it, common sense and law cannot be equated, yes the law sometimes is an ass, but is the law, and any society without it will be imperil. What happens between the president and Atiku is a lesson, which we Nigerians should pray it never occur again, and i pray that God should have mercy on us, by not inflicting on us a vindictive and unforgiving person like OBJ. If Atiku was an honest man he would have resign and give OBJ run for his money, but he's as corrupt like our father who hath in Aso Rock, so all of them are afraid of what will happen to them when they are stripped of all immunity, that is why the election is a do or die affair, because they are as dirty as s**t that is why they want to make the country ungovernable for anyone. Mark my word Yar Adua will be president Nigeria will ever hope for, because those that put him there will regret they ever did. THE SILENT ONE ARE ALWAYS THE MOST DANGEROUS, HERE I STAND. MAY GOD HAVE MERCY ON NIGERIA AND AFRICA IN GENERAL, AMEN. Posted by omo naija| 18.04.2007 13:34

Son of the Delta  Villager

# 5 =Frisky Larr;169393>Many of us in the NVS are basking on the illusion that a military coup will definitely throw us back. I disagree with that. A good military coup may help Nigeria a great deal. We have only been too unfortunate to have had bad soldier rulers in the past. I will not advocate and am not advocating a coup but the reality right now has taken us close to one. What I did was merely looking reality in the eyes! I do not know if any coup can take us farther back than we presently are. @ Mr Frisky Larr, On this one you are correct a good coup may do us good.The Brazilian ethanol project that is being praised around the world is a project of a military government.Our problem is the kind of people who plot coups in Nigeria.They can best be described as thugs. Posted by Son of the Delta| 18.04.2007 13:56

Son of the Delta  Villager

# 6 =omo naija;169442>You don start again, you mean forty years of corrupt dictatorial military rule is not enough for you. God forbid; we will never be subjected to military rule again, that era has passed. Maybe you you were not in Nigeria during those era, Sanni Abacha has put paid to any talk of military rule, he show us how not to be a military ruler. While i agree with some of the points you raised in your article; you still don't get it, common sense and law cannot be equated, yes the law sometimes is an ass, but is the law, and any society without it will be imperil. What happens between the president and Atiku is a lesson, which we Nigerians should pray it never occur again, and i pray that God should have mercy on us, by not inflicting on us a vindictive and unforgiving person like OBJ. If Atiku was an honest man he would have resign and give OBJ run for his money, but he's as corrupt like our father who hath in Aso Rock, so all of them are afraid of what will happen to them when they are stripped of all immunity, that is why the election is a do or die affair, because they are as dirty as s**t that is why they want to make the country ungovernable for anyone. Mark my word Yar Adua will be president Nigeria will ever hope for, because those that put him there will regret they ever did. THE SILENT ONE ARE ALWAYS THE MOST DANGEROUS, HERE I STAND. MAY GOD HAVE MERCY ON NIGERIA AND AFRICA IN GENERAL, AMEN. What has the so-called democratic rule offered Nigeria? By the way are we not still being ruled by those who plotted coups against Nigeria? Is Obasanjo better than the likes of Abacha? I will categorically say NO the records are there for anyone to make comparison. In fact on a very serious note General Abacha is far better than General Obasanjo. Posted by Son of the Delta| 18.04.2007 14:00

omo naija  Villager

# 7 Yes Abacha is better than OBJ, but i would rather a faulty democratic arrangement than a government run by a psychopath called Abacha or any other in the name of military rule, at least we know that soonest we will all say goodbye to Babism. you may not treasure your freedom of expression, but i treasured mine, you would never have dreamt of that during Abacha reign of terror, OBJ is worst than Abacha no doubt about that, but please can you tell me how many states Abacha visit during his reign of terror, your guess is as good as mine. Never to military rule again, the worst democratic settings is still better than any military rule, with democracy you improve on your mistakes, we will get there with whoever takes over from OBJ, because we are now wiser thanks to OBJ WURURU. OBJ was able to waxed strong because of the corrupt nature of the Houses of Assembly and Senate, they would have tamed him, their failures does not mean democracy too must be allowed to fail - the senate did shows what they can do, by rejecting the 3rd term, although this has much to do with public revulsion of another four years of OBJ than senate own bravery. Please my fellow villager, because we have been unfortunate in Nigeria to have men of low mentality and intergrity running the show, does not makes the call for return of the military justifiable, its wrong at this point in our history, they will set us further back to stone age. HERE I STAND. GOD BLESS NIGERIA AND AFRICA. Posted by omo naija| 18.04.2007 14:31

ComradeX  Villager

# 8 By bringing the full weight of our military machinery to bear down on Nigerian’s so-called Taleban at this stage, is it just possible that term-elongation is back on the agenda? Against a backdrop, where the upheaval unfolding in Kano is conveniently being couched in terms analogous to the “war on terror” by the western media, is our morally bankrupt commander-in-chief now contemplating the Pakistani/Algerian/Egyptian option? Even at this late stage, my guess is that a rear-guard “war in terror” would not only help shift the focus away from the current political impasse but also win much-needed brownie points from our friends in the west. Posted by ComradeX| 18.04.2007 19:23

Frisky Larr  Villager

# 9 Omo Naija Sir, Let us set the records straight. It is unfair and weighs far too much in the direction of mischief to compare OBJ with Abacha to say the least of contending that Abacha was even better than OBJ. With all due respect, I disgaree outright. I will need a long-drawn essay to furnish an endless chain of arguments in support of my claim. That is not expedient here in the light of other labor commitments. As for the military, the problem is the absolute power that is highly apt to be misused. That is the reason the military is far more likely to be more destructive than helpful. A few examples like Rawlings and perhaps, Idiagbon have however, shown that a reasonable military establishment can be helpful even to the long-term advancement of democracy. ComradeX Sir, I guess the writing on the wall does not support your thesis. I think the issue of tenure elongation should have long been wiped off the agenda by now. OBJ's overriding interest now seems to be the epochal achievement of handing over power to another civilian government. This will immensely boost his international standing Sir! God bless Posted by Frisky Larr| 19.04.2007 02:20

Son of the Delta  Villager

# 10 This matter cannot be argued.Abacha is better than Obasanjo. Posted by Son of the Delta| 19.04.2007 06:12

---

The conversation continues in our forum. Click here to read all comments

---