When Flight lieutenant John Jerry Rawlings overthrew the Supreme Military Council of Ghana and installed the Armed Forces Revolutionary Council in June 1979, he was cheered and received with open arms by the Ghanaian populace. His bloody revolutionary reckoning that cost the lives of several leading political figures prompted speculations along all lines in Nigeria. The general tenor was that something like that could never happen in Nigeria. Rawlings barely ruled for three months and handed over power to an elected President Hilla Liman on September 24^th 1979. When he however observed from the sideline that things were not progressing the way he expected, he overthrew President Liman in a second coup on December 31^st 1981. From then on, he held the scepter of power till the year 2000 before he was succeeded by President John Kuffour. Within this period, Rawlings steered the boat of leadership with the help of technocrats and military men and adopted a largely centrist, market economy policy. The groundwork of economic growth and infrastructural advancement that Rawlings left behind was a showpiece for future developments. Today, the fear of this dangerous man becoming mischievous again is a thorn in the flesh of his successor, who cannot afford to under-perform.

It is worth noting that John Jerry Rawlings did not command popular support at the turn of the millennium when his tenure ended. Many of his reforms did not alter the prevailing poverty level. He was largely jeered and insulted by domestic observers and commentators while international economic and financial experts applauded the parameters they saw with lots of hope for the future.

Knowing fully well that many commentators and observers will rather stone me to death than hear me out in peace, I will take the risk of opining here that there are many ideological parallels between Olusegun Obasanjo and John Jerry Rawlings.

Even though I have never met this retired General Obasanjo or any of his policy advisers at any point in my life, it is rather a less daunting task to catch a glimpse of his mindset with a bit of goodwill and neutrality.

The reality that President Obasanjo reaped only partial success in all that he initially set out to achieve for Nigeria is probably one pain that may torment him to the end of his political career. The initial failed intention of sanitizing the energy sector with an action man Bola Ige and all the aftermath thereof is history today. The incompetent attempt to rejuvenate old power structures as the Vice President has now reported is one clear evidence that the President indeed knew where he sought to set the pace of development. The alleged lamentation before the Vice President thereafter (which, by the way, has never been denied), regretting not having accepted the Vice President’s initial suggestion on how best to solve the problem of power shortage underscores the incompetent execution of a project that was commenced with good intention.

Seeing how quickly eight years go by in two administrative terms that seem to fly with the wind, Obasanjo could read the writing on the wall. A lot has been achieved in terms of reform. Debts have been paid away and resources can now be concentrated on inward development. Banks have been restructured and foreign investors can now be confidently wooed etc. Unfortunately however, roads are in dire states, power and water supply remains a persistent problem. The idea of picking up the power grid project from zero commenced too late. Now that the relevant projects are on course, the Associated Press reported only last week that the final completion of projects in the energy sector alone is expected to take about twenty-five years. This may go through a gradual process of the phased launching of partial completions. Obviously succeeding governments will then claim credit for every partial launching that is realized in their term, in a project that was started by the Obasanjo administration.

On top of that is the fear that no one can predict the direction that a succeeding government may take. It may turn out to be more corrupt. It may turn out to be even more focused. If there is anything I may bet on however, it is the fact that if Olusegun Obasanjo could turn back time, he would never again handover power to any Shehu Shagari in 1979. Having helplessly watched the dismantling of his pre-1979 achievements by successive governments, the worst he could do today would be to refuse to act and impact the situation in any meaningful manner.

The power to overthrow a regime afterwards if things do not progress the way they are expected is no longer there since the status is now that of a retired and not active General. What Rawlings could do with ease, Obasanjo will now only be able to watch in helplessness.

That (in my mind) is one of several factors that seem to have prompted Obasanjo to seek a third term in office. A constitutional coup attempt that was to see his project through. In the process though, he seems to have insinuated that he alone and no one else can steer Nigeria to the harbor of affluence. For this insinuation alone, he was jeered and scorned particularly in the dream talk of an Internet columnist. For the purpose of comparison, a similar incident occurred in Hungary during the past summer. The tape of a private conversation between the Prime Minister of that country and some party henchmen surfaced in the media, in which the Prime Minister admitted having lied to the electorates to win the last election. This sparked off a violent demonstration lasting several weeks with protesters placing the parliament in Budapest under siege. The Prime Minister vehemently and stubbornly refused to resign claiming openly in a World Service broadcast that he is the only one that can steer his country through all the necessary economic reforms.

The truth though is that only Obasanjo can implement Obasanjo’s reforms in Nigeria much like only Gyurcsány can implement Gyurcsány’s reforms in Hungary.

Today, while Obasanjo is being loudly abused and desecrated at home in the news media and Internet, international financial and economic experts express general satisfaction at the economic parameters available to them showing a ray of hope in the long dark tunnel of untold human misery.

Politically though, the options at our disposal are anything but promising. To retain some leverage of sort on the continuation of his agenda, Obasanjo seems to have subjected his party to his tight grips. A risky venture that may place him at loggerheads with the President if his party’s candidate wins the presidential election.

Obasanjo has learnt the lesson today that ruling with the military uniform is far easier than maneuvering his ways through the labyrinth of constitutional democracy. While the judiciary and the legislature each have a say in the running of the country, none of them however, is given responsibility for failures in achievement. Then comes a fully unnecessary domestic battle with a rebellious Vice President, which keeps subjecting the President to series of judicial humiliations that are obviously largely politically motivated. Whichever way the President goes there are always hurdles to overcome. Yet he bears all the blames for the failure of the experiment.

In the aftermath of all these though, there are now voices openly hoping that the military will take control sooner than later. This may even be exacerbated if the Supreme Court ruling on the excesses of the Vice President adds one more humiliation to the President’s woes.

Not long ago, a Nigerian newspaper reported that disgruntled lawmakers have picked up the rejected legislation on the Third Term Agenda once again. Since they were not nominated for another term in their own parties, constitutional amendment may be the only way for them to extend their grip on political relevance. Alongside this, protagonists of impeachment are bracing themselves for a showdown in the intended malicious dumping of the combined team – President/Vice President.

Politicians are promoting their social and political relevance by arming banditry and hobby separatism in the Niger Delta. Others are vowing that there will be no elections if they are disqualified.

One pertinent question seeks to uncover what the future holds for Nigeria in the weeks and months ahead. How can all these disputes be contained and how can development be advanced in environments of this nature?

The most horrendous scenario may be history repeating itself in the like of the Sani Abacha led coup that overthrew Shehu Shagari shortly after commencing his second term in power. Should Nigeria be greeted by post-election chaos in the form of bloodshed and endless expectation of election results or even a vicious rejection thereof with protracted litigations, I foresee a President that may invoke his constitutional powers of declaring a national state of emergency and suspending all democratic institutions to restore law and order. Since the President has however vowed that he will not stay in Aso Rock beyond May 2007, handing over power to a military administration is a very viable and realistic option. Then and then alone can we truly hope that a Nigerian Rawlings will be borne with all the dire and positive consequences it may entail. 

Robot  Villager

# 1 When Flight lieutenant John Jerry Rawlings overthrew the Supreme Military Council of Ghana and in...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 09.03.2007 16:15

DoubleWahala  Villager

# 2 This is a seemingly thoughtful, if thought-provoking article. I must commend the author for marshalling his points in such an articulate, concise manner. However, there are certain presumptions I do not agree with. The major one being: The truth though is that only Obasanjo can implement Obasanjo’s reforms in Nigeria much like only Gyurcsány can implement Gyurcsány’s reforms in Hungary. Hungary is not Nigeria, and Obasanjo is not Gyurcsany. This is fatalistic thinking at its finest. Obasanjo is "70" years old. Are you seriously suggesting that if OBJ passes-on today, that Nigeria will die with him? Ditto for Jerry Rawlings and Ghana. I'm almost tempted to conclude that a kite is being flown here, and the tactics are pretty obvious: Greatly magnify the inherent dangers in not allowing OBJ to have his way, and then conclude by offering a way out; OBJ is the answer...voila!!! IMO, Nigeria is going through the birth-pangs of democracy. To suggest an outright abortion of the 'baby', because the 'mother' is undesirous of experiencing pain, is, to say the least, sacrilegious. DW Posted by DoubleWahala| 09.03.2007 20:19

Frisky Larr  Villager

# 3 DoubleWahala Sir, Your conclusions and deductions are so wrong that they cannot just be allowed to stand unchallenged. What you have done is demagogic acrobatics at its best Sir. You have simply turned over a simple statement to provide such far-fetched meanings that would drive any neutral mind to a freshman's course in Logic. Who said Hungary is Nigeria and who said Gyurcsány is Obasanjo? Please keep simple facts simple Sir. Only Obasanjo can implement Obasanjo's reforms and no other person. Else, they would not be Obasanjo's reforms. That does not imply in any way that Nigeria will fall if Obasanjo falls. "Greatly magnify the inherent dangers in not allowing OBJ to have his way, and then conclude by offering a way out; OBJ is the answer...voila!!!" Where did you read this conclusion Sir? That is simply putting words in a person's mouth. Of course OBJ is the answer to his own administration's program. That is the danger inherent in any attempt to remote-control any eventual Yar'Adua's administration. Only Yar'Adua will be able to implement Yar'Adua's programs not Obasanjo. Again, keep simple facts simple Sir! God bless! Posted by Frisky Larr| 10.03.2007 00:43

nero africanus  Villager

# 4 =DoubleWahala;160390> IMO, Nigeria is going through the birth-pangs of democracy. To suggest an outright abortion of the 'baby', because the 'mother' is undesirous of experiencing pain, is, to say the least, sacrilegious. DW lets abort the baby joh, the current political dispensation is an abiku/ogbanje child it will still die its like a house built on bad foundation it will still collapse , no matter the maintainance put in the democracy needs to be truncated so we shall start again cos we have a bunch of criminals as legislators and house members they need to have their ghana must go regularly if they dont then the executive is in trouble ( remember anambra state impeachment - the house members actually had the effrontery to to say they were impeaching the gov cos he was no longer bribing them) remember the house members who tried to get el rufai to bribe them. most of these people will be in power for a long time, no real change can ever come . in what kind of democracy does common touts like uba have relevance. even ibb never sprouted the kind of criminals that obj surrounds himself with i say terminate the baby , it is an evil child ........................................ Posted by nero africanus| 10.03.2007 01:16

Yankari  Villager

# 5 THe comparism of OBJ and JJ rawlings should end with the colour of their uniforms. JJ tackled all corrupt past Ghanian leaders friends or foe while OBJ is for starters part of these corrupt leaders and he's in bed with the others. Did you know that JJ had his nephew executed. while i'm not in support of this type of justice the point i make is this. he had a nephew in the army accused of rape and everyone seemed to know he was guilty. the case went as far as the supreme court and the chap still was able to influence things and get a not guilty verdict. when he was released JJ had him rearrested and had him shot!! i heard this from JJ during a BBC interview he did with stephen Sakur. What i want to highlight hereis the mans sense of Justice/Injustice compare that to OBJ who was at a rally during the week at ibadan and had the following to say about Adedibu."This man is a political guru that cannot be rivalled," "This man has been in politics for over fifty years and cannot change so we should manage him". "You should not rebuke a yoruba elder in public, if he does something wrong you should call him aside and tell him" This is someone who was found with 6 voter registration machines in his house! To those who believe anything good can come out of such an arrangement/attitude i say good luck! "Then comes a fully unnecessary domestic battle with a rebellious Vice President, which keeps subjecting the President to series of judicial humiliations that are obviously largely politically motivated. Whichever way the President goes there are always hurdles to overcome." Why blame Atiku for OBJ's judicial humiliations , if OBJ had listened to even the dogs on the streets of Abuja he would have known the limitations of the presidency rather than try to sack and disqualify Atiku, when he should have known he didnt have the power to. When Mbeki had issues with his vice was it not the courts that settled it and didnt everyone respect its decision. Will you in the same vein blame Ladoja, Obi or even Dariye now for the "judicial humiliation" of their reinstallment since OBJ supported their impeachment in the firstplace, not to mention the ongoing charade in Adamawa. Posted by Yankari| 10.03.2007 03:41

DoubleWahala  Villager

# 6 Frisky writes: Who said Hungary is Nigeria and who said Gyurcsány is Obasanjo? Please keep simple facts simple Sir. Only Obasanjo can implement Obasanjo's reforms and no other person. Else, they would not be Obasanjo's reforms. That does not imply in any way that Nigeria will fall if Obasanjo falls. Well, did you not write this?: For the purpose of comparison, a similar incident occurred in Hungary during the past summer. The tape of a private conversation between the Prime Minister of that country and some party henchmen surfaced in the media, in which the Prime Minister admitted having lied to the electorates to win the last election. This sparked off a violent demonstration lasting several weeks with protesters placing the parliament in Budapest under siege. The Prime Minister vehemently and stubbornly refused to resign claiming openly in a World Service broadcast that he is the only one that can steer his country through all the necessary economic reforms. What were you trying to imply, when you launched into that detailed account of what transpired in Hungary? You yourself, used the words "for the purpose of comparison". Furthermore, I do not accept that only OBJ can implement OBJ-reforms. If he did a good job, his reforms can be implemented by his successor. You cannot be arguing in all seriousness that in government, only the initiator of a reform can see a reform through? Whatever happened to the idea of continuity in govt? Finally, I dont even want to go into the Jerry Rawlings comparison. I believe Yankari has acquited himself rather adroitly, in that regard. DW Posted by DoubleWahala| 10.03.2007 04:53

Frisky Larr  Villager

# 7 Double Wahala Sir, Sometimes, it is no use entering into debates after posting an article. Unfortunately though, some opinions are so turned, tied and twisted that if they are left without response, they may be mistaken for the truth. Such is the case here. The issue at stake is a regime that is still in place. The initiator of a reform in that regime implements his own reforms. If a successor chooses to continue with the same reform, that is always a different issue. That was definitely, not our subject in this essay Sir. If you disagree with the premise, that is also a different issue. All your efforts Sir, are merely shifting and drifting away from the focus of the initial essay. Reference to several parallels between Rawlings and Obasanjo does not imply that they are both same par excellence. The points of reference in which they compare were clearly highlighted Sir. Yankari may disagree with the extent of the comparison. That is also his own right. Lets not stray too far from our subject for the purpose of demagogic vindication. Cheers Sir! Posted by Frisky Larr| 10.03.2007 07:39

DoubleWahala  Villager

# 8 @ Frisy Larr I noticed you're now silent on the Hungary comparison. :) Moving on....you write: The issue at stake is a regime that is still in place. The initiator of a reform in that regime implements his own reforms. If a successor chooses to continue with the same reform, that is always a different issue. It is not a different issue, because one of the major implications of your argument is that OBJ should be given enough time to implement his reforms. As we all know, OBJ's administration is supposed to end this May. Why should we be talking about reform implementation in an administration that is on the verge of exit? Therefore, the issue of continuity of government is not "a different issue", because it is related to the premise that only OBJ alone can implement his reforms. I am in fact refuting your argument by asserting that the existence of continuity in government decimates your argument. Funnily enough, it appears that you're the one beginning to stray away from your initial arguments. DW Posted by DoubleWahala| 10.03.2007 14:59

Free Publius  Villager

# 9 DW, You will find out, as many other Villagers have, that Frisky Larrimore has a really thin skin and cannot take any kind of criticism of his views, regardless of how objective, without crying foul. Why the man continues to submit articles to NVS beats me. Many of us have stopped commenting on ANY of his articles altogether. Free Publius Posted by Free Publius| 10.03.2007 17:24

Frisky Larr  Villager

# 10 Double Wahala Sir, Even though I accuse you of straying from the central issue, I owe you gratitude for being focused and not getting personal in your comments. Before answering your questions, let me comment briefly on the polemics of Free Pubius. Wherever I complain of foul language, Free Pubius accuses me of not being able to defend my position confidently. Whenever I react to someone's comment with my own views, he accuses me of being thin-skinned. What his agenda in this personal hostility is should be best known to him. He has a right to his views like the villagers he claims are thinking the way he does. I was silent on the comparison with Hungary because I believe the facts are self-explanatory enough. Comparison with Hungary does not mean that Nigeria is Hungary and Obasanjo Gyurcsány. The comparison ended with Gyurcsány's claim indicating that he alone was competent in steering his country to success much like OBJ was attributed the insinuation that he alone could rule Nigeria. That does not in any way translate into advocating OBJ as the solution to Nigeria's problems. It was merely viewing issues from his own perspective with no personal comment in support or against. One of the major implications of OBJ's view of issues as I see it is that he should be given more time to advance his program. That is not the implication of my own views Sir. In all, my personal comments were rare in the write-up. The comment that only OBJ can implement OBJ's reform seems to irritate you probably because a simple addendum was not there to make it more explicit. If I had added "...implement OBJ's reforms his own way", we'll probably not be arguing on that now. Since that was not the central issue, I didn't focus much on it. Moreover, another regime chosing to implement OBJ's reforms is based on the premise that such a regime does not have a reform program of its own. The essay bothered largely on a non-antagonistic view of OBJ's reasoning on some salient issues with an appraisal of the credible chances of any possible coup. Unlike the dear Free Pubius says, I do not object to you disagreeing with my views Sir as long as you are not unnecessarily hostile and personal. I always have the opportunity to disagree as well no matter how thin-skinned that may appear to Free Pubius and those he claims are sharing his views. God bless Sir! Posted by Frisky Larr| 11.03.2007 06:51

---

The conversation continues in our forum. Click here to read all comments

---